scholarly journals Study on Measuring Methods of Real Estate Speculative Bubble

2009 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 43-46
Author(s):  
Yifei Lai ◽  
Huawei Xu ◽  
Junping Jia
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Speculative Bubble ◽  
Measuring Methods

scholarly journals REAL ESTATE MARKET OF A BRAZILIAN METROPOLIS: SUSTAINED GROWTH OR SPECULATIVE BUBBLE?

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-236
Author(s):  
RONALDO LAMOUNIER LOCATELLI ◽  
HAROLDO MARCIO INÊS ◽  
JOSÉ EDSON LARA ◽  
FERNANDO TADEU PONGELUPE NOGUEIRA
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Speculative Bubble ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Property Prices

ABSTRACT Purpose: To analyze the real estate sector of a Brazilian metropolis in the recent period of great valuation of the asset in the country and to investigate if there are signs of a speculative bubble in this market. Originality/gap/relevance/implications: This article presents a version of the Case-Shiller Index, which describes the evolution of the relationship between house prices and rental prices and uses models in order to identify if the rise in property prices rests on good economic fundamentals. Key methodological aspects: The approach is quantitative and involves the construction of the price-rent index, unit root test with an instrument that allows structural break with trend (Innovation Outlier Model) and analysis of cointegration using estimates of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Summary of the results: The results do not favor the interpretation that the real estate market rests on solid economic fundamentals. On the contrary, the evolution of the price-rent index and the lack of causal relationship of rents to prices towards long-term equilibrium are suggestive of the existence of a speculative bubble. Key considerations/conclusions: The results support authors who are critical to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and suggest that the relative increase in property prices stems only from the belief that their selling price will be higher in the future. It is therefore foreseeable a decrease of real prices of housings, with equity losses for the participants in that market.

scholarly journals Is There A Periodically Collapsing Bubble In The Indian Real Estate Market?

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay Kumar Vishwakarma
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Speculative Bubble ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Conventional Tests ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

The study finds evidence in favor of Evans (1991) definition of periodically collapsing speculative bubbles in the Indian real estate market when the market is tested for a bubble by examining data from May 1, 2009, to May 30, 2012. Using consistent momentum threshold auto regressive (MTAR) model developed by Enders and Siklos (2001) with Chans (1993) methodology, this study finds evidence of co-integration as well as asymmetric adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, which is evidence of a periodically collapsing positive speculative bubble. However, except for the residuals-augmented DickeyFuller (RADF) test, none of the conventional tests such as the augmented DickeyFuller and the PhillipsPerron tests find evidence of a bubble.

scholarly journals Speculative Bubbles and their Components on the Real Estate Market–A Preliminary Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Brzezicka
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Speculative Bubble ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Various speculative phenomena arise on the real estate market, and the speculative bubble (SB) is one of the best known events of the type. Speculative bubbles still have many unidentified components, and are characterized by high research potential due to the multiple factors responsible for bubble creation, as well as considerable practical implications on account of the multivariate results describing the real estate market (REM) and its surroundings. Speculative price bubbles are associated mainly with changes in price trends on the real estate market. A thorough analysis of a speculative bubble over time demonstrates trend changes also in other research categories which constitute bubble components and elements of the real estate market and its surroundings. The above criteria were used to identify a new research category termed speculative bubble components (SBC). The research hypothesis states that speculative bubbles should be analyzed based not only on prices, but also on bubble components. The objectives of this study were to: 1) classify speculative phenomena on the REM, 2) describe a speculative bubble based on market prices and SBC, and 3) present the results of a study evaluating speculative bubble components in relation to market prices, and discuss the trajectories of the analyzed research categories over time. This study attempts to determine whether a speculative bubble can be analyzed in view of its components, and which elements of the real estate market and its surroundings can be classified as SBC. Attempts were also made to identify a research method that supports the identification of SBC variables and classification of variables into groups, and explains market prices in view of the identified variables and groups. The research relies on a review of literature in the theoretical part and statistical analyses in the experimental part. The results will broaden our knowledge of the mechanisms behind speculative phenomena on the real estate market.

Real Estate Fraud

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Bradley
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate

Overcoming stereotypes in leasing

2017 ◽  
pp. 136-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Gazman
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Critical Assessment ◽  
Variable Character ◽  
New Perspective

If we want securitization to become one of the main channels to attract funding in leasing activity, as the Bank of Russia predicts, one needs to revise some stereotypes. Relying on foreign and domestic research, the author gives a critical assessment of the postulate of the need for uniformity of securitized assets; proves that real estate, contrary to the traditional approach, rather than equipment and transport, prevails in securitization transactions, and explains why this happens. The article presents a new perspective on the behavior of issu- ers concerning the timing of securities circulation; considers feasibility approach to the calculation of variable character of leverage in leasing; explains pro and contra of evaluating the leasing market based on the volume of the portfolio of contracts; reveals the validity of ratings of bonds issued in the course of secu- ritization of leasing assets.

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