US hotel industry revenue: an ARDL bounds testing approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1720-1743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Chen ◽  
Rui Chen ◽  
Shaniel Bernard ◽  
Imran Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Hotel Industry ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Confidence Index

Purpose This study aims to develop a parsimonious model to estimate US aggregate hotel industry revenue using domestic trips, consumer confidence index, international inbound trips, personal consumption expenditure and number of hotel rooms as predictor variables. Additionally, the study applied the model in six sub-segments of the hotel industry – luxury, upper upscale, upscale, upper midscale, midscale and economy. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly aggregate data from the past 22 years, the study adopted the auto-regressive distribute lags (ARDL) approach in developing the estimation model. Unit root analysis and cointegration test were further utilized. The model showed significant utility in accurately estimating aggregate hotel industry and sub-segment revenue. Findings All predictor variables except number of rooms showed significant positive influences on aggregate hotel industry revenue. Substantial variations were noted regarding estimating sub-segment revenue. Consumer confidence index positively affected all sub-segment revenues, except for upper upscale hotels. Inbound trips by international tourists and personal consumption expenditure positively influenced revenue for all sub-segments but economy hotels. Domestic trips by US residents added significant explanatory power to only upper upscale, upscale and economy hotel revenue. Number of hotel rooms only had significant negative effect on luxury and upper upscale hotel sub-segment revenues. Practical implications Hotel operators can make marketing and operating decisions regarding pricing, inventory allocation and strategic management based on the revenue estimation models specific to their segments. Originality/value It is the first study that adopted the ARDL bound approach and analyzed the predictive capacity of macroeconomic variables on aggregate hotel industry and sub-segment revenue.

scholarly journals US Consumer Confidence Responses to Shocks: COVID19 Scenarios and Recovery.Under review: REHO Special Issue

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzanna Elmassah ◽  
Eslam A.Hassanein
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Consumer Expenditure ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
The Us ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Personal consumption expenditure has long been a key driver of the US economy, accounting for roughly two-thirds of GDP. Consumer confidence is a significant predictor of consumer expenditure especially in times of shocks. The US has experienced many shocks since 1978; the latest of which is the outbreak of coronavirus. COVID19 has spread from China to the whole world; the pandemic has had far-reaching consequences for global political, social, economic, and financial structures. Consumer confidence is one of the leading economic indicators that provides information on the current and future path of the economy, helps in stimulating economic activity, and predicts change in macroeconomic variables, especially during times of economic and political uncertainty. Our study investigates the relationship between consumption expenditure and consumer confidence in the USA. It analyzes the US consumer confidence response to 11 different shocks since 1978, focusing on COVID-19 shock. Our investigation uses Michigan's monthly Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and its five components from January 1978 to April 2020. The paper is unique in quantifying the potential variations in US consumer confidence due to COVID-19 under different scenarios; by providing a projection until August 2021. The goal is to estimate the time needed for recovery and provide guidance to policymakers on ways to restore consumer confidence to tame the impact of coronavirus on effective demand. Under the two more optimistic scenarios we predict that recovery will begin by January 2021. Under the third, less optimistic, scenario we predict that recovery will begin by April 2021.

Measuring pedestrian volume by land use mix: Presenting a new entropy-based index by weighting walking generation units

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (7) ◽  
pp. 1219-1236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ha Na Im ◽  
Chang Gyu Choi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Studies ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Built Environments ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Land Use Types ◽  
Land Use Mix ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

