Designing Medical Tests: The Other Side of Bayes’ Theorem

AbstractA new method is presented for using known ordering or other relationships between14C samples to reduce14C dating uncertainty. The order of sample formation is often known from, for example, stratigraphic superposition, dendrochronology, or crosscutting field relations. Constraints such as a minimum time between dates and limits from historical information are also readily included. Dendrochronologically calibrated calendric date histograms initially represent each date. The method uses Bayes theorem and the relational constraints to upweight date ranges in each date distribution consistent with the other date distributions and the constraints, and downweight unlikely portions. The reweighted date distributions retain all dating possibilities present in the initial calibrated date distributions, but each date in the result now reflects the extra information such as ordering supplied through the constraints. In addition, one may add information incrementally, and thus analyze systematically its effect on all the date distributions. Thus, the method can be used to assess the consistency of the quantitative data at hand. The Bayesian approach also uses the empirical calibrated date distributions directly, so information is not lost prematurely by summarized dates to a mean and variance or "confidence intervals." The approach is illustrated with data from two densely sampled paleoseismic sites on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. An average reduction in14C date distribution variance of 59% is achieved using ordering information alone, and 85% is achieved by also applying sedimentation rate constraints and historical information.

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Market Prices of Risk with Diverse Beliefs, Learning, and Catastrophes

The American Economic Review ◽

10.1257/aer.102.3.141 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 102 (3) ◽

pp. 141-146 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Timothy Cogley ◽

Thomas J Sargent ◽

Viktor Tsyrennikov

Keyword(s):

Bayes Theorem ◽

The Other ◽

Information Flows ◽

Complete Markets ◽

Learning Dynamics ◽

Market Prices ◽

Market Structures ◽

The Law ◽

State Learning

We compare market prices of risk in economies with identical patterns of endowments, priors, and information flows, but two different market structures, one with complete markets, another in which consumers can trade only a single risk-free bond. We study how opportunities to speculate, uncommon priors, and learning affect market prices of risk. Two types of consumers have diverse beliefs about the law of motion for a random exogenous endowment. One type knows the true law of motion while the other type learns about it via Bayes' theorem. Less-well-informed consumers are pessimistic, initially overestimating the probability of a catastrophic state. Learning dynamics and the wealth dynamics that they drive contribute to differences in evolutions of market prices of risk across market structures.

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PENERAPAN METODE TEOREMA BAYES UNTUK MENDETEKSI HAMA PADA TANAMAN PADI MAYAS KALIMANTAN TIMUR

SINTECH (Science and Information Technology) Journal ◽

10.31598/sintechjournal.v4i2.919 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 155-162

Author(s):

Novianti Puspitasari ◽

Hamdani Hamdani ◽

Heliza Hatta ◽

Anindita Septiarini ◽

Sumaini Sumaini

Keyword(s):

Expert System ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Rice Plant ◽

Control Method ◽

Bayes Theorem ◽

Research Data ◽

Taste Quality ◽

The Other ◽

Test Cases ◽

Nutritional Needs

The community very much needs the nutritional needs of food during a pandemic. One source of nutrition that can be obtained is rice or rice derived from rice plants. Mayas rice is a rice plant with advantages in terms of high taste quality and components of certain physiological functions that are beneficial to health. However, Mayas rice has quite a lot of pest attacks, thus reducing agricultural production. On the other hand, the knowledge possessed by the community regarding pests in Mayas rice is still very minimal. Hence, people find it difficult to determine the proper pest control method. Bayes theorem applied in an expert system can be a solution to diagnose the types of pests that attack Mayas rice. The research data is a knowledge base that contains 32 symptoms that appear and 10 types of pests that attack Mayas rice. The results showed that the percentage of certainty in the diagnosis of the types of pests that pounded Mayas rice was based on the symptoms given by the user. The level of testing using ten test cases displays the results of an expert system for identifying types of pests that attack Mayas rice which is suitable for use with a percentage of 90%.

