scholarly journals The role of methane in projections of 21st century stratospheric water vapour

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Revell ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Eugene Rozanov ◽  
William Ball ◽  
Stefan Lossow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Methane Oxidation ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Canonical Representative ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapour (SWV) is an important component of the Earth's atmosphere as it affects both radiative balance and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Key processes driving changes in SWV through the 21st century include dehydration of air masses transiting the cold-point tropopause (CPT) and methane oxidation. Increasing surface temperatures may strengthen the Brewer-Dobson circulation, such that more methane is transported into the stratosphere where it can be oxidised to SWV. We use a chemistry-climate model to simulate changes in SWV through the 21st century following the four canonical Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Furthermore, we quantify the contribution that methane oxidation makes to SWV following each of the RCPs. The methane contribution to SWV maximises in the upper stratosphere, however modelled SWV trends are found to be driven predominantly by warming of the CPT and strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation rather than by increasing methane oxidation. SWV changes by −5 % to 60 % (depending on the location in the atmosphere and emissions scenario) and increases in the lower stratosphere in all RCPs through the 21st century. Because the lower stratosphere is where water vapour radiative forcing maximises, SWV's influence on surface climate is also expected to increase through the 21st century.

scholarly journals The role of methane in projections of 21st century stratospheric water vapour

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (20) ◽  
pp. 13067-13080 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura E. Revell ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Eugene Rozanov ◽  
William Ball ◽  
Stefan Lossow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Methane Oxidation ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Canonical Representative ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Stratospheric water vapour (SWV) is an important component of the Earth's atmosphere as it affects both radiative balance and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Key processes driving changes in SWV include dehydration of air masses transiting the cold-point tropopause (CPT) and methane oxidation. We use a chemistry–climate model to simulate changes in SWV through the 21st century following the four canonical representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Furthermore, we quantify the contribution that methane oxidation makes to SWV following each of the RCPs. Although the methane contribution to SWV maximizes in the upper stratosphere, modelled SWV trends are found to be driven predominantly by warming of the CPT rather than by increasing methane oxidation. SWV changes by −5 to 60 % (depending on the location in the atmosphere and emissions scenario) and increases in the lower stratosphere in all RCPs through the 21st century. Because the lower stratosphere is where water vapour radiative forcing maximizes, SWV's influence on surface climate is also expected to increase through the 21st century.

Long-term changes in stratospheric water vapour and its implications for climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michaela I. Hegglin
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

<p>Water vapour is the most important natural greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and provides a positive feedback to the climate forcing from carbon dioxide. Water vapour is also the source of hydroxyl (OH) which controls the lifetime of shorter-lived pollutants and long-lived greenhouse gases. Despite the importance of water vapour to chemistry and the radiative balance of the atmosphere, its observed long-term changes in the stratosphere are not well understood, and may even conflict with the theoretical understanding of its drivers. </p><p>I here present a new climate data record of stratospheric water vapour developed within the ESA Water Vapour Climate Change Initiative and discuss recent changes in stratospheric water vapour concentrations in the light of earlier observational studies, modelling results from the SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, and our theoretical understanding of its drivers. In addition, the radiative forcing of surface climate and inferred changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation will be highlighted. </p>

scholarly journals Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 6121-6139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Alexandru Rap ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm−2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm−2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm−2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm−2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm−2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry–climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm−2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ∼ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000–2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

Water vapour in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS): A new vertically resolved dataset from limb and nadir satellite observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Ye ◽  
Michaela Hegglin ◽  
Martina Krämer ◽  
Christian Rolf ◽  
Alexandra Laeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Data Record ◽  
Tropopause Region ◽  
Quality Water

