scholarly journals Breathing of heliospheric structures triggered by the solar-cycle activity

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1303-1313 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Scherer ◽  
H. J. Fahr
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Periodic Variation ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
Activity Period ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Interplanetary Physics ◽  
Ram Pressure

Abstract. Solar wind ram pressure variations occuring within the solar activity cycle are communicated to the outer heliosphere as complicated time-variabilities, but repeating its typical form with the activity period of about 11 years. At outer heliospheric regions, the main surviving solar cycle feature is a periodic variation of the solar wind dynamical pressure or momentum flow, as clearly recognized by observations of the VOYAGER-1/2 space probes. This long-periodic variation of the solar wind dynamical pressure is modeled here through application of appropriately time-dependent inner boundary conditions within our multifluid code to describe the solar wind – interstellar medium interaction. As we can show, it takes several solar cycles until the heliospheric structures adapt to an average location about which they carry out a periodic breathing, however, lagged in phase with respect to the solar cycle. The dynamically active heliosphere behaves differently from a static heliosphere and especially shows a historic hysteresis in the sense that the shock structures move out to larger distances than explained by the average ram pressure. Obviously, additional energies are pumped into the heliosheath by means of density and pressure waves which are excited. These waves travel outwards through the interface from the termination shock towards the bow shock. Depending on longitude, the heliospheric sheath region memorizes 2–3 (upwind) and up to 6–7 (downwind) preceding solar activity cycles, i.e. the cycle-induced waves need corresponding travel times for the passage over the heliosheath. Within our multifluid code we also adequately describe the solar cycle variations in the energy distributions of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays, respectively. According to these results the distribution of these high energetic species cannot be correctly described on the basis of the actually prevailing solar wind conditions.Key words. Interplanetary physics (heliopause and solar wind termination; general or miscellaneous) – Space plasma physics (experimental and mathematical techniques)

scholarly journals On the Prediction of Solar Cycles

Solar Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 296 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Courtillot ◽  
F. Lopes ◽  
J. L. Le Mouël
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Transfer Function ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle ◽  
Planetary Motion ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Jovian Planets

AbstractThis article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020. We use singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to associate components with similar periods in the ephemeris and SSN. We determine the transfer function between the two data sets. We improve the match in successive steps: first with Jupiter only, then with the four Jovian planets and finally including commensurable periods of pairs and pairs of pairs of the Jovian planets (following Mörth and Schlamminger in Planetary Motion, Sunspots and Climate, Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, 193, 1979). The transfer function can be applied to the ephemeris to predict future cycles. We test this with success using the “hindcast prediction” of Solar Cycles 21 to 24, using only data preceding these cycles, and by analyzing separately two 130 and 140 year-long halves of the original series. We conclude with a prediction of Solar Cycle 25 that can be compared to a dozen predictions by other authors: the maximum would occur in 2026.2 (± 1 yr) and reach an amplitude of 97.6 (± 7.8), similar to that of Solar Cycle 24, therefore sketching a new “Modern minimum”, following the Dalton and Gleissberg minima.

scholarly journals Alfvénic fluctuations in "newborn"' polar solar wind

2005 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1513-1520 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Bavassano ◽  
E. Pietropaolo ◽  
R. Bruno
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Maximum ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Residual Energy ◽  
Mhd Waves ◽  
Polar Wind ◽  
Interplanetary Physics ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Comparative Statistical Analysis

Abstract. The 3-D structure of the solar wind is strongly dependent upon the Sun's activity cycle. At low solar activity a bimodal structure is dominant, with a fast and uniform flow at the high latitudes, and slow and variable flows at low latitudes. Around solar maximum, in sharp contrast, variable flows are observed at all latitudes. This last kind of pattern, however, is a relatively short-lived feature, and quite soon after solar maximum the polar wind tends to regain its role. The plasma parameter distributions for these newborn polar flows appear very similar to those typically observed in polar wind at low solar activity. The point addressed here is about polar wind fluctuations. As is well known, the low-solar-activity polar wind is characterized by a strong flow of Alfvénic fluctuations. Does this hold for the new polar flows too? An answer to this question is given here through a comparative statistical analysis on parameters such as total energy, cross helicity, and residual energy, that are of general use to describe the Alfvénic character of fluctuations. Our results indicate that the main features of the Alfvénic fluctuations observed in low-solar-activity polar wind have been quickly recovered in the new polar flows developed shortly after solar maximum. Keywords. Interplanetary physics (MHD waves and turbulence; Sources of the solar wind) – Space plasma physics (Turbulence)

scholarly journals Quasi-periodic changes in the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays for 1965–2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 609 ◽  
pp. A32 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Modzelewska ◽  
M. V. Alania
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Cosmic Rays ◽  
Ecliptic Plane ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
Magnetic Cycle ◽  
The North ◽  
Solar Magnetic Cycle

