scholarly journals Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis datasets

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 13315-13346 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Fujiwara ◽  
T. Hibino ◽  
S. K. Mehta ◽  
L. Gray ◽  
D. Mitchell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Mount Pinatubo ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
El Chichon

Abstract. Global temperature response to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 is investigated using nine reanalysis datasets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR). Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis datasets) and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis datasets), by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis datasets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for one-year average) in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K) in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. The response to three other smaller-scale eruptions in the 1960s and 1970s is also investigated. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis datasets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis datasets.

scholarly journals Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (23) ◽  
pp. 13507-13518 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Fujiwara ◽  
T. Hibino ◽  
S. K. Mehta ◽  
L. Gray ◽  
D. Mitchell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mount Pinatubo ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption

Abstract. The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR). Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets) and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets), by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average) in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K) in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection, as well as to link studies using only a single reanalysis data set to other studies using a different reanalysis data set.

scholarly journals Effect of volcanic aerosol on stratospheric NO<sub>2</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O<sub>5</sub> from 2002–2014 as measured by Odin-OSIRIS and Envisat-MIPAS

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristen Adams ◽  
Adam E. Bourassa ◽  
Chris A. McLinden ◽  
Chris E. Sioris ◽  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infrared Imaging ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
El Chichon

Abstract. Following the large volcanic eruptions of Pinatubo in 1991 and El Chichón in 1982, decreases in stratospheric NO2 associated with enhanced aerosol were observed. The Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (OSIRIS) likewise measured widespread enhancements of stratospheric aerosol following seven volcanic eruptions between 2002 and 2014, although the magnitudes of these eruptions were all much smaller than the Pinatubo and El Chichón eruptions. In order to isolate and quantify the relationship between volcanic aerosol and NO2, NO2 anomalies were calculated using measurements from OSIRIS and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). In the tropics, variability due to the quasi-biennial oscillation was subtracted from the timeseries. OSIRIS profile measurements indicate that the strongest relationships between NO2 and volcanic aerosol extinction were for the layer ~ 3–7 km above the tropopause, where OSIRIS stratospheric NO2 partial columns for ~ 3–7 km above the tropopause were found to be smaller than baseline levels during these aerosol enhancements by up to ~ 60 % with typical Pearson correlation coefficients of R ~ −0.7. MIPAS also observed decreases in NO2 partial columns during periods of affected by volcanic aerosol, with percent differences of up to ~ 25 %. An even stronger relationship was observed between OSIRIS aerosol optical depth and MIPAS N2O5 partial columns, with R ~ −0.9, although no link with MIPAS HNO3 was observed. The variation of OSIRIS NO2 with increasing aerosol was found to be quantitatively consistent with simulations from a photochemical box model in terms of both magnitude and degree of non-linearity.

scholarly journals Surface temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masatomo Fujiwara ◽  
Patrick Martineau ◽  
Jonathon S. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Hemispheric Differences ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Cooling Period ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
El Chichon

Abstract. The global response of air temperature at 2 metre above the surface to the eruptions of Mount Agung in March 1963, El Chichón in April 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 is investigated using 11 global atmospheric reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, JRA-25, MERRA-2, MERRA, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, CFSR, NCEP-NCAR R-1, 20CR version 2c, ERA-20C, and CERA-20C). Multiple linear regression (MLR) is applied to the monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1980–2010 (for 10 reanalyses) and 1958–2001 (for six reanalyses), by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), solar cycle, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, and Arctic SST variations. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to these climatic indices to obtain a set of orthogonal indices to be used for the MLR. The residuals of the MLR are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately. First, latitudinally averaged time series of the residuals are investigated and compared with the results from previous studies. Then, the geographical distribution of the response during the peak cooling period after each eruption is investigated. In general, different reanalyses show similar geographical patterns of the response, but with the largest differences in the polar regions. The Pinatubo response shows largest average cooling in the 60° N–60° S region among the three eruptions, with a peak cooling of 0.10–0.15 K. The El Chichón response shows slightly larger cooling in the NH than in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), while the Agung response shows larger cooling in the SH. These hemispheric differences are consistent with the distribution of stratospheric aerosol optical depth after these eruptions; however, the peak cooling after these two eruptions is comparable in magnitude to unexplained cooling events in other periods without volcanic influence. Other methods in which the MLR model is used with different sets of indices are also tested, and it is found that careful treatment of tropical SST variability is necessary to evaluate the surface response to volcanic eruptions in observations and reanalyses.

