China's Thermal Power Generation Forecasting Based on Generalized Weng Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 960-961 ◽  
pp. 503-509
Author(s):  
Xi Bo Wang ◽  
Ya Lin Lei ◽  
Min Yao

Since the 21st century, China's power industry has been developing very quickly, and the generated electrical energy has been growing rapidly. Although nuclear power, wind power, solar power generations have been increased, thermal power generation still accounts for more than 80% of the total generating capacity. Thermal power provides an important material basis for the development of the national economy. Therefore, the prediction research on China's thermal power generation trend is becoming a topic of great interest. The fuel of thermal power generation-coal, is an exhaustible resource. Due to the exhaustible constraints the fuel, thermal power generation trend is bound to show a similar trend bell curve as the coal production trend, similar to a bell-shaped curve—a gradual increase to maximum output and then a short peak and a gradual decline. To get more accurate results of future thermal power generation, this paper applies the generalized Weng model to forecast China's thermal power generation peak and trend. The result indicted that the peak of China's thermal power generation appears in 2022 with generating capacity of 51,702 TWh. The generating capacity of thermal power will decrease gradually after 2022. Based on the results, the paper proposes some policy recommendations for the sustainable development of China's electrical energy. China should decrease the percentage of the capacity which comes from thermal generation and reduce the dependence on thermal power generation. Moreover, nuclear, hydraulic, wind and solar power should be developed before the thermal power generation peak.

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 24-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Akinyele ◽  
Olubayo Babatunde ◽  
Chukwuka Monyei ◽  
Lanre Olatomiwa ◽  
Adebunmi Okediji ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Alexey Dragunov ◽  
Eugene Saltanov ◽  
Igor Pioro ◽  
Pavel Kirillov ◽  
Romney Duffey

It is well known that the electrical-power generation is the key factor for advances in any other industries, agriculture and level of living. In general, electrical energy can be generated by: 1) non-renewable-energy sources such as coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear; and 2) renewable-energy sources such as hydro, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and marine. However, the main sources for electrical-energy generation are: 1) thermal - primary coal and secondary natural gas; 2) “large” hydro and 3) nuclear. The rest of the energy sources might have visible impact just in some countries. Modern advanced thermal power plants have reached very high thermal efficiencies (55–62%). In spite of that they are still the largest emitters of carbon dioxide into atmosphere. Due to that, reliable non-fossil-fuel energy generation, such as nuclear power, becomes more and more attractive. However, current Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are way behind by thermal efficiency (30–42%) compared to that of advanced thermal power plants. Therefore, it is important to consider various ways to enhance thermal efficiency of NPPs. The paper presents comparison of thermodynamic cycles and layouts of modern NPPs and discusses ways to improve their thermal efficiencies.


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