This study proposes an alternative to the conventional entropy-based land use mix index, which is generally used to measure the diversity of land use. Pedestrian volume was selected as the dependent variable as it represents the vitality of districts, which many recent urban studies now consider important. The study investigates an entropy-based weighted land use mix index, which is weighted by different land use types. For the index, different areas are needed to generate a unit of pedestrian volume, whose measure is m2/person/day. The study demonstrates that this alternative is more effective than the existing conventionally used entropy-based land use mix index for explaining pedestrian volume. The research confirms that the conventionally used entropy-based land use mix index can have a positive or negative impact depending on the land use characteristics of the survey points because the conventionally used entropy-based land use mix index has a non-linear relationship with pedestrian volume. By analysing 9727 surveyed locations of pedestrian volume in Seoul, Korea, the study demonstrates that the weighted land use mix index, rather than the conventionally used entropy-based land use mix index, can improve the explanatory power of the estimation model for the relationship between pedestrian volume and built environments, showing consistent results throughout the empirical analysis. In future built-environment studies, the utility of the weighted land use mix index is expected to improve if studies include how to find the accurate weighting of the land use in estimating the pedestrian volume.

Profitability of the Northern Sea Route for liquid bulk shipping under post 2020 sulphur regulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-332
Author(s):  
Tuomo Keltto ◽  
Su-Han Woo
Keyword(s):  
Spot Market ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freight Rates ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Financial Perspective ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Regulation Compliance

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to evaluate the profitability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a shipping lane from the financial perspective of shipping companies under post 2020 sulphur regulations.Design/methodology/approachThis study develops profit estimation model, and the profitability of the NSR is assessed for a Handymax Medium Range (MR) tanker vessel using scenarios in combination with spot market earning levels, the regulation compliance method and destination ports. The required freight rates are calculated to justify the decision of shipowners to transit a tanker from the Baltic spot market to the NSR navigation.FindingsResults suggest that the required freight rates from the Arctic trade to justify the transit to the NSR are higher than the actual agreed rates in the past, which implies low viability of the NSR as a regular shipping lane. It was also found that the required freight rates are affected by the spot market earning levels, compliance method and duration of the voyage.Research limitations/implicationsThis study takes a new approach on assessing the NSR viability by comprehensively assessing the annual profitability and including the spot market trade as an opportunity cost for the NSR shipping. Despite various scenarios used in this study, a sensitivity analysis would be useful for future research.Practical implicationsThis study suggests how much freight rates a shipping company would need to charge if it were to offer tanker shipping services to four major Asian ports while simultaneously operating at the Baltic Sea during the remainder of the year.Originality/valueThis study adopts a market-oriented approach by incorporating both earnings and costs (including opportunity costs) in the profitability model rather than merely analyzing the total cost of shipping via the NSR. This study also analyzes impact of IMO 2020 Sulphur regulation on the NSR profitability.

Combatting organised crime and terrorism in Central Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma van Santen
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
The State ◽  
State Crime ◽  
International Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Terrorist Groups

Purpose This paper aims to examine the shift away from the traditional distinction between organised crime and terrorist groups towards their conceptual convergence under the crime-terror nexus narrative in the context of international security and development policy in post-Soviet Central Asia. It assesses the empirical basis for the crime-terror and state-crime nexus in three Central Asian countries – Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – and argues that the exclusion of the state from the analytical framework undermines the relevance of the crime-terror paradigm for policy-making. Design/methodology/approach This paper draws on a literature review of academic research, recent case studies highlighting new empirical evidence in Central Asia and international policy publications. Findings There is a weak empirical connection between organised crime and Islamic extremists, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizbut Tahrir, in Central Asia. The state-crime paradigm, including concepts of criminal capture, criminal sovereignty and criminal penetration, hold more explanatory power for international policy in Central Asia. The crime-terror paradigm has resulted in a narrow and ineffective security-oriented law enforcement approach to counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism but does not address the underlying weak state governance structures and political grievances that motivate organised crime and terrorist groups respectively. Originality/value International policy and scholarship is currently focussed on the areas of convergence between organised crime and terrorist groups. This paper highlights the continued relevance of the traditional conceptual separation of terrorist and organised crime groups based on their different motives, methods and relationship with the state, for security and democratic governance initiatives in the under-researched Central Asian region.

