scholarly journals Addressing the difficulties in quantifying the Twomey effect for marine warm clouds from multi-sensor satellite observations and reanalysis

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailing Jia ◽  
Johannes Quaas ◽  
Edward Gryspeerdt ◽  
Christoph Böhm ◽  
Odran Sourdeval
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Observational Estimate ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Aerosol Effects

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interaction is the most uncertain component of the overall anthropogenic forcing of the climate, in which the Twomey effect plays a fundamental role. Satellite-based estimates of the Twomey effect are especially challenging, mainly due to the difficulty in disentangling aerosol effects on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) from possible confounders. By combining multiple satellite observations and reanalysis, this study investigates the impacts of a) updraft, b) precipitation, c) retrieval errors, as well as (d) vertical co-location between aerosol and cloud, on the assessment of Nd-toaerosol sensitivity (S) in the context of marine warm (liquid) clouds. Our analysis suggests that S increases remarkably with both cloud base height and cloud geometric thickness (proxies for vertical velocity at cloud base), consistent with stronger aerosol-cloud interactions at larger updraft velocity. In turn, introducing the confounding effect of aerosol–precipitation interaction can artificially amplify S by an estimated 21 %, highlighting the necessity of removing precipitating clouds from analyses on the Twomey effect. It is noted that the retrieval biases in aerosol and cloud appear to underestimate S, in which cloud fraction acts as a key modulator, making it practically difficult to balance the accuracies of aerosol–cloud retrievals at aggregate scales (e.g., 1° × 1° grid). Moreover, we show that using column-integrated sulfate mass concentration (SO4C) to approximate sulfate concentration at cloud base (SO4B) can result in a degradation of correlation with Nd, along with a nearly twofold enhancement of S, mostly attributed to the inability of SO4C to capture the full spatio-temporal variability of SO4B. These findings point to several potential ways forward to account for the major influential factors practically by means of satellite observations and reanalysis, aiming at an optimal observational estimate of global radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

Addressing the difficulties in quantifying the Twomey effect for marine warm clouds from multi-sensor satellite observations and reanalysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailing Jia ◽  
Johannes Quaas
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Cloud Droplet Number Concentration ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Observational Estimate ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Aerosol Effects

<p>Aerosol–cloud interaction is the most uncertain component of the overall anthropogenic forcing of the climate, inwhich the Twomey effect plays a fundamental role. Satellite-based estimates of the Twomey effect are especially challenging, mainly due to the difficulty in disentangling aerosol effects on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) from possible confounders. By combining multiple satellite observations and reanalysis, this study investigates the impacts of a) updraft, b) precipitation, c) retrieval errors, as well as (d) vertical co-location between aerosol and cloud, on the assessment of Nd-to-aerosol sensitivity (S) in the context of marine warm (liquid) clouds. Our analysis suggests that S increases remarkably with both cloud base height and cloud geometric thickness (proxies for vertical velocity at cloud base), consistent with stronger aerosol-cloud interactions at larger updraft velocity. In turn, introducing the confounding effect of aerosol–precipitation interaction can artificially amplify S by an estimated 21 %, highlighting the necessity of removing precipitating clouds from analyses on the Twomey effect. It is noted that the retrieval biases in aerosol and cloud appear to underestimate S, in which cloud fraction acts as a key modulator, making it practically difficult to balance the accuracies of aerosol–cloud retrievals at aggregate scales (e.g., 1◦ × 1◦ grid). Moreover, we show that using column-integrated sulfate mass concentration (SO4C) to approximate sulfate concentration at cloud base (SO4B) can result in a degradation of correlation with Nd, along with a nearly two fold enhancement of S, mostly attributed to the inability of SO4C to capture the full spatio-temporal variability of SO4B. These findings point to several potential ways forward to account for the major influential factors practically by means of satellite observations and reanalysis, aiming at an optimal observational estimate of global radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.</p>

scholarly journals Quantifying cloud adjustments and the radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions in satellite observations of warm marine clouds

