scholarly journals Impact of uncertainties in inorganic chemical rate constants on tropospheric composition and ozone radiative forcing

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Newsome ◽  
Mat Evans

Abstract. Chemical rate constants determine the composition of the atmosphere and how this composition has changed over time. They are central to our understanding of climate change and air quality degradation. Atmospheric chemistry models, whether online or offline, box, regional or global use these rate constants. Expert panels synthesise laboratory measurements, making recommendations for the rate constants that should be used. This results in very similar or identical rate constants being used by all models. The inherent uncertainties in these recommendations are, in general, therefore ignored. We explore the impact of these uncertainties on the composition of the troposphere using the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. Based on the JPL and IUPAC evaluations we assess 50 mainly inorganic rate constants and 10 photolysis rates, through simulations where we increase the rate of the reactions to the 1σ upper value recommended by the expert panels. We assess the impact on 4 standard metrics: annual mean tropospheric ozone burden, surface ozone and tropospheric OH concentrations, and tropospheric methane lifetime. Uncertainty in the rate constants for NO2 + OH    M →  HNO3, OH + CH4 → CH3O2 + H2O and O3 + NO → NO2 + O2 are the three largest source of uncertainty in these metrics. We investigate two methods of assessing these uncertainties, addition in quadrature and a Monte Carlo approach, and conclude they give similar outcomes. Combining the uncertainties across the 60 reactions, gives overall uncertainties on the annual mean tropospheric ozone burden, surface ozone and tropospheric OH concentrations, and tropospheric methane lifetime of 11, 12, 17 and 17 % respectively. These are larger than the spread between models in recent model inter-comparisons. Remote regions such as the tropics, poles, and upper troposphere are most uncertain. This chemical uncertainty is sufficiently large to suggest that rate constant uncertainty should be considered when model results disagree with measurement. Calculations for the pre-industrial allow a tropospheric ozone radiative forcing to be calculated of 0.412 ± 0.062 Wm−2. This uncertainty (15 %) is comparable to the inter-model spread in ozone radiative forcing found in previous model-model inter-comparison studies where the rate constants used in the models are all identical or very similar. Thus the uncertainty of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing should expanded to include this additional source of uncertainty. These rate constant uncertainties are significant and suggest that refinement of supposedly well known chemical rate constants should be considered alongside other improvements to enhance our understanding of atmospheric processes.

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 14333-14352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Newsome ◽  
Mat Evans

Abstract. Chemical rate constants determine the composition of the atmosphere and how this composition has changed over time. They are central to our understanding of climate change and air quality degradation. Atmospheric chemistry models, whether online or offline, box, regional or global, use these rate constants. Expert panels evaluate laboratory measurements, making recommendations for the rate constants that should be used. This results in very similar or identical rate constants being used by all models. The inherent uncertainties in these recommendations are, in general, therefore ignored. We explore the impact of these uncertainties on the composition of the troposphere using the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. Based on the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) evaluations we assess the influence of 50 mainly inorganic rate constants and 10 photolysis rates on tropospheric composition through the use of the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model. We assess the impact on four standard metrics: annual mean tropospheric ozone burden, surface ozone and tropospheric OH concentrations, and tropospheric methane lifetime. Uncertainty in the rate constants for NO2 + OH →M  HNO3 and O3 + NO  →  NO2 + O2 are the two largest sources of uncertainty in these metrics. The absolute magnitude of the change in the metrics is similar if rate constants are increased or decreased by their σ values. We investigate two methods of assessing these uncertainties, addition in quadrature and a Monte Carlo approach, and conclude they give similar outcomes. Combining the uncertainties across the 60 reactions gives overall uncertainties on the annual mean tropospheric ozone burden, surface ozone and tropospheric OH concentrations, and tropospheric methane lifetime of 10, 11, 16 and 16 %, respectively. These are larger than the spread between models in recent model intercomparisons. Remote regions such as the tropics, poles and upper troposphere are most uncertain. This chemical uncertainty is sufficiently large to suggest that rate constant uncertainty should be considered alongside other processes when model results disagree with measurement. Calculations for the pre-industrial simulation allow a tropospheric ozone radiative forcing to be calculated of 0.412 ± 0.062 W m−2. This uncertainty (13 %) is comparable to the inter-model spread in ozone radiative forcing found in previous model–model intercomparison studies where the rate constants used in the models are all identical or very similar. Thus, the uncertainty of tropospheric ozone radiative forcing should expanded to include this additional source of uncertainty. These rate constant uncertainties are significant and suggest that refinement of supposedly well-known chemical rate constants should be considered alongside other improvements to enhance our understanding of atmospheric processes.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 267-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. Brown ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
N. A. D. Richards ◽  
C. Boone ◽  
P. F. Bernath