Driving forces and structural changes of China as a market provider for Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 194-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongqi Feng ◽  
Tianshu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the driving forces and structural changes of China as a market provider for Korea. This paper gives the answers for the following questions: How do China’s final demands trigger the growth of its imports from Korea? And what’s the impact of China’s final demands on the import in different industries? Design/methodology/approach Based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output model and World Input-Output Table database, this paper constructs the non-competitive imports input-output (IO) table of China to Korea. According to this table, we can calculate the induced imports coefficient and comprehensive induced import coefficients of China’s four final demands for imports from Korea in the 56 industries in China. Findings Among the four driving forces, the strongest one is changes in inventories and valuables. The impact of final consumption expenditure and fixed capital formation is much lower than that of changes in inventories and valuables, but they have a broader impact for the 56 industries. This paper finds out the China’s import induction of the final demands to Korea peaked in 2005 and 2010 and decreased greatly in 2014, so the position of China as market provider for Korea will no longer rise substantially, contrarily it will be in a steady state. Originality/value First, this paper constructs the non-competitive IO table to analyze the market provider issues between two countries and provides practical ways and methods for studies on the issues of imports and market provider. Second, this paper investigates the different roles of four final demands on driving force of China as market provider for Korea and the structural changes of China as a market provider for Korea among 56 industries from 2000 to 2014.

Addressing the COVID-19 challenges by SMEs in the hotel industry – a Czech sustainability message for emerging economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Radka MacGregor Pelikanova ◽  
Eva Daniela Cvik ◽  
Robert Kenyon MacGregor
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Hotel Industry ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Behavioral Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Socratic Questioning ◽  
Entrepreneurial Readiness ◽  
Entrepreneurial Strategies

Purpose Emerging economies have to address positive challenges such as sustainability, digitalization, entrepreneurial readiness and planning and behavioral strategies and negative challenges, such as corruption and bureaucracy. The COVID-19 pandemic hit all economies and arguably made hotel businesses that are from less typical emerging economies, such as the Czech Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), to deal with similar challenges to that of their counterparts from typical emerging economies. How do Czech hotel SMEs address the COVID-19 challenges and what sustainability message can be extracted from that with the relevance for not only businesses from emerging economies? The purpose of this paper is to explore how Czech hotel SMEs address the COVID-19 challenges and what sustainability. Design/methodology/approach A consolidated parsing of the literature, legislative and analytical framework, along with an investigative case study of 11 Czech hotel SMEs was performed, based on the questionnaire survey and semi-structured in-depth direct interviews. The holistic thematic analysis processed this fresh data and allowed Socratic questioning and glossing while addressing both research questions. Findings The performed case study reveals that typical challenges faced by entrepreneurs in emerging economies became, via COVID-19, universal challenges, these challenges are a valuable impulse for digitalization and changes of entrepreneurial strategies, but not so much for sustainability, and the omnipresent negative impact of corruption and bureaucracy. Originality/value This paper presents a pioneering study regarding the addressing COVID-19 and sustainability concerns by SMEs in a less typical emerging economy and offering a universal, partially comparative and sadly not so sustainable, message which is not just limited to emerging economies.

Drivers of sustainable entrepreneurial intentions among university students: an integrated model from a developing world context

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 659-680
Author(s):  
Agu Godswill Agu ◽  
Okwuagwu Okuu Kalu ◽  
Chidadi Obinna Esi-Ubani ◽  
Paul Chinedu Agu
Keyword(s):  
University Students ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Entrepreneurial Intention ◽  
Integrated Model ◽  
Entrepreneurial Intentions ◽  
Sustainable Entrepreneurship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Event Model

