Sport, COVID-19, and acceptable risk

2022 ◽  
pp. 122-136
Author(s):  
Jeffrey P. Fry
Keyword(s):  
2020 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
D. V. Zobkov ◽  
◽  
A. A. Poroshin ◽  
A. A. Kondashov ◽  
◽  
...  

Introduction. A mathematical model is presented for assigning protection objects to certain risk categories in the field of fire safety. The model is based on the concepts of the probability of adverse effects of fires causing harm (damage) of various extent and severity to the life or health of citizens, and the acceptable risk of harm (damage) from fires. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the study is to develop the procedure for assigning protection objects to a certain category of risk of harm (damage) based on estimates of the probability of fires with the corresponding severity consequences, to determine the acceptable level of risk of harm (damage) due to the fires, to calculate and develop numerical values of criteria for assigning objects of protection to the appropriate risk categories. Methods. The boundaries of the intervals corresponding to certain risk categories are determined by dividing the logarithmic scale of severity of adverse effects of fires into equal segments. Classification methods are used to assign objects of protection to a specific risk category. Results and discussion. Based on the level of severity of potential negative consequences of a fire, risk categories were determined for groups of protection objects that are homogeneous by type of economic activity and by functional fire hazard classes. The risk category for each individual object of protection is proposed to be determined using the so-called index of "identification of a controlled person" within a group of objects that are homogeneous by type of economic activity and class of functional fire hazard. Depending on the risk category, the periodicity of planned control and supervision measures in relation to the specific object of protection under consideration is determined, taking into account its socio-economic characteristics and the state of compliance with fire safety requirements by the controlled person. Conclusions. To develop criteria for classifying protection objects that are homogeneous in terms of economic activity and functional fire hazard classes, the probability of negative consequences of fires, that are causing harm (damage) of various extent and severity to the life or health of citizens, and the acceptable risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires, is used. The risk category for each individual object of protection is determined taking into account socio-economic characteristics of the object that affect the level of ensuring its fire safety, as well as the criteriaof integrity of the subordinate person that characterize the probability of non-compliance with mandatory fire safety requirements at the object of protection. Calculations are made and numerical values of criteria for assigning protection objects that are homogeneous in terms of economic activity and functional fire hazard classes to a certain category of risk are proposed. Key words: object of protection, probability of fire, acceptable level of risk, risk category, dangerous factor of fire, death and injury of people.


2009 ◽  
Vol 75 (6) ◽  
pp. 504-509 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Stephen Mcadory ◽  
William S. Cobb ◽  
Alfredo M. Carbonell

Acting as a pneumatic tissue expander, progressive preoperative pneumoperitoneum (PPP) pressurizes the abdomen to prepare patients with giant hernias and loss of domain for hernia repair. We review our experience with PPP. Between 2006 and 2008, a prospective hernia database revealed nine patients who underwent PPP prior to hernia repair. Mean patient age was 54 years (41-68) and mean BMI was 31.3 kg/m2 (25.2-36.5). Patients had prophylactic vena cava filters and intraperitoneal catheters placed. Over a mean 22.4 days (7-64), patients received 7.6 (3-13) injections of air. PPP complications included death from pulmonary mycetoma (1), deep venous thrombosis and acute renal failure (1), port infection (1), kinked catheter requiring reoperation (1). Seven patients underwent successful hernia repair; open ventral (6) and laparoscopic inguinal (1). Defect size averaged 387 cm2 (110-980) with a mesh size of 420 cm2 (180-1200). Operative time averaged 256 minutes (175-330) with a mean blood loss of 157 ml (50-500). Post-hernia repair length of stay was 10.3 days (4-22). Hernia repair complications included ventricular tachycardia (1) and hernia recurrence (1). PPP has an acceptable risk, and for patients with large hernias and loss of domain, it may be a useful adjunct prior to definitive hernia repair.


2009 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
R H Guthrie

Landslides are unavoidably linked to forestry operations in coastal BC. A neglected component of landslide risk assessment is the degree to which impacts from landslides may be acceptable. One hundred and thirteen professionals in the BC forest industry, including foresters, biologists, geoscientists and engineers, examined landslide tolerability criteria. Despite differences by sector, there was general agreement that landslides resultant of ignoring expert advice or where an expert was clearly at fault were unacceptable, and penalties were high. In more ambiguous cases, increased consequences resulted in increased scrutiny and it was clear that experts should expect to be held responsible for their decisions by government officiators and the public. Key words: landslide, risk, risk perception, acceptable risk, landslides and forestry


Author(s):  
Elisa Guagenti Grandori

This work focuses on decision problems concerning risk reduction in the case of catastrophic events, which are scarsely predictable but associated to severe expected damage. A cryterium is outlined in order to judge the relative credibility of competing models. The knowledge-decision process is dissected in its components. The steps of the procedure from knowledge to final decision are analyzed. The effectiveness of short-term prediction and the choice of the acceptable risk are also discussed. A few case studies, related to earthquakes, landslides and pollution, are exposed.


1983 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
M. Granger Morgan ◽  
Baruch Fischhoff
Keyword(s):  

2021 ◽  
Vol 894 (1) ◽  
pp. 012045
Author(s):  
A Sarminingsih ◽  
M Hadiwidodo

Abstract The planning of a flood control system in Indonesia is based on the planning criteria issued by the Ministry of Public Works. Flood control planning is based on flood discharge with a specific return period depending on the order of the river and the number of protected populations. Flood events in areas where the flood control system has been planned continue to occur almost every year, meaning that the probability of being exceeded is not as planned. This study is intended to evaluate the criteria for the magnitude of the designed flood discharge in flood control planning that considers the acceptable risk. Potential risks are evaluated against system reliability. The probability of failure of the flood control system occurs if the resistance is smaller than the load expressed as a performance function. By knowing the performance function associated with the level of flood risk, then the flood discharge can be selected with the appropriate return period according to the acceptable risk.


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