scholarly journals A Global Synthesis Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in CO<sub>2</sub> Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Wang ◽  
S. Randolph Kawa ◽  
G. James Collatz ◽  
Motoki Sasakawa ◽  
Luciana V. Gatti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The precise contribution of the two major sinks for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, terrestrial vegetation and the ocean, and their location and year-to-year variability are not well understood. Top-down estimates of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 are expected to benefit from the increasing measurement density brought by recent in situ and remote CO2 observations. We uniquely apply a batch Bayesian synthesis inversion at relatively high resolution to in situ surface observations and bias-corrected GOSAT satellite column CO2 retrievals to deduce the global distributions of natural CO2 fluxes during 2009–2010. Our objectives include evaluating bottom-up prior flux estimates, assessing the value added by the satellite data, and examining the impacts of inversion technique and assumptions on posterior fluxes and uncertainties. The GOSAT inversion is generally better constrained than the in situ inversion, with smaller posterior regional flux uncertainties and correlations, because of greater spatial coverage, except over North America and high-latitude ocean. Complementarity of the in situ and GOSAT data enhances uncertainty reductions in a joint inversion; however, spatial and temporal gaps in sampling still limit the ability to accurately resolve fluxes down to the sub-continental scale. The GOSAT inversion produces a shift in the global CO2 sink from the tropics to the north and south relative to the prior, and an increased source in the tropics of ~ 2 Pg C y−1 relative to the in situ inversion, similar to what is seen in studies using other inversion approaches. This result may be driven by sampling and residual retrieval biases in the GOSAT data, as suggested by significant discrepancies between posterior CO2 distributions and surface in situ and HIPPO mission aircraft data. While the shift in the global sink appears to be a robust feature of the inversions, the partitioning of the sink between land and ocean in the inversions using either in situ or GOSAT data is found to be sensitive to prior uncertainties because of negative correlations in the flux errors. The GOSAT inversion indicates significantly less CO2 uptake in summer of 2010 than in 2009 across northern regions, consistent with the impact of observed severe heat waves and drought. However, observations from an in situ network in Siberia imply that the GOSAT inversion exaggerates the 2010–2009 difference in uptake in that region, while the prior CASA-GFED model of net ecosystem production and fire emissions reasonably estimates that quantity. The prior, in situ posterior, and GOSAT posterior all indicate greater uptake over North America in spring to early summer of 2010 than in 2009, consistent with wetter conditions. The GOSAT inversion does not show the expected impact on fluxes of a 2010 drought in the Amazon; evaluation of posterior mole fractions against local aircraft profiles suggests that time-varying GOSAT coverage can bias estimation of flux interannual variability in this region.

scholarly journals A global synthesis inversion analysis of recent variability in CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes using GOSAT and in situ observations

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 11097-11124 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Wang ◽  
S. Randolph Kawa ◽  
G. James Collatz ◽  
Motoki Sasakawa ◽  
Luciana V. Gatti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Joint Inversion ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The precise contribution of the two major sinks for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, terrestrial vegetation and the ocean, and their location and year-to-year variability are not well understood. Top-down estimates of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 are expected to benefit from the increasing measurement density brought by recent in situ and remote CO2 observations. We uniquely apply a batch Bayesian synthesis inversion at relatively high resolution to in situ surface observations and bias-corrected GOSAT satellite column CO2 retrievals to deduce the global distributions of natural CO2 fluxes during 2009–2010. The GOSAT inversion is generally better constrained than the in situ inversion, with smaller posterior regional flux uncertainties and correlations, because of greater spatial coverage, except over North America and northern and southern high-latitude oceans. Complementarity of the in situ and GOSAT data enhances uncertainty reductions in a joint inversion; however, remaining coverage gaps, including those associated with spatial and temporal sampling biases in the passive satellite measurements, still limit the ability to accurately resolve fluxes down to the sub-continental or sub-ocean basin scale. The GOSAT inversion produces a shift in the global CO2 sink from the tropics to the north and south relative to the prior, and an increased source in the tropics of ∼ 2 Pg C yr−1 relative to the in situ inversion, similar to what is seen in studies using other inversion approaches. This result may be driven by sampling and residual retrieval biases in the GOSAT data, as suggested by significant discrepancies between posterior CO2 distributions and surface in situ and HIPPO mission aircraft data. While the shift in the global sink appears to be a robust feature of the inversions, the partitioning of the sink between land and ocean in the inversions using either in situ or GOSAT data is found to be sensitive to prior uncertainties because of negative correlations in the flux errors. The GOSAT inversion indicates significantly less CO2 uptake in the summer of 2010 than in 2009 across northern regions, consistent with the impact of observed severe heat waves and drought. However, observations from an in situ network in Siberia imply that the GOSAT inversion exaggerates the 2010–2009 difference in uptake in that region, while the prior CASA-GFED model of net ecosystem production and fire emissions reasonably estimates that quantity. The prior, in situ posterior, and GOSAT posterior all indicate greater uptake over North America in spring to early summer of 2010 than in 2009, consistent with wetter conditions. The GOSAT inversion does not show the expected impact on fluxes of a 2010 drought in the Amazon; evaluation of posterior mole fractions against local aircraft profiles suggests that time-varying GOSAT coverage can bias the estimation of interannual flux variability in this region.

