scholarly journals Oil Prices, Emission Permits Trade of Carbon, and the Dependence Between Their Quantiles

2022 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 38-45
Author(s):  
Baoshuai Zhang ◽  
Yuqin Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quantile Regression Method

The relations between carbon and oil market is concerned by many scholars but little research has focused on the dependence between their quantiles. We use Quantile on Quantile Regression method to study the impact of WTI crude oil price and Daqing crude oil price on carbon price and use wavelet analysis to clean and decompose the time series. Results show that the impact of crude oil on carbon is heterogeneous. Research based on the original sequence shows that crude oil price has a positive impact on carbon price at all quantile levels. Research based on decomposition sequence shows that the positive impact of crude oil on carbon begins to weaken, the zero effect begins to increase, and the negative impact also begins to appear. However, the negative impact on carbon price becomes stronger with the stability of the time series data obtained from the decomposition of crude oil price series gradually improving, while the positive impact gradually weakens.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE ON STOCK MARKET:EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM US

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 330-337
Author(s):  
Shanaz hakim , Tugut Tursoy,
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
P Value ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Interactive Relationship ◽  
The Impact

The analysis of this research focuses on the interactive relationship among the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the real GDP and the stock market of United State. This empirical investigation uses data is in between 1990 and 2018 with the Vector Auto-regression (VAR) analysis, and multiple regressions with its assumption were used in order to analyses data.  Findings, oil price and economic growth are very important determinates of stock market in US because the p-value of this were less than the common alpha α =0.05. For instance, the crude oil price had positive impact on stock market because for each unit increasing of crude oil price, the stock market will increase by (0.276901) after holding all other variable constant. However, we find that GDP has negative impact on the participations of increasing the stock market.

Export of Services and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
pp. 23-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Musibau Adetunji Babatunde
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Information And Communication Technology ◽  
Communication Technology ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
The Impact

Against the background of rising tradability and the productive nature of services as a result of the revolution in information and communication technology (ICT), this study examined the impact of services exports on economic growth in Nigeria. Time series estimations established a positive relationship between services export and economic growth after controlling for a number of variables. In addition, causality was found to run from export of services to economic growth. This is an indication that services exports offered a new channel for growth that may be of significance for Nigeria, especially when it is trying to get out of the slump in crude oil price and diversify her economy.

scholarly journals Do Crude Oil Price Changes Affect Economic Welfare? Empirical Evidence from Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-58
Author(s):  
K. Kamasa
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Welfare ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper sought to explore the impact of crude oil price changes on economic welfare in Ghana. The paper employed the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation technique on an annual time series data spanning 1983 – 2017. The findings revealed that crude oil price changes have a negative and significant impact on economic welfare in the short and long run, albeit marginal. In terms of covariates, the findings revealed that trade openness and gross fixed capital formation have positive and significant impact whilst interest rate have negative impact on economic welfare in both the short and long run. Foreign direct investment had a positive effect, albeit insignificant. The paper recommends among others, the hedging of prices with respect to imported crude oil so as to manage the risks associated with crude oil price changes on economic welfare.   Keywords: Economic Welfare; Crude Oil Prices Changes; Autoregressive Distributed Lag; Ghana

Does Crude Oil Price Affect the Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in India? A New Insight Based on Structural VAR Framework

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622199883
Author(s):  
Ankita Sarmah ◽  
Debi Prasad Bal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Partial Sum ◽  
The Impact

Based on a structural vector autoregressive framework on the monthly data from April 1997 to July 2016, this study is an attempt to show the impact of crude oil price on the rate of inflation and economic growth in India. The results showed that the crude oil price has a positive impact on the rate of inflation whereas an inverse relation exists between crude oil price and economic growth. Further, we segregated the crude oil price into two components, that is, positive and negative partial sum of oil price through the nonlinear and asymmetric autoregressive distribution lag framework. A similar kind of result is derived in the case of positive partial sum of oil price on the rate of inflation and economic growth, while a significant negative relationship is found in the negative partial sum of crude oil price on economic growth. From the policy perceptive, we suggest that policymakers may focus on reducing the consumption of crude oil and using renewable energy for accelerating the economic growth. This would not only prevent the domestic economy from international oil price fluctuations and inflation but also assist in achieving sustainable environmental goal of reduced crude oil use. JEL Classification Codes: C3, O4, Q4

