scholarly journals Impact of uncertainties in inorganic chemical rate constants on tropospheric composition and ozone radiative forcing

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 14333-14352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Newsome ◽  
Mat Evans
Keyword(s):  
Rate Constant ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Rate Constants ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Chemical Rate

Abstract. Chemical rate constants determine the composition of the atmosphere and how this composition has changed over time. They are central to our understanding of climate change and air quality degradation. Atmospheric chemistry models, whether online or offline, box, regional or global, use these rate constants. Expert panels evaluate laboratory measurements, making recommendations for the rate constants that should be used. This results in very similar or identical rate constants being used by all models. The inherent uncertainties in these recommendations are, in general, therefore ignored. We explore the impact of these uncertainties on the composition of the troposphere using the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. Based on the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) evaluations we assess the influence of 50 mainly inorganic rate constants and 10 photolysis rates on tropospheric composition through the use of the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. We assess the impact on four standard metrics: annual mean tropospheric ozone burden, surface ozone and tropospheric OH concentrations, and tropospheric methane lifetime. Uncertainty in the rate constants for NO2 + OH →M  HNO3 and O3 + NO  →  NO2 + O2 are the two largest sources of uncertainty in these metrics. The absolute magnitude of the change in the metrics is similar if rate constants are increased or decreased by their σ values. We investigate two methods of assessing these uncertainties, addition in quadrature and a Monte Carlo approach, and conclude they give similar outcomes. Combining the uncertainties across the 60 reactions gives overall uncertainties on the annual mean tropospheric ozone burden, surface ozone and tropospheric OH concentrations, and tropospheric methane lifetime of 10, 11, 16 and 16 %, respectively. These are larger than the spread between models in recent model intercomparisons. Remote regions such as the tropics, poles and upper troposphere are most uncertain. This chemical uncertainty is sufficiently large to suggest that rate constant uncertainty should be considered alongside other processes when model results disagree with measurement. Calculations for the pre-industrial simulation allow a tropospheric ozone radiative forcing to be calculated of 0.412 ± 0.062 W m−2. This uncertainty (13 %) is comparable to the inter-model spread in ozone radiative forcing found in previous model–model intercomparison studies where the rate constants used in the models are all identical or very similar. Thus, the uncertainty of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing should expanded to include this additional source of uncertainty. These rate constant uncertainties are significant and suggest that refinement of supposedly well-known chemical rate constants should be considered alongside other improvements to enhance our understanding of atmospheric processes.

scholarly journals Impact of uncertainties in inorganic chemical rate constants on tropospheric composition and ozone radiative forcing

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Newsome ◽  
Mat Evans
Keyword(s):  
Rate Constant ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Rate Constants ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Photolysis Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Chemical Rate

Abstract. Chemical rate constants determine the composition of the atmosphere and how this composition has changed over time. They are central to our understanding of climate change and air quality degradation. Atmospheric chemistry models, whether online or offline, box, regional or global use these rate constants. Expert panels synthesise laboratory measurements, making recommendations for the rate constants that should be used. This results in very similar or identical rate constants being used by all models. The inherent uncertainties in these recommendations are, in general, therefore ignored. We explore the impact of these uncertainties on the composition of the troposphere using the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. Based on the JPL and IUPAC evaluations we assess 50 mainly inorganic rate constants and 10 photolysis rates, through simulations where we increase the rate of the reactions to the 1σ upper value recommended by the expert panels. We assess the impact on 4 standard metrics: annual mean tropospheric ozone burden, surface ozone and tropospheric OH concentrations, and tropospheric methane lifetime. Uncertainty in the rate constants for NO2 + OH    M →  HNO3, OH + CH4 → CH3O2 + H2O and O3 + NO → NO2 + O2 are the three largest source of uncertainty in these metrics. We investigate two methods of assessing these uncertainties, addition in quadrature and a Monte Carlo approach, and conclude they give similar outcomes. Combining the uncertainties across the 60 reactions, gives overall uncertainties on the annual mean tropospheric ozone burden, surface ozone and tropospheric OH concentrations, and tropospheric methane lifetime of 11, 12, 17 and 17 % respectively. These are larger than the spread between models in recent model inter-comparisons. Remote regions such as the tropics, poles, and upper troposphere are most uncertain. This chemical uncertainty is sufficiently large to suggest that rate constant uncertainty should be considered when model results disagree with measurement. Calculations for the pre-industrial allow a tropospheric ozone radiative forcing to be calculated of 0.412 ± 0.062 Wm−2. This uncertainty (15 %) is comparable to the inter-model spread in ozone radiative forcing found in previous model-model inter-comparison studies where the rate constants used in the models are all identical or very similar. Thus the uncertainty of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing should expanded to include this additional source of uncertainty. These rate constant uncertainties are significant and suggest that refinement of supposedly well known chemical rate constants should be considered alongside other improvements to enhance our understanding of atmospheric processes.

