scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI HARGA DAN INTEGRASI HARGA OLEIN

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-48
Author(s):  
Desak Putu Ristami Paramita ◽  
Nunung Nuryartono ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Futures Trading ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
In The Beginning

Olein production increased by 107.5 percent from 2002 to 2013. There was a change in consumption patterns where the consumption of olein intended for export has risen from only 39 percent in 2002 to 65 percent in 2013. In the beginning of 2008, olein prices increased due to the global financial crisis. In the end of 2008, olein prices decreased but since then olein prices fluctuations until the end of 2014. Many factors affecting the price fluctuations such as macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. Commodity market participants need to take action in response to price fluctuations by participating in commodity futures trading. Olein futures trading commodity in Indonesia is not well developed. This is indicated by small volumes of the transaction of olein futures contracts in Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) causing market participants to not using ICDX futures prices as a reference. The participants actually use the price of the Rotterdam exchange for their transactions of buying and selling. Therefore, this study aims to analyze factors influencing olein prices and analyze olein prices integration by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. Results showed that exchange rates, interest rates, money supply, CPO prices, and Indonesia's GDP affect olein prices. In addition, there is an integration between the physical prices, futures prices, and world reference prices in the long term. Key words : Factors Affecting Price, Olein, Price Integration, VECM

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI HARGA DAN INTEGRASI HARGA OLEIN

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-48
Author(s):  
Desak Putu Ristami Paramita ◽  
Nunung Nuryartono ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Futures Trading ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
In The Beginning

Olein production increased by 107.5 percent from 2002 to 2013. There was a change in consumption patterns where the consumption of olein intended for export has risen from only 39 percent in 2002 to 65 percent in 2013. In the beginning of 2008, olein prices increased due to the global financial crisis. In the end of 2008, olein prices decreased but since then olein prices fluctuations until the end of 2014. Many factors affecting the price fluctuations such as macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. Commodity market participants need to take action in response to price fluctuations by participating in commodity futures trading. Olein futures trading commodity in Indonesia is not well developed. This is indicated by small volumes of the transaction of olein futures contracts in Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) causing market participants to not using ICDX futures prices as a reference. The participants actually use the price of the Rotterdam exchange for their transactions of buying and selling. Therefore, this study aims to analyze factors influencing olein prices and analyze olein prices integration by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. Results showed that exchange rates, interest rates, money supply, CPO prices, and Indonesia's GDP affect olein prices. In addition, there is an integration between the physical prices, futures prices, and world reference prices in the long term. Key words : Factors Affecting Price, Olein, Price Integration, VECM

scholarly journals Ketahanan Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia Terhadap Fluktuasi Makroekonomi dalam Negeri dan Suku Bunga Dana Federal Reserve

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-361
Author(s):  
Donna Sita Soraya Kristanti Jatmiko ◽  
Djoni Djatnika ◽  
Setiawan Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Internal And External Factors

The development of banking in a country cannot be separated from internal and external factors that can influence it. The monetary crisis in 1998 and the global financial crisis in 2008 are some examples that show that the banking sector can be affected by the surrounding economic conditions, both from within and outside the country. The purpose of this study is to determine the resilience of Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia if there are shocks that occur in macroeconomics, in this case, namely inflation, exchange rates, Bank Indonesia benchmark interest rate (BI rate), SBIS yields (rSBIS) and Federal Reserve funds interest rates. (FFR). This study uses the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods. The conclusion of this study is that Non-Performing Financing (NPF) and Return on Assets (ROA) in Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia tend to be more resistant to fluctuations that occur in domestic macroeconomics and FFR. The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) is relatively stable in responding to a shock, while the Return on Equity (ROE) and Financing Deposit Ratio (FDR) have fluctuated in the long term in other words, they are more vulnerable to shocks and fluctuations that occur in domestic macroeconomic variables and FFR.

scholarly journals Analysis of Interest Rate Impact on the Profitability Level of the Banking System in Albania during the Period 2005 -2014

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 203
Author(s):  
Sokol Ndoka ◽  
Anilda Bozdo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Banking System ◽  
The Other ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This study is an analysis of the movement and impact of interest rates on the profitability level of the banking system in Albania. This analysis covers a 10-year timeframe (is organized in three time segments - before, during and after the financial crisis), taking into consideration the critical point of the years 2008-2009 considered as the “peak” of the global financial crisis. Such separation is made in order to see the possible changes of each period of time and to identify the impact differences of this factor in each period of study. This study is based on the hypothesis that the decrease of the interest rate has positively affected the income increase from interest as a result of the impact of two factors, negative levels of Gaps and an increased level of spread toward the average assets. As a matter of fact, it has neutralized on a certain level the other risks such as that of the loan which has dominated over the other risks. This paper is based on an empirical study with secondary quantitative and qualitative data. This study provides a considerable contribution in the framework of identification of factors affecting the profitability of the banking system in Albania, namely in the context of interest rate; In addition, this study aims at highlighting the importance of open Gaps minimization for the efficient profitability increase of the financial system.

Conclusions

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Zero Bound

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....

