scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere with special focus on Europe and the Arctic

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 3337-3367 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Hedegaard ◽  
J. Brandt ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
L. M. Frohn ◽  
C. Geels ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Oh Radicals ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Range Transport

Abstract. The response of a selected number of chemical species is inspected with respect to climate change. The coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM4-OPYC3 is providing meteorological fields for the Chemical long-range Transport Model DEHM. Three selected decades (1990s, 2040s and 2090s) are inspected. The 1990s are used as a reference and validation period. In this decade an evaluation of the output from the DEHM model with ECHAM4-OPYC3 meteorology input data is carried out. The model results are tested against similar model simulations with MM5 meteorology and against observations from the EMEP monitoring sites in Europe. The test results from the validation period show that the overall statistics (e.g. mean values and standard deviations) are similar for the two simulations. However, as one would expect the model setup with climate input data fails to predict correctly the timing of the variability in the observations. The overall performance of the ECHAM4-OPYC3 setup as meteorological input to the DEHM model is shown to be acceptable according to the applied ranking method. It is concluded that running a chemical long-range transport model on data from a "free run" climate model is scientifically sound. From the model runs of the three decades, it is found that the overall trend detected in the evolution of the chemical species, is the same between the 1990 decade and the 2040 decade and between the 2040 decade and the 2090 decade, respectively. The dominating impacts from climate change on a large number of the chemical species are related to the predicted temperature increase. Throughout the 21th century the ECHAM4-OPYC3 projects a global mean temperature increase of 3 K with local maxima up to 11 K in the Arctic winter based on the IPCC A2 emission scenario. As a consequence of this temperature increase, the temperature dependent biogenic emission of isoprene is predicted to increase significantly over land by the DEHM model. This leads to an increase in the O3 production and together with an increase in water vapor to an increase in the number of free OH radicals. Furthermore this increase in the number of OH radicals contributes to a significant change in the typical life time of many species, since OH are participating in a large number of chemical reactions. It is e.g. found that more SO42− will be present in the future over the already polluted areas and this increase can be explained by an enhanced conversion of SO2 to SO42−.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere with special focus on Europe and the Arctic

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1757-1831 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Hedegaard ◽  
J. Brandt ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
L. M. Frohn ◽  
C. Geels ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Oh Radicals ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Range Transport

Abstract. The response of a selected number of chemical species is inspected with respect to climate change. The coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM4-OPYC3 is providing meteorological fields for the Chemical long-range Transport Model DEHM. Three selected decades (1990s, 2040s and 2090s) are inspected. The 1990s are used as a reference and validation period. In this decade an evaluation of the output from the DEHM model with ECHAM4-OPYC3 meteorology input data is carried out. The model results are tested against similar model simulations with MM5 meteorology and against observations from the EMEP monitoring sites in Europe. The test results from the validation period show that the overall statistics (e.g. mean values and standard deviations) are similar for the two simulations. However, as one would expect the model setup with climate input data fails to predict correctly the timing of the variability in the observations. The overall performance of the ECHAM4-OPYC3 setup as meteorological input to the DEHM model is shown to be acceptable according to the applied ranking method. It is concluded that running a chemical long-range transport model on data from a "free run" climate model is scientifically sound. From the model runs of the three decades, it is found that the overall trend detected in the evolution of the chemical species, is the same between the 1990 decade and the 2040 decade and between the 2040 decade and the 2090 decade, respectively. The dominating impacts from climate change on a large number of the chemical species are related to the predicted temperature increase. Throughout the 21th century the ECHAM4-OPYC3 projects a global mean temperature increase of 3 K with local maxima up to 11 K in the Arctic winter based on the IPCC A2 emission scenario. As a consequence of this temperature increase, the temperature dependent biogenic emission of isoprene is predicted to increase significantly over land by the DEHM model. This leads to an increase in the O3 production and together with an increase in water vapor to an increase in the number of free OH radicals. Furthermore this increase in the number of OH radicals contributes to a significant change in the typical life time of many species, since OH are participating in a large number of chemical reactions. It is e.g. found that more SO42− will be present in the future over the already polluted areas and this increase can be explained by an enhanced conversion of SO2 to SO42− .

scholarly journals Long range transport of mercury to the Arctic and across Canada

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 4673-4717 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Durnford ◽  
A. Dastoor ◽  
D. Figueras-Nieto ◽  
A. Ryjkov
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Atmospheric Mercury ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Range Transport