Abstract. Fluorine-containing species can be extremely effective atmospheric greenhouse gases. We present fluorine budgets using organic and inorganic species retrieved by the ACE-FTS satellite instrument supplemented with output from the SLIMCAT 3-D chemical transport model. The budgets are calculated between 2004 and 2009 for a number of latitude bands: 70–30° N, 30–00° N, 00° N–30° S, and 30–70° S. At lower altitudes total fluorine profiles are dominated by the contribution from CFC-12, up to an altitude of 20 km in the extra-tropics and 29 km in the tropics; above these altitudes the profiles are dominated by hydrogen fluoride (HF). Our data show that total fluorine profiles at all locations have a negative slope with altitude, providing evidence that overall fluorine emissions (measured by their F content) have been increasing with time. Total stratospheric fluorine is increasing at a similar rate in the tropics: 32.5 ± 4.9 ppt yr−1 (1.31 ± 0.20% per year) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and 29.8 ± 5.3 ppt yr−1 (1.21 ± 0.22% per year) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Extra-tropical total stratospheric fluorine is also increasing at a similar rate in both the NH and SH: 28.3 ± 2.7 ppt per year (1.12 ± 0.11% per year) in the NH and 24.3 ± 3.1 ppt per year (0.96 ± 0.12% per year) in the SH. The calculation of radiative efficiency-weighted total fluorine allows the changes in radiative forcing between 2004 and 2009 to be calculated. These results show an increase in radiative forcing of between 0.23 ± 0.11% per year and 0.45 ± 0.11% per year, due to the increase in fluorine-containing species during this time. The decreasing trends in the mixing ratios of halons and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), due to their prohibition under the Montreal Protocol, have suppressed an increase in total fluorine caused by increasing mixing ratios of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). This has reduced the impact of fluorine-containing species on global warming.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 21455-21505
Author(s):  
E. Emili ◽  
B. Barret ◽  
S. Massart ◽  
E. Le Flochmoen ◽  
A. Piacentini ◽  
...  

Abstract. Accurate and temporally resolved fields of free-troposphere ozone are of major importance to quantify the intercontinental transport of pollution and the ozone radiative forcing. In this study we examine the impact of assimilating ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) in a global chemical transport model (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Échelle, MOCAGE). The assimilation of the two instruments is performed by means of a variational algorithm (4-D-VAR) and allows to constrain stratospheric and tropospheric ozone simultaneously. The analysis is first computed for the months of August and November 2008 and validated against ozone-sondes measurements to verify the presence of observations and model biases. It is found that the IASI Tropospheric Ozone Column (TOC, 1000–225 hPa) should be bias-corrected prior to assimilation and MLS lowermost level (215 hPa) excluded from the analysis. Furthermore, a longer analysis of 6 months (July–August 2008) showed that the combined assimilation of MLS and IASI is able to globally reduce the uncertainty (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE) of the modeled ozone columns from 30% to 15% in the Upper-Troposphere/Lower-Stratosphere (UTLS, 70–225 hPa) and from 25% to 20% in the free troposphere. The positive effect of assimilating IASI tropospheric observations is very significant at low latitudes (30° S–30° N), whereas it is not demonstrated at higher latitudes. Results are confirmed by a comparison with additional ozone datasets like the Measurements of OZone and wAter vapour by aIrbus in-service airCraft (MOZAIC) data, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) total ozone columns and several high-altitude surface measurements. Finally, the analysis is found to be little sensitive to the assimilation parameters and the model chemical scheme, due to the high frequency of satellite observations compared to the average life-time of free-troposphere/low-stratosphere ozone.


2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (14) ◽  
pp. 4061-4068 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cariolle ◽  
M. J. Evans ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
N. Butkovskaya ◽  
A. Kukui ◽  
...  

