How Powerful Is Monetary Policy in the Long Run?

2020 ◽  
pp. 829-855
Author(s):  
Marco A. Espinosa-Vega
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Long Run

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY AND TELECOMMUNICATION OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 62-73
Author(s):  
John Abiodun Akinde ◽  
Elijah Oludayo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Favourable Effect ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Effect

Different policies impact on the growth of the telecommunication sector in Nigeria. One of these policies which influence the expansion or contraction of the telecommunication output is monetary policy. To this end, this research examined the effect of monetary policy on telecommunication output in Nigeria. For the purpose of analysis, time series secondary data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin covering the periods1986 to 2018. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed after examining the stationarity of the data series using Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique. The bound co-integration test revealed that there is long run equilibrium between the monetary policy variables employed and telecommunication output. The ARDL result revealed that money supply had significant and positive effect on telecommunication output in the short and long run; liquidity ratio produced an insignificant and negative relationship with telecommunication output in the short run and insignificant positive effect in the long run; exchange rate had insignificant negative effect in the short run and a significant positive effect on telecommunication output in the long run; consumer price index had significant negative influence on telecommunication outputboth in the short run and long run. The study concluded that monetary policy stimulates telecommunication output in Nigeria. Thus, it was recommended that the monetary authority should pursue an expansionary monetary policy to sustain the positive influence of money supply on telecommunication output in Nigeria while rolling out policy to reduce the liquidity ratio of banks in the short run but increase it in the long run so that the long term favourable effect of liquidity ratio can be felt on telecommunication output.  

scholarly journals Effect of Money Supply on the Stock Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 465-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimír Pícha
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Flow Of Funds ◽  
Portfolio Balance ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper observes effect of money supply on the stock market through the portfolio balance channel as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy. National flow of funds accounts, specifically assets from US households’ portfolios, represent a key data source. Johansen’s cointegration methodology is employed in the empirical part of the paper to analyze both short term and long term relationships among researched variables. Estimates of vector error correction model help to reliably quantify intensity of the effect. Results show money supply excercises influence on valuation of S&P 500 index with 6 months lag. The impact is also distinguishable in the long run, whereas all observed asset classes can positively influence price of S&P 500. Findings are then contextualized in the concluding part of the paper using a monetary policy framework.

scholarly journals Does Monetary Policy and Foreign Direct Investment Have an Influence on the Performance of Stock Market: Further Empirical Evidence from Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-176
Author(s):  
Opoku Adabor ◽  
Emmanuel Buabeng
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Effect

Monetary policy, foreign direct investment, and the stock market continue to dominate in discussions in developing countries. However, the linkage between the three variables in empirical literature remains unclear. This study aims to test two separate hypotheses: Firstly, the study examines the effects of monetary policy on stock market performance in Ghana. Secondly, the study also empirically investigates the effect of foreign direct investment on stock market performance in Ghana. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed as an estimation strategy to examine the short and long-run effects using annual time series data from 1990 to 2019. The study revealed that monetary policy rate and money supply exerts a statistically significant negative and a positive effect on stock market performance in both the long and short-run in Ghana, respectively. It was also found that foreign direct investment has significant and a positive effect on stock market performance in Ghana in both the long and short run. Total capital stock and volume traded were also found to exert significant positive and negative impacts on stock market performance both in the short and long run respectively. Based on our findings, we recommend that expansionary monetary policy will be a better option to be carried out to improve the stock market performance in Ghana. Furthermore, government and private partnership may ensure the effective management of the macroeconomic variables to attract foreign direct investment into Ghana to boost stock market performance.

scholarly journals An econometric analysis of the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Nadar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

This study investigatesthe effectiveness of fiscal policy and monetary policy in India. We collected thetime series data for India ranging from 1960 to 2019 from World Development Indicator (WDI). Weapplied the bound test co-integration approach to check the long-run relationship between fiscalpolicy, monetary policy, and economic growth in the context of Indian economy. The short-run andlong-run effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy have been estimated using ARDL models. Theresults showed that there is a long-run relationship between fiscal and monetary policies witheconomic growth. The estimated short-run coefficients indicated that a few immediate short runimpacts of fiscal and monetary policies are insignificant. However, the short-run impacts becomesignificant as time passes. The long-run results suggested that the long-run impact of both fiscal andmonetary policies on economic growth are positive and significant. More specifically, the GDP levelincreases if the money supply and government expenditure increase (Expansionary fiscal andmonetary policies). On the other hand, the GDP level decreasesif the money supply and governmentexpenditure decrease (contractionary fiscal and monetary policies). Therefore, this studyrecommends to use expansionary policies to spur the Indian economy.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Channels and Industrial Production in Pakistan: Evidences based on ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 713-721
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tariq Mahmood ◽  
Sadaf Shahab ◽  
Saad Ali Rabbani
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bound Test

