scholarly journals On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 5251-5269 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Chiodo ◽  
D. R. Marsh ◽  
R. Garcia-Herrera ◽  
N. Calvo ◽  
J. A. García
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Solar Signal ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We investigate the relative role of volcanic eruptions, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the quasi-decadal signal in the tropical stratosphere with regard to temperature and ozone commonly attributed to the 11 yr solar cycle. For this purpose, we perform transient simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model forced from 1960 to 2004 with an 11 yr solar cycle in irradiance and different combinations of other forcings. An improved multiple linear regression technique is used to diagnose the 11 yr solar signal in the simulations. One set of simulations includes all observed forcings, and is thereby aimed at closely reproducing observations. Three idealized sets exclude ENSO variability, volcanic aerosol forcing, and QBO in tropical stratospheric winds, respectively. Differences in the derived solar response in the tropical stratosphere in the four sets quantify the impact of ENSO, volcanic events and the QBO in attributing quasi-decadal changes to the solar cycle in the model simulations. The novel regression approach shows that most of the apparent solar-induced lower-stratospheric temperature and ozone increase diagnosed in the simulations with all observed forcings is due to two major volcanic eruptions (i.e., El Chichón in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991). This is caused by the alignment of these eruptions with periods of high solar activity. While it is feasible to detect a robust solar signal in the middle and upper tropical stratosphere, this is not the case in the tropical lower stratosphere, at least in a 45 yr simulation. The present results suggest that in the tropical lower stratosphere, the portion of decadal variability that can be unambiguously linked to the solar cycle may be smaller than previously thought.

scholarly journals On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 30097-30142 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Chiodo ◽  
D. R. Marsh ◽  
R. Garcia-Herrera ◽  
N. Calvo ◽  
J. A. García
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Solar Signal ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We investigate the relative role of volcanic eruptions, El-Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennal-Oscillation (QBO) in the quasi-decadal signal in the tropical stratosphere in temperature and ozone commonly attributed to the 11 yr solar cycle. For this purpose, we perform transient simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model forced from 1960 to 2004 with an 11 yr solar cycle in irradiance and different combinations of other forcings. An improved multiple regression technique is used to diagnose the 11 yr solar signal in the simulations. One set of simulations includes all observed forcings, and is thereby aimed at closely reproducing observations. Three idealized sets exclude ENSO variability, volcanic aerosol forcing, and QBO in tropical stratospheric winds, respectively. Differences in the derived solar response in the tropical stratosphere in the four sets quantify the impact of ENSO, volcanic events and the QBO in attributing quasi-decadal changes to the solar cycle in the model simulations. It is shown that most of the apparent solar-induced lower stratospheric temperature and ozone increase diagnosed in the simulations with all observed forcings is due to two major volcanic eruptions (i.e., El Chichón in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991), that are concurrent with periods of high solar activity. While in the middle and upper tropical stratosphere, it is feasible to detect a robust solar signal, this is not the case in the tropical lower stratosphere, at least in a 45 yr record. The present results suggest that in the tropical lower stratosphere, the portion of decadal variability that can be unambigously linked to the solar cycle may be smaller than previously thought.

scholarly journals Impact of Solar Activity on Global Atmospheric Circulation Based on SD-WACCM-X Simulations from 2002 to 2019

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1526
Author(s):  
Chen-Ke-Min Teng ◽  
Sheng-Yang Gu ◽  
Yusong Qin ◽  
Xiankang Dou
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Upper Atmosphere ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Global Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
The Impact

In this study, a global atmospheric model, Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X), and the residual circulation principle were used to study the global atmospheric circulation from the lower to upper atmosphere (~500 km) from 2002 to 2019. Our analysis shows that the atmospheric circulation is clearly influenced by solar activity, especially in the upper atmosphere, which is mainly characterized by an enhanced atmospheric circulation in years with high solar activity. The atmospheric circulation in the upper atmosphere also exhibits an ~11 year period, and its variation is highly correlated with the temporal variation in the F10.7 solar index during the same time series, with a maximum correlation coefficient of up to more than 0.9. In the middle and lower atmosphere, the impact of solar activity on the atmospheric circulation is not as obvious as in the upper atmosphere due to some atmospheric activities such as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), volcanic forcing, and so on. By comparing the atmospheric circulation in different latitudinal regions between years with high and low solar activity, we found the atmospheric circulation in mid- and high-latitude regions is more affected by solar activity than in low-latitude and equatorial regions. In addition, clear seasonal variation in atmospheric circulation was detected in the global atmosphere, excluding the regions near 10−4 hPa and the lower atmosphere, which is mainly characterized by a flow from the summer hemisphere to the winter hemisphere. In the middle and low atmosphere, the atmospheric circulation shows a quasi-biennial oscillatory variation in the low-latitude and equatorial regions. This work provides a referable study of global atmospheric circulation and demonstrates the impacts of solar activity on global atmospheric circulation.

