scholarly journals Near-surface meteorology during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): evaluation of reanalyses and global climate models

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 427-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. de Boer ◽  
M. D. Shupe ◽  
P. M. Caldwell ◽  
S. E. Bauer ◽  
O. Persson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Energy ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ocean Study ◽  
Arctic Summer

Abstract. Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)-Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

scholarly journals Near-surface meteorology during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): evaluation of reanalyses and global climate models

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 19421-19470 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. de Boer ◽  
M. D. Shupe ◽  
P. M. Caldwell ◽  
S. E. Bauer ◽  
P. O. G. Persson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Energy ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ocean Study ◽  
Arctic Summer

Abstract. Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE) and two global climate models (CAM5 and NASA GISS ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, is demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the need to evaluate individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms resulting in the best net energy budget.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the surface energy budget to drifting snow as simulated by MAR in coastal Adelie Land, Antarctica

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Le Toumelin ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Vincent Favier ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Atmosphere ◽  
Drifting Snow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In order to understand the evolution of the climate of Antarctica, dominant processes that control surface and low-atmosphere meteorology need to be accurately captured in climate models. We used the regional climate model MAR (v3.11) at 10 km horizontal resolution, forced by ERA5 reanalysis over a 9-year period (2010–2018), to study the impact of drifting snow (designing here the wind-driven transport of snow particles below and above 2 m) on the near-surface atmosphere and surface in Adelie Land, East Antarctica. Two model runs were performed, respectively with and without drifting snow, and compared to half-hourly in situ observations at D17, a coastal and windy location of Adelie Land. We show that sublimation of drifting-snow particles in the atmosphere drives the difference between model runs and is responsible for significant impacts on the near-surface atmosphere. By cooling the low atmosphere and increasing its relative humidity, drifting snow also reduces sensible and latent heat exchanges at the surface (−5.9 W m−2 on average). Moreover, large and dense drifting-snow layers act as near-surface cloud by interacting with incoming radiative fluxes, enhancing incoming longwave radiations and reducing incoming shortwave radiations in summer (net radiative forcing: 5.9 W m−2). Even if drifting snow modifies these processes involved in surface-atmosphere interactions, the total surface energy budget is only slightly modified by introducing drifting snow, because of compensating effects in surface energy fluxes. The drifting-snow driven effects are not prominent near the surface but peak higher in the boundary layer (fifth vertical level, 38 m) where drifting snow sublimation is the most pronounced. Accounting for drifting snow in MAR generally improves the comparison at D17, more especially for the representation of relative humidity (mean bias reduced from −11.1 % to 2.9 %) and incoming longwave radiation (mean bias reduced from −7.6 W m−2 to −1.5 W m−2). Consequently, our results suggest that a detailed representation of drifting-snow processes is required in climate models to better capture the near–surface meteorology and surface–atmosphere interactions in coastal Adelie Land.

scholarly journals Albedo parametrization and reversibility of sea ice decay

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Müller-Stoffels ◽  
R. Wackerbauer
Keyword(s):  
Surface Energy ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Surface Energy Budget

Abstract. The Arctic's sea ice cover has been receding rapidly in recent years, and global climate models typically predict a further decline over the next century. It is an open question whether a possible loss of Arctic sea ice is reversible. We study the stability of Arctic model sea ice in a conceptual, two-dimensional energy-based regular network model of the ice-ocean layer that considers ARM's longwave radiative budget data and SHEBA albedo measurements. Seasonal ice cover, perennial ice and perennial open water are asymptotic states accessible by the model. We show that the shape of albedo parameterization near the melting temperature differentiates between reversible continuous sea ice decrease under atmospheric forcing and hysteresis behavior. Fixed points induced solely by the surface energy budget are essential for understanding the interaction of surface energy with the radiative forcing and the underlying body of ice/water, particularly close to a bifurcation point. Future studies will explore ice edge stability and reversibility in this lattice model, generalized to a latitudinal transect with spatiotemporal lateral atmospheric heat transfer and high spatial resolution.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the surface energy budget to drifting snow as simulated by MAR in coastal Adelie Land, Antarctica

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 3595-3614
Author(s):  
Louis Le Toumelin ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Vincent Favier ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Atmosphere ◽  
Drifting Snow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In order to understand the evolution of the climate of Antarctica, dominant processes that control surface and low-atmosphere meteorology need to be accurately captured in climate models. We used the regional climate model MAR (v3.11) at 10 km horizontal resolution, forced by ERA5 reanalysis over a 9-year period (2010–2018) to study the impact of drifting snow (designating here the wind-driven transport of snow particles below and above 2 m) on the near-surface atmosphere and surface in Adelie Land, East Antarctica. Two model runs were performed, one with and one without drifting snow, and compared to half-hourly in situ observations at D17, a coastal and windy location of Adelie Land. We show that sublimation of drifting-snow particles in the atmosphere drives the difference between model runs and is responsible for significant impacts on the near-surface atmosphere. By cooling the low atmosphere and increasing its relative humidity, drifting snow also reduces sensible and latent heat exchanges at the surface (−5.7 W m−2 on average). Moreover, large and dense drifting-snow layers act as near-surface cloud by interacting with incoming radiative fluxes, enhancing incoming longwave radiation and reducing incoming shortwave radiation in summer (net radiative forcing: 5.7 W m−2). Even if drifting snow modifies these processes involved in surface–atmosphere interactions, the total surface energy budget is only slightly modified by introducing drifting snow because of compensating effects in surface energy fluxes. The drifting-snow driven effects are not prominent near the surface but peak higher in the boundary layer (fourth vertical level, 12 m) where drifting-snow sublimation is the most pronounced. Accounting for drifting snow in MAR generally improves the comparison at D17, especially for the representation of relative humidity (mean bias reduced from −14.0 % to −0.7 %) and incoming longwave radiation (mean bias reduced from −20.4 W m−2 to −14.9 W m−2). Consequently, our results suggest that a detailed representation of drifting-snow processes is required in climate models to better capture the near-surface meteorology and surface–atmosphere interactions in coastal Adelie Land.