scholarly journals Global stratospheric fluorine inventory for 2004–2009 from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) measurements and SLIMCAT model simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 267-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. Brown ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
N. A. D. Richards ◽  
C. Boone ◽  
P. F. Bernath
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Similar Rate ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Negative Slope ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Inorganic Species ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Fluorine-containing species can be extremely effective atmospheric greenhouse gases. We present fluorine budgets using organic and inorganic species retrieved by the ACE-FTS satellite instrument supplemented with output from the SLIMCAT 3-D chemical transport model. The budgets are calculated between 2004 and 2009 for a number of latitude bands: 70–30° N, 30–00° N, 00° N–30° S, and 30–70° S. At lower altitudes total fluorine profiles are dominated by the contribution from CFC-12, up to an altitude of 20 km in the extra-tropics and 29 km in the tropics; above these altitudes the profiles are dominated by hydrogen fluoride (HF). Our data show that total fluorine profiles at all locations have a negative slope with altitude, providing evidence that overall fluorine emissions (measured by their F content) have been increasing with time. Total stratospheric fluorine is increasing at a similar rate in the tropics: 32.5 ± 4.9 ppt yr−1 (1.31 ± 0.20% per year) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and 29.8 ± 5.3 ppt yr−1 (1.21 ± 0.22% per year) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Extra-tropical total stratospheric fluorine is also increasing at a similar rate in both the NH and SH: 28.3 ± 2.7 ppt per year (1.12 ± 0.11% per year) in the NH and 24.3 ± 3.1 ppt per year (0.96 ± 0.12% per year) in the SH. The calculation of radiative efficiency-weighted total fluorine allows the changes in radiative forcing between 2004 and 2009 to be calculated. These results show an increase in radiative forcing of between 0.23 ± 0.11% per year and 0.45 ± 0.11% per year, due to the increase in fluorine-containing species during this time. The decreasing trends in the mixing ratios of halons and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), due to their prohibition under the Montreal Protocol, have suppressed an increase in total fluorine caused by increasing mixing ratios of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). This has reduced the impact of fluorine-containing species on global warming.

scholarly journals Combined assimilation of IASI and MLS observations to constrain tropospheric and stratospheric ozone in a global chemical transport model

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 21455-21505
Author(s):  
E. Emili ◽  
B. Barret ◽  
S. Massart ◽  
E. Le Flochmoen ◽  
A. Piacentini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Ozone Monitoring Instrument ◽  
Global Chemical Transport Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Accurate and temporally resolved fields of free-troposphere ozone are of major importance to quantify the intercontinental transport of pollution and the ozone radiative forcing. In this study we examine the impact of assimilating ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) in a global chemical transport model (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Échelle, MOCAGE). The assimilation of the two instruments is performed by means of a variational algorithm (4-D-VAR) and allows to constrain stratospheric and tropospheric ozone simultaneously. The analysis is first computed for the months of August and November 2008 and validated against ozone-sondes measurements to verify the presence of observations and model biases. It is found that the IASI Tropospheric Ozone Column (TOC, 1000–225 hPa) should be bias-corrected prior to assimilation and MLS lowermost level (215 hPa) excluded from the analysis. Furthermore, a longer analysis of 6 months (July–August 2008) showed that the combined assimilation of MLS and IASI is able to globally reduce the uncertainty (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE) of the modeled ozone columns from 30% to 15% in the Upper-Troposphere/Lower-Stratosphere (UTLS, 70–225 hPa) and from 25% to 20% in the free troposphere. The positive effect of assimilating IASI tropospheric observations is very significant at low latitudes (30° S–30° N), whereas it is not demonstrated at higher latitudes. Results are confirmed by a comparison with additional ozone datasets like the Measurements of OZone and wAter vapour by aIrbus in-service airCraft (MOZAIC) data, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) total ozone columns and several high-altitude surface measurements. Finally, the analysis is found to be little sensitive to the assimilation parameters and the model chemical scheme, due to the high frequency of satellite observations compared to the average life-time of free-troposphere/low-stratosphere ozone.

