scholarly journals Financial Conditions Index and Economic Performance in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-70
Author(s):  
Chukwu Agwu Ejem ◽  
Udochukwu Godfrey Ogbonna
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Future Growth

The main aim of this study is to construct a financial conditions index for Nigeria and analyze its predictive power for future growth rate and inflationary trend. The study is based on yearly time series data from 1985 to 2018. The variables included in the construction of the index are riskless interest rate, stock market index, exchange rate, credit to private sector and interest rate spread. The weights attached to these variables are derived from ARDL coefficients, while the predictive power of the constructed index is examined within the VAR framework. The results from the ARDL model shows that credit to private sector and stock market index are the most significant factors for nominal GDP, hence having a substantial weight in the resultant financial conditions index. However, the results from VAR impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition suggest that the constructed financial conditions index contain very little predictive information about future growth rate and inflationary trend.  

scholarly journals The long-Run and Short-Run Analysis between Stock Market Index and Macroeconomic Variables in Jordan: Bounds Tests Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Raed Walid Al-Smadi ◽  
Muthana Mohammad Omoush
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between stock market index and the macroeconomic variables in Jordan. Annual time series data for the 1978–2017 periods and the ARDL bounding test are used. The results identify long-run equilibrium relationship between stock market index and the macroeconomic variables in Jordan. Jordanian policy makers have to pay more attention to the current regulation in the Amman Stock Exchange(ASE) and manage it well, thus ultimately helping financial development.

Long Term Effects of Major Macroeconomic Variables on the Brazilian Stock Market: A nonlinear ARDL application

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-299
Author(s):  
MARCELO MELO ◽  
WELIGTON GOMES
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Interest Rate

This research used NARDL methodology to investigate relevant macroeconomic variables influence on the Brazilian stock market index. We used monthly data from January/2000 to July/2020 and the six macroeconomic variables investigated are described as follows: net government's debt/GDP (DEBT), exports (EXPORT), consumer confidence (ICC), liquidity ratio (M4_PIB), interest rate (SELIC) besides the stock market index (IBOV). All monthly data were collected from IPEADATA. The main conclusions are that there is long run effect of IBOVESPA due to a decrease of government debt is clear and statistically significant, the long run effect in the liquidity ratio also affects IBOVESPA index. Moreover, the most outstanding result was the long run effect of decrease in the interest rate over the IBOVESPA index. Sustainable reductions in the interest rate would consistently stimulate the stock market index. Research outcomes also indicate that long run asymmetries of government debt, liquidity ratio and interest rate are reliable and statistically significant.

scholarly journals Prediksi Indeks BEI dengan Ensemble Convolutional Neural Network dan Long Short-Term Memory

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 456-465
Author(s):  
Harya Widiputra ◽  
Adele Mailangkay ◽  
Elliana Gautama
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) stock market index is one of the main indicators commonly used as a reference for national economic conditions. The value of the stock market index is often being used by investment companies and individual investors to help making investment decisions. Therefore, the ability to predict the stock market index value is a critical need. In the fields of statistics and probability theory as well as machine learning, various methods have been developed to predict the value of the stock market index with a good accuracy. However, previous research results have found that no one method is superior to other methods. This study proposes an ensemble model based on deep learning architecture, namely Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), called the CNN-LSTM. To be able to predict financial time series data, CNN-LSTM takes feature from CNN for extraction of important features from time series data, which are then integrated with LSTM feature that is reliable in processing time series data. Results of experiments on the proposed CNN-LSTM model confirm that the hybrid model effectively provides better predictive accuracy than the stand-alone time series data forecasting models, such as CNN and LSTM.  

scholarly journals Daily Stock Movements Through the Lens of Event and News: Evidence from the Pakistan Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahid Raza ◽  
Baiqing Sun ◽  
Pwint Kay Khine
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
News Daily ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Daily Newspaper ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Market Index ◽  
The Impact

