scholarly journals Analysis of factors affecting the savings of private profit companies in Bosnia and Herzegovina expressed in relative amount of GDP by applying the ARDL methodology

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Irma Đidelija
Keyword(s):  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Time Deposits ◽  
Private Profit ◽  
Private Savings ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose: This paper is aimed at analyzing one component of private savings and its factors, namely the savings of private profit companies. Methodology: An analysis was conducted of the savings of the private profit companies in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), which, viewed as the sum of savings and time deposits, recorded a cumulative growth of 78.72% until the outbreak of the global financial crisis. In order to examine what factors favored such positive developments the ARDL methodology was applied. Results: The variables that statistically significantly affect the savings of private profit companies in BiH are GDP growth rate, deposit interest rate, money supply in % of GDP and current account balance in % of GDP (marginally significant at 6% significance level). Conclusion: The methodology applied confirmed the hypothesis of the paper, which proposes that the savings of private profit companies in BiH are significantly influenced by variables of the financial type.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD SAVING FACTORS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA-APPLICATION OF ARDL METHODOLOGY

2020 ◽  
Vol XVIII (2) ◽  
pp. 73-83
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Private Saving ◽  
Household Saving ◽  
Time Deposits ◽  
Methodological Tool ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Most papers in the field of private saving deal with the analysis of private saving as a whole without special consideration of its individual components. This paper is, therefore, focused on the analysis of one of the components of private saving and its factors, and that is the household saving. The analysis was conducted on household saving in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), which, viewed as the sum of saving and time deposits, recorded a cumulative growth of 97% from the outbreak of the global financial crisis until September 2016. The aim of this research is to determine which factors favored the positive trends of household saving in BiH in the period 2000q1-2016q3. As a methodological tool for achieving the research goal and testing the defined hypothesis, the ARDL methodology was used. By applying the ARDL methodology, the work hypothesis was confirmed. Macroeconomic factors have an impact on household saving in BiH.

scholarly journals 28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Twenty-eight months after the onset of the global financial crisis of August 2008, the evidence on post-crisis GDP growth emerging from a sample of 51 advanced and emerging countries is flattering for inflation targeting countries relative to their peers. The positive effect of IT is not explained away by plausible pre-crisis determinants of post-crisis performance, such as growth in private credit, ratios of short-term debt to GDP, reserves to short-term debt and reserves to GDP, capital account restrictions, total capital inflows, trade openness, current account balance and exchange rate flexibility, or post-crisis drivers such as the growth performance of trading partners and changes in terms of trade. We find that inflation targeting countries lowered nominal and real interest rates more sharply than other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and had sharp real depreciations without a relative deterioration in their risk assessment by markets. While the task of establishing causal relationships from cross-sectional macroeconomics series is daunting, our reading of this evidence is consistent with the resilience of IT countries being related to their ability to loosen their monetary policy when most needed, thereby avoiding deflation scares and the zero lower bound on interest rates.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI HARGA DAN INTEGRASI HARGA OLEIN

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-48
Author(s):  
Desak Putu Ristami Paramita ◽  
Nunung Nuryartono ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Futures Trading ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
In The Beginning

Olein production increased by 107.5 percent from 2002 to 2013. There was a change in consumption patterns where the consumption of olein intended for export has risen from only 39 percent in 2002 to 65 percent in 2013. In the beginning of 2008, olein prices increased due to the global financial crisis. In the end of 2008, olein prices decreased but since then olein prices fluctuations until the end of 2014. Many factors affecting the price fluctuations such as macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. Commodity market participants need to take action in response to price fluctuations by participating in commodity futures trading. Olein futures trading commodity in Indonesia is not well developed. This is indicated by small volumes of the transaction of olein futures contracts in Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) causing market participants to not using ICDX futures prices as a reference. The participants actually use the price of the Rotterdam exchange for their transactions of buying and selling. Therefore, this study aims to analyze factors influencing olein prices and analyze olein prices integration by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. Results showed that exchange rates, interest rates, money supply, CPO prices, and Indonesia's GDP affect olein prices. In addition, there is an integration between the physical prices, futures prices, and world reference prices in the long term. Key words : Factors Affecting Price, Olein, Price Integration, VECM

scholarly journals Recent trends in the Croatian agricultural business sector

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 109-113
Author(s):  
Josip Juračak ◽  
Dario Vukalović
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Agricultural Business ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
National Business