Abstract. We have studied the impact of the recently observed reaction NO+HO2→HNO3 on atmospheric chemistry. A pressure and temperature-dependent parameterisation of this minor channel of the NO+HO2→NO2+OH reaction has been included in both a 2-D stratosphere-troposphere model and a 3-D tropospheric chemical transport model (CTM). Significant effects on the nitrogen species and hydroxyl radical concentrations are found throughout the troposphere, with the largest percentage changes occurring in the tropical upper troposphere (UT). Including the reaction leads to a reduction in NOx everywhere in the troposphere, with the largest decrease of 25% in the tropical and Southern Hemisphere UT. The tropical UT also has a corresponding large increase in HNO3 of 25%. OH decreases throughout the troposphere with the largest reduction of over 20% in the tropical UT. The mean global decrease in OH is around 13%, which is very large compared to the impact that typical photochemical revisions have on this modelled quantity. This OH decrease leads to an increase in CH4 lifetime of 5%. Due to the impact of decreased NOx on the OH:HO2 partitioning, modelled HO2 actually increases in the tropical UT on including the new reaction. The impact on tropospheric ozone is a decrease in the range 5 to 12%, with the largest impact in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Comparison with observations shows that in the region of largest changes, i.e. the tropical UT, the inclusion of the new reaction tends to degrade the model agreement. Elsewhere the model comparisons are not able to critically assess the impact of including this reaction. Only small changes are calculated in the minor species distributions in the stratosphere.


2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 2695-2713 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Cariolle ◽  
M. J. Evans ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
N. Butkovskaya ◽  
A. Kukui ◽  
...  

Abstract. We have studied the impact of the recently established reaction NO+HO2→HNO3 on atmospheric chemistry. A pressure and temperature-dependent parameterisation of this minor channel of the NO+HO2→NO2+OH reaction has been included in both a 2-D stratosphere-troposphere model and a 3-D tropospheric chemical transport model (CTM). Significant effects on the nitrogen species and hydroxyl radical concentrations are found throughout the troposphere, with the largest percentage changes occurring in the tropical upper troposphere (UT). Including the reaction leads to a reduction in NOx everywhere in the troposphere, with the largest decrease of 25% in the tropical and southern hemisphere UT. The tropical UT also has a corresponding large increase in HNO3 of 25%. OH decreases throughout the troposphere with the largest reduction of over 20% in the tropical UT. Mean global decreases in OH are around 13% which leads to a increase in CH4 lifetime of 5%. Due to the impact of decreased NOx on the OH:HO2 partitioning, modelled HO2 actually increases in the tropical UT on including the new reaction. The impact on tropospheric ozone is a decrease in the range 5 to 12%, with the largest impact in the tropics and southern hemisphere. Comparison with observations shows that in the region of largest changes, i.e. the tropical UT, the inclusion of the new reaction tends to degrade the model agreement. Elsewhere the model comparisons are not able to critically assess the impact of including this reaction. Only small changes are calculated in the minor species distributions in the stratosphere.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 21125-21157 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Fry ◽  
M. D. Schwarzkopf ◽  
Z. Adelman ◽  
J. J. West

Abstract. Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) influence air quality and global climate change through their effects on secondary air pollutants and climate forcers. Here we simulate the air quality and radiative forcing (RF) impacts of changes in ozone, methane, and sulfate from halving anthropogenic NMVOC emissions globally and from 10 regions individually, using a global chemical transport model and a standalone radiative transfer model. Halving global NMVOC emissions decreases global annual average tropospheric methane and ozone by 36.6 ppbv and 3.3 Tg, respectively, and surface ozone by 0.67 ppbv. All regional reductions slow the production of PAN, resulting in regional to intercontinental PAN decreases and regional NOx increases. These NOx increases drive tropospheric ozone increases nearby or downwind of source regions in the Southern Hemisphere (South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Australia). Some regions' NMVOC emissions contribute importantly to air pollution in other regions, such as East Asia, Middle East, and Europe, whose impact on US surface ozone is 43%, 34%, and 34% of North America's impact. Global and regional NMVOC reductions produce widespread negative net RFs (cooling) across both hemispheres from tropospheric ozone and methane decreases, and regional warming and cooling from changes in tropospheric ozone and sulfate (via several oxidation pathways). The total global net RF for NMVOCs is estimated as 0.0277 W m−2 (~1.8% of CO2 RF since the preindustrial). The 100 yr and 20 yr global warming potentials (GWP100, GWP20) are 2.36 and 5.83 for the global reduction, and 0.079 to 6.05 and −1.13 to 18.9 among the 10 regions. The NMVOC RF and GWP estimates are generally lower than previously modeled estimates, due to differences among models in ozone, methane, and sulfate sensitivities, and the climate forcings included in each estimate. Accounting for a~fuller set of RF contributions may change the relative magnitude of each region's impacts. The large variability in the RF and GWP of NMVOCs among regions suggest that regionally-specific metrics may be necessary to include NMVOCs in multi-gas climate trading schemes.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 523-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Fry ◽  
M. D. Schwarzkopf ◽  
Z. Adelman ◽  
J. J. West