Aims. We study features of the 3D solar anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) for 1965−2014 (almost five solar cycles, cycles 20−24). We analyze the 27-day variations of the 2D GCR anisotropy in the ecliptic plane and the north-south anisotropy normal to the ecliptic plane. We study the dependence of the 27-day variation of the 3D GCR anisotropy on the solar cycle and solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the 27-day variations of the GCR intensity and anisotropy can be used as an important tool to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. Methods. We used the components Ar, Aϕ and At of the 3D GCR anisotropy that were found based on hourly data of neutron monitors (NMs) and muon telescopes (MTs) using the harmonic analyses and spectrographic methods. We corrected the 2D diurnal (~24-h) variation of the GCR intensity for the influence of the Earth magnetic field. We derived the north-south component of the GCR anisotropy based on the GG index, which is calculated as the difference in GCR intensities of the Nagoya multidirectional MTs. Results. We show that the behavior of the 27-day variation of the 3D anisotropy verifies a stable long-lived active heliolongitude on the Sun. This illustrates the usefulness of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy as a unique proxy to study solar wind, solar activity, and heliosphere. We distinguish a tendency of the 22-yr changes in amplitude of the 27-day variation of the 2D anisotropy that is connected with the solar magnetic cycle. We demonstrate that the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the north-south component of the anisotropy vary with the 11-yr solar cycle, but a dependence of the solar magnetic polarity can hardly be recognized. We show that the 27-day recurrences of the GG index and the At component are highly positively correlated, and both are highly correlated with the By component of the heliospheric magnetic field.

SOLAR NEUTRINO FLUX VARIATION IN KAMIOKANDE DETECTOR DURING SOLAR CYCLE 22

1998 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 1109-1114 ◽  
Author(s):  
PROBHAS RAYCHAUDHURI
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Solar Neutrino ◽  
Neutrino Flux ◽  
Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Activity Cycle ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Flux Data ◽  
Solar Neutrino Flux ◽  
Five Phases

The 8 B solar neutrino flux observed in Kamiokande detector (KAMIOKANDE II and III) from January 1987 to February 1995 has been analysed statistically and it has been found that solar neutrino flux data in Kamiokande detector varies with the solar activity cycle. It is also shown that solar neutrino flux data in Kamiokande detector also has five phases during the solar cycle 22 as observed in the Homestake solar neutrino flux data during the solar cycles 21 and 22 indicating that the solar activity cycle is due to the pulsating character of the nuclear energy generation inside the core of the sun.

scholarly journals Observations of recurrent cosmic ray decreases during solar cycles 22 and 23

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 3127-3138 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Dunzlaff ◽  
B. Heber ◽  
A. Kopp ◽  
O. Rother ◽  
R. Müller-Mellin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Coronal Hole ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Galactic Cosmic Rays ◽  
Slow Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Field Polarity ◽  
Apparent Contradiction