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The Use of Drug Testing in Monitoring the Impaired Medical Professional

Journal of Medical Regulation ◽

10.30770/2572-1852-91.4.13 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 91 (4) ◽

pp. 13-16

Author(s):

Steven I. Altchuler

Keyword(s):

Major Part ◽

Drug Testing ◽

False Negative ◽

Medical Professional ◽

The Other ◽

Medical Professionals ◽

Technical Aspects ◽

Medical Tests ◽

Drug Test

ABSTRACT Drug testing is considered a major part of monitoring medical professionals disciplined by licensing boards. Drug testing can serve two different roles when used by a licensee; the other to help the licensee maintain abstinence. The results of the drug tests themselves can also be confounding. As with all medical tests, a drug test may be accurate or yield a false positive or a false negative. For example, a board may learn from other sources a licensee is using drugs, but a drug test is negative. A licensee may insist they are not using drugs, but a drug test is positive. We discuss the role of drug testing in helping boards and the technical aspects of testing, to help boards decide when to use drug tests and how to interpret them.

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K v K (Relocation: Shared Care Arrangement) [2011] EWCA Civ 793

The Denning Law Journal ◽

10.5750/dlj.v24i1.398 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 24 (1) ◽

pp. 177-189

Author(s):

Judith Bray

Keyword(s):

House Of Representatives ◽

Eleventh Century ◽

Family Law ◽

Shared Care ◽

The Other ◽

Care Arrangement ◽

Medical Tests ◽

Wisdom Of Solomon ◽

Easy Answer ◽

Other Woman

THE WISDOM OF SOLOMON: RELOCATION ON RELATIONSHIP BREAKDOWNSolomon, the eleventh century King of Israel, was credited with great wisdom and sense. He was asked to decide which of two women was the mother of a child. Obviously in those days medical tests were not available to decide the issue. Solomon declared that the only solution would be to divide the child in two. The true mother, realising the awful consequences of this decision, came forward and declared that the other woman should take the child. Solomon knew immediately that she was the true mother and accordingly the child was given to her. The decision of a court with regard to relocation is reminiscent of the decision which faced Solomon. It is one of the most difficult of family law where decisions are never straightforward. Speaking before a committee at the House of Representatives in Australia, Diana Bryant stated:“Relocation cases are the hardest cases that the court does... If you read the judgments in almost every judgement… you will see the comment that these cases are heart-wrenching, they are difficult and they do not allow for an easy answer. Internationally, they pose exactly the same problems as they pose in Australia. I have heard them described as cases which pose a dilemma rather than a problem. A problem can be solved: a dilemma is insoluble…”

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Investigative advising: a job for Bayes

10.32920/14638728 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jared C. Allen

Keyword(s):

Decision Support ◽

Bayes Theorem ◽

The Other ◽

Bayesian Approaches ◽

Bayesian Paradigm ◽

Rate Information ◽

Statistical Approaches ◽

To Come ◽

The Bayesian Approach ◽

Investigative Advising

Background: Bayesian approaches to police decision support offer an improvement upon more commonly used statistical approaches. Common approaches to case decision support often involve using frequencies from cases similar to the case under consideration to come to an isolated likelihood that a given suspect either a) committed the crime or b) has a given characteristic or set of characteristics. The Bayesian approach, in contrast, offers formally contextualized estimates and utilizes the formal logic desired by investigators. Findings: Bayes’ theorem incorporates the isolated likelihood as one element of a three-part equation, the other parts being 1) what was known generally about the variables in the case prior to the case occurring (the scientific-theoretical priors) and 2) the relevant base rate information that contextualizes the evidence obtained (the event context). These elements are precisely the domain of decision support specialists (investigative advisers), and the Bayesian paradigm is uniquely apt for combining them into contextualized estimates for decision support. Conclusions: By formally combining the relevant knowledge, context, and likelihood, Bayes’ theorem can improve the logic, accuracy, and relevance of decision support statements.

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Investigative advising: a job for Bayes

10.32920/14638728.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jared C. Allen

Keyword(s):

Decision Support ◽

Bayes Theorem ◽

The Other ◽

Bayesian Approaches ◽

Bayesian Paradigm ◽

Rate Information ◽

Statistical Approaches ◽

To Come ◽

The Bayesian Approach ◽

Investigative Advising

Background: Bayesian approaches to police decision support offer an improvement upon more commonly used statistical approaches. Common approaches to case decision support often involve using frequencies from cases similar to the case under consideration to come to an isolated likelihood that a given suspect either a) committed the crime or b) has a given characteristic or set of characteristics. The Bayesian approach, in contrast, offers formally contextualized estimates and utilizes the formal logic desired by investigators. Findings: Bayes’ theorem incorporates the isolated likelihood as one element of a three-part equation, the other parts being 1) what was known generally about the variables in the case prior to the case occurring (the scientific-theoretical priors) and 2) the relevant base rate information that contextualizes the evidence obtained (the event context). These elements are precisely the domain of decision support specialists (investigative advisers), and the Bayesian paradigm is uniquely apt for combining them into contextualized estimates for decision support. Conclusions: By formally combining the relevant knowledge, context, and likelihood, Bayes’ theorem can improve the logic, accuracy, and relevance of decision support statements.