Impact of Initial Soil Moisture Anomalies on Subsequent Precipitation over North America in the Coupled Land–Atmosphere Model CAM3–CLM3

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeonjoo Kim ◽  
Guiling Wang
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
North America ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
Shallow Soils ◽  
The Impact

Abstract To investigate the impact of anomalous soil moisture conditions on subsequent precipitation over North America, a series of numerical experiments is performed using a modified version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 and the Community Land Model version 3 (CAM3–CLM3). First, the mechanisms underlying the impact of spring and summer soil moisture on subsequent precipitation are examined based on simulations starting on 1 April and 1 June, respectively. How the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on the characteristics of such anomalies, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage, and vertical depth, is then investigated. There are five main findings. First, the impact of spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident until early summer although their impact on the large-scale circulation results in slight changes in precipitation during spring. Second, precipitation increases with initial soil moisture almost linearly within a certain range of soil moisture. Beyond this range, precipitation is less responsive. Third, during the first month following the onset of summer soil moisture anomalies, the precipitation response to wet anomalies is larger in magnitude than that to dry anomalies. However, the resulting wet anomalies in precipitation quickly dissipate within a month or so, while the resulting dry anomalies in precipitation remain at a considerable magnitude for a longer period. Consistently, wet spring anomalies are likely to be ameliorated before summer, and thus have a smaller impact (in magnitude) on summer precipitation than dry spring anomalies. Fourth, soil moisture anomalies of smaller spatial coverage lead to precipitation anomalies that are smaller and less persistent, compared to anomalies at the continental scale. Finally, anomalies in shallow soil can persist long enough to influence the subsequent precipitation at the seasonal time scale. Dry anomalies in deep soils last much longer than those in shallow soils.

scholarly journals Modelling African biomass burning emissions and the effect of spatial resolution

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dave van Wees ◽  
Guido R. van der Werf
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Large-scale fire emission estimates may be influenced by the spatial resolution of the model and input datasets used. Especially in areas with relatively heterogeneous land cover, a coarse model resolution might lead to substantial errors in estimates. In this paper, we developed a model using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations of burned area and vegetation characteristics to study the impact of spatial resolution on modelled fire emission estimates. We estimated fire emissions for sub-Saharan Africa at 500-meter spatial resolution (native MODIS burned area) for the 2002–2017 period, using a simplified version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) modelling framework, and compared this to model runs at a range of coarser resolutions (0.050°, 0.125°, 0.250°). We estimated fire emissions of 0.68 PgC yr−1 at 500-meter resolution and 0.82 PgC yr−1 at 0.25° resolution; a difference of 24 %. At 0.25° resolution, our model results were relatively similar to GFED4, which also runs at 0.25° resolution, whereas our 500-meter estimates were substantially lower. We found that lower emissions at finer resolutions are mainly the result of reduced representation errors when comparing modelled estimates of fuel load and consumption to field measurements, as part of the model calibration. Additional errors stem from the model simulation at coarse resolution and lead to an additional 0.02 PgC yr−1 difference in estimates. These errors exist due to the aggregation of quantitative and qualitative model input data; the average- or majority- aggregated values are propagated in the coarse resolution simulation and affect the model parameterization and the final result. We identified at least three error mechanisms responsible for the differences in estimates between 500-meter and 0.25° resolution simulations, besides those stemming from representation errors in the calibration process, namely: 1. biome misclassification leading to errors in parameterization, 2. errors due to the averaging of input data and the associated reduction in variability, and 3. a temporal mechanism related to the aggregation of burned area in particular. Even though these mechanisms largely neutralized each other and only modestly affect estimates at a continental scale, they lead to substantial error at regional scales with deviations up to a factor 4, and may affect large-scale estimates differently for other continents. These findings could prove valuable in improving coarse resolution models and suggest the need for increased spatial resolution in global fire emission models.