Monetary policy is a significant component of economic management, with which we can control higher inflation, boost the economic growth and stabilize the other macroeconomic activities. This study investigates the channels of monetary policy affecting the industrial production using monthly data of Pakistan. In this regard, we have applied Bound test for co-integration to investigate the dynamic behaviour of the variables. Our results indicate that the consumer prices, money supply and money market rates are negatively effective for industrial production in the short-run. On the other hand, exchange rate has positive effect in short-run. The results also indicate that there is statistically significant and positive relationship between industrial output and money supply in the long-run, too. The adjustment mechanism suggests stability in the system and is statistically significant. Our results imply that the authorities should use expansionary monetary stance through money supply channel to boost the industrial sector.

scholarly journals Análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea

2013 ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
María del Carmen González Velasco ◽  
Roque Brinckmann
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Uncovered Interest Parity ◽  
European Central ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Interest Parity

En este artículo se efectúa un análisis de la integración y dependencia de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Europea y, en concreto, de las políticas monetarias de la Unión Económica yMonetaria y de la zona no euro para el periodo comprendido entre Enero de 1999 y Septiembre 2009. Se aplica la metodología de la cointegración de Engle y Granger (1987) y de Johansen(1988) para contrastar la hipótesis de la paridad de tipos de interés no cubierta y se llega a la conclusión de que ambas políticas están cointegradas porque mantienen una relación de equilibrio a largo plazo. También se deduce una dependencia de la política del Banco de Inglaterra de la política del Banco Central Europeo, lo que confirma la importancia y el liderazgo de la Unión Económica y Monetaria.<br /><br />This study is to investigate the long-run relationship and dependence between the UME´s monetary policy and non-euro zone´s monetary policy for the period from January 4, 1999 to September 30, 2009. We use cointegration methodology to test the Uncovered Interest Parity Hypothesis and the results indicate a long-run cointegration and empirical evidence testifies a leader-follower pattern between the two central banks. According to this pattern, the Bank of England does follow the European Central Bank.

Symmetric and asymmetric adjustment of bank deposit interest rates: empirical evidence from Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moses Nzuki Nyangu ◽  
Freshia Wangari Waweru ◽  
Nyankomo Marwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through

PurposeThis paper examines the sluggish adjustment of deposit interest rate categories with response to policy rate changes in a developing economy.Design/methodology/approachSymmetric and asymmetric error correction models (ECMs) are employed to test the pass-through effect and adjustment speed of deposit rates when above or below their equilibrium levels.FindingsThe findings reveal an incomplete pass-through effect in both the short run and long run while mixed results of symmetric and asymmetric adjustment speed across the different deposit rate categories are observed. Collusive pricing arrangement behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly upwards than downwards, while negative customer reaction behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly downwards than upwards.Practical implicationsEven though the findings indicate an aspect of increased responsiveness over the period, the sluggish adjustment of deposit rates imply that monetary policy is still ineffective and not uniform across the different deposit rate categories.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine both symmetric and asymmetric adjustment behavior of deposit interest rate categories in Kenya. The findings are key to policy makers as they provide insights on how long it takes to adjust different deposit rate categories to monetary policy decisions. In addition, the behavior of deposit rates partly explains why interest rates capping was imposed in Kenya in 2016.

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY AND ENDOGENOUS MARKET STRUCTURE IN A SCHUMPETERIAN ECONOMY

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1127-1145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angus C. Chu ◽  
Lei Ji
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Market Structure ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Endogenous Market Structure ◽  
Number Of Firms

This study develops a monetary Schumpeterian model with endogenous market structure (EMS) to explore the effects of monetary policy on the number of firms, firm size, economic growth, and social welfare. EMS leads to different results from previous studies in which market structure is exogenous. In the short run, a higher nominal interest rate reduces the growth rates of innovation, output, and consumption and decreases firm size through reduction in labor supply. In the long run, a higher nominal interest rate reduces the equilibrium number of firms but has no steady-state effect on economic growth and firm size because of EMS. Although monetary policy has no long-run growth effect, increasing the nominal interest rate permanently reduces the levels of output, consumption, and employment. Taking transition dynamics into account, we find that welfare is decreasing in the nominal interest rate and the Friedman rule is optimal in this economy.

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