Addressing the difficulties in quantifying the Twomey effect for marine warm clouds from multi-sensor satellite observations and reanalysis

Aerosol–cloud interaction is the most uncertain component of the overall anthropogenic forcing of the climate, in which the Twomey effect plays a fundamental role. Satellite-based estimates of the Twomey effect are especially challenging, mainly due to the difficulty in disentangling aerosol effects on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) from possible confounders. By combining multiple satellite observations and reanalysis, this study investigates the impacts of a) updraft, b) precipitation, c) retrieval errors, as well as (d) vertical co-location between aerosol and cloud, on the assessment of Nd-toaerosol sensitivity (S) in the context of marine warm (liquid) clouds. Our analysis suggests that S increases remarkably with both cloud base height and cloud geometric thickness (proxies for vertical velocity at cloud base), consistent with stronger aerosol-cloud interactions at larger updraft velocity. In turn, introducing the confounding effect of aerosol–precipitation interaction can artificially amplify S by an estimated 21 %, highlighting the necessity of removing precipitating clouds from analyses on the Twomey effect. It is noted that the retrieval biases in aerosol and cloud appear to underestimate S, in which cloud fraction acts as a key modulator, making it practically difficult to balance the accuracies of aerosol–cloud retrievals at aggregate scales (e.g., 1° × 1° grid). Moreover, we show that using column-integrated sulfate mass concentration (SO4C) to approximate sulfate concentration at cloud base (SO4B) can result in a degradation of correlation with Nd, along with a nearly twofold enhancement of S, mostly attributed to the inability of SO4C to capture the full spatio-temporal variability of SO4B. These findings point to several potential ways forward to account for the major influential factors practically by means of satellite observations and reanalysis, aiming at an optimal observational estimate of global radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

Addressing the difficulties in quantifying the Twomey effect for marine warm clouds from multi-sensor satellite observations and reanalysis

<p>Aerosol–cloud interaction is the most uncertain component of the overall anthropogenic forcing of the climate, inwhich the Twomey effect plays a fundamental role. Satellite-based estimates of the Twomey effect are especially challenging, mainly due to the difficulty in disentangling aerosol effects on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) from possible confounders. By combining multiple satellite observations and reanalysis, this study investigates the impacts of a) updraft, b) precipitation, c) retrieval errors, as well as (d) vertical co-location between aerosol and cloud, on the assessment of Nd-to-aerosol sensitivity (S) in the context of marine warm (liquid) clouds. Our analysis suggests that S increases remarkably with both cloud base height and cloud geometric thickness (proxies for vertical velocity at cloud base), consistent with stronger aerosol-cloud interactions at larger updraft velocity. In turn, introducing the confounding effect of aerosol–precipitation interaction can artificially amplify S by an estimated 21 %, highlighting the necessity of removing precipitating clouds from analyses on the Twomey effect. It is noted that the retrieval biases in aerosol and cloud appear to underestimate S, in which cloud fraction acts as a key modulator, making it practically difficult to balance the accuracies of aerosol–cloud retrievals at aggregate scales (e.g., 1◦ × 1◦ grid). Moreover, we show that using column-integrated sulfate mass concentration (SO4C) to approximate sulfate concentration at cloud base (SO4B) can result in a degradation of correlation with Nd, along with a nearly two fold enhancement of S, mostly attributed to the inability of SO4C to capture the full spatio-temporal variability of SO4B. These findings point to several potential ways forward to account for the major influential factors practically by means of satellite observations and reanalysis, aiming at an optimal observational estimate of global radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.</p>

The Phantom Dark Matter Halos of the Local Volume in the Context of Modified Newtonian Dynamics

We explore the predictions of Milgromian gravity (MOND) in the local universe by considering the distribution of the “phantom” dark matter (PDM) that would source the MOND gravitational field in Newtonian gravity, allowing an easy comparison with the dark matter framework. For this, we specifically deal with the quasi-linear version of MOND (QUMOND). We compute the “stellar-to-(phantom)halo mass relation” (SHMR), a monotonically increasing power law resembling the SHMR observationally deduced from spiral galaxy rotation curves in the Newtonian context. We show that the gas-to-(phantom)halo mass relation is flat. We generate a map of the Local Volume in QUMOND, highlighting the important influence of distant galaxy clusters, in particular Virgo. This allows us to explore the scatter of the SHMR and the average density of PDM around galaxies in the Local Volume, ΩPDM ≈ 0.1, below the average cold dark matter density in a ΛCDM universe. We provide a model of the Milky Way in its external field in the MOND context, which we compare to an observational estimate of the escape velocity curve. Finally, we highlight the peculiar features related to the external field effect in the form of negative PDM density zones in the outskirts of each galaxy, and test a new analytic formula for computing galaxy rotation curves in the presence of an external field in QUMOND. While we show that the negative PDM density zones would be difficult to detect dynamically, we quantify the weak-lensing signal they could produce for lenses at z ∼ 0.3.