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 6225-6241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alyson Douglas ◽  
Tristan L'Ecuyer
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Local Environment ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Cloud Environment ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions and their resultant forcing remains one of the largest sources of uncertainty in future climate scenarios. The effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) is a combination of two different effects, namely how aerosols modify cloud brightness (RFaci, intrinsic) and how cloud extent reacts to aerosol (cloud adjustments CA; extrinsic). Using satellite observations of warm clouds from the NASA A-Train constellation from 2007 to 2010 along with MERRA-2 Reanalysis and aerosol from the SPRINTARS model, we evaluate the ERFaci in warm, marine clouds and its components, the RFaciwarm and CAwarm, while accounting for the liquid water path and local environment. We estimate the ERFaciwarm to be -0.32±0.16 Wm−2. The RFaciwarm dominates the ERFaciwarm contributing 80 % (-0.21±0.15 Wm−2), while the CAwarm enhances this cooling by 20 % (-0.05±0.03 Wm−2). Both the RFaciwarm and CAwarm vary in magnitude and sign regionally and can lead to opposite, negating effects under certain environmental conditions. Without considering the two terms separately and without constraining cloud–environment interactions, weak regional ERFaciwarm signals may be erroneously attributed to a damped susceptibility to aerosol.

scholarly journals Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol-cloud adjustments

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel T. McCoy ◽  
Paul Field ◽  
Hamish Gordon ◽  
Gregory S. Elsaesser ◽  
Daniel P. Grosvenor
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Causal Pathways ◽  
Model Adjustment ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Aerosol-cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol-cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path averaged across cloudy and clear regions (LWP, here, characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol-cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol, and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP, and MODIS are compared to simulations in the MetOffice Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence, and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol-cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30–35% overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Investigation of the adiabatic assumption for estimating cloud micro- and macrophysical properties from satellite and ground observations

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 933-952 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Merk ◽  
H. Deneke ◽  
B. Pospichal ◽  
P. Seifert
Keyword(s):  
Optical Depth ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Cloud Optical Depth ◽  
Cloud Radar ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Droplet Concentration ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Cloud properties from both ground-based as well as from geostationary passive satellite observations have been used previously for diagnosing aerosol–cloud interactions. In this investigation, a 2-year data set together with four selected case studies are analyzed with the aim of evaluating the consistency and limitations of current ground-based and satellite-retrieved cloud property data sets. The typically applied adiabatic cloud profile is modified using a sub-adiabatic factor to account for entrainment within the cloud. Based on the adiabatic factor obtained from the combination of ground-based cloud radar, ceilometer and microwave radiometer, we demonstrate that neither the assumption of a completely adiabatic cloud nor the assumption of a constant sub-adiabatic factor is fulfilled (mean adiabatic factor 0.63 ± 0.22). As cloud adiabaticity is required to estimate the cloud droplet number concentration but is not available from passive satellite observations, an independent method to estimate the adiabatic factor, and thus the influence of mixing, would be highly desirable for global-scale analyses. Considering the radiative effect of a cloud described by the sub-adiabatic model, we focus on cloud optical depth and its sensitivities. Ground-based estimates are here compared vs. cloud optical depth retrieved from the Meteosat SEVIRI satellite instrument resulting in a bias of −4 and a root mean square difference of 16. While a synergistic approach based on the combination of ceilometer, cloud radar and microwave radiometer enables an estimate of the cloud droplet concentration, it is highly sensitive to radar calibration and to assumptions about the moments of the droplet size distribution. Similarly, satellite-based estimates of cloud droplet concentration are uncertain. We conclude that neither the ground-based nor satellite-based cloud retrievals applied here allow a robust estimate of cloud droplet concentration, which complicates its use for the study of aerosol–cloud interactions.

scholarly journals Understanding aerosol–cloud interactions through modeling the development of orographic cumulus congestus during IPHEx

