scholarly journals Risk prediction for death and end-stage renal disease does not parallel the real-life trajectory of older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease – a Romanian center experience.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nastasa Andra ◽  
APETRII MUGUREL ◽  
Onofriescu Mihai ◽  
Nistor Ionut ◽  
Voroneanu Luminita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Risk Of Progression ◽  
Life Trajectory ◽  
End Stage

IntroductionIn 2016, the European Renal Best Practice (ERBP) group published a guideline on the management of older adults with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). Two risk scores were highlighted: Bansal score for mortality, and Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) for estimating progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESRD). Our group, as part of the ERBP team, aimed to apply these risk prediction tools in a cohort of older adults with eGFR <45 ml/min/1.73 m2.Material and methodsThis retrospective study included adults aged ≥65 years with CKD stage 3b-4, evaluated at a Romanian Outpatient Nephrology Department between October 2016 – October 2018. Bansal score was calculated for all subjects and then KFRE was used in the low mortality risk group. Outcomes were death or reaching ESRD. These outcomes were used to compare the difference between the estimated trajectory and real-life trajectory of patients. They were followed up until September 2019.ResultsFrom the total population (N=958 patients), more than half (N1=548, 57.2%) had a high mortality risk. In the remaining group with low mortality risk (N2=410, 42.8%), a significant percentage (75.4%) presented a low risk of progression to ESRD. Real-life events consisted of 164 deaths and 31 dialysis initiations. We found similar death rates in the two groups (high versus low risk of mortality). There was no difference in the rate of dialysis initiation between subjects with a high or low risk of progression to ESRD.ConclusionsRisk prognostication for death and ESRD did not parallel the real-life trajectory of our older patients with advanced CKD.

scholarly journals P0184RISK PREDICTION FOR DEATH AND END-STAGE RENAL DISEASE DOES NOT PARALLEL REAL-LIFE TRAJECTORY OF OLDER PATIENTS WITH ADVANCED CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE - A ROMANIAN CENTER EXPERIENCE

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andra Nastasa ◽  
Mugurel Apetrii ◽  
Mihai Onofriescu ◽  
Ionut Nistor ◽  
Hani Hussien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Kidney Failure ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Life Trajectory

Abstract Background and Aims In Europe, the share of the elderly (≥65 years of age) in the total population is estimated to increase from 19.2% in 2016 to 29.1% by 2080. In 2016, European Renal Best Practice (ERBP) group published a clinical practice guideline on management of older patients with CKD stage3b or higher (eGFR&lt;45ml/min/1.73 m2). Two risk stratifications scores were emphasized: Bansal score for prognosticating risk of death in medium term, and Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) for estimating progression of CKD stage 3b or 4 to ESRD. Our group, as part of the ERBP team, aimed to evaluate and apply the framework proposed by the guideline, consisting of risk prediction for both mortality and progression to ESRD in a cohort of elderly patients with advanced CKD. After dividing the population in groups of risk, we described their real-life trajectory in terms of either reaching ESRD/death. Method In this retrospective cohort study we included patients aged ≥65 years with CKD stage 3b-4, evaluated at the Outpatient Nephrology Department of Dr. C. I. Parhon Hospital from Iași, Romania, between October 2016 – October 2018. Individual risk for mortality was predicted using Bansal score, a nine-variable equation model. A total score of 7 (associated with a mortality risk of 53.82%) was established as cut-off value to differentiate between 2 groups: high risk of mortality (Bansal ≥ 7) and low risk of mortality (Bansal &lt; 7), given the fact that the ERBP guidelines don’t define a threshold for high risk in respect to mortality outcome. According to the algorithm proposed by the guideline, individual risk for progression to ESRD at 5 years was calculated in the low mortality risk group, using the 4-variable Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). Results The final cohort included 958 patients, with a mean age of 74 years (SD: 7), and with similar gender distribution (50.6% female vs. 49.4% male). Predicted trajectory in terms of reaching ESRD / death: When we applied Bansal score for mortality, the total study population (N=958) was divided in two groups: N1 with high risk of mortality, which comprised more than half of the cohort (548 patients, 57.2%) and N2 with low risk of mortality (410 patients, 42.8%). Individual risk of progression to ESRD was then estimated in N2 group, using 4-variable KFRE. Nearly ¾ of this group (75.4%, 309 subjects) presented a low-risk of progression and ¼ (24.6%, 101 subjects) had high-risk. Real-life trajectory in terms of reaching ESRD / death: From the entire cohort, 31 patients started renal replacement therapy (RRT) and 164 patients died as their first clinical event. The RRT initiation rate was 3.6% of N1 group (20 subjects) versus 2.7% of N2 group (11 subjects). The mortality rate was 15.5% of N1 group (85 deaths) versus 19.3% of N2 group (79 deaths). Figure 1 depicts the real-life trajectory of the population groups in terms of reaching ESRD / death. Conclusion In a large population from Eastern Europe, the application of the algorithm from the Clinical Practice Guideline on management of older patients with advanced CKD showed that risk prediction for death and end-stage renal disease does not parallel the real-life trajectory of the population. More than half of the subjects had a high risk of mortality, however we found similar death rates in the 2 groups (high versus low risk of mortality). Also, the RRT initiation rates were similar, irrespective of predicted mortality risk or kidney failure risk, suggesting that implementing the guideline in real-life settings is still a challenge.