Purpose The purpose of this study is to integrate and extend two models of entrepreneurial intention to investigate the drivers of sustainable entrepreneurial intention among intermediate undergraduate university students in Nigeria. Specifically, this paper aims to introduce education for sustainable entrepreneurship into the integrated model, thereby fitting the model into the context of sustainable entrepreneurship. Design/methodology/approach Data was gathered with the help of a structured questionnaire from 435 students of a university in Nigeria. The students passed through a special entrepreneurship training in which they were educated on the concept and practice of sustainable entrepreneurship. SmartPLS was used to test the proposed structural model. Findings The findings revealed that education for sustainable entrepreneurship significantly influences all variables of the integrated model, but has nonsignificant direct influence on sustainable entrepreneurial intention. Sustainable entrepreneurial intention is significantly driven by attitude and propensity to act. Therefore, the inclusion of education for sustainable entrepreneurship into the regression equation adds to its explanatory power. Originality/value This study contributes toward understanding of sustainable entrepreneurial intention of intermediate university students in a developing world context – Nigeria. Above all, it is among the few studies that shed light on the strength of education for sustainable entrepreneurship in the formation of sustainable entrepreneurial intention among students. This study proposes integration and extension (by adding education for sustainable entrepreneurship) of the theory of planned behavior and entrepreneurial event model in learning about students’ intentions to engage in sustainable entrepreneurship.

UK prime minister will likely remain in power for now

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Eu

Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.

Assessing the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with a novel economic uncertainty index

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhan Mugaloglu ◽  
Ali Yavuz Polat ◽  
Hasan Tekin ◽  
Edanur Kılıç
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Shocks ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to measure economic uncertainty in Turkey by a novel economic uncertainty index (EUI) employing principal component analysis (PCA). We assess the impact of Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey with our constructed uncertainty index.Design/methodology/approachIn order to obtain the EUI, this study employs a dimension reduction method of PCA using 14 macroeconomic indicators that spans from January 2011 to July 2020. The first principal component is picked as a proxy for the economic uncertainty in Turkey which explains 52% of total variation in entire sample. In the second part of our analysis, with our constructed EUI we conduct a structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) analysis simulating the Covid-19-induced uncertainty shock to the real economy.FindingsOur EUI sensitively detects important economic/political events in Turkey as well as Covid-19-induced uncertainty rising to extremely high levels during the outbreak. Our SVAR results imply a significant decline in economic activity and in the sub-indices as well. Namely, industrial production drops immediately by 8.2% and cumulative loss over 8 months will be 15% on average. The losses in the capital and intermediate goods are estimated to be 18 and 25% respectively. Forecast error variance decomposition results imply that uncertainty shocks preserve its explanatory power in the long run, and intermediate goods production is more vulnerable to uncertainty shocks than overall industrial production and capital goods production.Practical implicationsThe results indicate that monetary and fiscal policy should aim to decrease uncertainty during Covid-19. Moreover, since investment expenditures are affected severely during the outbreak, policymakers should impose investment subsidies.Originality/valueThis is the first study constructing a novel EUI which sensitively captures the critical economic/political events in Turkey. Moreover, we assess the impact of Covid-19-driven uncertainty on Turkish Economy with a SVAR model.

Explaining the directionality of gang violence with court records

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gisela Bichler ◽  
Alexis Norris ◽  
Citlalik Ibarra
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Crime Control ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Quadratic Assignment ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Court Records ◽  
Explanatory Factors

Purpose Studies of gang violence typically use police reports to investigate the structure of gang conflict, but overreliance on a singular data source could impede crime control efforts. Extending networked criminology, this study aims to explore what court records reveal about the directionality of gang conflicts. Design/methodology/approach Controlling for the presence of a civil gang injunction (CGI), the authors use multivariate quadratic assignment procedure regression models to disentangle factors thought to account for structural patterns of gang violence mapped from 933 prosecutions involving 307 gangs associated with violent conflict affecting the City of Los Angeles (1998–2013). Specifically, the authors compare competitive advantage to the explanatory power of turf proximity. Findings One measure of turf proximity outperforms all other explanatory factors – gangs with turf centrally positioned in a turf adjacency matrix are significantly more likely to launch attacks, be victimized and exhibit the highest levels of imbalance in their violent involvements. Regarding competitive advantage, the number of cliques and level of internal conflict are significant. Finally, being subject to a CGI is associated with initiating violence. Originality/value Court cases offer a feasible alternative to police data when investigating patterns of intergroup street gang violence.

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