scholarly journals Gradients of column CO<sub>2</sub> across North America from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 15151-15165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Lan ◽  
Pieter Tans ◽  
Colm Sweeney ◽  
Arlyn Andrews ◽  
Andrew Jacobson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Reference Network ◽  
Spatial Gradients ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Satellite Retrievals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. This study analyzes seasonal and spatial patterns of column carbon dioxide (CO2) over North America, calculated from aircraft and tall tower measurements from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network from 2004 to 2014. Consistent with expectations, gradients between the eight regions studied are larger below 2 km than above 5 km. The 11-year mean CO2 dry mole fraction (XCO2) in the column below  ∼  330 hPa ( ∼  8 km above sea level) from NOAA's CO2 data assimilation model, CarbonTracker (CT2015), demonstrates good agreement with those calculated from calibrated measurements on aircraft and towers. Total column XCO2 was attained by combining modeled CO2 above 330 hPa from CT2015 with the measurements. We find large spatial gradients of total column XCO2 from June to August, with north and northeast regions having  ∼  3 ppm stronger summer drawdown (peak-to-valley amplitude in seasonal cycle) than the south and southwest regions. The long-term averaged spatial gradients of total column XCO2 across North America show a smooth pattern that mainly reflects the large-scale circulation. We have conducted a CarbonTracker experiment to investigate the impact of Eurasian long-range transport. The result suggests that the large summertime Eurasian boreal flux contributes about half of the north–south column XCO2 gradient across North America. Our results confirm that continental-scale total column XCO2 gradients simulated by CarbonTracker are realistic and can be used to evaluate the credibility of some spatial patterns from satellite retrievals, such as the long-term average of growing-season spatial patterns from satellite retrievals reported for Europe which show a larger spatial difference ( ∼  6 ppm) and scattered hot spots.

scholarly journals Multi-model study of chemical and physical controls on transport of anthropogenic and biomass burning pollution to the Arctic

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 25281-25350 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. Monks ◽  
S. R. Arnold ◽  
L. K. Emmons ◽  
K. S. Law ◽  
S. Turquety ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Substantial Improvement ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Lower Latitude ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Using observations from aircraft, surface stations and satellite, we comprehensively evaluate multi-model simulations of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) in the Arctic and over lower latitude emission regions, as part of the POLARCAT Model Inter-comparison Project (POLMIP). Evaluation of eleven atmospheric models with chemistry shows that they generally underestimate CO throughout the Arctic troposphere, with the largest biases found during winter and spring. Negative CO biases are also found throughout the Northern Hemisphere, with multi-model mean gross errors (9–12%) suggesting models perform similarly over Asia, North America and Europe. A multi-model annual mean tropospheric OH (10.8 ± 0.6 × 105 molec cm−3) is found to be slightly higher than previous estimates of OH constrained by methyl chloroform, suggesting negative CO biases in models may be improved through better constraints on OH. Models that have lower Arctic OH do not always show a substantial improvement in their negative CO biases, suggesting that Arctic OH is not the dominant factor controlling the Arctic CO burden in these models. In addition to these general biases, models do not capture the magnitude of CO enhancements observed in the Arctic free troposphere in summer, suggesting model errors in the simulation of plumes that are transported from anthropogenic and biomass burning sources at lower latitudes. O3 in the Arctic is also generally underestimated, particularly at the surface and in the upper troposphere. Summer O3 comparisons over lower latitudes show several models overestimate upper tropospheric concentrations. Simulated CO, O3 and OH all demonstrate a substantial degree of inter-model variability. Idealised CO-like tracers are used to quantitatively compare the impact of inter-model differences in transport and OH on CO in the Arctic troposphere. The tracers show that model differences in transport from Europe in winter and from Asia throughout the year are important sources of model variability at the Barrow. Unlike transport, inter-model variability in OH similarly affects all regional tracers at Barrow. Comparisons of fixed lifetime and OH-loss idealised CO-like tracers throughout the Arctic troposphere show that OH differences are a much larger source of inter-model variability than transport differences. The concentration of OH in the models is found to be correlated with inter-model differences in H2O, suggesting it to be an important driver of differences in simulated concentrations of CO and OH at high latitudes in these simulations. Despite inter-model differences in transport and OH, the relative contributions from the different source regions (North America, Europe and Asia) and different source types (anthropogenic and biomass burning) are comparable across the models. Fire emissions from the boreal regions in 2008 contribute 33, 43 and 19% to the total Arctic CO-like tracer in spring, summer and autumn, respectively, highlighting the importance of boreal fire emissions in controlling pollutant burdens in the Arctic.

