scholarly journals Examining the stratospheric response to the solar cycle in a coupled WACCM simulation with an internally generated QBO

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 4843-4856 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. C. Kren ◽  
D. R. Marsh ◽  
A. K. Smith ◽  
P. Pilewskie
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Uv Irradiance ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Uv Response ◽  
Model Components

Abstract. The response of the stratosphere to the combined interaction of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle in ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and the influence of the solar cycle on the QBO, are investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Transient simulations were performed beginning in 1850 that included fully interactive ocean and chemistry model components, observed greenhouse gas concentrations, volcanic eruptions, and an internally generated QBO. Over the full length of the simulations we do not find a solar cycle modulation of either the QBO period or amplitude. We also do not find a persistent wintertime UV response in polar stratospheric geopotential heights when stratifying by the QBO phase. Over individual ~40 year periods of the simulation, a statistically significant correlation is sometimes found between the northern polar geopotential heights in February and UV irradiance during the QBO's westerly phase. However, the sign of the correlation varies over the simulation, and is never significant during the QBO's easterly phase. Complementing this is the analysis of four simulations using a QBO prescribed to match observations over the period 1953–2005. Again, no consistent correlation is evident. In contrast, over the same period, meteorological reanalysis shows a strong positive correlation during the QBO westerly phase, although it weakens as the period is extended. The results raise the possibility that the observed polar solar–QBO correlation may have occurred because of the relatively short data record and the presence of additional external forcings rather than a direct solar–QBO interaction.

scholarly journals Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and temperature in observations and model simulations

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 9207-9248 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Steinbrecht ◽  
B. Haßler ◽  
C. Brühl ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature

Abstract. We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2002, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2002, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km). For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa (≈30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more levels in this region. Both models reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability, MAECHAM4-CHEM somewhat better than E39/C. Total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature show similar patterns. Main contributions to the interannual variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come from a linear trend (up to −30 Dobson Units (DU) per decade, or −1.5 K/decade), the QBO (up to 25 DU, or 2.5 K peak to peak), the intensity of the polar vortices (up to 50 DU, or 5 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up to 30 DU, or 3 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year solar cycle (generally less than 25 DU, or 2.5 K), and to ENSO (up to 15 DU, or 1.5 K). Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to −40 DU, or +3 K). Most stratospheric variations are connected to the troposphere, both in observations and simulations. At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric. At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian (or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at high- latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar cycle and ENSO.

scholarly journals Examining the stratospheric response to the solar cycle in a coupled WACCM simulation with an internally generated QBO

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 25157-25184
Author(s):  
A. C. Kren ◽  
D. R. Marsh ◽  
A. K. Smith ◽  
P. Pilewskie
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Transient Simulation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Realistic Representation ◽  
Chance Occurrence ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Ensemble Of Simulations

Abstract. The response of the stratosphere to the combined interaction of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle, and the influence of the solar cycle on the QBO, are investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. A transient simulation was run from 1850–2005 with fully interactive ocean, chemistry, greenhouse gases, volcanic eruptions, and an internally generated QBO. The model QBO produces a realistic representation of equatorial stratospheric winds. The simulation results are analyzed to examine the modulation of the Holton–Tan effect by the solar cycle. Over ~ 40 yr periods a correlation is sometimes found between the northern polar geopotential heights and the 255 nm solar irradiance when the data are separated as a function of QBO phase. At other times, the correlation switches sign; it is not robust over the entire simulation. Complementing this are analyses of several additional model runs: an additional interactive QBO simulation and an ensemble of simulations using a prescribed QBO. The results raise the possibility of a chance occurrence in the observed polar solar-QBO response. In addition, we do not find a significant modulation of either the QBO period or amplitude by the solar cycle.