scholarly journals Observational Evidence Linking Arctic Supercooled Liquid Cloud Biases in CESM to Snowfall Processes

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 4477-4495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elin A. McIlhattan ◽  
Tristan S. L’Ecuyer ◽  
Nathaniel B. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Surface Energy Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Supercooled Liquid ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Community Earth System Model

Clouds are a key regulator of Earth’s surface energy balance. The presence or absence of clouds, along with their macroscale and microscale characteristics, is the primary factor modulating the amount of radiation incident on the surface. Recent observational studies in the Arctic highlight the ubiquity of supercooled liquid-containing clouds (LCCs) and their disproportionately large impact on surface melt. Global climate models (GCMs) do not simulate enough Arctic LCCs compared to observations, and thus fail to represent the surface energy balance correctly. This work utilizes spaceborne observations from NASA’s A-Train satellite constellation to explore physical processes behind LCCs and surface energy biases in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project output. On average CESM-LE underestimates LCC frequency by ~18% over the Arctic, resulting in a ~20 W m−2 bias in downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) over the ~18 × 106 km2 area examined. Collocated observations of falling snow and LCCs indicate that Arctic LCCs produce precipitation ~13% of the time. Conversely, CESM-LE generates snow in ~70% of LCCs. This result indicates that the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process—the growth of ice at the expense of supercooled liquid—may be too strong in the model, causing ice to scavenge polar supercooled cloud liquid too efficiently. Ground-based observations from Summit Station, Greenland, provide further evidence of these biases on a more local scale, suggesting that CESM-LE overestimates snow frequency in LCCs by ~52% at the center of the ice sheet leading to ~21% too few LCCs and ~24 W m−2 too little DLR.

scholarly journals Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Docquier ◽  
Torben Koenigk
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Area And Volume

AbstractArctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and select models that best capture the observed Arctic sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport to refine model projections of Arctic sea ice. This model selection leads to lower Arctic sea-ice area and volume relative to the multi-model mean without model selection and summer ice-free conditions could occur as early as around 2035. These results highlight a potential underestimation of future Arctic sea-ice loss when including all CMIP6 models.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in European and North Atlantic Seasonal Wind Climate Derived from CMIP5 Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6467-6490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimmo Ruosteenoja ◽  
Timo Vihma ◽  
Ari Venäläinen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Seasonal Wind ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Future changes in geostrophic winds over Europe and the North Atlantic region were studied utilizing output data from 21 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). Changes in temporal means, extremes, and the joint distribution of speed and direction were considered. In concordance with previous research, the time mean and extreme scalar wind speeds do not change pronouncedly in response to the projected climate change; some degree of weakening occurs in the majority of the domain. Nevertheless, substantial changes in high wind speeds are identified when studying the geostrophic winds from different directions separately. In particular, in northern Europe in autumn and in parts of northwestern Europe in winter, the frequency of strong westerly winds is projected to increase by up to 50%. Concurrently, easterly winds become less common. In addition, we evaluated the potential of the GCMs to simulate changes in the near-surface true wind speeds. In ocean areas, changes in the true and geostrophic winds are mainly consistent and the emerging differences can be explained (e.g., by the retreat of Arctic sea ice). Conversely, in several GCMs the continental wind speed response proved to be predominantly determined by fairly arbitrary changes in the surface properties rather than by changes in the atmospheric circulation. Accordingly, true wind projections derived directly from the model output should be treated with caution since they do not necessarily reflect the actual atmospheric response to global warming.

scholarly journals Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1383-1406 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Hezel ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
F. Massonnet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Abstract. Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea ice extent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a~subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all 9 models. RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline due to continued warming on longer time scales. These two scenarios imply that summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in 7 of 9 models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent.

The extreme Greenland melt season of 2019 in a 16-year time series of surface energy balance at the Kangerlussuaq transect

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Kuipers Munneke ◽  
Carleen Reijmer ◽  
Paul Smeets ◽  
Michiel van den Broeke
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Energy ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
High Surface ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ablation Area ◽  
Surface Melt

<p>In 2019, the Kangerlussuaq transect has experienced a record surface melt season at some stations, exceeding even the melt seasons of 2010 and 2012. We demonstrate that net radiation has been driving the high surface melt rates especially in the higher parts of the transect.</p><p>Since 2003, continuous measurements of the surface energy budget are made in a transect of four automatic weather stations, spanning the ablation area close to the ice edge to the accumulation are of the Greenland Ice Sheet. All available data have been homogenized and corrected, and an unprecedented time series of surface energy budget is presented here, including meltwater production. In this contribution, the melt season of 2019 is put into the longer-term context, and precise atmospheric drivers of the melt are exposed.</p><p>Sixteen years of data clearly reveal the inland and upward expansion of the ablation area. The weather station closest to the equilibrium line (S9) shows a clear and distinct reduction in albedo, and a relatively strong increase in surface melt, which has started to exceed accumulation during the period of observation. Photographs of the area around S9 show that the surface has undergone major changes between 2003 and 2019, now featuring many surface hydrological features that were completely absent in 2003.</p><p>These changes have important implications for the hydrology of the surface, the near-surface, and the underlying firn. A firn model calculation reveals that the entire firn column has been heating by several degrees Celsius in the percolation zone, due to refreezing of meltwater. Sudden, stepwise warming is seen in extreme melt seasons like 2019.</p>

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