Abstract. This study is the most extensive study to date on the transport of mercury to the Arctic. Moreover, it is the first such study to use a fully-coupled, online chemical transport model, Environment Canada's Global/Regional Atmospheric Heavy Metals model (GRAHM), where the meteorology and mercury processes are fully integrated. It is also the only study to date on the transport of mercury across Canada. We determined source attribution from Asia, North America, Russia and Europe at six arctic verification stations, as well as three subarctic and eight midlatitude Canadian stations. We have found that Asia, despite having transport efficiencies that were almost always lower than those of North America and often lower than those of Russia, was the dominant source of gaseous atmospheric mercury at all verification stations: it contributed the most mercury (29–37% at all stations, seasons and levels considered), its concentrations frequently explained nearly 100% of the variability in the concentrations produced by the simulation performed with full global emissions, particularly in the absence of local sources, and it generated the most long range transport (LRT) events, causing 43%, 67% and 75% of the events at the arctic, subarctic and midlatitude stations, respectively. For the Arctic, Russian transport efficiencies tended to be the strongest, as expected, while European and Asian efficiencies were lower and higher, respectively, than those found in the literature. This disagreement is likely produced by mercury's long lifetime relative to that of other pollutants. The accepted springtime preference for the trans-Pacific transport of Asian pollution was evident only in the midlatitude group of stations, being masked in the arctic and subarctic groups by the occurrence of atmospheric mercury depletion events. Some neighbouring arctic stations recorded dissimilar numbers of LRT events; despite their proximity, the behaviour of mercury at these stations was governed by different dynamics and transport pathways. The column burden of GEM in the lowest 5 km of the Northern Hemisphere was largest in summer from Asia, North America and Russia, but in winter from Europe. In the vertical, transport of mercury from all source regions occurred principally in the mid-troposphere.

scholarly journals Attribution of future US ozone pollution to regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport, and model deficiency

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 26231-26256 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. He ◽  
X.-Z. Liang ◽  
H. Lei ◽  
D. J. Wuebbles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
Range Transport ◽  
Regional Emissions ◽  
Model Deficiency

Abstract. A regional chemical transport model (CTM) is used to quantify the relative contributions of future US ozone pollution from regional emissions, climate change, long-range transport (LRT) of pollutants, and model deficiency. After incorporating dynamic lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from a global CTM, the representation of present-day US ozone pollution is notably improved. This nested system projects substantial surface ozone trends for 2050's: 6–10 ppbv decreases under the "clean" A1B scenario and ~15 ppbv increases under the "dirty" A1Fi scenario. Among the total trends, regional emissions changes dominate, contributing negative 20–50% in A1B and positive 20–40% in A1Fi, while LRT effects through chemical LBCs and climate changes account for respectively 15–50% and 10–30% in both scenarios. The projection uncertainty due to model biases is region dependent, ranging from −10 to 50%. It is shown that model biases of present-day simulations can propagate into future projections systematically but nonlinearly, and the accurate specification of LBCs is essential for US ozone projections.

scholarly journals Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia H. Whaley ◽  
Rashed Mahmood ◽  
Knut von Salzen ◽  
Barbara Winter ◽  
Sabine Eckhardt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Chemical Species ◽  
Atmospheric Pollutants ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Assessment Programme ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Range Transport ◽  
Arctic Atmosphere

Abstract. The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment.

scholarly journals Long range transport of mercury to the Arctic and across Canada

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (13) ◽  
pp. 6063-6086 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Durnford ◽  
A. Dastoor ◽  
D. Figueras-Nieto ◽  
A. Ryjkov
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Atmospheric Mercury ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Range Transport