scholarly journals Predicting mortality risk on dialysis and conservative care: development and internal validation of a prediction tool for older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chava L Ramspek ◽  
Wouter R Verberne ◽  
Marjolijn van Buren ◽  
Friedo W Dekker ◽  
Willem Jan W Bos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Treatment Decision ◽  
Prediction Tool ◽  
Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Conservative Care ◽  
Ckd Stage

Abstract Background Conservative care (CC) may be a valid alternative to dialysis for certain older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A model that predicts patient prognosis on both treatment pathways could be of value in shared decision-making. Therefore, the aim is to develop a prediction tool that predicts the mortality risk for the same patient for both dialysis and CC from the time of treatment decision. Methods CKD Stage 4/5 patients aged ≥70 years, treated at a single centre in the Netherlands, were included between 2004 and 2016. Predictors were collected at treatment decision and selected based on literature and an expert panel. Outcome was 2-year mortality. Basic and extended logistic regression models were developed for both the dialysis and CC groups. These models were internally validated with bootstrapping. Model performance was assessed with discrimination and calibration. Results In total, 366 patients were included, of which 126 chose CC. Pre-selected predictors for the basic model were age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, malignancy and cardiovascular disease. Discrimination was moderate, with optimism-corrected C-statistics ranging from 0.675 to 0.750. Calibration plots showed good calibration. Conclusions A prediction tool that predicts 2-year mortality was developed to provide older advanced CKD patients with individualized prognosis estimates for both dialysis and CC. Future studies are needed to test whether our findings hold in other CKD populations. Following external validation, this prediction tool could be used to compare a patient’s prognosis on both dialysis and CC, and help to inform treatment decision-making.

Pretransplant Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment in Older Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

Nephron ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Teddy Novais ◽  
Elodie Pongan ◽  
Frederic Gervais ◽  
Marie-Hélène Coste ◽  
Emmanuel Morelon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Activities Of Daily Living ◽  
Physical Function ◽  
Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment ◽  
Daily Living ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Comorbidity Burden

<b><i>Background:</i></b> In older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), the decision of kidney transplantation (KT) is a challenge for nephrologists. The use of comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is increasingly gaining interest into the process of decision-making about treatment modality choice for CKD. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of geriatric impairment and frailty in older dialysis and nondialysis patients with advanced CKD using a pretransplant CGA model and to identify geriatric impairments influencing the geriatricians’ recommendations for KT. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> An observational study was conducted with retrospective data from July 2017 to January 2020. Patients aged ≥65 years with advanced CKD, treated or not with dialysis, and referred by the nephrologist were included in the study. The CGA assessed comorbidity burden, cognition, mood, nutritional status, (instrumental) activities of daily living, physical function, frailty, and polypharmacy. Geriatric impairments influencing the geriatricians’ recommendations for KT were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regressions. <b><i>Results:</i></b> 156 patients were included (74.2 ± 3.5 years and 62.2% on dialysis). Geriatric conditions were highly prevalent in both dialysis and nondialysis groups. The rate of geriatric impairments was higher in dialysis patients regarding comorbidity burden, symptoms of depression, physical function, autonomy, and frailty. Geriatrician’s recommendations for KT were as follows: favorable (79.5%) versus not favorable or multidisciplinary discussion needed with nephrologists (20.5%). Dependence for Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) (odds ratio [OR] = 3.01 and 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.30–7.31), physical functions (OR = 2.91 and 95% CI = 1.08–7.87), and frailty (OR = 2.66 and 95% CI = 1.07–6.65) were found to be independent geriatric impairments influencing geriatrician’s recommendations for KT. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Understanding the burden of geriatric impairment provides an opportunity to direct KT decision-making and to guide interventions to prevent functional decline and preserve quality of life.