Population synthesis of accreting white dwarfs: Rates and evolutionary pathways of H and He novae

Novae are some of the most commonly detected optical transients and have the potential to provide valuable information about binary evolution. Binary population synthesis codes have emerged as the most effective tool for modelling populations of binary systems, but such codes have traditionally employed greatly simplified nova physics, precluding detailed study. In this work, we implement a model treating H and He novae as individual events into the binary population synthesis code binary_c. This treatment of novae represents a significant improvement on the ‘averaging’ treatment currently employed in modern population synthesis codes. We discuss the evolutionary pathways leading to these phenomena and present nova event rates and distributions of several important physical parameters. Most novae are produced on massive white dwarfs, with approximately 70 and 55 per cent of nova events occurring on O/Ne white dwarfs for H and He novae respectively. Only 15 per cent of H-nova systems undergo a common-envelope phase, but these systems are responsible for the majority of H nova events. All He-accreting He-nova systems are considered post-common-envelope systems, and almost all will merge with their donor star in a gravitational-wave driven inspiral. We estimate the current annual rate of novae in M31 (Andromeda) to be approximately 41 ± 4 for H novae, underpredicting the current observational estimate of $65^{+15}_{-16}$, and 0.14 ± 0.015 for He novae. When varying common-envelope parameters, the H nova rate varies between 20 and 80 events per year.

Moisture fluxes in the tropics dominated by deep convection up to near tropical tropopause levels

<p>The role played by tropical storms in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), the transitional layer regulating the flux into the stratosphere of trace gases affecting radiation and the ozone layer, has been a long-standing open question. Progress has been slow because of computational limitations and challenging conditions for measurements and most numerical studies have used simulations over limited domains whose results must be upscaled to the tropical surface to infer global impacts. We compute the first global observational estimate of the convective ice flux at near tropical tropopause levels by using spaceborne lidar measurements from CALIOP. The calculation uses a method to convert from lidar extinction to sedimenting ice flux and uses error propagation to provide margins of uncertainty. We show that, at any given level in the TTL, the sedimenting ice flux exceeds the inflow of vapor computed from ERA5 reanalysis, revealing additional ice transport and allowing to deduce the advective ice flux as a function of altitude. The contribution to this flux of large-scale motions (resolved by ERA5) is computed and the residual is hypothesized to represent the flux of ice on the convective scale. Results show without ambiguity that the upward ice flux in deep convection dominates moisture transport up to close to the level of the cold point tropopause.</p>

Improved Estimates of Changes in Upper Ocean Salinity and the Hydrological Cycle

Ocean salinity records the hydrological cycle and its changes, but data scarcity and the large changes in sampling make the reconstructions of long-term salinity changes challenging. Here, we present a new observational estimate of changes in ocean salinity since 1960 from the surface to 2000 m. We overcome some of the inconsistencies present in existing salinity reconstructions by using an interpolation technique that uses information on the spatiotemporal covariability of salinity taken from model simulations. The interpolation technique is comprehensively evaluated using recent Argo-dominated observations through subsample tests. The new product strengthens previous findings that ocean surface and subsurface salinity contrasts have increased (i.e., the existing salinity pattern has amplified). We quantify this contrast by assessing the difference between the salinity in regions of high and low salinity averaged over the top 2000 m, a metric we refer to as SC2000. The increase in SC2000 is highly distinguishable from the sampling error and less affected by interannual variability and sampling error than if this metric was computed just for the surface. SC2000 increased by 1.9% ± 0.6% from 1960 to 1990 and by 3.3% ± 0.4% from 1991 to 2017 (5.2% ± 0.4% for 1960–2017), indicating an acceleration of the pattern amplification in recent decades. Combining this estimate with model simulations, we show that the change in SC2000 since 1960 emerges clearly as an anthropogenic signal from the natural variability. Based on the salinity-contrast metrics and model simulations, we find a water cycle amplification of 2.6% ± 4.4% K−1 since 1960, with the larger error than salinity metric mainly being due to model uncertainty.