Abstract. This study is the most extensive study to date on the transport of mercury to the Arctic. Moreover, it is the first such study to use a fully-coupled, online chemical transport model, Environment Canada's Global/Regional Atmospheric Heavy Metals model (GRAHM), where the meteorology and mercury processes are fully integrated. It is also the only study to date on the transport of mercury across Canada. We estimated source attribution from Asia, North America, Russia and Europe at six arctic verification stations, as well as three subarctic and eight midlatitude Canadian stations. We have found that Asia, despite having transport efficiencies that were almost always lower than those of North America and often lower than those of Russia, was the dominant source of gaseous atmospheric mercury at all verification stations: it contributed the most mercury (29–37% at all stations, seasons and levels considered), its concentrations frequently explained nearly 100% of the variability in the concentrations produced by the simulation performed with full global emissions, particularly in the absence of local sources, and it generated the most long range transport (LRT) events, causing 43%, 67% and 75% of the events at the arctic, subarctic and midlatitude stations, respectively. For the Arctic, Russian transport efficiencies tended to be the strongest, as expected, while European and Asian efficiencies were lower and higher, respectively, than those found in the literature. This disagreement is likely produced by mercury's long lifetime relative to that of other pollutants. The accepted springtime preference for the trans-Pacific transport of Asian pollution was evident only in the midlatitude group of stations, being masked in the arctic and subarctic groups by the occurrence of atmospheric mercury depletion events. Some neighbouring arctic stations recorded dissimilar numbers of LRT events; despite their proximity, the behaviour of mercury at these stations was governed by different dynamics and transport pathways. The column burden of GEM in the lowest 5 km of the Northern Hemisphere was largest in summer from Asia, North America and Russia, but in winter from Europe. In the vertical, transport of mercury from all source regions occurred principally in the mid-troposphere.

scholarly journals New insights into aerosol and climate in the Arctic

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan P. D. Abbatt ◽  
W. Richard Leaitch ◽  
Amir A. Aliabadi ◽  
Alan K. Bertram ◽  
Jean-Pierre Blanchet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Surface Microlayer ◽  
Biogeochemical Models ◽  
Sea Surface Microlayer ◽  
Range Transport ◽  
Warming World

Abstract. Motivated by the need to predict how the Arctic atmosphere will change in a warming world, this article summarizes recent advances made by the research consortium NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols: Addressing Key Uncertainties in Remote Canadian Environments) that contribute to our fundamental understanding of Arctic aerosol particles as they relate to climate forcing. The overall goal of NETCARE research has been to use an interdisciplinary approach encompassing extensive field observations and a range of chemical transport, earth system, and biogeochemical models. Several major findings and advances have emerged from NETCARE since its formation in 2013 . (1) Unexpectedly high summertime dimethyl sulfide (DMS) levels were identified in ocean water and the overlying atmosphere in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Furthermore, melt ponds, which are widely prevalent, were identified as an important DMS source. (2) Evidence was found of widespread particle nucleation and growth in the marine boundary layer in the CAA in the summertime. DMS-oxidation-driven nucleation is facilitated by the presence of atmospheric ammonia arising from sea bird colony emissions, and potentially also from coastal regions, tundra, and biomass burning. Via accumulation of secondary organic material (SOA), a significant fraction of the new particles grow to sizes that are active in cloud droplet formation. Although the gaseous precursors to Arctic marine SOA remain poorly defined, the measured levels of common continental SOA precursors (isoprene and monoterpenes) were low, whereas elevated mixing ratios of oxygenated volatile organic compounds were inferred to arise via processes involving the sea surface microlayer. (3) The variability in the vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) under both springtime Arctic haze and more pristine summertime aerosol conditions was observed. Measured particle size distributions and mixing states were used to constrain, for the first time, calculations of aerosol–climate interactions under Arctic conditions. Aircraft- and ground-based measurements were used to better establish the BC source regions that supply the Arctic via long-range transport mechanisms. (4) Measurements of ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic indicate that a major source of these particles is mineral dust, likely derived from local sources in the summer and long-range transport in the spring. In addition, INPs are abundant in the sea surface microlayer in the Arctic, and possibly play a role in ice nucleation in the atmosphere when mineral dust concentrations are low. (5) Amongst multiple aerosol components, BC was observed to have the smallest effective deposition velocities to high Arctic snow.

Dirty sea ice drives higher Mn concentrations in the Canada Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Birgit Rogalla ◽  
Susan E. Allen ◽  
Manuel Colombo ◽  
Paul G. Myers ◽  
Kristin J. Orians
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Sediment Resuspension ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Canada Basin ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Basin Surface ◽  
Range Transport