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 1413-1437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yajuan Duan ◽  
Markus D. Petters ◽  
Ana P. Barros
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Liquid Water Content ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Turbulent Dispersion ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Droplet Growth ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. A new cloud parcel model (CPM) including activation, condensation, collision–coalescence, and lateral entrainment processes is used to investigate aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) in cumulus development prior to rainfall onset. The CPM was applied with surface aerosol measurements to predict the vertical structure of cloud development at early stages, and the model results were evaluated against airborne observations of cloud microphysics and thermodynamic conditions collected during the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) in the inner region of the southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the model response to variations in key ACI physiochemical parameters and initial conditions. The CPM sensitivities mirror those found in parcel models without entrainment and collision–coalescence, except for the evolution of the droplet spectrum and liquid water content with height. Simulated cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs) exhibit high sensitivity to variations in the initial aerosol concentration at cloud base, but weak sensitivity to bulk aerosol hygroscopicity. The condensation coefficient ac plays a governing role in determining the evolution of CDNC, liquid water content (LWC), and cloud droplet spectra (CDS) in time and with height. Lower values of ac lead to higher CDNCs and broader CDS above cloud base, and higher maximum supersaturation near cloud base. Analysis of model simulations reveals that competitive interference among turbulent dispersion, activation, and droplet growth processes modulates spectral width and explains the emergence of bimodal CDS and CDNC heterogeneity in aircraft measurements from different cloud regions and at different heights. Parameterization of nonlinear interactions among entrainment, condensational growth, and collision–coalescence processes is therefore necessary to simulate the vertical structures of CDNCs and CDSs in convective clouds. Comparisons of model predictions with data suggest that the representation of lateral entrainment remains challenging due to the spatial heterogeneity of the convective boundary layer and the intricate 3-D circulations in mountainous regions.

scholarly journals The hemispheric contrast in cloud microphysical properties constrains aerosol forcing

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (32) ◽  
pp. 18998-19006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel L. McCoy ◽  
Daniel T. McCoy ◽  
Robert Wood ◽  
Leighton Regayre ◽  
Duncan Watson-Parris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Number Concentration ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Cloud Droplet Number Concentration ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

The change in planetary albedo due to aerosol−cloud interactions during the industrial era is the leading source of uncertainty in inferring Earth’s climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gases from the historical record. The variable that controls aerosol−cloud interactions in warm clouds is droplet number concentration. Global climate models demonstrate that the present-day hemispheric contrast in cloud droplet number concentration between the pristine Southern Hemisphere and the polluted Northern Hemisphere oceans can be used as a proxy for anthropogenically driven change in cloud droplet number concentration. Remotely sensed estimates constrain this change in droplet number concentration to be between 8 cm−3and 24 cm−3. By extension, the radiative forcing since 1850 from aerosol−cloud interactions is constrained to be −1.2 W⋅m−2to −0.6 W⋅m−2. The robustness of this constraint depends upon the assumption that pristine Southern Ocean droplet number concentration is a suitable proxy for preindustrial concentrations. Droplet number concentrations calculated from satellite data over the Southern Ocean are high in austral summer. Near Antarctica, they reach values typical of Northern Hemisphere polluted outflows. These concentrations are found to agree with several in situ datasets. In contrast, climate models show systematic underpredictions of cloud droplet number concentration across the Southern Ocean. Near Antarctica, where precipitation sinks of aerosol are small, the underestimation by climate models is particularly large. This motivates the need for detailed process studies of aerosol production and aerosol−cloud interactions in pristine environments. The hemispheric difference in satellite estimated cloud droplet number concentration implies preindustrial aerosol concentrations were higher than estimated by most models.

scholarly journals Deconvolution of boundary layer depth and aerosol constraints on cloud water path in subtropical stratocumulus decks

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 3609-3621
Author(s):  
Anna Possner ◽  
Ryan Eastman ◽  
Frida Bender ◽  
Franziska Glassmeier
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Process Modelling ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Marine Stratocumulus ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Relative Change