scholarly journals Impact of the new HNO<sub>3</sub>-forming channel of the HO<sub>2</sub>+NO reaction on tropospheric HNO<sub>3</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, HO<sub>x</sub> and ozone

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (14) ◽  
pp. 4061-4068 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cariolle ◽  
M. J. Evans ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
N. Butkovskaya ◽  
A. Kukui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We have studied the impact of the recently observed reaction NO+HO2→HNO3 on atmospheric chemistry. A pressure and temperature-dependent parameterisation of this minor channel of the NO+HO2→NO2+OH reaction has been included in both a 2-D stratosphere-troposphere model and a 3-D tropospheric chemical transport model (CTM). Significant effects on the nitrogen species and hydroxyl radical concentrations are found throughout the troposphere, with the largest percentage changes occurring in the tropical upper troposphere (UT). Including the reaction leads to a reduction in NOx everywhere in the troposphere, with the largest decrease of 25% in the tropical and Southern Hemisphere UT. The tropical UT also has a corresponding large increase in HNO3 of 25%. OH decreases throughout the troposphere with the largest reduction of over 20% in the tropical UT. The mean global decrease in OH is around 13%, which is very large compared to the impact that typical photochemical revisions have on this modelled quantity. This OH decrease leads to an increase in CH4 lifetime of 5%. Due to the impact of decreased NOx on the OH:HO2 partitioning, modelled HO2 actually increases in the tropical UT on including the new reaction. The impact on tropospheric ozone is a decrease in the range 5 to 12%, with the largest impact in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Comparison with observations shows that in the region of largest changes, i.e. the tropical UT, the inclusion of the new reaction tends to degrade the model agreement. Elsewhere the model comparisons are not able to critically assess the impact of including this reaction. Only small changes are calculated in the minor species distributions in the stratosphere.

scholarly journals Impact of the new HNO<sub>3</sub>-forming channel of the HO<sub>2</sub>+NO reaction on tropospheric HNO<sub>3</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, HO<sub>x</sub> and ozone

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 2695-2713 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cariolle ◽  
M. J. Evans ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
N. Butkovskaya ◽  
A. Kukui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Model Agreement

Abstract. We have studied the impact of the recently established reaction NO+HO2→HNO3 on atmospheric chemistry. A pressure and temperature-dependent parameterisation of this minor channel of the NO+HO2→NO2+OH reaction has been included in both a 2-D stratosphere-troposphere model and a 3-D tropospheric chemical transport model (CTM). Significant effects on the nitrogen species and hydroxyl radical concentrations are found throughout the troposphere, with the largest percentage changes occurring in the tropical upper troposphere (UT). Including the reaction leads to a reduction in NOx everywhere in the troposphere, with the largest decrease of 25% in the tropical and southern hemisphere UT. The tropical UT also has a corresponding large increase in HNO3 of 25%. OH decreases throughout the troposphere with the largest reduction of over 20% in the tropical UT. Mean global decreases in OH are around 13% which leads to a increase in CH4 lifetime of 5%. Due to the impact of decreased NOx on the OH:HO2 partitioning, modelled HO2 actually increases in the tropical UT on including the new reaction. The impact on tropospheric ozone is a decrease in the range 5 to 12%, with the largest impact in the tropics and southern hemisphere. Comparison with observations shows that in the region of largest changes, i.e. the tropical UT, the inclusion of the new reaction tends to degrade the model agreement. Elsewhere the model comparisons are not able to critically assess the impact of including this reaction. Only small changes are calculated in the minor species distributions in the stratosphere.

scholarly journals Air quality and radiative forcing impacts of anthropogenic volatile organic compound emissions from ten world regions

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 21125-21157 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Fry ◽  
M. D. Schwarzkopf ◽  
Z. Adelman ◽  
J. J. West
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Volatile Organic