This study will investigate different signals and events/news that determined the stock market's movements. As we know, many factors affect the stock market on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis, e.g., rate of interest, exchange rate, and oil prices, etc. Our research will investigate the impact of daily events/news in the KSE-100 index due to several policies announced and events/news in the country because the daily movements in the stock market can be determined only by different signals and events/news. Time series data is collected daily for particular reasons from "The News" (Daily Newspaper, Sunday edition) from 2010 to 2019. The results of this study show that political and global news affects the stock market index ferociously. For investors, the investment in blue chips is not less than a safe haven. When day-to-day transactions are concerned, there is always a higher panic attack than the herd behaviour in the stock exchange. Investors tend to make prompt responses to negative rather than positive news, which makes them risk averters. Our finding also confirmed that the ARCH/GARCH model is better than the simple OLS method concerning stock market upheaval.

scholarly journals Economic Interactions among Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables with Mediating Role of Gold Prices Volatilities: An Evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 383-394
Author(s):  
Rukhsana Rasheed ◽  
Mazhar Nadeem Ishaq ◽  
Rabia Anwar ◽  
Mehwish Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

In all emerging economies, one of the most challenging issues for investors is the multifaceted inter-relationship between volatility of gold prices and stock market index. During the COVID-19 sub-periods, gold has shown a strong hedging behavior against stock market performance. The main objective of this study was to quantify the long-run relationship among multiple independent macroeconomic variables (predictors) on stock market index (response variable) using the volatilities of gold prices as a mediator factor. This study applied the descriptive statistics, correlation, t-test and OLS multiple regression Model. The specific data comprised of period 2011-2020 regarding the fluctuations in gold prices, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate and performance of stock market index has been utilized. The statistical outputs of models showed that exchange rate (Dollar to PKR) was positively affecting the performance of Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE)-100 Index, whereas inflation rate and interest rate were negatively affecting the overall performance of KSE100 index. The findings of this study suggested that to achieve better performance of stock market, relatively low interest rate and inflation rate contribute a significant role. However, to increase the generalization capabilities of this study the impact of mentioned macroeconomic variables in other sectors like industrial production, oil & gas and energy sectors with wider time span can be more helpful.

scholarly journals The Role of Gold Prices and Interest Rate in Stock Index: Insights from Vietnam by Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 178
Author(s):  
Le Thi Minh Huong ◽  
Phan Minh Trung
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study aimed to determine the impact of domestic gold prices, interest rates in the stock market index (VNI) in Vietnam for the period of January 2009 to December 2018. This study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to check the association of Independent variable gold prices and the interest rate on the dependent variable stock market index. The results show a close correlation together in the long-run. The Vietnam stock index is adversely affected by fluctuations in the credit market in the short-run. We observed that domestic gold prices and interest rates have one-way causal relations to the stock price index. Similarly, interest rates were causal for gold prices and still not yet had any particular direction. The adjustment in the short-run moves the long-run equilibrium, although the change is quite slow.

scholarly journals Interest rate, liquidity and stock market performance in Ghana

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micheal Kofi Boachie ◽  
Isaac Osei Mensah ◽  
Albert Opoku Frimpong ◽  
Martin Ruzima
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
M Estimation ◽  
Ghana Stock Exchange

<p>In this study, we examined the effect of interest rate and liquidity growth on stock market performance in Ghana using monthly data from the Ghana Stock Exchange and Bank of Ghana for the period 2010:12 to 2013:11. After employing robust linear regression (M-Estimation), there is a compelling evidence that performance of the Ghanaian stock market is highly influenced by liquidity growth, exchange rate and inflation; and that interest rate effect is insignificant though positive on the stock market index for the period under study.</p>

Impact of Macroeconomics variable on the Stock Market index; A Study From Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 258
Author(s):  
Waseem Ahmad Khan ◽  
Muhammad Arif Javed ◽  
Nimra Shahzad ◽  
Qandeel Sheikh ◽  
Samina Saddique ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate

The focal point of this research article is to examine the possible impact of macroeconomic variable like fiscal policies and monetary policies (interest rate) and inflation rates on stock market performance in Pakistan. The Pearson correlation and regression analysis techniques were applied. For this purpose monthly data have been used. The paper finds that the Pakistan stock market index is significantly affected by the fiscal policy, monetary policy and inflation. The results have shown that the interest rate  and government revenue have a significant negative relationship with the stock market index in Pakistan, whereas the inflation rate and the government expenditures have a significant positive relationship with the stock market Index in Pakistan. 

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