scholarly journals Age structure and disturbance legacy of North American forests

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 979-1020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Pan ◽  
J. M. Chen ◽  
R. Birdsey ◽  
K. McCullough ◽  
L. He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Forest Type ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
Forest Recovery ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Forest Age ◽  
Inventory Data ◽  
Disturbance Legacy ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Most forests of the world are recovering from a past disturbance. It is well known that forest disturbances profoundly affect carbon stock and fluxes in forest ecosystems, yet it has been a great challenge to assess disturbance impacts in estimates of forest carbon budgets. Net sequestration or loss of CO2 by forests after disturbance follows a predictable pattern with forest recovery. Forest age, which is related to time since disturbance, is the most available surrogate variable for various forest carbon analyses that concern the impact of disturbance. In this study, we compiled the first continental forest age map of North America by combining forest inventory data, historical fire data, optical satellite data and the dataset from NASA's LEDAPS project. Mexico and interior Alaska are excluded from this initial map due to unavailability of all required data sets, but work is underway to develop some different methodology for these areas. We discuss the significance of disturbance legacy from the past, as represented by current forest age structure in different regions of the US and Canada, tracking back disturbances caused by human and nature over centuries and at various scales. We also show how such information can be used with inventory data for analyzing carbon management opportunities, and other modeling applications. By combining geographic information about forest age with estimated C dynamics by forest type, it is possible to conduct a simple but powerful analysis of the net CO2 uptake by forests, and the potential for increasing (or decreasing) this rate as a result of direct human intervention in the disturbance/age status. The forest age map may also help address the recent concern that the terrestrial C sink from forest regrowth in North America may saturate in the next few decades. Finally, we describe how the forest age data can be used in large-scale carbon modeling, both for land-based biogeochemistry models and atmosphere-based inversion models, in order to improve the spatial accuracy of carbon cycle simulations.

scholarly journals OMI satellite observations of decadal changes in ground-level sulfur dioxide over North America

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 5921-5929 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh K. Kharol ◽  
Chris A. McLinden ◽  
Christopher E. Sioris ◽  
Mark W. Shephard ◽  
Vitali Fioletov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
North America ◽  
Sulfur Dioxide ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Ozone Monitoring Instrument ◽  
Control Laws ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) has a significant impact on the environment and human health. We estimated ground-level sulfur dioxide (SO2) concentrations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using SO2 profiles from the Global Environmental Multi-scale – Modelling Air quality and CHemistry (GEM-MACH) model over North America for the period of 2005–2015. OMI-derived ground-level SO2 concentrations (r = 0. 61) and trends (r = 0. 74) correlated well with coincident in situ measurements from air quality networks over North America. We found a strong decreasing trend in coincidently sampled ground-level SO2 from OMI (−81 ± 19 %) and in situ measurements (−86 ± 13 %) over the eastern US for the period of 2005–2015, which reflects the implementation of stricter pollution control laws, including flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) devices in power plants. The spatially and temporally contiguous OMI-derived ground-level SO2 concentrations can be used to assess the impact of long-term exposure to SO2 on the health of humans and the environment.