Abstract. Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) influence air quality and global climate change through their effects on secondary air pollutants and climate forcers. Here we simulate the air quality and radiative forcing (RF) impacts of changes in ozone, methane, and sulfate from halving anthropogenic NMVOC emissions globally and from 10 regions individually, using a global chemical transport model and a standalone radiative transfer model. Halving global NMVOC emissions decreases global annual average tropospheric methane and ozone by 36.6 ppbv and 3.3 Tg, respectively, and surface ozone by 0.67 ppbv. All regional reductions slow the production of PAN, resulting in regional to intercontinental PAN decreases and regional NOx increases. These NOx increases drive tropospheric ozone increases nearby or downwind of source regions in the Southern Hemisphere (South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Australia). Some regions' NMVOC emissions contribute importantly to air pollution in other regions, such as East Asia, Middle East, and Europe, whose impact on US surface ozone is 43%, 34%, and 34% of North America's impact. Global and regional NMVOC reductions produce widespread negative net RFs (cooling) across both hemispheres from tropospheric ozone and methane decreases, and regional warming and cooling from changes in tropospheric ozone and sulfate (via several oxidation pathways). The total global net RF for NMVOCs is estimated as 0.0277 W m−2 (~1.8% of CO2 RF since the preindustrial). The 100 yr and 20 yr global warming potentials (GWP100, GWP20) are 2.36 and 5.83 for the global reduction, and 0.079 to 6.05 and −1.13 to 18.9 among the 10 regions. The NMVOC RF and GWP estimates are generally lower than previously modeled estimates, due to differences among models in ozone, methane, and sulfate sensitivities, and the climate forcings included in each estimate. Accounting for a~fuller set of RF contributions may change the relative magnitude of each region's impacts. The large variability in the RF and GWP of NMVOCs among regions suggest that regionally-specific metrics may be necessary to include NMVOCs in multi-gas climate trading schemes.

scholarly journals The effects of lightning-produced NO<sub>x</sub> and its vertical distribution on atmospheric chemistry: sensitivity simulations with MATCH-MPIC

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (7) ◽  
pp. 1815-1834 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. J. Labrador ◽  
R. von Kuhlmann ◽  
M. G. Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Model Match ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Range Transport ◽  
Best Fitting ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of different assumptions concerning the source magnitude as well as the vertical placement of lightning-produced nitrogen oxides is studied using the global chemistry transport model MATCH-MPIC. The responses of NOx, O3, OH, HNO3 and peroxyacetyl-nitrate (PAN) are investigated. A marked sensitivity to both parameters is found. NOx burdens globally can be enhanced by up to 100% depending on the vertical placement and source magnitude strength. In all cases, the largest enhancements occur in the tropical upper troposphere, where lifetimes of most trace gases are longer and where they thus become more susceptible to long-range transport by large-scale circulation patterns. Comparison with observations indicate that 0 and 20 Tg(N)/yr production rates of NOx from lightning are too low and too high, respectively. However, no single intermediate production rate or vertical distribution can be singled out as best fitting the observations, due to the large scatter in the datasets. This underscores the need for further measurement campaigns in key regions, such as the tropical continents.

scholarly journals Air quality and radiative forcing impacts of anthropogenic volatile organic compound emissions from ten world regions

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 523-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Fry ◽  
M. D. Schwarzkopf ◽  
Z. Adelman ◽  
J. J. West
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Volatile Organic

Abstract. Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) influence air quality and global climate change through their effects on secondary air pollutants and climate forcers. Here we simulate the air quality and radiative forcing (RF) impacts of changes in ozone, methane, and sulfate from halving anthropogenic NMVOC emissions globally and from 10 regions individually, using a global chemical transport model and a standalone radiative transfer model. Halving global NMVOC emissions decreases global annual average tropospheric methane and ozone by 36.6 ppbv and 3.3 Tg, respectively, and surface ozone by 0.67 ppbv. All regional reductions slow the production of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), resulting in regional to intercontinental PAN decreases and regional NOx increases. These NOx increases drive tropospheric ozone increases nearby or downwind of source regions in the Southern Hemisphere (South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Australia). Some regions' NMVOC emissions contribute importantly to air pollution in other regions, such as East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, whose impact on US surface ozone is 43%, 34%, and 34% of North America's impact. Global and regional NMVOC reductions produce widespread negative net RFs (cooling) across both hemispheres from tropospheric ozone and methane decreases, and regional warming and cooling from changes in tropospheric ozone and sulfate (via several oxidation pathways). The 100 yr and 20 yr global warming potentials (GWP100, GWP20) are 2.36 and 5.83 for the global reduction, and 0.079 to 6.05 and −1.13 to 18.9 among the 10 regions. The NMVOC RF and GWP estimates are generally lower than previously modeled estimates, due to the greater NMVOC/NOx emissions ratios simulated, which result in less sensitivity to NMVOC emissions changes and smaller global O3 burden responses, in addition to differences in the representation of NMVOCs and oxidation chemistry among models. Accounting for a fuller set of RF contributions may change the relative magnitude of each region's impacts. The large variability in the RF and GWP of NMVOCs among regions suggest that regionally specific metrics may be necessary to include NMVOCs in multi-gas climate trading schemes.