Revisiting the Krakatau 1883 Volcanic Aerosol Dispersal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Impact

<p>The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).</p><p>In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an  umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of Arctic Spring Ozone Anomaly in the Phases of QBO and 11-year Solar Cycle for 1979–2011

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yousuke Yamashita ◽  
Hideharu Akiyoshi ◽  
Masaaki Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Negative Anomaly ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Arctic ozone amount in winter to spring shows large year-to-year variation. This study investigates Arctic spring ozone in relation to the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)/the 11-year solar cycle, using satellite observations, reanalysis data, and outputs of a chemistry climate model (CCM) during the period of 1979–2011. For this duration, we found that the composite mean of the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude total ozone in the QBO-westerly (QBO-W)/solar minimum (Smin) phase is slightly smaller than those averaged for the QBO-W/Smax and QBO-E/Smax years in March. An analysis of a passive ozone tracer in the CCM simulation indicates that this negative anomaly is primarily caused by transport. The negative anomaly is consistent with a weakening of the residual mean downward motion in the polar lower stratosphere. The contribution of chemical processes estimated using the column amount difference between ozone and the passive ozone tracer is between 10–20% of the total anomaly in March. The lower ozone levels in the Arctic spring during the QBO-W/Smin years are associated with a stronger Arctic polar vortex from late winter to early spring, which is linked to the reduced occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming in the winter during the QBO-W/Smin years.

scholarly journals Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Steinbrecht ◽  
B. Haßler ◽  
C. Brühl ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature

Abstract. We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2000, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2000, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km). For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa (≈30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more levels in this region. Despite some problems, both models generally reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability in total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature. In most aspects MAECHAM4-CHEM performs slightly better than E39/C. MAECHAM4-CHEM overestimates the long-term decline of total ozone, whereas underestimates the decline over Antarctica and at northern mid-latitudes. The true long-term decline in winter and spring above the Arctic may be underestimated by a lack of TOMS/SBUV observations in winter, particularly in the cold 1990s. Main contributions to the observed interannual variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come from a linear trend (up to -10 DU/decade at high northern latitudes, up to -40 DU/decade at high southern latitudes, and around -0.7 K/decade over much of the globe), from the intensity of the polar vortices (more than 40 DU, or 8 K peak to peak), the QBO (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year solar cycle (generally less than 15 DU, or 1 K), or to ENSO (up to 10 DU, or 1 K). These observed variations are replicated well in the simulations. Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to -30 DU, or +3 K). At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric. At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian (or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at high-latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar cycle and ENSO.

scholarly journals Stratospheric aerosol evolution after Pinatubo simulated with a coupled size-resolved aerosol–chemistry–climate model, SOCOL-AERv1.0

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2633-2647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timofei Sukhodolov ◽  
Jian-Xiong Sheng ◽  
Aryeh Feinberg ◽  
Bei-Ping Luo ◽  
Thomas Peter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Atmospheric Effects ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Aerosol Chemistry ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Parameters

Abstract. We evaluate how the coupled aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv1.0 represents the influence of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo on stratospheric aerosol properties and atmospheric state. The aerosol module is coupled to the radiative and chemical modules and includes comprehensive sulfur chemistry and microphysics, in which the particle size distribution is represented by 40 size bins with radii spanning from 0.39 nm to 3.2 µm. SOCOL-AER simulations are compared with satellite and in situ measurements of aerosol parameters, temperature reanalyses, and ozone observations. In addition to the reference model configuration, we performed series of sensitivity experiments looking at different processes affecting the aerosol layer. An accurate sedimentation scheme is found to be essential to prevent particles from diffusing too rapidly to high and low altitudes. The aerosol radiative feedback and the use of a nudged quasi-biennial oscillation help to keep aerosol in the tropics and significantly affect the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol burden, which improves the agreement with observed aerosol mass distributions. The inclusion of van der Waals forces in the particle coagulation scheme suggests improvements in particle effective radius, although other parameters (such as aerosol longevity) deteriorate. Modification of the Pinatubo sulfur emission rate also improves some aerosol parameters, while it worsens others compared to observations. Observations themselves are highly uncertain and render it difficult to conclusively judge the necessity of further model reconfiguration. The model revealed problems in reproducing aerosol sizes above 25 km and also in capturing certain features of the ozone response. Besides this, our results show that SOCOL-AER is capable of predicting the most important global-scale atmospheric effects following volcanic eruptions, which is also a prerequisite for an improved understanding of solar geoengineering effects from sulfur injections to the stratosphere.

scholarly journals Externally Forced and Internal Variability in Ensemble Climate Simulations of the Maunder Minimum