The eye of Gaia on globular clusters structure: tidal tails

ABSTRACT I analyse the projected density distribution of member stars over a wide area surrounding 18 Galactic globular clusters using the photometric and astrometric information provided by the second data release of the Gaia mission. A 5D mixture modelling technique has been employed to optimally isolate the signal of the cluster stellar population from the contamination of the Galactic field, taking advantage of its different distribution in the space formed by colours, magnitudes, parallaxes, and proper motions. In 7 clusters I detect collimated overdensities at a >3σ level above the background density extending well beyond the cluster tidal radius, consistent with the distortion expected as a result of the tidal interaction with the Milky Way potential. In five of these clusters (NGC 288, NGC 2298, NGC 5139, NGC 6341, and NGC 7099) spectacular tidal tails extend up to the border of the analysed field of view at 5 deg from the centre. At large distances from the cluster centre, the orientation of the detected overdensities appears to be systematically aligned with the cluster orbital path, in agreement with the predictions of N-body simulations. The fraction of stars contained in the tidal tails of these clusters is also used to determine the first observational estimate of their present-day destruction rates.

Spatial Radiative Feedbacks from Internal Variability Using Multiple Regression

The sensitivity of the climate to CO2 forcing depends on spatially varying radiative feedbacks that act both locally and nonlocally. We assess whether a method employing multiple regression can be used to estimate local and nonlocal radiative feedbacks from internal variability. We test this method on millennial-length simulations performed with six coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Given the spatial pattern of warming, the method does quite well at recreating the top-of-atmosphere flux response for most regions of Earth, except over the Southern Ocean where it consistently overestimates the change, leading to an overestimate of the sensitivity. For five of the six models, the method finds that local feedbacks are positive due to cloud processes, balanced by negative nonlocal shortwave cloud feedbacks associated with regions of tropical convection. For four of these models, the magnitudes of both are comparable to the Planck feedback, so that changes in the ratio between them could lead to large changes in climate sensitivity. The positive local feedback explains why observational studies that estimate spatial feedbacks using only local regressions predict an unstable climate. The method implies that sensitivity in these AOGCMs increases over time due to a reduction in the share of warming occurring in tropical convecting regions and the resulting weakening of associated shortwave cloud and longwave clear-sky feedbacks. Our results provide a step toward an observational estimate of time-varying climate sensitivity by demonstrating that many aspects of spatial feedbacks appear to be the same between internal variability and the forced response.

Observational estimate of the partial covering probability of quasar emission regions by distant H2 absorption clouds

ABSTRACT We have searched high spectral resolution spectra of quasars known to exhibit high redshift (z > 1.7) intervening H2-bearing damped Lyman-α (DLA) systems for partial coverage of the quasar emission by intervening H2 clouds. Partial coverage manifests itself by the presence of non-zero residual flux in the core of saturated H2 absorption lines. The residual flux can be observed either only at the bottom of absorption lines redshifted on top of quasar emission lines, in which case part of the broad line region (BLR) is not covered, or in all absorption lines, in case some continuum source is not covered. Among 35 H2 absorption clouds in 14 quasar spectra obtained with the VLT-UVES or Keck-HIRES spectrographs, we detect partial coverage of the BLR for 13 clouds. This result suggests that the probability of partial coverage of the QSO BLR by a distant H2 absorption cloud is about 40 per cent. For four systems towards Q 0013−0029, Q 0405−4418, Q 0812+3208, and J 2100−0641, partial coverage is detected for the first time. We determine the theoretical probability of partial coverage of the BLR by a distant H2 cloud as a function of the ratio between the cloud and the BLR sizes. Using this model, we obtain an estimate of the characteristic BLR radius of $50^{+19}_{-23}\,\rm{light \,days}$. This is similar to the estimate of the BLR size obtained by reverberation-mapping analysis $({\sim}100\,\rm{light\, days})$.

Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005

Greenhouse-gas emissions have created a planetary energy imbalance that is primarily manifested by increasing ocean heat content (OHC). Updated observational estimates of full-depth OHC change since 1970 are presented that account for recent advancements in reducing observation errors and biases. The full-depth OHC has increased by 0.74 [0.68, 0.80] × 1022 J yr−1 (0.46 Wm−2) and 1.22 [1.16–1.29] × 1022 J yr−1 (0.75 Wm−2) for 1970–2005 and 1992–2005, respectively, with a 5 to 95 % confidence interval of the median. The CMIP5 models show large spread in OHC changes, suggesting that some models are not state-of-the-art and require further improvements. However, the ensemble median has excellent agreement with our observational estimate: 0.68 [0.54–0.82] × 1022 J yr−1 (0.42 Wm−2) from 1970 to 2005 and 1.25 [1.10–1.41] × 1022 J yr−1 (0.77 Wm−2) from 1992 to 2005. These results increase confidence in both the observational and model estimates to quantify and study changes in Earth's energy imbalance over the historical period. We suggest that OHC be a fundamental metric for climate model validation and evaluation, especially for forced changes (decadal timescales).