The purpose of this paper is to explore recent trends in the Croatian agriculture and forestry business sector and compare it with the Croatian economy as a whole. This topic is considered interesting because recent business years have been heavily influenced by the global financial crisis. Many authors would say that agriculture, as a specific branch of the economy, does not follow general trends, but is affected rather by other factors, especially such as environmental ones. The global financial crisis had the most negative impact on the Croatian economy in the 2008/2009 period, when the GDP growth rate tumbled from 2.4% to -5.8%. Although some positive movements have been recorded since 2009, a recession is still going on. Based on information from the National Financial Agency (FINA) database we found that during the period 2007-2011, agricultural firms experienced the same trends as the whole economy, except in terms of average monthly salaries and employment. However, due to the impact of / on? agricultural products prices and yields, in two year period from 2008 to 2010, agricultural firms recorded an almost linear fall in revenues, while the national business sector on the whole experienced a sharp fall in revenues in 2009 and then only a modest fall in 2010.

Two Crises Separated by a Decade: Political Economy of Trade Strategy and Reserves Accumulation in East Asia

2021 ◽  
pp. 263168462110320
Author(s):  
Biswajit Nag ◽  
Partha Ray
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Major Shift ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This article seeks to explore the relationship between the global financial crisis (2007–2009) and the East Asian crisis (1997–1999) via the contribution of select East Asian countries, which led to the formation of the ‘global imbalance’, that is, experience of substantial and consistent current account surplus. Taking a cue from Bernanke’s ‘savings glut’ hypothesis, which has held ‘global imbalance’ to be a factor behind the global financial crisis, specifically, the article argues that in these countries, the nature of current account balance has undergone a sea change since the end of the 1990s. They also accumulated a substantial amount of foreign exchange reserves since then along with a major shift of trade regime and consequent trade surplus in all these countries. The article conjectures that the mishandling of the rescue package by International Monetary Fund could have induced them to go aggressively for accumulation of forex reserves. Thus, the two crises separated by a decade and in different continents are, indeed, linked through providing an incentive for brewing up of global imbalance via an activist trade policy in select East Asian countries. Seen in this context and from this standpoint, the two crises, indeed, appear to be close siblings! JEL Classification: F41, F62, O53

The Impact of Income Terms of Trade Changes on Private Savings

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-42
Author(s):  
Grant G. L. Yang ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Independent Innovation ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Innovation Ability ◽  
Private Savings ◽  
The Impact

The terms-of-trade fluctuations have been an important factor in explaining macroeconomic capacity while foreign demand for certain export commodities is inflexible and has a significant impact on their economies in the shocks of external terms of trade. Changes in the external terms of trade might harm private savings while higher inflation rates and lower levels of social security tend to increase private savings due to higher uncertainty. This paper analyzes the characteristics of China’s income terms of trade (ITT) and private savings from 2000 to 2019 based on the related macroeconomic literature and the functioning factors affecting the long-term private savings. Empirical regression models are constructed, and the results suggest that improvement of income terms of trade by 1% leads to an increase in private saving rate by 0.413%, but this relationship has the opposite effect after the 2008 global financial crisis. Policy recommendations are proposed on the promotion of independent innovation ability of foreign trade and the optimization of trade structure along with other progressive analyses on China’s current problems in foreign trade.

Bank Runs in China: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuefang Liu ◽  
W. Robert J. Alexander ◽  
Sajid Anwar
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Panel Model ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Gap

The rise of China as a global economic power has caused concern that a crisis in Chinese banking could lead to a worldwide downturn similar to the Global Financial Crisis. Early warning indicators, such as the credit-to-GDP gap and the debt service ratio, are worrying. It is, therefore, worthwhile to study the key factors affecting bank deposits in China. We estimate a dynamic panel model applied to a panel of 63 Chinese banks and find that bank-specific fundamentals, as opposed to macroeconomic factors, are the main drivers of changes in bank deposits. JEL: E44, G21, G28

scholarly journals Analysis of the Banking Sector Performance in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia Before and After the Global Financial Crisis

ECONOMICS ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 83-101
Author(s):  
Antonija Bošnjak ◽  
Abeer Hassan ◽  
Kieran James
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Nonperforming Loans ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Communist Countries

