From the Business Cycle to the Output Cycle: Predicting South African Economic Activity

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-133
Author(s):  
C. Vermeulen ◽  
F. Joubert ◽  
A. Bosch ◽  
J. Rossouw
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
The Business Cycle

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Final Part ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
The Business Cycle

Chapter 1 contains an overview of the book. Part I introduces key concepts, definitions, and stylized facts regarding long–run economic growth and stock returns.Part II analyses the relation between economic growth and stock returns in the long run. Part III examines the shorter-horizon relation between economic growth and stock returns: the relation over the business cycle. Part IV explains how to make reasonable projections for economic activity, both for the short and the long run. Part V deals with expected future stock returns. The final part, a short one including one chapter only, explains how one can use the insights from the book when making investments.

scholarly journals Labor Market Indicator for Colombia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia ◽  
Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano ◽  
Mario A. Ramos-Veloza
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Market Indicator

Although the unemployment rate is traditionally used to diagnose the current state of the labor market, this indicator does not reflect the existence of asymmetries, mobility costs, and rigidities which impede labor to freely flow over the business cycle. Thus, to get a better portrait of the momentum, we construct the Labor Market Indicator (LMI) focusing on the cyclical similarities of eighteen time series from the Colombian household, industrial, and opinion surveys between 2001 and 2019. Our indicator summarizes the growth cycle of the labor market and its evolution is closely related to the output and unemployment GAP. This indicator is useful for policy analysis as it is useful to forecast headline inflation, it also complements the diagnosis of the current momentum of the labor market, the general economic activity, and the characterization of economic phases and turning points.

scholarly journals Predicting turning points in the South African economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elna Moolman
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Business Cycle

Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.

Is commercial bank lending in South Africa procyclical?

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-226
Author(s):  
Foluso Abioye Akinsola ◽  
Sylvanus Ikhide
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the relationship between commercial bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. This paper attempts to know whether commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical.Design/methodology/approachThe model assumed that the lending behaviour is related to the business cycle. In this study, vector error correction model (VECM) is used to capture the relationship between bank lending and business cycle to accurately elicit the macroeconomic long-run relationship between business cycle and bank lending, as some banks might slow down bank lending due to some idiosyncratic factors that are not related to the downturn in the economy. This paper uses data from South African Reserve Bank for the period of 1990-2015 using VECM to understand the extent to which business cycle fluctuation can affect credit crunch in the financial system. The Johansen cointegration approach is used to ascertain whether there is indeed a long-run co-movement between credit growth and business cycle.FindingsResults from the VECM show that there are significant linkages among the variables, especially between credit to gross domestic product (GDP) and business cycle. The influence of business cycle is seen vividly after a period of four to five years, where business cycle explains 20 per cent of the variation in the credit to GDP. South African banks tend to change their lending behaviour during upturns and downturns. This result further confirms the assertion in theory that credit follows business cycle and can amplify credit crunch. The result shows that in the long run, fluctuations in the business cycle can influence the credit growth in South Africa.Research limitations/implicationsThe impulse analysis result shows that the impact of business cycle shock is very persistent and lasting. This also demonstrates that the shocks to the business cycle result have a persistent and long-lasting impact on credit. This study finds that commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. It is suggested that the South African economy needs forward-looking policies that will mitigate the flow of credit to the real sector and at the same time ensure financial stability.Originality/valueMost research papers rarely distinguish between the demand side and supply side of credit procyclicality. This report is presented to develop an econometric model that will examine demand side procyclicality. This study adopts more realistic and novel methods that will help in explaining the relationship between bank lending and business cycle in South Africa, especially after the global financial crisis. This report is presented with a concise and detailed analysis and interpretation.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 246-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis J Berge ◽  
Óscar Jordá
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Business Cycle Dating

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate three central aspects of this chronology. How skillful is the Dating Committee when classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? Which indices of economic conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And which indicators best predict future turning points, and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail using methods specifically designed to assess classification ability. In the process, we clarify several important features of the business cycle. (JEL C82, E32)

Non-residential real estate and economic activity: the case of Greece

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-55
Author(s):  
Ilias Lekkos ◽  
Irini Staggel ◽  
Konstantinos Kefalas ◽  
Paraskevi Vlachou
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Significant Degree ◽  
Systematic Research ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
The Business Cycle

Purpose – The aim of the paper is to discuss developments in non-residential real estate in Greece. Design/methodology/approach – Given the lack of existing literature, the authors start by discussing at length the data sources available, and analyzing the stylized facts of non-residential real estate activity in Greece. Finally, the authors examine the degree of covariation (using the index of concordance methodology) between non-residential real estate and the business cycle. Findings – The results indicate that the structure of non-residential sector is highly fragmented into various sub-categories and at the initial stages of its developments, it was strongly affected by the preparations for the 2004 Athens Olympic Games. Finally, despite its small share of total GDP, non-residential real estate exhibits a significant degree of covariation with the business cycle. Practical implications – The extracted information may be a useful resource for those interested in the developments in non-residential real estate in Greece and the covariation of key variables with the business cycle. Originality/value – The paper constitutes a systematic research approach for the role of non-residential real estate in the Greek economic activity.

scholarly journals Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Gehringer ◽  
Thomas Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Economic Time ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Cycle Indicator

AbstractThis paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, the Business Cycle Indicator grasps the development of the broader economic activity and has several advantages over a business cycle assessment based on quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product.

scholarly journals USA business cycle identification – a comparative study of chosen methods

2007 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 125-132
Author(s):  
Jitka Poměnková
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Kernel Smoothing ◽  
Nonparametric Method ◽  
Historical Events ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Business Cycle

Presented paper deals with comparison of chosen methods used for the business cycle identification. With respect to this aim nonparametric method (kernel smoothing) and Box-Jenkins methodology were used. This comparison is performed by application on economic activity in USA 1960/Q01–2007/Q01. The residuals are tested by Box-Pierce test. Identified trend is discussed with chosen historical events which affect business cycle in the USA.

Business-cycle fluctuations in economic activity

2021 ◽  
pp. 105-125
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Two Phases

This chapter explains what the business cycle is and what causes business-cycle fluctuations. We call fluctuations in economic activity around the long-term growth trend ‘the business cycle’. The business cycle consists of two phases. The first is a period of strong economic activity. The second, following the first, is a period of weak economic activity. We call the first phase of the business cycle an ‘expansion’ and the second phase a ‘contraction’ or ‘recession’. The chapter explains what causes business cycles, and examines the empirical evidence on the lengths and strengths of the typical business cycle. It finds that expansions typically last longer than recessions. The chapter also shows that the length of expansions has increased during recent decades.

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