<p>Water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) has a significant impact both on the radiative and chemical properties of the atmosphere. Reliable water vapour observations are essential for the evaluation of the accuracy of UTLS water vapour from model simulations, and thereafter of the contribution to the global radiative forcing and climate change. Limb-viewing and nadir satellites provide high quality water vapour observations above the lower stratosphere and below the upper troposphere, respectively, but show large uncertainties in the tropopause region.<span>  </span>Within the ESA Water Vapour Climate Change Initiative, we have developed a new scheme to optimally estimate water vapour profiles in the UTLS and in particular across the tropopause, by merging observations from a set of limb and nadir satellites from 2010 to 2014. The new data record of vertically resolved water vapour is validated against the aircraft in-situ water vapour observations from the JULIA database and frostpoint hydrometer records from WAVAS. Furthermore, the new data record is used to evaluate the UTLS water vapour distribution and interannual variations from chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations and the ERA-5 reanalysis.</p>

scholarly journals Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Alexandru Rap ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
Paul J. Young
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study we investigated the radiative effects of future ozone changes, using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantified the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change (with and without lightning feedback), (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculated future ozone radiative forcing relative to year 2000 of (1) 63 ± 76 m Wm−2, (2) 129 ± 81 m Wm−2, and (3) 225 ± 85 m Wm−2, due to climate change, ODSs and methane respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 420 ± 120 m Wm−2 relative to year 2000, and 750 ± 230 m Wm−2 relative to year 1750, with uncertainty range given by approximately ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry-climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is small (46 m Wm−2). Ozone forcings associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ~ 47 % of the overall radiative forcing in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Effects of Strongly Enhanced Atmospheric Methane Concentrations in a Fully Coupled Chemistry-Climate Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Stecher ◽  
Franziska Winterstein ◽  
Martin Dameris ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Michael Ponater ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydroxyl Radical ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Radiative Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. In a previous study the quasi-instantaneous chemical impacts (rapid adjustments) of strongly enhanced methane (CH4) mixing ratios have been analyzed. However, to quantify the influence of the respective slow climate feedbacks on the chemical composition it is necessary to include the radiation driven temperature feedback. Therefore, we perform sensitivity simulations with doubled and fivefold present-day (year 2010) CH4 mixing ratios with the chemistry-climate model EMAC and include in a novel set-up a mixed layer ocean model to account for tropospheric warming. We find that the slow climate feedbacks counteract the reduction of the hydroxyl radical in the troposphere, which is caused by the strongly enhanced CH4 mixing ratios. Thereby also the resulting prolongation of the tropospheric CH4 lifetime is weakened compared to the quasi-instantaneous response considered previously. Changes in the stratospheric circulation evolve clearly with the warming of the troposphere. The Brewer-Dobson circulation strengthens, affecting the response of trace gases, such as ozone, water vapour and CH4 in the stratosphere, and also causing stratospheric temperature changes. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the increase of stratospheric water vapour is reduced with respect to the quasi-instantaneous response. Weaker increases of the hydroxyl radical cause the chemical depletion of CH4 to be less strongly enhanced and thus the in situ source of stratospheric water vapour as well. However, in the lower stratosphere water vapour increases more strongly when tropospheric warming is accounted for enlarging its overall radiative impact. The response of the stratospheric adjusted temperatures driven by slow climate feedbacks is dominated by these increases of stratospheric water vapour, as well as strongly decreased ozone mixing ratios above the tropical tropopause, which result from enhanced tropical upwelling. While rapid radiative adjustments from ozone and stratospheric water vapour make an essential contribution to the effective CH4 radiative forcing, the radiative impact of the respective slow feedbacks is rather moderate. In line with this, the climate sensitivity from CH4 changes in this chemistry-climate model setup is not significantly different from the climate sensitivity in carbon dioxide-driven simulations, provided that the CH4 effective radiative forcing includes the rapid adjustments from ozone and stratospheric water vapour changes.

scholarly journals Slow feedbacks resulting from strongly enhanced atmospheric methane mixing ratios in a chemistry–climate model with mixed-layer ocean