Abstract. Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) influence air quality and global climate change through their effects on secondary air pollutants and climate forcers. Here we simulate the air quality and radiative forcing (RF) impacts of changes in ozone, methane, and sulfate from halving anthropogenic NMVOC emissions globally and from 10 regions individually, using a global chemical transport model and a standalone radiative transfer model. Halving global NMVOC emissions decreases global annual average tropospheric methane and ozone by 36.6 ppbv and 3.3 Tg, respectively, and surface ozone by 0.67 ppbv. All regional reductions slow the production of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), resulting in regional to intercontinental PAN decreases and regional NOx increases. These NOx increases drive tropospheric ozone increases nearby or downwind of source regions in the Southern Hemisphere (South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Australia). Some regions' NMVOC emissions contribute importantly to air pollution in other regions, such as East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, whose impact on US surface ozone is 43%, 34%, and 34% of North America's impact. Global and regional NMVOC reductions produce widespread negative net RFs (cooling) across both hemispheres from tropospheric ozone and methane decreases, and regional warming and cooling from changes in tropospheric ozone and sulfate (via several oxidation pathways). The 100 yr and 20 yr global warming potentials (GWP100, GWP20) are 2.36 and 5.83 for the global reduction, and 0.079 to 6.05 and −1.13 to 18.9 among the 10 regions. The NMVOC RF and GWP estimates are generally lower than previously modeled estimates, due to the greater NMVOC/NOx emissions ratios simulated, which result in less sensitivity to NMVOC emissions changes and smaller global O3 burden responses, in addition to differences in the representation of NMVOCs and oxidation chemistry among models. Accounting for a fuller set of RF contributions may change the relative magnitude of each region's impacts. The large variability in the RF and GWP of NMVOCs among regions suggest that regionally specific metrics may be necessary to include NMVOCs in multi-gas climate trading schemes.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Emili ◽  
B. Barret ◽  
S. Massart ◽  
E. Le Flochmoen ◽  
A. Piacentini ◽  
...  

Abstract. Accurate and temporally resolved fields of free-troposphere ozone are of major importance to quantify the intercontinental transport of pollution and the ozone radiative forcing. We consider a global chemical transport model (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Échelle, MOCAGE) in combination with a linear ozone chemistry scheme to examine the impact of assimilating observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). The assimilation of the two instruments is performed by means of a variational algorithm (4D-VAR) and allows to constrain stratospheric and tropospheric ozone simultaneously. The analysis is first computed for the months of August and November 2008 and validated against ozonesonde measurements to verify the presence of observations and model biases. Furthermore, a longer analysis of 6 months (July–December 2008) showed that the combined assimilation of MLS and IASI is able to globally reduce the uncertainty (root mean square error, RMSE) of the modeled ozone columns from 30 to 15% in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS, 70–225 hPa). The assimilation of IASI tropospheric ozone observations (1000–225 hPa columns, TOC – tropospheric O3 column) decreases the RMSE of the model from 40 to 20% in the tropics (30° S–30° N), whereas it is not effective at higher latitudes. Results are confirmed by a comparison with additional ozone data sets like the Measurements of OZone and wAter vapour by aIrbus in-service airCraft (MOZAIC) data, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) total ozone columns and several high-altitude surface measurements. Finally, the analysis is found to be insensitive to the assimilation parameters. We conclude that the combination of a simplified ozone chemistry scheme with frequent satellite observations is a valuable tool for the long-term analysis of stratospheric and free-tropospheric ozone.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara Emmerichs ◽  
Bruno Franco ◽  
Catherine Wespes ◽  
Vinod Kumar ◽  
Andrea Pozzer ◽  
...  