scholarly journals Surface temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 345-374
Author(s):  
Masatomo Fujiwara ◽  
Patrick Martineau ◽  
Jonathon S. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Hemispheric Differences ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Cooling Period ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
El Chichon

Abstract. The global response of air temperature at 2 m above the surface to the eruptions of Mount Agung in March 1963, El Chichón in April 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 is investigated using 11 global atmospheric reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, JRA-25, MERRA-2, MERRA, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, CFSR, NCEP-NCAR R-1, 20CR version 2c, ERA-20C, and CERA-20C). Multiple linear regression (MLR) is applied to the monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods – 1980–2010 (for 10 reanalyses) and 1958–2001 (for 6 reanalyses) – by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar cycle, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, and Arctic SST variations. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to these climatic indices to obtain a set of orthogonal indices to be used for the MLR. The residuals of the MLR are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately. First, area-averaged time series of the residuals are investigated and compared with the results from previous studies. Then, the geographical distribution of the response during the peak cooling period after each eruption is investigated. In general, different reanalyses show similar geographical patterns of the response, but with the largest differences in the polar regions. The Pinatubo response shows the largest average cooling in the 60∘ N–60∘ S region among the three eruptions, with a peak cooling of 0.10–0.15 K. The El Chichón response shows slightly larger cooling in the NH than in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), while the Agung response shows larger cooling in the SH. These hemispheric differences are consistent with the distribution of stratospheric aerosol optical depth after these eruptions; however, the peak cooling after these two eruptions is comparable in magnitude to unexplained cooling events in other periods without volcanic influence. Other methods in which the MLR model is used with different sets of indices are also tested, and it is found that careful treatment of tropical SST variability is necessary to evaluate the surface response to volcanic eruptions in observations and reanalyses.

scholarly journals Effect of volcanic aerosol on stratospheric NO<sub>2</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O<sub>5</sub> from 2002–2014 as measured by Odin-OSIRIS and Envisat-MIPAS

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
pp. 8063-8080 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristen Adams ◽  
Adam E. Bourassa ◽  
Chris A. McLinden ◽  
Chris E. Sioris ◽  
Thomas von Clarmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infrared Imaging ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Volcanic Aerosol ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
El Chichon

Abstract. Following the large volcanic eruptions of Pinatubo in 1991 and El Chichón in 1982, decreases in stratospheric NO2 associated with enhanced aerosol were observed. The Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (OSIRIS) measured the widespread enhancements of stratospheric aerosol following seven volcanic eruptions between 2002 and 2014, although the magnitudes of these eruptions were all much smaller than the Pinatubo and El Chichón eruptions. In order to isolate and quantify the relationship between volcanic aerosol and NO2, NO2 anomalies were calculated using measurements from OSIRIS and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). In the tropics, variability due to the quasi-biennial oscillation was subtracted from the time series. OSIRIS profile measurements indicate that the strongest anticorrelations between NO2 and volcanic aerosol extinction were for the 5 km layer starting  ∼  3 km above the climatological mean tropopause at the given latitude. OSIRIS stratospheric NO2 partial columns in this layer were found to be smaller than background NO2 levels during these aerosol enhancements by up to  ∼  60 % with typical Pearson correlation coefficients of R ∼ −0. 7. MIPAS also observed decreases in NO2 partial columns during periods affected by volcanic aerosol, with percent differences of up to  ∼  25 % relative to background levels. An even stronger anticorrelation was observed between OSIRIS aerosol optical depth and MIPAS N2O5 partial columns, with R ∼ −0. 9, although no link with MIPAS HNO3 was observed. The variation in OSIRIS NO2 with increasing aerosol was found to be consistent with simulations from a photochemical box model within the estimated model uncertainty.

