Projections of Personal Consumption Expenditure by Sector

2015 ◽  
pp. 188-261
Keyword(s):  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Personal Consumption

US hotel industry revenue: an ARDL bounds testing approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1720-1743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Chen ◽  
Rui Chen ◽  
Shaniel Bernard ◽  
Imran Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Hotel Industry ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Confidence Index

Purpose This study aims to develop a parsimonious model to estimate US aggregate hotel industry revenue using domestic trips, consumer confidence index, international inbound trips, personal consumption expenditure and number of hotel rooms as predictor variables. Additionally, the study applied the model in six sub-segments of the hotel industry – luxury, upper upscale, upscale, upper midscale, midscale and economy. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly aggregate data from the past 22 years, the study adopted the auto-regressive distribute lags (ARDL) approach in developing the estimation model. Unit root analysis and cointegration test were further utilized. The model showed significant utility in accurately estimating aggregate hotel industry and sub-segment revenue. Findings All predictor variables except number of rooms showed significant positive influences on aggregate hotel industry revenue. Substantial variations were noted regarding estimating sub-segment revenue. Consumer confidence index positively affected all sub-segment revenues, except for upper upscale hotels. Inbound trips by international tourists and personal consumption expenditure positively influenced revenue for all sub-segments but economy hotels. Domestic trips by US residents added significant explanatory power to only upper upscale, upscale and economy hotel revenue. Number of hotel rooms only had significant negative effect on luxury and upper upscale hotel sub-segment revenues. Practical implications Hotel operators can make marketing and operating decisions regarding pricing, inventory allocation and strategic management based on the revenue estimation models specific to their segments. Originality/value It is the first study that adopted the ARDL bound approach and analyzed the predictive capacity of macroeconomic variables on aggregate hotel industry and sub-segment revenue.

International Comparison of Growth in Demand for a New Durable Consumer Product

1982 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 364-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bertil C. Lindberg
Keyword(s):  
International Comparison ◽  
Consumer Product ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Relative Demand ◽  
Personal Consumption

The author introduces relative demand, defined as the proportion of a country's personal consumption expenditure spent on a good, and describes relative demand as a function of the level of saturation of the good. He compares parameters of these functions among countries and discusses their use in predicting demand.

scholarly journals Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Ravazzolo ◽  
Shaun P. Vahey
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Combination ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Continuous Ranked Probability Score ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Linear Opinion Pool ◽  
Processing Step ◽  
Density Forecasting ◽  
Opinion Pool

AbstractWe extend the “bottom up” approach for forecasting economic aggregates with disaggregates to probability forecasting. Our methodology utilises a linear opinion pool to combine the forecast densities from many disaggregate forecasting specifications, using weights based on the continuous ranked probability score. We also adopt a post-processing step prior to forecast combination. These methods are adapted from the meteorology literature. In our application, we use our approach to forecast US Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation from 1990q1 to 2009q4. Our ensemble combining the evidence from 16 disaggregate PCE series outperforms an integrated moving average specification for aggregate inflation in terms of density forecasting.

scholarly journals KEBIJAKAN FISKAL ZAKAT DAN PAJAK PADA PEREKONOMIAN (Studi Komparatif Ekonomi Islam, Klasik dan Keynes)

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-221
Author(s):  
Eko Suprayitno
Keyword(s):  
Price Stability ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Muslim Countries ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Comparable Effect ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
High Level ◽  
Direct Tax ◽  
Made In

This paper studies difference of analysis policy of fiscal religious obligatory (zakat) and tax in chartered investment counsel Classic, Keynes and Islam chartered investment counsel. In Islam chartered investment counsel there is religious obligatory which must be packed into model calculation earnings, because religious obligatory that with existence of religious obligatory will give larger one in economics through effect multiplier compared to chartered investment counsel system Classical and Keynes which only apply tax. It also argues that given the requirements of Muslim countries a direct tax and zakat on personal consumption expenditure. It would be comparable effect of direct taxes and zakat on their systems. Its introduction would help in financing a high level of economic development. Since it is highly anti-inflationary, its introduction would help in controlling inflation and achieving much desired price stability. More importantly, an expenditure tax by favoring saving vis-ai-vis consumption would expand zakat base. In order to realize these advantages an attempt is made in this paper to develop a workable model of an expenditure tax and zakat which would incorporate within itself the shariah based prescriptions. Profit and loss sharing, categorization of saving the creation of national equity fund are some of its prominent features.

scholarly journals USE OF QUANTITATIVE CRITERIA IN THE MANAGEMENT OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 468-486
Author(s):  
Kamilė TAUJANSKAITĖ ◽  
Eugenijus MILČIUS ◽  
Nomeda DOBROVOLSKIENĖ
Keyword(s):  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Objective Evaluation ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Rational Distribution ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Tools And Methods

Various non-economic factors, like social, cultural, psychologic and others strongly affect the decision-making related to the management of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in households and often compromise its efficiency. PCE management tools and methods currently used by households are not helpful either as rational distribution of funds among the purchases is usually out of their scope. Therefore, rational use of resources still remains a challenging task for many households. The goal of this study is to analyse the PCE management process in households and the obstacles preventing its efficiency. Methods used in the article comprise: comparative and critical analysis methods; vector analysis tools. The paper identifies shortcomings of currently used PCE management methods and tools and introduces a system of quantitative criteria enabling objective evaluation of consumption alternatives. The use of quantitative criteria limits the influence of subjective, non-economic factors on consumption-related resource management in households and can positively affect its efficiency. The criteria are justified theoretically and the benefits from their use demonstrated with some practical evidence.

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