Abstract. Near-surface ozone is an harmful air pollutant, which is determined to a considerable extent by weather-controlled processes, and may be significantly impacted by water vapour forming complexes with peroxy radicals. The role of water in the reaction of HO2 radical with nitrogen oxides is known from the literature, and in current models the water complex is considered by assuming a linear dependence on water concentrations. In fact, recent experimental evidence has been published, showing the significant role of water on the kinetics of one of the most important reaction for ozone chemistry, namely NO2 + OH. Here, the available kinetic data for the HOx + NOx reactions have been included in the atmospheric chemistry model ECHAM5/MESSy (EMAC) to test its global significance. Among the modified kinetics, the newly added HNO3 channel from HO2 + NO, dominates, significantly reducing NO2. A major removal process of near-surface ozone is dry deposition accounting for 20 % of the total tropospheric ozone loss mostly occurring over vegetation. However, parameterizations for modelling dry deposition represent a major source of uncertainty for tropospheric ozone simulations. This potentially belongs to the reasons why global models, such as EMAC used here, overestimate ozone with respect to observations. In fact, the employed parameterization is hardly sensitive to local meteorological conditions (e.g., humidity) and lacks non-stomatal deposition. In this study, a dry deposition scheme including these features have been used in EMAC, affecting not only the deposition of ozone but of its precursors, resulting in lower chemical production of ozone. Additionally, we improved the emissions of isoprene and nitrous acid (HONO). Namely, for isoprene emissions we have accounted for the impact of drought stress which confers a higher model sensitivity to meteorology leading to reduced annual emissions down to 32 %. For HONO, we have implemented soil emissions, which depend on soil moisture and thus on precipitation. We estimate for the first time a global source strength of 7 Tg(N) a−1. Furthermore, the usage of a parameterization for the production of lightning NOx that depends on cloud top height contributes to a more realistic representation of NO2 columns over remote oceans with respect to the satellite measurements of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The combination of all the model modifications reduces the simulated global ozone burden by ≈ 20 % to 337 Tg, which is in better agreement with recent estimates. By comparing simulation results with measurements from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) databases (of 2009) we demonstrate an overall reduction of the ozone bias by a factor of 2.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6723-6740 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Parrella ◽  
D. J. Jacob ◽  
Q. Liang ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
L. J. Mickley ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present a new model for the global tropospheric chemistry of inorganic bromine (Bry) coupled to oxidant-aerosol chemistry in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). Sources of tropospheric Bry include debromination of sea-salt aerosol, photolysis and oxidation of short-lived bromocarbons, and transport from the stratosphere. Comparison to a GOME-2 satellite climatology of tropospheric BrO columns shows that the model can reproduce the observed increase of BrO with latitude, the northern mid-latitudes maximum in winter, and the Arctic maximum in spring. This successful simulation is contingent on the HOBr + HBr reaction taking place in aqueous aerosols and ice clouds. Bromine chemistry in the model decreases tropospheric ozone mixing ratios by <1–8 nmol mol−1 (6.5% globally), with the largest effects in the northern extratropics in spring. The global mean tropospheric OH concentration decreases by 4%. Inclusion of bromine chemistry improves the ability of global models (GEOS-Chem and p-TOMCAT) to simulate observed 19th-century ozone and its seasonality. Bromine effects on tropospheric ozone are comparable in the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres so that estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are minimally affected. Br atom concentrations are 40% higher in the pre-industrial atmosphere due to lower ozone, which would decrease by a factor of 2 the atmospheric lifetime of elemental mercury against oxidation by Br. This suggests that historical anthropogenic mercury emissions may have mostly deposited to northern mid-latitudes, enriching the corresponding surface reservoirs. The persistent rise in background surface ozone at northern mid-latitudes during the past decades could possibly contribute to the observations of elevated mercury in subsurface waters of the North Atlantic.


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