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Stromatoporoids from the Famennian (Devonian) Wabamun Formation, Normandville oilfield, north–central Alberta, Canada

Journal of Paleontology ◽

10.1017/s0022336000018321 ◽

1988 ◽

Vol 62 (03) ◽

pp. 411-419 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Colin W. Stearn

Keyword(s):

Patch Reef ◽

Abundant Species ◽

The Other ◽

North Central ◽

Biotic Crisis

Stromatoporoids are the principal framebuilding organisms in the patch reef that is part of the reservoir of the Normandville field. The reef is 10 m thick and 1.5 km2in area and demonstrates that stromatoporoids retained their ability to build reefal edifices into Famennian time despite the biotic crisis at the close of Frasnian time. The fauna is dominated by labechiids but includes three non-labechiid species. The most abundant species isStylostroma sinense(Dong) butLabechia palliseriStearn is also common. Both these species are highly variable and are described in terms of multiple phases that occur in a single skeleton. The other species described areClathrostromacf.C. jukkenseYavorsky,Gerronostromasp. (a columnar species), andStromatoporasp. The fauna belongs in Famennian/Strunian assemblage 2 as defined by Stearn et al. (1988).

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D. The Line Spectrum of Pulsating Variable Stars

Symposium - International Astronomical Union ◽

10.1017/s0074180900019021 ◽

1967 ◽

Vol 28 ◽

pp. 207-244

Author(s):

R. P. Kraft

Keyword(s):

Variable Stars ◽

The Other ◽

Line Spectrum ◽

Afternoon Session ◽

Empirical Information ◽

Pulsating Variable Stars ◽

Almost Continuous ◽

Informal Approach

(Ed. note:Encouraged by the success of the more informal approach in Christy's presentation, we tried an even more extreme experiment in this session, I-D. In essence, Kraft held the floor continuously all morning, and for the hour and a half afternoon session, serving as a combined Summary-Introductory speaker and a marathon-moderator of a running discussion on the line spectrum of cepheids. There was almost continuous interruption of his presentation; and most points raised from the floor were followed through in detail, no matter how digressive to the main presentation. This approach turned out to be much too extreme. It is wearing on the speaker, and the other members of the symposium feel more like an audience and less like participants in a dissective discussion. Because Kraft presented a compendious collection of empirical information, and, based on it, an exceedingly novel series of suggestions on the cepheid problem, these defects were probably aggravated by the first and alleviated by the second. I am much indebted to Kraft for working with me on a preliminary editing, to try to delete the side-excursions and to retain coherence about the main points. As usual, however, all responsibility for defects in final editing is wholly my own.)

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C. The Continuous Spectrum of Pulsating Variable Stars

Symposium - International Astronomical Union ◽

10.1017/s007418090001901x ◽

1967 ◽

Vol 28 ◽

pp. 177-206

Author(s):

J. B. Oke ◽

C. A. Whitney

Keyword(s):

Continuous Spectrum ◽

Variable Stars ◽

Velocity Fields ◽

The Other ◽

Line Spectrum ◽

Direct Information ◽

Thermodynamic Structure ◽

Diagnostic Interpretation ◽

Pulsating Variable Stars ◽

The Continuum

Pecker:The topic to be considered today is the continuous spectrum of certain stars, whose variability we attribute to a pulsation of some part of their structure. Obviously, this continuous spectrum provides a test of the pulsation theory to the extent that the continuum is completely and accurately observed and that we can analyse it to infer the structure of the star producing it. The continuum is one of the two possible spectral observations; the other is the line spectrum. It is obvious that from studies of the continuum alone, we obtain no direct information on the velocity fields in the star. We obtain information only on the thermodynamic structure of the photospheric layers of these stars–the photospheric layers being defined as those from which the observed continuum directly arises. So the problems arising in a study of the continuum are of two general kinds: completeness of observation, and adequacy of diagnostic interpretation. I will make a few comments on these, then turn the meeting over to Oke and Whitney.

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