Revisiting the Krakatau 1883 Volcanic Aerosol Dispersal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Castro ◽  
Tushar Mittal ◽  
Stephen Self
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Volcanic Plume ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;The 1883 Krakatau eruption is one of the most well-known historical volcanic eruptions due to its significant global climate impact as well as first recorded observations of various aerosol associated optical and physical phenomena. Although much work has been done on the former by comparison of global climate model predictions/ simulations with instrumental and proxy climate records, the latter has surprisingly not been studied in similar detail. In particular, there is a wealth of observations of vivid red sunsets, blue suns, and other similar features, that can be used to analyze the spatio-temporal dispersal of volcanic aerosols in summer to winter 1883. Thus, aerosol cloud dispersal after the Krakatau eruption can be estimated, bolstered by aerosol cloud behavior as monitored by satellite-based instrument observations after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. This is one of a handful of large historic eruptions where this analysis can be done (using non-climate proxy methods). In this study, we model particle trajectories of the Krakatau eruption cloud using the Hysplit trajectory model and compare our results with our compiled observational dataset (principally using Verbeek 1884, the Royal Society report, and Kiessling 1884).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In particular, we explore the effect of different atmospheric states - the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) which impacts zonal movement of the stratospheric volcanic plume - to estimate the phase of the QBO in 1883 required for a fast-moving westward cloud. Since this alone is unable to match the observed latitudinal spread of the aerosols, we then explore the impact of an&amp;#160; umbrella cloud (2000 km diameter) that almost certainly formed during such a large eruption. A large umbrella cloud, spreading over ~18 degrees within the duration of the climax of the eruption (6-8 hours), can lead to much quicker latitudinal spread than a point source (vent). We will discuss the results of the combined model (umbrella cloud and correct QBO phase) with historical accounts and observations, as well as previous work on the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We also consider the likely impacts of water on aerosol concentrations and the relevance of this process for eruptions with possible significant seawater interactions, like Krakatau. We posit that the role of umbrella clouds is an under-appreciated, but significant, process for beginning to model the climatic impacts of large volcanic eruptions.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals On the effect of the volcanic eruptions of Mount Agung and El Chichón on the temperature of the stratosphere

1984 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-232
Author(s):  
K. Labitzke ◽  
B. Naujokat
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
El Chichon

Durante el verano y el otoño de 1982, y también durante el verano y otoño de 1963, la temperatura a 30 mbar subió más de tres desviaciones estándar sobre el promedio de 18 años en latitudes tropicales. Estos calentamientos se atribuyen a los aerosoles estratosféricos producidos por las erupciones del Monte Agung en marzo de 1963 y El Chichón en abril de 1982.

Comparison of Mount Pinatubo and El Chichon volcanic events: Lidar observations at 10.6 and 0.69 μm

1996 ◽  
Vol 101 (D2) ◽  
pp. 3929-3940 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madison J. Post ◽  
Christian J. Grund ◽  
Ann M. Weickmann ◽  
Kathleen R. Healy ◽  
Ron J. Willis
Keyword(s):  
Mount Pinatubo ◽  
Volcanic Events ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
Lidar Observations ◽  
El Chichon

Changes in the 300-mb North Circumpolar Vortex, 1963–2001

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2984-2994 ◽  
Author(s):  
James K. Angell
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Circumpolar Vortex ◽  
Eastern Hemisphere ◽  
University Of Berlin ◽  
El Chichón ◽  
Vortex Size ◽  
El Chichon

Abstract The mean monthly polar stereographic map analyses of the Free University of Berlin terminated at the end of 2001. This paper summarizes the changes in size of the 300-mb north circumpolar vortex, and quadrants, for the full period of record, 1963–2001, where the size has been defined by planimetering the area poleward of contours in the jet stream core. A contracted vortex has tended to be a deep vortex in winter but a shallow vortex in summer. During 1963–2001 there was a statistically significant decrease in vortex size of 1.5% per decade, the decrease in size of Western Hemisphere quadrants being twice that of Eastern Hemisphere quadrants. A significant increase in Arctic Oscillation (AO) index accompanies the significant decrease in vortex size, but since the vortex contracts appreciably in all four seasons, whereas the positive trend in the AO index is mainly in winter, the vortex cannot serve as a proxy for the AO index. The evidence for vortex contraction at the time of the 1976–77 regime shift is not conclusive, but there is good evidence for a 6% increase in vortex size due to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. There is little change in vortex size following the 1982 El Chichon eruption, however. Because on average there is a significant 4% contraction of the vortex following an El Niño, it is proposed that the vortex expansion to be expected following the 1982 El Chichon eruption has been contravened by the contraction following the strong 1982–83 El Niño. There is little relation between vortex size and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the evidence for a contracted vortex near 11-yr sunspot maxima is tenuous because the vortex record extends through only three full sunspot cycles. There is a highly significant tendency for opposite vortex quadrants 0°–90°E and 90°W–180° to vary in size together, indicating either a pulsating polar vortex or the propagation of planetary wavenumber 2.

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