scholarly journals Combined assimilation of IASI and MLS observations to constrain tropospheric and stratospheric ozone in a global chemical transport model

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Emili ◽  
B. Barret ◽  
S. Massart ◽  
E. Le Flochmoen ◽  
A. Piacentini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Ozone Monitoring Instrument ◽  
Intercontinental Transport ◽  
Global Chemical Transport Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Accurate and temporally resolved fields of free-troposphere ozone are of major importance to quantify the intercontinental transport of pollution and the ozone radiative forcing. We consider a global chemical transport model (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Échelle, MOCAGE) in combination with a linear ozone chemistry scheme to examine the impact of assimilating observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). The assimilation of the two instruments is performed by means of a variational algorithm (4D-VAR) and allows to constrain stratospheric and tropospheric ozone simultaneously. The analysis is first computed for the months of August and November 2008 and validated against ozonesonde measurements to verify the presence of observations and model biases. Furthermore, a longer analysis of 6 months (July–December 2008) showed that the combined assimilation of MLS and IASI is able to globally reduce the uncertainty (root mean square error, RMSE) of the modeled ozone columns from 30 to 15% in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS, 70–225 hPa). The assimilation of IASI tropospheric ozone observations (1000–225 hPa columns, TOC – tropospheric O3 column) decreases the RMSE of the model from 40 to 20% in the tropics (30° S–30° N), whereas it is not effective at higher latitudes. Results are confirmed by a comparison with additional ozone data sets like the Measurements of OZone and wAter vapour by aIrbus in-service airCraft (MOZAIC) data, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) total ozone columns and several high-altitude surface measurements. Finally, the analysis is found to be insensitive to the assimilation parameters. We conclude that the combination of a simplified ozone chemistry scheme with frequent satellite observations is a valuable tool for the long-term analysis of stratospheric and free-tropospheric ozone.

scholarly journals Improving the prediction of an atmospheric chemistry transport model using gradient boosted regression trees

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter D. Ivatt ◽  
Mathew J. Evans
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Boosted Regression Trees ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Model Bias ◽  
Chemistry Transport Model ◽  
Pearson's R ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Process Based Models ◽  
Pearson’S R

Abstract. Predictions from process-based models of environmental systems are biased, due to uncertainties in their inputs and parameterisations, reducing their utility. We develop a predictor for the bias in tropospheric ozone (a key pollutant) calculated by an atmospheric chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem), based on outputs from the model and observations of ozone from both the surface (EPA, EMEP and GAW) and the ozone-sonde networks. We train a gradient-boosted decision tree algorithm (XGBoost) to predict model bias, with model and observational data for 2010–2015, and then test the approach using the years 2016–2017. We show that the bias-corrected model performs significantly better than the uncorrected model. The root mean square error is reduced from from 16.21 ppb to 7.48 ppb, the normalised mean bias is reduced from 0.28 to −0.04, and the Pearson's R is increased from 0.479 to 0.841. Comparisons with observations from the NASA ATom flights (which were not included in the training) also show improvements but to a smaller extent reducing the RMSE from 12.11 ppb to 10.50 ppb, the NMB from 0.08 to 0.06 and increasing the Pearson's R from 0.761 to 0.792. We attribute the smaller improvements to the lack of routine observational constraints of the remote troposphere. We explore the choice of predictor (bias prediction versus direct prediction) and conclude both may have utility. We show that the method is robust to variations in the volume of training data, with approximately a year of data needed to produce useful performance. Data denial experiments (removing observational sites from the algorithm training) shows that information from one location (for example Europe) can reduce the model bias over other locations (for example North America) which might provide insights into the processes controlling the model bias. We conclude that combining machine learning approaches with process based models may provide a useful tool for improving performance of air quality forecasts or to provide enhanced assessments of the impact of pollutants on human and ecosystem health, and may have utility in other environmental applications.

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