scholarly journals Variability and trends in total and vertically resolved stratospheric ozone

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 6317-6368 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Brunner ◽  
J. Staehelin ◽  
J. A. Maeder ◽  
I. Wohltmann ◽  
G. E. Bodeker
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Total Column Ozone

Abstract. Trends in ozone columns and vertical distributions were calculated for the period 1979–2004 based on the three-dimensional ozone data set CATO (Candidoz Assimilated Three-dimensional Ozone) using a multiple linear regression model. CATO has been reconstructed from TOMS, GOME and SBUV total column ozone observations in an equivalent latitude and potential temperature framework and offers a pole to pole coverage of the stratosphere on 15 potential temperature levels. The regression model includes explanatory variables describing the influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic eruptions, the solar cycle, the Brewer-Dobson circulation, Arctic ozone depletion, and the increase in stratospheric chlorine. The effects of displacements of the polar vortex and jet streams due to planetary waves, which may significantly affect trends at a given geographical latitude, are eliminated in the equivalent latitude framework. Ozone variability is largely explained by the QBO and stratospheric aerosol loading and the spatial structure of their influence is in good agreement with previous studies. The solar cycle signal peaks at about 30 to 35 km altitude which is lower than reported previously, and no negative signal is found in the tropical lower stratosphere. The Brewer-Dobson circulation shows a dominant contribution to interannual variability at both high and low latitudes and accounts for some of the ozone increase seen in the northern hemisphere since the mid-1990s. Arctic ozone depletion significantly affects the high northern latitudes between January and March and extends its influence to the mid-latitudes during later months. The vertical distribution of the ozone trend shows distinct negative trends at about 18 km in the lower stratosphere with largest declines over the poles, and above 35 km in the upper stratosphere. A narrow band of large negative trends extends into the tropical lower stratosphere. Assuming that the observed negative trend before 1995 continued to 2004 cannot explain the ozone changes since 1996. A model accounting for recent changes in EESC, aerosols and Eliassen-Palm flux, on the other hand, closely tracks ozone changes since 1995.

Impact of November 2010 volcanic activity on the UTLS temperatures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Lasota ◽  
Riccardo Biondi ◽  
Florian Ladstädter ◽  
Andrea K. Steiner
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Maximum Warming ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Temperature Time

<p>Recent studies have shown an increase of stratospheric aerosol optical depth in the last 20 years despite the absence of large volcanic eruptions in the same period, contributing to supporting the hypothesis that several minor eruptions could impact the atmospheric variability as a large one. November 2010 was a relatively active volcanic period in the tropical belt, three eruptions with Volcanic Explosivity Index higher than 3 occurred in a time span of about 3 weeks: Merapi, Tengger Caldera and Tungurahua. Merapi was the largest eruption of the three, directly overshooting the stratosphere and injecting a large amount of sulfur dioxide. In this study, we analyse the impact of this series of eruptions on the temperature derived from radio occultation observations in upper troposphere lower stratosphere at the local, regional and global scale. The impact of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and linear trend on temperature is estimated and removed from temperature time series using multiple linear regression. Signatures of volcanic eruptions in temperature are analysed using post fit residuals. The results show significant warming in the lower stratosphere between 10°S and 0° for a period of 7 months after the eruptions with a maximum anomaly amplitude of about 1.4 K at 18 km altitude. Whilst the maximum warming in Merapi’s vicinity occurred 4 months after the eruption and reached the magnitude of almost 4 K.</p>

scholarly journals How can we understand the global distribution of the solar cycle signal on the Earth's surface?