Welfare Use in Japan: Trends and Determinants

2007 ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Wataru Suzuki ◽  
Yanfei Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Welfare Use ◽  
The Impact

This article represents the first step in filling a large gap in knowledge concerning why Public Assistance (PA) use recently rose so fast in Japan. Specifically, we try to address this problem not only by performing a Blanchard and Quah decomposition on long-term monthly time series data (1960:04-2006:10), but also by estimating prefecturelevel longitudinal data. Two interesting findings emerge from the time series analysis. The first is that permanent shock imposes a continuously positive impact on the PA rate and is the main driving factor behind the recent increase in welfare use. The second finding is that the impact of temporary shock will last for a long time. The rate of the use of welfare is quite rigid because even if the PA rate rises due to temporary shocks, it takes about 8 or 9 years for it to regain its normal level. On the other hand, estimations of prefecture-level longitudinal data indicate that the Financial Capability Index (FCI) of the local government2 and minimum wage both impose negative effects on the PA rate. We also find that the rapid aging of Japan's population presents a permanent shock in practice, which makes it the most prominent contribution to surging welfare use.

Forecasting Crude Oil price using Artificial Neural Network model

2021 ◽  
pp. 321-326
Author(s):  
Sivaprakash J. ◽  
Manu K. S.
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Back Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

In the advanced global economy, crude oil is a commodity that plays a major role in every economy. As Crude oil is highly traded commodity it is essential for the investors, analysts, economists to forecast the future spot price of the crude oil appropriately. In the last year the crude oil faced a historic fall during the pandemic and reached all time low, but will this situation last? There was analysis such as fundamental analysis, technical analysis and time series analyses which were carried out for predicting the movement of the oil prices but the accuracy in such prediction is still a question. Thus, it is necessary to identify better methods to forecast the crude oil prices. This study is an empirical study to forecast crude oil prices using the neural networks. This study consists of 13 input variables with one target variable. The data are divided in the ratio 70:30. The 70% data is used for training the network and 30% is used for testing. The feed forward and back propagation algorithm are used to predict the crude oil price. The neural network proved to be efficient in forecasting in the modern era. A simple neural network performs better than the time series models. The study found that back propagation algorithm performs better while predicting the crude oil price. Hence, ANN can be used by the investors, forecasters and for future researchers.

Oil and Methanol Price volatility

2013 ◽  
Vol 03 (08) ◽  
pp. 01-10
Author(s):  
Majid Delavari ◽  
Nadiya Gandali Ali khani ◽  
Esmaeil Naderi
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cultural Issues ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
The One

Crude oil as one of the main sources of energy is also the main source of income for members of OPEC. So, the volatility of crude oil price is one of the main economic variables in the world and analysis of the effect of its changes on key economic factors has been always considered as significant. The reason might be the high sensitivity of oil price to political, economic and cultural issues worldwide and consequently its volatility on the one hand, and the high influence of the volatile prices on macroeconomic variables. On the other hand, for different reasons such as oil price volatilities and income from oil export, economic planners and policy makers in Iran have been mainly focused on the promotion of non-oil exports especially during the last few decades. Therefore, methanol as one of the most commonly used petrochemical products has a high potential for production and export of non-oil products in Iran. For this reason, in the present study there was an attempt to examine the relationship between the prices of Iran’s crude oil and methanol using FIGARCH model and based on the weekly time series data related to the research variables. The results of the study showed that the long memory parameter is equal to 0.32 which is meaning the shocks caused by volatility of methanol market and crude oil price to the methanol price were lasting and meaningful and were revealed in the long term.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-40
Author(s):  
Comfort Akinwolere Bukola ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. The study covers the period of 1986 to 2019. Using time series data, the methodology adopted is the Vector Error Correction Mechanism to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the selected macroeconomic variables. The result indicated that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on economic growth, specifically it has a positive impact on inflation, unemployment and balance of trade. On the other hand it has a negative impact on economic growth and investment. The recommendations made include; that relevant authorities should try to avoid systematic currency devaluations in order to maintain exchange rate volatility at a rate that allows adjustment of the balance of payments.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document