Abstract. The liquid water path (LWP) adjustment due to aerosol–cloud interactions in marine stratocumulus remains a considerable source of uncertainty for climate sensitivity estimates. An unequivocal attribution of LWP adjustments to changes in aerosol concentration from climatology remains difficult due to the considerable covariance between meteorological conditions alongside changes in aerosol concentrations. We utilise the susceptibility framework to quantify the potential change in LWP adjustment with boundary layer (BL) depth in subtropical marine stratocumulus. We show that the LWP susceptibility, i.e. the relative change in LWP scaled by the relative change in cloud droplet number concentration, in marine BLs triples in magnitude from −0.1 to −0.31 as the BL deepens from 300 to 1200 m and deeper. We further find deep BLs to be underrepresented in pollution tracks, process modelling, and in situ studies of aerosol–cloud interactions in marine stratocumulus. Susceptibility estimates based on these approaches are skewed towards shallow BLs of moderate LWP susceptibility. Therefore, extrapolating LWP susceptibility estimates from shallow BLs to the entire cloud climatology may underestimate the true LWP adjustment within subtropical stratocumulus and thus overestimate the effective aerosol radiative forcing in this region. Meanwhile, LWP susceptibility estimates in deep BLs remain poorly constrained. While susceptibility estimates in shallow BLs are found to be consistent with process modelling studies, they overestimate pollution track estimates.

scholarly journals Impact of solar radiation on aerosol-cloud interactions in thin stratocumulus clouds

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 23791-23833 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. Lee ◽  
J. E. Penner
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Marine Boundary Layer ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Surface Precipitation ◽  
Stratocumulus Clouds ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Aerosol Effects

Abstract. This study examines the role of solar radiation in the effect of aerosols on liquid-water path (LWP) in thin, marine stratocumulus clouds with LWP of ~50 g m−2 or less by performing four sets of simulations with different solar radiation. Each set is composed of a simulation with present-day (PD) aerosols and a simulation with preindustrial (PI) aerosols. As solar radiation increases, decoupling within the marine boundary layer (MBL) becomes stronger, leading to less condensation and less LWP and thus the absence of the surface precipitation. This enables the evaporation of rain to affect the cloud-base instability. As rain evaporation increases due to more conversion of cloud liquid to rain in the PI case, the cloud-base instability increases and thus updrafts increase which leads to larger LWP in the PI case than in the PD case. In the cases with no surface precipitation, when solar radiation decreases and thus decoupling becomes weaker, rain evaporation and cloud-base instability become larger, which increases the LWP more with PI aerosols than with PD aerosols. As solar radiation decreases further, condensation and, thus, the LWP increase, which leads to the presence of the surface precipitation. This stabilizes the entire MBL and thus prevents the interactions that cause the evaporation of rain to enhance the cloud-base instability. In cases with the surface precipitation, the in-cloud interactions among cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), supersaturation, and updrafts play an important role in the effect of aerosols on the LWP; these in-cloud interactions produce larger LWP with the PD aerosols than with the PI aerosols. In a case with lower solar radiation and with surface precipitation, weaker decoupling induces stronger in-cloud interactions, which results in larger increases in LWP with PD aerosols compared to PI aerosols than that in a case with higher solar radiation. The results of this study demonstrate that solar radiation can act as an important environmental factor by inducing a large variation in the LWP and by changing the sign of aerosol effects on the LWP of thin stratocumulus clouds. Hence, the effect of solar radiation on decoupling and thus on the feedbacks between microphysics and dynamics needs to be included in climate models for a better prediction of the effect of aerosols on clouds and thus climate.

scholarly journals Analysis of polarimetric satellite measurements suggests stronger cooling due to aerosol-cloud interactions

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Otto P. Hasekamp ◽  
Edward Gryspeerdt ◽  
Johannes Quaas
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Cloud Formation ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol emissions lead to an increase in the amount of cloud condensation nuclei and consequently an increase in cloud droplet number concentration and cloud albedo. The corresponding negative radiative forcing due to aerosol cloud interactions (RF$${}_{{\rm{aci}}}$$aci) is one of the most uncertain radiative forcing terms as reported in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here we show that previous observation-based studies underestimate aerosol-cloud interactions because they used measurements of aerosol optical properties that are not directly related to cloud formation and are hampered by measurement uncertainties. We have overcome this problem by the use of new polarimetric satellite retrievals of the relevant aerosol properties (aerosol number, size, shape). The resulting estimate of RF$${}_{{\rm{aci}}}$$aci = −1.14 Wm$${}^{{\rm{-2}}}$$-2 (range between −0.84 and −1.72 Wm$${}^{{\rm{-2}}}$$-2) is more than a factor 2 stronger than the IPCC estimate that includes also other aerosol induced changes in cloud properties.

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