scholarly journals Speculative Bubbles and their Components on the Real Estate Market–A Preliminary Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Brzezicka
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Speculative Bubble ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Various speculative phenomena arise on the real estate market, and the speculative bubble (SB) is one of the best known events of the type. Speculative bubbles still have many unidentified components, and are characterized by high research potential due to the multiple factors responsible for bubble creation, as well as considerable practical implications on account of the multivariate results describing the real estate market (REM) and its surroundings. Speculative price bubbles are associated mainly with changes in price trends on the real estate market. A thorough analysis of a speculative bubble over time demonstrates trend changes also in other research categories which constitute bubble components and elements of the real estate market and its surroundings. The above criteria were used to identify a new research category termed speculative bubble components (SBC). The research hypothesis states that speculative bubbles should be analyzed based not only on prices, but also on bubble components. The objectives of this study were to: 1) classify speculative phenomena on the REM, 2) describe a speculative bubble based on market prices and SBC, and 3) present the results of a study evaluating speculative bubble components in relation to market prices, and discuss the trajectories of the analyzed research categories over time. This study attempts to determine whether a speculative bubble can be analyzed in view of its components, and which elements of the real estate market and its surroundings can be classified as SBC. Attempts were also made to identify a research method that supports the identification of SBC variables and classification of variables into groups, and explains market prices in view of the identified variables and groups. The research relies on a review of literature in the theoretical part and statistical analyses in the experimental part. The results will broaden our knowledge of the mechanisms behind speculative phenomena on the real estate market.

scholarly journals Price Bubble In The Real Estate Market - Behavioral Aspects

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Brzezicka ◽  
Radosław Wisniewski
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Herd Behavior ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubble ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Behavioral Aspects

Abstract The article pertains to the topic of speculative price bubbles which arise in the real estate market. The individual parts of the article deal with the connection between the price bubble in the American real estate market and the global economic crisis, defining the concept of a price bubble with regard to the behaviors of market participants, providing a description of the environment generating price bubbles, and systematizing the reasons behind the formation of price bubbles. The analysis of behavioral aspects accompanying the existence of a price bubble is a key issue. The assumed considerations indicate that the housing price bubble could not exist in the real estate market (REM) if its formation was not accompanied by behavioral aspects. These aspects include, among others, giving in to temptations and emotions, limited rationalism, herd behavior, and seeking to make profits in a short amount of time at the expense of long-term negative consequences. The nature of these deliberations is theoretical.

scholarly journals Price Bubbles in the Real Estate Markets - Analysis and Prediction

2022 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 292-303
Author(s):  
Paweł Dec ◽  
Gabriel Główka ◽  
Piotr Masiukiewicz
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Government

The article concerns the issue of price bubbles on the markets, with particular emphasis on the specificity of the real estate market. Up till now, more than a decade after the subprime crisis, there is no accurate enough method to predict price movements, their culmination and, eventually, the burst of price and speculative bubbles on the markets. Hence, the main goal of the article is to present the possibility of early detection of price bubbles and their consequences from the point of view of the surveyed managers. The following research hypothesis was verified: price bubbles on the real estate market cannot be excluded, therefore constant monitoring and predictive analytics of this market are needed. In addition to standard research methods (desk research or statistical analysis), the authors conducted their own survey on a group of randomly selected managers from Portugal and Poland in the context of their attitude to crises and price bubbles. The obtained results allowed us to conclude that managers in both analysed countries are different relating the effects of price bubbles to the activities of their own companies but are similar (about 40% of respondents) expecting quick detection and deactivation of emerging bubbles by the government or by central bank. Nearly 40% of Polish and Portuguese managers claimed that the consequences of crises must include an increased responsibility of managers for their decisions, especially those leading to failures.

scholarly journals People and the City: Urban Fragility and the Real Estate-Scape in a Neighborhood of Catania, Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Rosa Trovato ◽  
Claudia Clienti ◽  
Salvatore Giuffrida
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Civil Economy

Urban/social fragility is the main focus of most studies on civil economy involving the commitment of politics in the prospect of integrating and somehow guiding an ordered development of and ordered communities. The contemporary city is strongly influenced by the incommunicability between the social system and environment, the latter more and more, including urban and societal components. This study tries to outline a comparative social-urban profile of Picanello, a popular central neighborhood of Catania, in Sicily, Italy, characterized by the combination of different urban and social life-quality levels, thus expressing a heterogeneous vulnerability/resilience profile. The analysis is placed in the urban planning context and aims to: (1) Denotative a pattern that considers the different fragility/resilience descriptive indices; and (2) connotative a pattern of the human and urban dimensions of the social capital asset. This analysis was performed by implementing a multidimensional pattern allowing us to place the neighborhood in a ranking of the neighborhoods of Catania, thus highlighting strength and weakness under different respects. Furthermore, the monetary measurements of this vulnerability/resilience profile, was carried by means of the structured observation of the real estate market. Fuzzy k-medoids cluster analyses have been comparatively performed—showing and mapping the relationships between urban value density and real estate market prices tensions.