<p>The rapidly changing conditions of the Arctic sea ice system have cascading impacts on the biogeochemical cycles of the ocean. Sea ice transports sediments, nutrients, trace metals, pollutants, and gases from the extensive continental shelves into the more isolated central basins. However, it is difficult to assess the net contribution of this supply mechanism on nutrients in the surface ocean. In this study, we used Manganese (Mn), a micronutrient and tracer which can integrate source fluctuations in space and time, to understand the net impact of the long range transport of sea ice for Mn.</p><p>We developed a three-dimensional dissolved Mn model within a subdomain of the 1/12 degree Arctic and Northern Hemispheric Atlantic (ANHA12) configuration of NEMO centred on the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and evaluated this model with in situ observations from the 2015 Canadian GEOTRACES cruises. The Mn model incorporates parameterizations for the contributions from river discharge, sediment resuspension, atmospheric deposition of aerosols directly to the ocean and via melt from sea ice, release of sediment from sea ice, and reversible scavenging, while the NEMO-TOP engine takes care of the advection and diffusion of the tracers. </p><p>Simulations with this model from 2002 to 2019 indicate that the majority of external Mn contributed annually to the Canada Basin surface is released by sediment from sea ice, much of which originates from the Siberian shelves. Reduced sea ice longevity in the Siberian shelf regions has been postulated to result in the disruption of the long range transport of sea ice by the transpolar drift. This reduced sea ice supply has the potential to decrease the Canada Basin Mn surface maximum and downstream Mn supply, with implications for other nutrients (such as Fe) contained in ice-rafted sediments as well. These results demonstrate some of the many changes to the biogeochemical supply mechanisms expected in the near-future in the Arctic Ocean and the subpolar seas.</p>

scholarly journals Overview paper: New insights into aerosol and climate in the Arctic

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 2527-2560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan P. D. Abbatt ◽  
W. Richard Leaitch ◽  
Amir A. Aliabadi ◽  
Allan K. Bertram ◽  
Jean-Pierre Blanchet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Surface Microlayer ◽  
Biogeochemical Models ◽  
Sea Surface Microlayer ◽  
Range Transport ◽  
Warming World

Abstract. Motivated by the need to predict how the Arctic atmosphere will change in a warming world, this article summarizes recent advances made by the research consortium NETCARE (Network on Climate and Aerosols: Addressing Key Uncertainties in Remote Canadian Environments) that contribute to our fundamental understanding of Arctic aerosol particles as they relate to climate forcing. The overall goal of NETCARE research has been to use an interdisciplinary approach encompassing extensive field observations and a range of chemical transport, earth system, and biogeochemical models. Several major findings and advances have emerged from NETCARE since its formation in 2013. (1) Unexpectedly high summertime dimethyl sulfide (DMS) levels were identified in ocean water (up to 75 nM) and the overlying atmosphere (up to 1 ppbv) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Furthermore, melt ponds, which are widely prevalent, were identified as an important DMS source (with DMS concentrations of up to 6 nM and a potential contribution to atmospheric DMS of 20 % in the study area). (2) Evidence of widespread particle nucleation and growth in the marine boundary layer was found in the CAA in the summertime, with these events observed on 41 % of days in a 2016 cruise. As well, at Alert, Nunavut, particles that are newly formed and grown under conditions of minimal anthropogenic influence during the months of July and August are estimated to contribute 20 % to 80 % of the 30–50 nm particle number density. DMS-oxidation-driven nucleation is facilitated by the presence of atmospheric ammonia arising from seabird-colony emissions, and potentially also from coastal regions, tundra, and biomass burning. Via accumulation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), a significant fraction of the new particles grow to sizes that are active in cloud droplet formation. Although the gaseous precursors to Arctic marine SOA remain poorly defined, the measured levels of common continental SOA precursors (isoprene and monoterpenes) were low, whereas elevated mixing ratios of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) were inferred to arise via processes involving the sea surface microlayer. (3) The variability in the vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) under both springtime Arctic haze and more pristine summertime aerosol conditions was observed. Measured particle size distributions and mixing states were used to constrain, for the first time, calculations of aerosol–climate interactions under Arctic conditions. Aircraft- and ground-based measurements were used to better establish the BC source regions that supply the Arctic via long-range transport mechanisms, with evidence for a dominant springtime contribution from eastern and southern Asia to the middle troposphere, and a major contribution from northern Asia to the surface. (4) Measurements of ice nucleating particles (INPs) in the Arctic indicate that a major source of these particles is mineral dust, likely derived from local sources in the summer and long-range transport in the spring. In addition, INPs are abundant in the sea surface microlayer in the Arctic, and possibly play a role in ice nucleation in the atmosphere when mineral dust concentrations are low. (5) Amongst multiple aerosol components, BC was observed to have the smallest effective deposition velocities to high Arctic snow (0.03 cm s−1).

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