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 731-754
Author(s):  
Laura Stecher ◽  
Franziska Winterstein ◽  
Martin Dameris ◽  
Patrick Jöckel ◽  
Michael Ponater ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Mixed Layer Ocean ◽  
Radiative Impact ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. In a previous study the quasi-instantaneous chemical impacts (rapid adjustments) of strongly enhanced methane (CH4) mixing ratios have been analysed. However, to quantify the influence of the respective slow climate feedbacks on the chemical composition it is necessary to include the radiation-driven temperature feedback. Therefore, we perform sensitivity simulations with doubled and quintupled present-day (year 2010) CH4 mixing ratios with the chemistry–climate model EMAC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Hamburg version – Modular Earth Submodel System (ECHAM/MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry) and include in a novel set-up a mixed-layer ocean model to account for tropospheric warming. Strong increases in CH4 lead to a reduction in the hydroxyl radical in the troposphere, thereby extending the CH4 lifetime. Slow climate feedbacks counteract this reduction in the hydroxyl radical through increases in tropospheric water vapour and ozone, thereby dampening the extension of CH4 lifetime in comparison with the quasi-instantaneous response. Changes in the stratospheric circulation evolve clearly with the warming of the troposphere. The Brewer–Dobson circulation strengthens, affecting the response of trace gases, such as ozone, water vapour and CH4 in the stratosphere, and also causing stratospheric temperature changes. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the increase in stratospheric water vapour is reduced with respect to the quasi-instantaneous response. We find that this difference cannot be explained by the response of the cold point and the associated water vapour entry values but by a weaker strengthening of the in situ source of water vapour through CH4 oxidation. However, in the lower stratosphere water vapour increases more strongly when tropospheric warming is accounted for, enlarging its overall radiative impact. The response of the stratosphere adjusted temperatures driven by slow climate feedbacks is dominated by these increases in stratospheric water vapour as well as strongly decreased ozone mixing ratios above the tropical tropopause, which result from enhanced tropical upwelling. While rapid radiative adjustments from ozone and stratospheric water vapour make an essential contribution to the effective CH4 radiative forcing, the radiative impact of the respective slow feedbacks is rather moderate. In line with this, the climate sensitivity from CH4 changes in this chemistry–climate model set-up is not significantly different from the climate sensitivity in carbon-dioxide-driven simulations, provided that the CH4 effective radiative forcing includes the rapid adjustments from ozone and stratospheric water vapour changes.

scholarly journals The Impact of Volcanic Eruptions of Different Magnitude on Stratospheric Water Vapour in the Tropics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Alicia Kroll ◽  
Sally Dacie ◽  
Alon Azoulay ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Claudia Timmreck
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Point Temperature ◽  
Historical Simulation ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions increase the stratospheric water vapour (SWV) entry via long wave heating through the aerosol layer in the cold point region, and this additional SWV alters the atmospheric energy budget. We analyze tropical volcanic eruptions of different eruption strengths with sulfur (S) injections ranging from 2.5 Tg S up to 40 Tg S using EVAens, the 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model in its low resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) with artificial volcanic forcing generated by the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) tool. Significant increases in SWV are found for the mean over all ensemble members from 2.5 Tg S onward ranging between [5,160] %, while for single ensemble members the standard deviation between the control run members (0 Tg S) is larger than SWV increase of single ensemble members for the eruption strengths up to 20 Tg S. A historical simulation using observation based forcing files of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which was estimated to have emitted (7.5 ± 2.5) Tg S, returns SWV increases slightly higher than the 10 Tg S EVAens simulations due to differences in the aerosol profile shape. An additional amplification of the tape recorder signal is also apparent, which is not present in the 10 Tg S run. These differences underline that it is not only the eruption volume, but also the aerosol layer shape and location with respect to the cold point that have to be considered for post-eruption SWV increases. The additional tropical clear sky SWV forcing for the different eruption strengths amounts to [0.02, 0.65] W/m2, ranging between [2.5, 4] percent of the aerosol radiative forcing in the 10 Tg S scenario. The monthly cold point temperature increases leading to the SWV increase are not linear with respect to AOD nor is the corresponding SWV forcing, among others, due to hysteresis effects, seasonal dependencies, aerosol profile heights, and feedbacks. However, knowledge of the cold point temperature increase allows for an estimation of SWV increases with a 12 % increase per Kelvin increase in mean cold point temperature, and yearly averages show an approximately linear behaviour in the cold point warming and SWV forcing with respect to the AOD.