Determinants of Spot and Forward Interest Rates in Brazil in an International Liquidity Scenario: An Econometric Analysis for the Period 2007-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Pedro Raffy Vartanian ◽  
Sérgio Gozzi Citro ◽  
Paulo Rogério Scarano
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
International Liquidity ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
International Financial Crises ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Level Of Activity ◽  
Systemic Crisis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Over the last 25 years, Brazil has been among the countries with the highest interest rates globally. High interest rates have been necessary during several recent times, such as in the period from 1997 to 1999, due to the repeated international financial crises that have plagued the country. From 1999, a sustained path of interest rate reduction begun. With the outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis, the Brazilian monetary authorities promoted a new round of falling domestic interest rates in response to the recessive effects and the threat of a systemic crisis that could hang over the national financial system. In 2012, a set of interventionist nature policies led to a decrease in the Selic rate. Thus, looking at the last 25 years, it appears that many factors have started to influence the trajectory of Brazilian interest rates. In this context, the present work aims to identify, based on empirical research, the determinants of spot and future interest rates. As a methodology, the research uses a multivariate econometric vector autoregressive model (VAR) with error correction (VEC). The analysis covers the years 2017 to 2019, corresponding to the period in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The results evidence that both the spot rate and the DI future can be determined by the fluctuations in the level of inflation and by the level of activity and the real exchange rate, in addition to the effects of the lagged variables themselves.

scholarly journals 28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Twenty-eight months after the onset of the global financial crisis of August 2008, the evidence on post-crisis GDP growth emerging from a sample of 51 advanced and emerging countries is flattering for inflation targeting countries relative to their peers. The positive effect of IT is not explained away by plausible pre-crisis determinants of post-crisis performance, such as growth in private credit, ratios of short-term debt to GDP, reserves to short-term debt and reserves to GDP, capital account restrictions, total capital inflows, trade openness, current account balance and exchange rate flexibility, or post-crisis drivers such as the growth performance of trading partners and changes in terms of trade. We find that inflation targeting countries lowered nominal and real interest rates more sharply than other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and had sharp real depreciations without a relative deterioration in their risk assessment by markets. While the task of establishing causal relationships from cross-sectional macroeconomics series is daunting, our reading of this evidence is consistent with the resilience of IT countries being related to their ability to loosen their monetary policy when most needed, thereby avoiding deflation scares and the zero lower bound on interest rates.

scholarly journals Confidence in future monetary policy as a way to overcome the liquidity trap

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-135
Author(s):  
Olga Kuznetsova ◽  
Sergey Merzlyakov ◽  
Sergey Pekarski
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Consistency ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has changed the landscape for monetary policy. Many central banks in developed economies had to employ various unconventional policy tools to overcome a liquidity trap. These included large-scale asset purchase programs, forward guidance and negative interest rate policies. While recently, some central banks were able to return to conventional monetary policy, for many countries the effectiveness of unconventional policies remains an issue. In this paper we assess diverse practices of unconventional monetary policy with a particular focus on expectations and time consistency. The principal aspect of successful policy in terms of overcoming a liquidity trap is the confidence that interest rates will remain low for a prolonged period. However, forming such expectations faces the problem of time inconsistency of optimal policy. We discuss some directions to solve this problem.

scholarly journals PANDEMIC CRISIS AND ITS EFFECTS ON BULGARIAN BANKING SYSTEM’S EFFICIENCY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gergana Mihaylova-Borisova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The economies are once again facing the challenges of another crisis related to the spread of coronavirus in 2020. The banking sector, being one of the main intermediaries in the economies, is also affected by the spread of the new crisis, which is different compared to the previous crises such as the global financial crisis in 2008 and the European debt crisis in 2012-2013. Still, the banking sector in Bulgaria suffers from the pandemic crisis due to decelerated growth rate of loans, provided to households and non-financial enterprises, as well as declining profits related to the narrowing spread between interest rates on loans and deposits. The pandemic crisis, which later turned into an economic one, is having a negative impact on the efficiency of the banking system. To prove the negative impact of the pandemic crisis on the efficiency of banks, the non-parametric method for measuring the efficiency, the so-called Data envelopment analysis (DEA), is used.

scholarly journals r minus g negative

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (52) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Mauro ◽  
Jing Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
High Government ◽  
Traditional Assumption ◽  
Historical Database ◽  
Sovereign Defaults ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly, despite high government debts? Our paper undertakes an empirical analysis of interestgrowth differentials, using the largest historical database on average effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over up to 200 years. We document that negative differentials have occurred more often than not, in both advanced and emerging economies, and have often persisted for long historical stretches. Moreover, differentials are no higher prior to sovereign defaults than in normal times. Marginal (rather than average) government borrowing costs often rise abruptly and sharply, but just prior to default. Based on these results, our answer is: not really.

scholarly journals ECB policy responses between 2007 and 2014: A chronological analysis and an assessment of their effects

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 455-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Rodríguez ◽  
Carlos Carrasco
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Lender Of Last Resort ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
The One ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The paper analyses the monetary policy responses of the European Central Bank (ECB) to the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Our goals are on the one hand to explain chronologically the main measures in conventional and unconventional policies adopted by the ECB and on the other hand to analyse their effects on key interest rates, monetary aggregates and the money multiplier. The assessment is that the ECB?s monetary policy responses to the crisis have been ?too little, too late?, constrained by the institutional framework, which prevents the ECB from acting as a true central bank with the role of lender of last resort.

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