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (20) ◽  
pp. 4253-4270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Yoshimori ◽  
Thomas F. Stocker ◽  
Christoph C. Raible ◽  
Manuel Renold
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Transient Simulations

Abstract The response of the climate system to natural, external forcing during the Maunder Minimum (ca. a.d. 1645–1715) is investigated using a comprehensive climate model. An ensemble of six transient simulations is produced in order to examine the relative importance of externally forced and internally generated variability. The simulated annual Northern Hemisphere and zonal-mean near-surface air temperature agree well with proxy-based reconstructions on decadal time scales. A mean cooling signal during the Maunder Minimum is masked by the internal unforced variability in some regions such as Alaska, Greenland, and northern Europe. In general, temperature exhibits a better signal-to-noise ratio than precipitation. Mean salinity changes are found in basin averages. The model also shows clear response patterns to volcanic eruptions. In particular, volcanic forcing is projected onto the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index following the eruptions. It is demonstrated that the significant spread of ensemble members is possible even on multidecadal time scales, which has an important implication in coordinating comparisons between model simulations and regional reconstructions.

A global ensemble-based comparison of the last two glacial inceptions with LCice 2.0

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marilena Geng ◽  
Lev Tarasov ◽  
Taimaz Bahadory
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
Systems Model ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Transient Simulations ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Fully Coupled

<p>What determines the character of glacial inceptions? Does the spatio-temporal pattern of ice nucleation and expansion vary much between Late Pleistocene glacial inceptions? According to various benthic del18O stacks, the MIS 7 interglacial was the most anomalous in character of the last 4 interglacials. Key differences include a weaker interglacial state and an initial fast inception interrupted by a return to a similar and extended interglacial state. These anomalies of MIS 7 along with temporal proximity arguably make the last two glacial inceptions the best test case for addressing our opening questions. As part of a larger project to generate and analyze a data-constrained ensemble of fully coupled ice/climate transient simulations for the last two complete glacial cycles, herein we present initial results comparing the last two glacial inceptions (MIS 7 and 5d). We are using a new version of the fully coupled ice/climate model LCice. LCice now simulates all 4 paleo ice sheet complexes with hybrid shallow-shelf and shallow-ice physics. It has already been shown to capture northern hemispheric ice sheet growth and subsequent retreat consistent with inferences from global mean sea level proxies (Bahadory et al, 2019). Orbital and greenhouse gas changes are the only external forcings applied to the model. A 300 member ensemble probes parametric uncertainties in both the 3D Glacial Systems Model and LoveClim (Atmosphere/Ocean/Vegetation) components of LCice. Our presentation will compare the evolution and relative phasing of all 4 paleo ice sheets, and associated changes in the rest of the modelled climate system.</p>

scholarly journals On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 5251-5269 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Chiodo ◽  
D. R. Marsh ◽  
R. Garcia-Herrera ◽  
N. Calvo ◽  
J. A. García
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Solar Signal ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We investigate the relative role of volcanic eruptions, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the quasi-decadal signal in the tropical stratosphere with regard to temperature and ozone commonly attributed to the 11 yr solar cycle. For this purpose, we perform transient simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model forced from 1960 to 2004 with an 11 yr solar cycle in irradiance and different combinations of other forcings. An improved multiple linear regression technique is used to diagnose the 11 yr solar signal in the simulations. One set of simulations includes all observed forcings, and is thereby aimed at closely reproducing observations. Three idealized sets exclude ENSO variability, volcanic aerosol forcing, and QBO in tropical stratospheric winds, respectively. Differences in the derived solar response in the tropical stratosphere in the four sets quantify the impact of ENSO, volcanic events and the QBO in attributing quasi-decadal changes to the solar cycle in the model simulations. The novel regression approach shows that most of the apparent solar-induced lower-stratospheric temperature and ozone increase diagnosed in the simulations with all observed forcings is due to two major volcanic eruptions (i.e., El Chichón in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991). This is caused by the alignment of these eruptions with periods of high solar activity. While it is feasible to detect a robust solar signal in the middle and upper tropical stratosphere, this is not the case in the tropical lower stratosphere, at least in a 45 yr simulation. The present results suggest that in the tropical lower stratosphere, the portion of decadal variability that can be unambiguously linked to the solar cycle may be smaller than previously thought.

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