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (20) ◽  
pp. 12925-12944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunihiko Kodera ◽  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Seiji Yukimoto ◽  
Katja Matthes
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Solar Signal ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Solar Influence ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. To understand solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface and identify the physical mechanisms responsible, surface temperature variations from observations as well as climate model data are analysed to characterize their spatial structure. The solar signal in the annual mean surface temperature is characterized by (i) mid-latitude warming and (ii) no overall tropical warming. The mid-latitude warming during solar maxima in both hemispheres is associated with a downward penetration of zonal mean zonal wind anomalies from the upper stratosphere during late winter. During the Northern Hemisphere winter this is manifested by a modulation of the polar-night jet, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere, the upper stratospheric subtropical jet plays the major role. Warming signals are particularly apparent over the Eurasian continent and ocean frontal zones, including a previously reported lagged response over the North Atlantic. In the tropics, local warming occurs over the Indian and central Pacific oceans during high solar activity. However, this warming is counterbalanced by cooling over the cold tongue sectors in the southeastern Pacific and the South Atlantic, and results in a very weak zonally averaged tropical mean signal. The cooling in the ocean basins is associated with stronger cross-equatorial winds resulting from a northward shift of the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation during solar maxima. To understand the complex processes involved in the solar signal transfer, results of an idealized middle atmosphere–ocean coupled model experiment on the impact of stratospheric zonal wind changes are compared with solar signals in observations. Model integration of 100 years of strong or weak stratospheric westerly jet condition in winter may exaggerate long-term ocean feedback. However, the role of ocean in the solar influence on the Earth's surface can be better seen. Although the momentum forcing differs from that of solar radiative forcing, the model results suggest that stratospheric changes can influence the troposphere, not only in the extratropics but also in the tropics through (i) a downward migration of wave–zonal mean flow interactions and (ii) changes in the stratospheric mean meridional circulation. These experiments support earlier evidence of an indirect solar influence from the stratosphere.

scholarly journals How can we understand the solar cycle signal on the Earth's surface?

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunihiko Kodera ◽  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Seiji Yukimoto ◽  
Katja Matthes
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Solar Signal ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. To understand solar cycle signals on the Earth's surface and identify the physical mechanisms responsible, surface temperature variations from observations as well as climate model data are analyzed to characterize their spatial structure. The solar signal in the annual mean surface temperature is characterized by (i) mid-latitude warming and (ii) no warming in the tropics. The mid-latitude warming during solar maxima in both hemispheres is associated with a downward penetration of zonal mean zonal wind anomalies from the upper stratosphere during late winter. During Northern Hemisphere winter this is manifested in a modulation of the polar-night jet whereas in the Southern Hemisphere the subtropical jet plays the major role. Warming signals are particularly apparent over the Eurasian continent and ocean frontal zones, including a previously reported lagged response over the North Atlantic. In the tropics, local warming occurs over the Indian and central Pacific oceans during high solar activity. However, this warming is counter balanced by cooling over the cold tongue sectors in the southeastern Pacific and the South Atlantic, and results in a very weak zonally averaged tropical mean signal. The cooling in the ocean basins is associated with stronger cross-equatorial winds resulting from a northward shift of the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation during solar maxima. To understand the complex processes involved in the solar signal transfer, results of an idealized middle atmosphere–ocean coupled model experiment on the impact of stratospheric zonal wind changes are compared with solar signals in observations. The model results suggest that both tropical and extra-tropical solar surface signals can result from circulation changes in the upper stratosphere through (i) a downward migration of wave–zonal mean flow interactions and (ii) changes in the stratospheric mean meridional circulation. These experiments support earlier evidence of an indirect solar influence from the stratosphere.

scholarly journals Interannual Variability and Trends in Sea Surface Temperature, Lower and Middle Atmosphere Temperature at Different Latitudes for 1980–2019

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 454
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Jakovlev ◽  
Sergei P. Smyshlyaev ◽  
Vener Y. Galin
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Impact

The influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in the tropical, middle, and polar latitudes is studied for 1980–2019 based on the MERRA2, ERA5, and Met Office reanalysis data, and numerical modeling with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere. The variability of SST is analyzed according to Met Office and ERA5 data, while the variability of atmospheric temperature is investigated according to MERRA2 and ERA5 data. Analysis of sea surface temperature trends based on reanalysis data revealed that a significant positive SST trend of about 0.1 degrees per decade is observed over the globe. In the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the trend (about 0.2 degrees per decade) is 2 times higher than the global average, and 5 times higher than in the Southern Hemisphere (about 0.04 degrees per decade). At polar latitudes, opposite SST trends are observed in the Arctic (positive) and Antarctic (negative). The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature of the lower and middle atmosphere in the middle and polar latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is discussed. To assess the relative influence of SST, CO2, and other greenhouse gases’ variability on the temperature of the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere, numerical calculations with a CCM were performed for several scenarios of accounting for the SST and carbon dioxide variability. The results of numerical experiments with a CCM demonstrated that the influence of SST prevails in the troposphere, while for the stratosphere, an increase in the CO2 content plays the most important role.

Middle Atmosphere Temperature Changes Derived from SABER Observations during 2002-2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
X. R. Zhao ◽  
Z. Sheng ◽  
H. Q. Shi ◽  
L. B. Weng ◽  
Y. He
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Atmosphere Temperature ◽  
Temperature Responses

AbstractUsing temperature data measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument from February 2002 to March 2020, the temperature linear trend and temperature responses to the solar cycle (SC), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated from 20 km to 110 km for the latitude range of 50°S-50°N. A four-component harmonic fit was used to remove the seasonal variation from the observed monthly temperature series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was applied to analyze the linear trend, SC, QBO, and ENSO terms. In this study, the near-global mean temperature shows consistent cooling trends throughout the entire middle atmosphere, ranging from -0.28 to -0.97 K/decade. Additionally, it shows positive responses to the solar cycle, varying from -0.05 to 4.53 K/100sfu. A solar temperature response boundary between 50°S and 50°N is given, above which the atmospheric temperature is strongly affected by solar activity. The boundary penetrates deep below the stratopause to ~ 42 km over the tropical region and rises to higher altitudes with latitude. Temperature responses to the QBO and ENSO can be observed up to the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. In the equatorial region, 40%-70% of the total variance is explained by QBO signals in the stratosphere and 30%-50% is explained by the solar signal in the upper middle atmosphere. Our results, obtained from 18-year SABER observations, are expected to be an updated reliable estimation of the middle atmosphere temperature variability for the stratospheric ozone recovery period.

Revisiting the Krakatau 1883 Volcanic Aerosol Dispersal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Impact

<p>The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).</p><p>In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an  umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.</p>

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone interannual variability (1995–2011) as observed by Lidar and Satellite at Mauna Loa Observatory, HI and Table Mountain Facility, CA

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 30825-30867
Author(s):  
G. Kirgis ◽  
T. Leblanc ◽  
I. S. McDermid ◽  
T. D. Walsh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Mauna Loa ◽  
Table Mountain ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) lidars, at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (MLO, 19.5° N, 155.6° W) and the JPL Table Mountain Facility (TMF, California, 34.5° N, 117.7° W), have been measuring vertical profiles of stratospheric ozone routinely since the early 1990's and late-1980s respectively. Interannual variability of ozone above these two sites was investigated using a multi-linear regression analysis on the deseasonalized monthly mean lidar and satellite time-series at 1 km intervals between 20 and 45 km from January 1995 to April 2011, a period of low volcanic aerosol loading. Explanatory variables representing the 11-yr solar cycle, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the Eliassen–Palm flux, and horizontal and vertical transport were used. A new proxy, the mid-latitude ozone depleting gas index, which shows a decrease with time as an outcome of the Montreal Protocol, was introduced and compared to the more commonly used linear trend method. The analysis also compares the lidar time-series and a merged time-series obtained from the space-borne stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment II, halogen occultation experiment, and Aura-microwave limb sounder instruments. The results from both lidar and satellite measurements are consistent with recent model simulations which propose changes in tropical upwelling. Additionally, at TMF the ozone depleting gas index explains as much variance as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the upper stratosphere. Over the past 17 yr a diminishing downward trend in ozone was observed before 2000 and a net increase, and sign of ozone recovery, is observed after 2005. Our results which include dynamical proxies suggest possible coupling between horizontal transport and the 11-yr solar cycle response, although a dataset spanning a period longer than one solar cycle is needed to confirm this result.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document