scholarly journals Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bastos ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
Stephen Sitch ◽  
Chi Chen ◽  
Arnaud Mialon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO 2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr −1 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr −1 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

scholarly journals Modelling biomass burning emissions and the effect of spatial resolution: a case study for Africa based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4681-4703
Author(s):  
Dave van Wees ◽  
Guido R. van der Werf
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Large-scale fire emission estimates may be influenced by the spatial resolution of the model and input datasets used. Especially in areas with relatively heterogeneous land cover, a coarse model resolution might lead to substantial errors in estimates. We developed a model using MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations of burned area and vegetation characteristics to study the impact of spatial resolution on modelled fire emission estimates. We estimated fire emissions for sub-Saharan Africa at 500 m spatial resolution (native MODIS burned area) for the 2002–2017 period, using a simplified version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) modelling framework, and compared this to model runs at a range of coarser resolutions (0.050, 0.125, 0.250∘). We estimated fire emissions of 0.68 Pg C yr−1 at 500 m resolution and 0.82 Pg C yr−1 at 0.25∘ resolution; a difference of 24 %. At 0.25∘ resolution, our model results were relatively similar to GFED4, which also runs at 0.25∘ resolution, whereas our 500 m estimates were substantially lower. We found that lower emissions at finer resolutions are mainly the result of reduced representation errors when comparing modelled estimates of fuel load and consumption to field measurements, as part of the model calibration. Additional errors stem from the model simulation at coarse resolution and lead to an additional 0.02 Pg C yr−1 difference in estimates. These errors exist due to the aggregation of quantitative and qualitative model input data; the average- or majority- aggregated values are propagated in the coarse-resolution simulation and affect the model parameterization and the final result. We identified at least three error mechanisms responsible for the differences in estimates between 500 m and 0.25∘ resolution simulations, besides those stemming from representation errors in the calibration process, namely (1) biome misclassification leading to errors in parameterization, (2) errors due to the averaging of input data and the associated reduction in variability, and (3) a temporal mechanism related to the aggregation of burned area in particular. Even though these mechanisms largely neutralized each other and only modestly affect estimates at a continental scale, they lead to substantial error at regional scales with deviations of up to a factor 4 and may affect large-scale estimates differently for other continents. These findings could prove valuable in improving coarse-resolution models and suggest the need for increased spatial resolution in global fire emission models.

scholarly journals Impact of forest fires, biogenic emissions and high temperatures on the elevated Eastern Mediterranean ozone levels during the hot summer of 2007

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 8727-8750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ø. Hodnebrog ◽  
S. Solberg ◽  
F. Stordal ◽  
T. M. Svendby ◽  
D. Simpson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Temperatures ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Dry Deposition ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Biogenic Emissions ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ozone Levels

Abstract. The hot summer of 2007 in southeast Europe has been studied using two regional atmospheric chemistry models; WRF-Chem and EMEP MSC-W. The region was struck by three heat waves and a number of forest fire episodes, greatly affecting air pollution levels. We have focused on ozone and its precursors using state-of-the-art inventories for anthropogenic, biogenic and forest fire emissions. The models have been evaluated against measurement data, and processes leading to ozone formation have been quantified. Heat wave episodes are projected to occur more frequently in a future climate, and therefore this study also makes a contribution to climate change impact research. The plume from the Greek forest fires in August 2007 is clearly seen in satellite observations of CO and NO2 columns, showing extreme levels of CO in and downwind of the fires. Model simulations reflect the location and influence of the fires relatively well, but the modelled magnitude of CO in the plume core is too low. Most likely, this is caused by underestimation of CO in the emission inventories, suggesting that the CO/NOx ratios of fire emissions should be re-assessed. Moreover, higher maximum values are seen in WRF-Chem than in EMEP MSC-W, presumably due to differences in plume rise altitudes as the first model emits a larger fraction of the fire emissions in the lowermost model layer. The model results are also in fairly good agreement with surface ozone measurements. Biogenic VOC emissions reacting with anthropogenic NOx emissions are calculated to contribute significantly to the levels of ozone in the region, but the magnitude and geographical distribution depend strongly on the model and biogenic emission module used. During the July and August heat waves, ozone levels increased substantially due to a combination of forest fire emissions and the effect of high temperatures. We found that the largest temperature impact on ozone was through the temperature dependence of the biogenic emissions, closely followed by the effect of reduced dry deposition caused by closing of the plants' stomata at very high temperatures. The impact of high temperatures on the ozone chemistry was much lower. The results suggest that forest fire emissions, and the temperature effect on biogenic emissions and dry deposition, will potentially lead to substantial ozone increases in a warmer climate.

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