Abstract. During solar cycle 22, the modulation of several hundred MeV galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) by recurrent and transient cosmic ray decreases was observed by the Ulysses spacecraft on its descent towards the solar south pole. In solar cycle 23, Ulysses repeated this trajectory segment during a similar phase of the solar cycle, but with opposite heliospheric magnetic field polarity. Since cosmic ray propagation in the heliosphere should depend on drift effects, we determine in this study the latitudinal distribution of the amplitude of recurrent cosmic ray decreases in solar cycles 22 and 23. As long as we measure the recurrent plasma structures in situ, we find that these decreases behave nearly the same in both cycles. Measurements in the fast solar wind, however, show differences: in cycle 22 (A>0) the recurrent cosmic ray decreases show a clear maximum near 25° and are still present beyond 40°, whereas we see in cycle 23 (A<0) neither such a pronounced maximum nor significant decreases above 40°. In other words: the periodicity in the cosmic ray intensity, which can be clearly seen in the slow solar wind, appears to vanish there. Theoretical models for drift effects, however, predict quite the opposite behaviour for the two solar cycles. To closer investigate this apparent contradiction, we first put the visual inspection of the data onto a more solid basis by performing a detailed Lomb (spectral) analysis. The next step consists of an analysis of the resulting periodicities at 1 AU in order to distinguish between spatial and temporal variations, so that we can obtain statements about the question in how far there is a correlation between the in-situ data at 1 AU and those measured by Ulysses at larger latitudes. We find a good correlation being present during cycle 22, but not for cycle 23. As one potential explanation for this behaviour, we suggest the difference in the coronal hole structures between the cycles 22 and 23 due to a large, stable coronal hole structure, which is present during cycle 22, but not in cycle 23. We support this possibility by comparing Yohkoh SXT and SOHO EIT maps.

scholarly journals Solar Wind Helium Abundance Heralds Solar Cycle Onset

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin L Alterman ◽  
Justin C Kasper ◽  
Robert J Leamon ◽  
Scott W McIntosh
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Cycle Length ◽  
Phase Lag ◽  
Helium Abundance ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Solar Wind Acceleration ◽  
Solar Cycle Length

Abstract We study the solar wind helium-to-hydrogen abundance's ( A He ) relationship to solar cycle onset. Using OMNI/Lo data, we show that A He increases prior to sunspot number (SSN) minima. We also identify a rapid depletion and recovery in A He that occurs directly prior to cycle onset. This A He Shutoff happens at approximately the same time across solar wind speeds ( v sw ) and the time between successive A He shutoffs is typically on the order of the corresponding solar cycle length. In contrast to A He 's v sw -dependent phase lag with respect to SSN (Alterman and Kasper, 2019), A He Shutoff's concurrence across v sw likely implies it is independent of solar wind acceleration and driven by a mechanism near or below the photosphere. Using Brightpoint (BP) measurements to provide context, we infer that this shutoff is likely related to the overlap of adjacent solar cycles and the equatorial flux cancelation of the older, extended solar cycle during solar minima.

ESTABLISHING SOLAR ACTIVITY TREND FOR SOLAR CYCLES 21 – 24

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 100-106
Author(s):  
A.K. Singh ◽  
◽  
A. Bhargawa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Lyman Alpha ◽  
Rate Versus ◽  
Alpha Index

Solar-terrestrial environment is manifested primarily by the physical conditions of solar interior, solar atmosphere and eruptive solar plasma. Each parameter gives unique information about the Sun and its activity according to its defined characteristics. Hence the variability of solar parameters is of interest from the point of view of plasma dynamics on the Sun and in the interplanetary space as well as for the solar-terrestrial physics. In this study, we have analysed various solar transients and parameters to establish the recent trends of solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24. The correlation coefficients of linear regression of F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index, Mg II index, cosmic ray intensity, number of M & X class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurrence rate versus sunspot number was examined for last four solar cycles. A running cross-correlation method has been used to study the momentary relationship among the above mentioned solar activity parameters. Solar cycle 21 witnessed the highest value of correlation for F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index and number of M-class and X-class flares versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles which were 0.979, 0.935 and 0.964 respectively. Solar cycle 22 recorded the highest correlation in case of Mg II index, Ap index and CMEs occurrence rate versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles (0.964, 0.384 and 0.972 respectively). Solar cycle 23 and 24 did not witness any highest correlation compared to solar cycle 21 and 22. Further the record values (highest value compared to other solar three cycles) of each solar activity parameters for each of the four solar cycles have been studied. Here solar cycle 24 has no record text at all, this simply indicating that this cycle was a weakest cycle compared to the three previous ones. We have concluded that in every domain solar 24 was weaker to its three predecessors.

scholarly journals Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures

2011 ◽  
Vol 2011 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan-Erik Solheim ◽  
Kjell Stordahl ◽  
Ole Humlum
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Winter Temperature ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Cent Level ◽  
Cycle 24

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10–12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of °C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009–20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of °C.

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