scholarly journals The cadastral value as a tool for monitoring the real estate market value

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-108
Author(s):  
Lyudmila Gadasina ◽  
◽  
Mikhail Laskin ◽  
Ekaterina Zaytseva ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Market Data ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market

In the theory and practice of real estate valuation, in analytical studies of the dynamics of real estate markets there is a problem of tracking changes in market prices. The apparent simplicity of this task leads to the fact that in everyday practice both market participants and professional analysts are satisfied with observations of average prices. The advantage of this traditional approach is computational simplicity. However, in the conditions of presence of a large number of special software and extensive statistical material can be used more complex research methods. The purpose of this article is to research big current market data of real estate objects and compare these data with the cadastral value determined in accordance with Russian legislation as the market value at the specified date. In this regard, there are problems associated with the multidimensional distribution of market prices and cadastral values. The article presents the method of calculation of changes of the real estate market prices on the basis of comparison of two-dimensional prices distributions of offers and cadastral prices for two periods. The main problem in studying the dynamics of real estate market prices is the inability to track the change in market prices for each property, as objects are constantly put up for sale and removed from it. The work carried out in the Russian Federation in 2014 to establish the cadastral value of real estate opens opportunity to analyze two-dimensional distributions of current market and cadastral prices and to assess the dynamic characteristics of the market for any real estate objects. The main result of article is the method which allows to apprise the market value of real estate in real time when new market data come by their comparison with the previously established cadastral value. Cadastral value is assumed to be defined as market value at the valuation date.

scholarly journals Pricked by the Virus for good? Real Estate Bubbles and the Grand European Shutdown

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Malović ◽  
Miloš Roganović ◽  
Mustafa Özer
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Research Question: The objective of this particular piece of research was to evaluate the condition of the real estate market in the period preceding the pandemic outbreak. Motivation: Our goal was to determine whether real estate has been overpriced, i.e., whether and when speculative bubbles began to form and whether there were indications of their bursting. This paper brings together the need for discussing theories that can potentially explain the real estate market bubbles and boom-bust cycles (Gleaser &Nathanson, 2014) and the new approach which proved promising to detect the exuberance of economic and financial activities (Phillips, Shi &Yu, 2015). Potential collapse of real estate prices would have devastating effects and would likely cause a collapse of the financial system. Idea: The core idea of this paper was to evaluate whether speculative bubbles could be detected in the real estate market over the period immediately before the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus pandemic, and whether the pandemic or the financial crisis arising from it led to bursting of bubbles in this market and consequently brought their economies into even deeper crises. Data: Quarterly price movements were analyzed in the real estate market in six countries: Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia in the period Q1 1980 - Q4 2019 for Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom; Q1 2002 - Q4 2019 for Serbia and Croatia and Q1 2007 - Q4 2019 for Slovenia. Tools: Empirical analysis has been performed by utilizing generalized sub-augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test of unit roots for the detection and data stamping of bubbles in the real estate market in time series at hand. Findings: In conclusion, grand European shutdown and COVID pandemic apparently did not prick multiplicity of previously formed real estate bubbles, at least not for the time being. Moreover, in several developing countries with stunted financial markets, the virus may have somewhat paradoxically solidified real estate prices and even sustained a build-up of rational real estate bubbles. Contribution: This paper expands previous research on real estate bubbles and provides new insights into the initial consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Evaluation of factors leading to formation of price-bubbles in the real estate market of Lithuania

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 345-352
Author(s):  
Audrius Dzikevičius ◽  
Lukas Kazlauskas ◽  
Šarūnas Bruzgė
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Price Bubble ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Recently, real estate market has been discussed more frequently in the framework of economic analysis. The global economic crisis of 2008 has demonstrated the severity of financial shock that can be caused by inconsiderate investments in the real estate market. The present article analyses business cycles and the phenomenon of a price-bubble in that context. Drawing on the analysis of reference literature we identify the main reasons that can lead to fluctuations of prices in the real estate market. Finally, drawing on correlation and regression analysis we determine which factors have the strongest influence on the Lithuanian real estate market.

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