scholarly journals Total DEBT and Economic Growth of Nigeria – A Causal Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (09) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Ogbonna Udochukwu Godfrey ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Productivity Level ◽  
Total Debt ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

This study xrayed the impact of total debt on economic growth of Nigeria using data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical bulletin from 1981 to 2019 period. The analytical tool used was the E-view version 13 where the multicollinearity test showed that domestic debt and external debt move predominantly in the same direction with gross domestic product. The result of the Error Correction Model shows that it was appropriately signed at 13.9% meaning that the previous period’s disequilibrium in economic growth (proxied by GDP) value is corrected every year by external and domestic debts. Following the result, it is evident that external debts incurred in Nigeria over time are good debt, as this has over time exerted no critically negative impact on the growth level of the nation. Similarly, the result shows that domestic debt exerts a positive long run and short run impact on economic growth of Nigeria. Using the Granger Causality test it was observed that External and Domestic Debt granger causes GDP, the implication of this is that total debt of Nigeria if properly utilized, stimulates economic growth as seen in the granger causality test. The researcher amongst other recommendations suggest that Policy makers should integrate appropriate measures towards ensuring suitable management of domestic debts so as to enhance the productivity level of the country.

scholarly journals The impact of agriculture and renewable energy on climate change in Central and East European Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 447-457
Author(s):  
Nicoleta Mihaela Florea ◽  
Roxana Maria Badircea ◽  
Ramona Costina Pirvu ◽  
Alina Georgiana Manta ◽  
Marius Dalian Doran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
The Impact

According to the objectives of the European Union concerning the climate changes, Member States should take all the necessary measures in order to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this study is to identify the causality relations between greenhouse gases emissions, added value from agriculture, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth based on a panel consisting of 11 states from the Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs) in the period between 2000 and 2017. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used to estimate the long-term relationships among the variables. Also a Granger causality test based on the ARDL – Error Correction Model (ECM) and a Pairwise Granger causality test were used to identify the causality relationship and to detect the direction of causality among the variables. The results obtained reveal, in the long term, two bidirectional relationships between agriculture and economic growth and two unidirectional relationships from agriculture to greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy. In the short term, four unidirectional relationships were found from agriculture to all the variables in the model and one unidirectional relationship from renewable energy to greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

Causal Linkages between Terrorism and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Four Provinces of Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luqman Saeed ◽  
Shabib Haider Syed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Reverse Causation ◽  
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ◽  
Terrorist Activity ◽  
National Economies

AbstractThis study analyses the dynamics of causal linkages between terrorism and economic growth across four provinces of Pakistan using Bivariate and Trivariate Hsaio Granger Causality test. The empirical evidence reveals within country idiosyncratic causal trends; hence demonstrating the importance of analysing sub-national variations while determining the extent to which terrorism is related with other variables. The estimates suggest that terrorist activity Granger causes economic growth in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. The reverse causation from economic growth to terrorism is observed in case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa only. The evidence presented in this paper stresses the importance of taking into account higher vulnerability of comparatively weaker sub-national economies while formulating relevant policies to ameliorate negative impact of terrorism.

scholarly journals Impact of FDI on Provincial Economic Growth in Vietnam

2014 ◽  
Vol 221 ◽  
pp. 65-84
Author(s):  
THÀNH SỬ ĐÌNH ◽  
Tiến Nguyễn Minh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Controversial Issue ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Impact

The impact of foreign direct imvestment (FDI) on economic growth is still a highly controversial issue as remarked by many researchers (Aitken et al.; 1997; Carkovic & Levine, 2002; Bende-Nabende et al., 2003; Durham, 2004; and Hsiao, 2006). Using a panel dataset of 43 provinces in Vietnam during 1997 – 2012 and the Granger causality test by Arellano-Bond GMM and PMG estimation, this paper shows that: (i) FDI does Granger-cause private investment, human resources, taxation, infrastructure, trade openness and local technology; (ii) FDI has a positive impacts on provincial economic growth in the long term; and (iii) FDI flows vary over provinces due to differences in geographical conditions and level of development.

scholarly journals Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Bangladesh Economy: a Time Series Analysis from 1972 to 2013

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rumana Rashid ◽  
Sk. Sharafat Hossen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth and examines the causality between FDI and economic growth in Bangladesh during 1972-2013. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), export performance (EXP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) are considered to capture the objective of the study. The study methodology includes some systematic steps. As the data used in the study is time-series in nature, the author employs unit root tests, and in this case, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests are used. Then Johansen’s cointegration test, Granger causality test, regression with Newey-West Standard Error and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are applied. By using the ADF and PP test the study reveals that the variables of four-time series are integrated of I (1) i.e. they are stationary at first difference. Regression analysis result demonstrates that FDI has a positive effect on economic growth. The Granger Causality test discloses that there is a unidirectional relationship between FDI and economic growth. But the VECM estimation finds that in the long run FDI negatively affects economic growth.