Summary The focus of this study is the banking sector of the three neighbouring countries Bosnia and Herzegovina; Montenegro; and Serbia. These are former communist countries which have been going through the transition from centrally-planned economies to open market economies over the past 25 years. During the transition process, structural reforms were conducted to transform the banking sector into a sector suitable for open market economy. These reforms are considered to be the most successful ones in the region. Before the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09, the economies of the three selected countries were experiencing credit booms. The aim of this research was to examine how the banking sector is performing on an aggregated level years after the crisis and whether the performance is better or worse compared to the pre-crisis period. The findings show that the banking sector was performing better before the crisis in all three countries. After the crisis, the three countries experienced prolonged slow credit growth and had higher nonperforming loans.

Determinants of banks’ dividend payment decisions: evidence from MENA countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 847-871
Author(s):  
Akram Ramadan Budagaga
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Dividend Payment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose This paper aims to investigate bank-specific determinants affecting the dividend policy of commercial banks listed in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region countries. Design/methodology/approach The study uses pooled and panel tobit and logit regression analyses based on 16-year unbalanced data with 1,593 firm-year observations collecting from 117 commercial banks listed in 11 MENA countries. Findings The results indicated that the main bank-specific factors affecting dividend payment decisions are bank size, profitability, capital adequacy, credit risk and bank age in the context of the MENA emerging markets. In addition, the analysis showed that the yearly dummy for the global financial crisis (2008–2009) has a significant negative effect, while the yearly dummy for the Arabic spring crisis (2010–2011) has no significant effect on the dividend payment decision of banks listed in the MENA region. Furthermore, the growth opportunity is not one of the key factors affecting dividend policies by banks in MENA emerging markets. Considering this information, it is reasonable to conclude that MENA region banks’ dividend decisions follow investment decisions. In other words, the dividend decisions and investment decisions are independent of each other. The findings support theories (hypotheses) of dividends such as residual, signalling, regulatory pressures, transaction cost and lifecycle. Research limitations/implications This study is restricted to a sample of one type of financial firm, conventional commercial banks listed in the MENA markets because of the problem of missing data and limited information on other financial firms for the same period, particularly Islamic banks. Moreover, the focus of this study was on factors that are considered bank fundamentals. However, ownership variables were not included in the study because of unavailability. Practical implications The results of this study have several important implications for banks’ dividend policymakers, regulators, analysts and investors. Dividend policymakers in MENA emerging markets seem to use residual dividend policy, in which they distribute dividends according to what is left over after all acceptable investment opportunities have been undertaken. These inconsistent, unstable dividend policy trends make it difficult for investors to predict future dividend decisions. Further, this practise may convey information to shareholders about a lack of positive future investment opportunities. This may negatively affect the share value of banks. Acquiring a broad understanding of the dividend behaviour of MENA banks enables regulators to take more effective regulatory actions to protect shareholders and depositors. Finally, the results of this study can help analysts and investors build their dividends predictions and investment strategies. Originality/value The banking sector plays a disproportionately large role in the development of emerging economies. Therefore, this study is one of the first to examine a large cross-country sample of MENA banks (117) for an extensive period (2000–2015). The study includes both the Global financial crisis and Arab uprising periods, including after the liberalization and recent economic reforms and structural changes in financial sectors across MENA countries.

scholarly journals The economic crisis and the insurance industry: The evidence from the ex-Yugoslavia region

2010 ◽  
Vol 55 (185) ◽  
pp. 129-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Njegomir ◽  
Boris Marovic ◽  
Rado Maksimovic
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Life Insurance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Insurance Premium ◽  
Time Investment ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the impact of the economic crisis on the insurance industries of the ex-Yugoslavia region. The analysis encompasses five countries: Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and FYR Macedonia. We examine insurance industry specifics separately for each country for the period 2004-2008 and for the first six months of 2009. While the impact of the crisis varies between countries, the research results indicate that the global financial crisis has had limited overall impact on the regional insurance industry. However the current recession resulted in negative premium growth in Serbia, Croatia and FYR Macedonia while the growth in Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina declined. At the same time investment returns have declined and claims have risen in all countries. The crisis had more pronounced impact on non-life insurance premium growth in less developed insurance markets. In developed markets, namely Slovenia and Croatia, the crisis had greater impact on life insurance premium growth.

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