scholarly journals Supplementary material to "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Live Fuel Moisture and Wildfire Risk Using a Hydrodynamic Vegetation Model"

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wu Ma ◽  
Lu Zhai ◽  
Alexandria Pivovaroff ◽  
Jacquelyn Shuman ◽  
Polly Buotte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Wildfire Risk ◽  
Supplementary Material ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture

scholarly journals Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 4005-4020
Author(s):  
Wu Ma ◽  
Lu Zhai ◽  
Alexandria Pivovaroff ◽  
Jacquelyn Shuman ◽  
Polly Buotte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Gas Emission ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

scholarly journals Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Live Fuel Moisture and Wildfire Risk Using a Hydrodynamic Vegetation Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wu Ma ◽  
Lu Zhai ◽  
Alexandria Pivovaroff ◽  
Jacquelyn Shuman ◽  
Polly Buotte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Gas Emission ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits, and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between simulated and observed LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating) from 1950 to 2099 for each PFT, and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.5–15.2 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % from historical period 1950–1999 to future period 2075–2099, and therefore cause an increase in wildlife danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.5–19.1 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.6–8.3 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.7–5.1 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

scholarly journals Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Risk in the United States

Forests ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 3197-3211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyunjin An ◽  
Jianbang Gan ◽  
Sung Cho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wildfire Risk

scholarly journals Potential impact of climate change on live fuel moisture dynamic at local scale

2014 ◽  
pp. 1231-1238
Author(s):  
Grazia Pellizzaro ◽  
Martin Dubrovsky ◽  
Sara Bortolu ◽  
Bachisio Arca ◽  
Andrea Ventura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture

scholarly journals LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land: Part I – Model description

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sibyll Schaphoff ◽  
Werner von Bloh ◽  
Anja Rammig ◽  
Kirsten Thonicke ◽  
Hester Biemans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
Reference Simulation ◽  
Managed Ecosystems ◽  
Global Vegetation

Abstract. This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates – internally consistently – the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation in direct coupling with water and carbon fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within, and impacts upon, the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land-use change. Here we describe the core model structure including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby we also summarize LPJmL model developments and evaluations (based on 34 earlier publications focused e.g. on improved representations of crop types, human and ecological water demand, and permafrost) and model applications (82 papers, e.g. on historical and future climate change impacts) since its first description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at a Gitlab server, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities, not least in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

scholarly journals An Application of a Physical Vegetation Model to Estimate Climate Change Impacts on Rice Leaf Wetness

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1482-1495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryuhei Yoshida ◽  
Yumi Onodera ◽  
Takamasa Tojo ◽  
Takeshi Yamazaki ◽  
Hiromitsu Kanno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Leaf Surface ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Leaf Wetness ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Rice Leaf

AbstractA physical vegetation model [the Two-Layer Model (2LM)] was applied to estimate the climate change impacts on rice leaf wetness (LW) as a potential indicator of rice blast occurrence. Japan was used as an example. Dynamically downscaled data at 20-km-mesh resolution from three global climate models (CCSM4, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) were utilized for present (1981–2000) and future (2081–2100) climates under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. To evaluate the performance of the 2LM, the LW and other meteorological variables were observed for 108 days during the summer of 2013 at three sites on the Pacific Ocean side of Japan. The derived correct estimation rate was 77.4%, which is similar to that observed in previous studies. Using the downscaled dataset, the changes in several precipitation indices were calculated. The regionally averaged ensemble mean precipitation increased by 6%, although large intermodel differences were found. By defining a wet day as any day in which the daily precipitation was ≥ 1 mm day−1, it was found that the precipitation frequency decreased by 6% and the precipitation intensity increased by 11% for the entire area. The leaf surface environment was estimated to be dry; leaf wetness, wet frequency, and wet times all decreased. It was found that a decrease in water trap opportunities due to reduced precipitation frequency was the primary contributor to the LW decrease. For blast fungus, an increased precipitation intensity was expected to enhance the washout effect on the leaf surface. In the present case, the infection risk was estimated to decrease for Japan.

scholarly journals IMOGEN: an intermediate complexity model to evaluate terrestrial impacts of a changing climate

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 679-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Huntingford ◽  
B. B. B. Booth ◽  
S. Sitch ◽  
N. Gedney ◽  
J. A. Lowe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Regional Assessment ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
First Order ◽  
Process Understanding

Abstract. We present a computationally efficient modelling system, IMOGEN, designed to undertake global and regional assessment of climate change impacts on the physical and biogeochemical behaviour of the land surface. A pattern-scaling approach to climate change drives a gridded land surface and vegetation model MOSES/TRIFFID. The structure allows extrapolation of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations to different future pathways of greenhouse gases, including rapid first-order assessments of how the land surface and associated biogeochemical cycles might change. Evaluation of how new terrestrial process understanding influences such predictions can also be made with relative ease.

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