scholarly journals The millennium water vapour drop in chemistry-climate model simulations

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (17) ◽  
pp. 24909-24953 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brinkop ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
P. Jöckel ◽  
H. Garny ◽  
S. Lossow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. This study investigates the abrupt and severe water vapour decline in the stratosphere beginning in year 2000 (the "millennium water vapour drop") and other similar stratospheric water vapour drops by means of various simulations with the state-of-the-art Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry Model). The CCM EMAC is able to reproduce the signature and pattern of the water vapour disturbances in agreement with those derived from satellite observations. Model data confirm that this extraordinary water vapour decline is in particular obvious in the tropical lower stratosphere. The starting point of the severe water vapour drop is identified in the tropical lower stratosphere and the start date is found to be in the early days of 2000. We show that the driving forces for this significant drop in water vapour mixing ratios are tropical sea surface temperature changes due to a preceding strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation event (1997/98), which was followed by a La Niña and supported by the prevailing western phase of the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at that time. This constellation of ENSO and QBO obviously lead to the outstanding anomalies in meteorological quantities which are identified in the equatorial atmosphere: (a) a distinct warming (up to 1 K) of the tropical upper troposphere (200 to 120 hPa) beginning in mid-1997 and lasting for about one and a half years, (b) a strong warming (up to 2.5 K) of the tropical lower stratosphere (100 to 50 hPa), beginning in early 1999 and ending in early 2000, and (c) a significantly enhanced upwelling at the tropopause in the late 1990s and an obviously reduced upwelling around the year 2000 followed by a period of enhanced upwelling again. These dynamically induced changes are unambiguously connected to the stratospheric water vapour anomaly. Similarly strong water vapour reductions are also found in other years, and seem to be a~typical feature after strong combined El Niño/La Niña events, if the QBO west phase has prolonged down to the tropopause.

scholarly journals Simulation of the isotopic composition of stratospheric water vapour – Part 1: Description and evaluation of the EMAC model

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 5537-5555 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Eichinger ◽  
P. Jöckel ◽  
S. Brinkop ◽  
M. Werner ◽  
S. Lossow
Keyword(s):  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Isotope Ratios ◽  
Physical Fractionation ◽  
Water Isotopologues ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. This modelling study aims at an improved understanding of the processes that determine the water vapour budget in the stratosphere by means of the investigation of water isotope ratios. An additional (and separate from the actual) hydrological cycle has been introduced into the chemistry–climate model EMAC, including the water isotopologues HDO and H218O and their physical fractionation processes. Additionally an explicit computation of the contribution of methane oxidation to H2O and HDO has been incorporated. The model expansions allow detailed analyses of water vapour and its isotope ratio with respect to deuterium throughout the stratosphere and in the transition region to the troposphere. In order to assure the correct representation of the water isotopologues in the model's hydrological cycle, the expanded system has been evaluated in several steps. The physical fractionation effects have been evaluated by comparison of the simulated isotopic composition of precipitation with measurements from a ground-based network (GNIP) and with the results from the isotopologue-enabled general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso. The model's representation of the chemical HDO precursor CH3D in the stratosphere has been confirmed by a comparison with chemical transport models (1-D, CHEM2D) and measurements from radiosonde flights. Finally, the simulated stratospheric HDO and the isotopic composition of water vapour have been evaluated, with respect to retrievals from three different satellite instruments (MIPAS, ACE-FTS, SMR). Discrepancies in stratospheric water vapour isotope ratios between two of the three satellite retrievals can now partly be explained.

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