scholarly journals Ebola virus disease outbreak in Korea: use of a mathematical model and stochastic simulation to estimate risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. e2019048
Author(s):  
Youngsuk Ko ◽  
Seok-Min Lee ◽  
Soyoung Kim ◽  
Moran Ki ◽  
Eunok Jung
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Secondary Infection ◽  
Median Number ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
First Case ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The Government

OBJECTIVES: According to the World Health Organization, there have been frequent reports of Ebola virus disease (EVD) since the 2014 EVD pandemic in West Africa. We aim to estimate the outbreak scale when an EVD infected person arrives in Korea.METHODS: Western Africa EVD epidemic mathematical model SEIJR or SEIJQR was modified to create a Korean EVD outbreak model. The expected number of EVD patients and outbreak duration were calculated by stochastic simulation under the scenarios of Best case, Diagnosis delay, and Case missing.RESULTS: The 2,000 trials of stochastic simulation for each scenario demonstrated the following results: The possible median number of patients is 2 and the estimated maximum number is 11 when the government intervention is proceeded immediately right after the first EVD case is confirmed. With a 6-day delay in diagnosis of the first case, the median number of patients becomes 7, and the maximum, 20. If the first case is missed and the government intervention is not activated until 2 cases of secondary infection occur, the median number of patients is estimated at 15, and the maximum, at 35.CONCLUSIONS: Timely and rigorous diagnosis is important to reduce the spreading scale of infection when a new communicable disease is inflowed into Korea. Moreover, it is imperative to strengthen the local surveillance system and diagnostic protocols to avoid missing cases of secondary infection.

Mathematical Model for the Ebola Virus Disease

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 190-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Akgül ◽  
Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw ◽  
Wali H. Mohammed
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease

scholarly journals Infectious Disease Physician Assessment of Hospital Preparedness for Ebola Virus Disease

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip M. Polgreen ◽  
Scott Santibanez ◽  
Lisa M. Koonin ◽  
Mark E. Rupp ◽  
Susan E. Beekmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
United States ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Teaching Hospitals ◽  
Emerging Infections ◽  
First Case ◽  
Hospital Preparedness

Abstract Background.  The first case of Ebola diagnosed in the United States and subsequent cases among 2 healthcare workers caring for that patient highlighted the importance of hospital preparedness in caring for Ebola patients. Methods.  From October 21, 2014 to November 11, 2014, infectious disease physicians who are part of the Emerging Infections Network (EIN) were surveyed about current Ebola preparedness at their institutions. Results.  Of 1566 EIN physician members, 869 (55.5%) responded to this survey. Almost all institutions represented in this survey showed a substantial degree of preparation for the management of patients with suspected and confirmed Ebola virus disease. Despite concerns regarding shortages of personal protective equipment, approximately two thirds of all respondents reported that their facilities had sufficient and ready availability of hoods, full body coveralls, and fluid-resistant or impermeable aprons. The majority of respondents indicated preference for transfer of Ebola patients to specialized treatment centers rather than caring for them locally. In general, we found that larger hospitals and teaching hospitals reported higher levels of preparedness. Conclusions.  Prior to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's plan for a tiered approach that identified specific roles for frontline, assessment, and designated treatment facilities, our query of infectious disease physicians suggested that healthcare facilities across the United States were making preparations for screening, diagnosis, and treatment of Ebola patients. Nevertheless, respondents from some hospitals indicated that they were relatively unprepared.

Prevention and nursing care in the first case of Ebola virus disease contracted outside Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-131
Author(s):  
Alicia Cerón-Serrano ◽  
Rafael Jiménez-Castellano ◽  
Ana María Gómez-Campos
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Care ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
First Case

The First Case of Ebola Virus Disease Acquired outside Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 371 (25) ◽  
pp. 2439-2440 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Manuel Parra ◽  
Octavio J. Salmerón ◽  
María Velasco
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
First Case

scholarly journals Managing enduring public health emergencies such as COVID-19: lessons from Uganda Red Cross Society’s Ebola virus disease response operation

BMJ Leader ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 113-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Geiger ◽  
Lisa Harborth ◽  
Alex Mugyisha
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Continuous Training ◽  
Disease Response ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
The Government

BackgroundIn this piece, we translate insights from our study of routine coordination in the Ebola virus disease response operation by Uganda Red Cross Society (URCS) for managing long-lasting public health emergencies. We further show how these lessons are relevant to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Commonly, emergency response organisations, like the URCS or hospitals, are ill equipped to handle longer lasting emergencies. These emergencies require special measures that combine ad-hoc action, continuous awareness over longer time periods, and the collaboration of multiple actors such as the government, public health institutions and other non-governmental organisations (NGOs).ResultsFrom our study we can translate seven lessons learnt which are important for managing long-term public health emergencies such as pandemics: (1) centralised pooling and management of resources; (2) engagement of local communities in response efforts; (3) the need to continuously recruit and train staff; (4) the establishment of adjusted working patterns to prevent staff exhaustion; (5) cooperation of involved agencies with security for enforcing measures; (6) the revision of funding frameworks; and (7) the use of global positioning system (GPS) data to identify population movement patterns.ConclusionAlthough still speculative at this stage, we apply these lessons to the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We argue that immediate action in the areas of resource pooling and control over critical resources, in the engagement of trusted and respected individuals in risk communication, in the continuous training and hiring of new staff, and in the appropriation of GPS tracking data is called for in managing SARS-CoV-2 by policy makers, NGOs and other involved agencies.

scholarly journals Interpretation of Negative Molecular Test Results in Patients With Suspected or Confirmed Ebola Virus Disease: Report of Two Cases

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey K. Edwards ◽  
Christian Kleine ◽  
Vincent Munster ◽  
Ruggero Giuliani ◽  
Moses Massaquoi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Qrt Pcr ◽  
Negative Results ◽  
First Case ◽  
False Negative Results ◽  
Late Stages

Abstract Quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) is the most sensitive quantitative diagnostic assay for detection of Ebola virus in multiple body fluids. Despite the strengths of this assay, we present 2 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and highlight the potential for false-negative results during the early and late stages of EVD. The first case emphasizes the low negative-predictive value of qRT-PCR during incubation and the early febrile stage of EVD, and the second case emphasizes the potential for false-negative results during recovery and late neurologic complications of EVD. Careful interpretation of test results are needed to guide difficult admission and discharge decisions in suspected or confirmed EVD.

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