scholarly journals Use of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation to Determine the Risk of Progression to End-stage Renal Disease in Children With Chronic Kidney Disease

2018 ◽  
Vol 172 (2) ◽  
pp. 174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Winnicki ◽  
Charles E. McCulloch ◽  
Mark M. Mitsnefes ◽  
Susan L. Furth ◽  
Bradley A. Warady ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
Kidney Failure ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
Risk Equation ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Risk Of Progression ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage

scholarly journals Quality of Care in Chronic Kidney Disease and Incidence of End-Stage Renal Disease in Older Patients

Medical Care ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol Publish Ahead of Print ◽  
Author(s):  
Shingo Fukuma ◽  
Tatsuyoshi Ikenoue ◽  
Sayaka Shimizu ◽  
Edward C. Norton ◽  
Rajiv Saran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Quality Of Care ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage Renal Disease ◽  
Older Patients ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage

scholarly journals Comparing the Effect of Folic Acid and Pentoxifylline on Delaying Dialysis Initiation in Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

Nutrients ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2192
Author(s):  
Hsun Yang ◽  
Shiun-Yang Juang ◽  
Kuan-Fu Liao ◽  
Yi-Hsin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Folic Acid ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Index Date ◽  
Dialysis Initiation ◽  
Nutrient Loss ◽  
Research Database ◽  
Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage

Background: We hypothesized that the nutrient loss and chronic inflammation status may stimulate progression in advanced chronic kidney disease. Therefore, we aimed to generate a study to state the influence of combined nutritional and anti-inflammatory interventions. Methods: The registry from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan was searched for 20–90 years individuals who had certified end-stage renal disease. From January 2005 through December 2010, the diagnosis code ICD-9 585 (chronic kidney disease, CKD) plus erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) use was defined as entering advanced chronic kidney disease. The ESA starting date was defined as the first index date, whereas the initiation day of maintenance dialysis was defined as the second index date. The duration between the index dates was analyzed in different medical treatments. Results: There were 10,954 patients analyzed. The combination therapy resulted in the longest duration (n = 2184, median 145 days, p < 0.001) before the dialysis initiation compared with folic acid (n = 5073, median 111 days), pentoxifylline (n = 1119, median 102 days, p = 0.654), and no drug group (control, n = 2578, median 89 days, p < 0.001). Lacking eGFR data and the retrospective nature are important limitations. Conclusions: In patients with advanced CKD on the ESA treatment, the combination of folic acid and pentoxifylline was associated with delayed initiation of hemodialysis.

scholarly journals Effect of Arteriovenous Fistula Creation on Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressure in Patients With Pre-dialysis Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 858-867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy O Mathew ◽  
Jerome Fleg ◽  
Janani Rangaswami ◽  
Bo Cai ◽  
Arif Asif ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Arteriovenous Fistula ◽  
Resistant Hypertension ◽  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Treatment Resistant ◽  
Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Stage Renal Disease ◽  
End Stage

AbstractBACKGROUNDCentral arteriovenous fistula (cAVF) has been investigated as a therapeutic measure for treatment-resistant hypertension in patients without advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). There is considerable experience with the use of AVF for hemodialysis in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, there is sparse data on the blood pressure (BP) effects of an AVF among patients with ESRD. We hypothesized that AVF creation would significantly reduce BP compared with patients who did not have an AVF among patients with ESRD before starting hemodialysis.METHODSBPs were compared during the 12 months before hemodialysis initiation in 399 patients with an AVF or AV graft created and 4,696 patients without either.RESULTSAfter propensity score matching 1:2 ratio (AVF to no AVF), repeated measures analysis of variance revealed significant reductions of –1.7 mm Hg systolic and –3.9 mm Hg diastolic BP 12 months in patients after AVF creation; P = 0.025 and P &lt; 0.001, respectively, compared with those with no AVF.CONCLUSIONSThese findings suggest that AVF creation results in modest BP reduction in patients with pre-dialysis ESRD who require AVF for eventual hemodialysis therapy. Preferential diastolic BP reduction suggests that greater work is needed to characterize the ideal patient subset in which to use cAVF for treatment-resistant hypertension in those without advanced CKD.

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