scholarly journals Trade Openness and Economic Growth of Tanzania

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Salama Yusuf ◽  
Moza R. Omar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Economic Problem ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Foreign Earnings ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Trade openness is very crucial in the achievement of any rapid economic take off for any country. Realizing that in 1996, Tanzania government initiated economic recovery program to address the economic problem. One among them was Trade liberalization implementation. This paper examines the impact of trade openness on economic growth in Tanzania for the period 1981 to 2017.  The study utilized co-integration and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) Approach to test the relationship between trade openness and economic growth and granger causality test to examine the causal relationship between variable. The unit root tests showed that all variables were integrated after taking first difference, the Johansen co-integration result showed that the variables were co-integrated. The VECM estimate showed that there is positive long run relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Tanzania over the study period, this positive result of trade openness is possibly attributable to the fact that Tanzania unlocked its borders to international trades. In addition, granger causality test revealed that, there is no causal relationship between Trade openness and economic growth in Tanzania. Based on these findings, this study recommended that Government should encourage the production of domestic products for export purpose by developing more domestic industries and attracts more investors in the economy which will lead to increase the per capita income as well as foreign earnings that will promote economic growth of Tanzania.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Age Dependency Burden and Saving Rates in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 531-546
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ali Nawaz ◽  
Imran Sharif Chaudhry ◽  
Muhammad Ahmed Shehzad ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Age Dependency ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Saving Rates ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzes the impact of age dependency on gross savings for the period of 1975 to 2018 by applying ARDL and Granger causality techniques. The findings of the study suggest that young-age dependency and old-age dependency have a negative impact on gross savings in the long run. Granger causality test reveals that the causality between age-dependency of young and gross savings is bidirectional while the causality between age-dependency of old and gross savings is unidirectional. The study is also equipped with policy implications.

scholarly journals Analyzing the effect of financial development on economic growth – the Jordanian experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Izz Eddien N. Ananzeh ◽  
Mohammad D. Othman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Broad Concept ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study came to inspect the impact of the development of both financial market and banking system on the economic growth of Jordan based on the annual data covering the period 1993–2017. Through the use of many methodologies: Johansen cointegration test, (VECM), and Granger causality test, where real GDP was used as an indicator of economic growth, the real market value of stocks (Market Capitalization) (LCAP) and Share Turnover (LTURN) are indicators for the financial market, Money supply in the broad concept (LM2), and Local domestic credit (LCR) are indicators for the banking sector.The results of this study reported that the study variables are stationary, and in the level of order 2, they are integrated, and a long-run relationship between the study variables existed according to the Johansen co-integration test. VECM model result and the target model result confirm a short-run causality running from the all variables toward GDP. Granger causality test underline a single directional causality running from variables of our study to GDP and denote the short-run impact between LCAP, LTURN, LM2, LCR, and LGDP. The analysis of the variance decomposition shows that the development of the banking system affects economic growth almost equally with the impact of the development of the financial market. The results go to the same line of supply-leading hypothesis.

Financial development, oil dependence and economic growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramez Abubakr Badeeb ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to examine the validity of the question of whether oil dependence has a negative impact on the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Yemen. Design/methodology/approach The auto-regressive distributed lag approach for cointegration is used to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth by capturing the impact of oil dependence on this relationship. The Granger causality test, based on a vector error correction model (VECM) framework, is used to investigate the causal relationships between financial development and economic growth. Findings The most interesting finding is the negative sign of interaction term between financial development and oil dependence, which implies that the positive effect of financial development on economic growth decreases with the increasing oil dependence. The result of the VECM Granger causality test revealed the existence of unidirectional causality running from financial development to economic growth. Research limitations/implications The short sample period and the worry of losing degrees of freedom limited us when including control variables in the model. If the data are available in the future, other control variables can be added. Practical implications The government should reduce the level of oil dependence in Yemen by diversifying the country’s economy. Accelerating the pace and efficiency of the financial sector will bear fruitful returns in this regard. The government could achieve this strategy by playing a more proactive role in encouraging the expansion of credit to enable the financial sector to provide a more efficient intermediary role in mobilizing domestic savings and channeling them to productive investments across various economic sectors. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the impact of oil dependence on the finance-growth nexus in Yemen. A new indicator for oil dependence is also proposed.

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