scholarly journals Evaluating the timing and structure of the 4.2 ka event in the Indian summer monsoon domain from an annually resolved speleothem record from Northeast India

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 1869-1879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gayatri Kathayat ◽  
Hai Cheng ◽  
Ashish Sinha ◽  
Max Berkelhammer ◽  
Haiwei Zhang ◽  
...  

Abstract. A large array of proxy records suggests that the “4.2 ka event” marks an approximately 300-year long period (∼3.9 to 4.2 ka) of major climate change across the globe. However, the climatic manifestation of this event, including its onset, duration, and termination, remains less clear in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) domain. Here, we present new oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from a pair of speleothems (ML.1 and ML.2) from Mawmluh Cave, Meghalaya, India, that provide a high-resolution record of ISM variability during a period (∼3.78 and 4.44 ka) that fully encompasses the 4.2 ka event. The sub-annually to annually resolved ML.1 δ18O record is constrained by 18 230Th dates with an average dating error of ±13 years (2σ) and a resolution of ∼40 years, which allows us to characterize the ISM variability with unprecedented detail. The inferred pattern of ISM variability during the period contemporaneous with the 4.2 ka event shares broad similarities and key differences with the previous reconstructions of ISM from the Mawmluh Cave and other proxy records from the region. Our data suggest that the ISM intensity, in the context of the length of our record, abruptly decreased at ∼4.0 ka (∼±13 years), marking the onset of a multi-centennial period of relatively reduced ISM, which was punctuated by at least two multi-decadal droughts between ∼3.9 and 4.0 ka. The latter stands out in contrast with some previous proxy reconstructions of the ISM, in which the 4.2 ka event has been depicted as a singular multi-centennial drought.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gayatri Kathayat ◽  
Hai Cheng ◽  
Ashish Sinha ◽  
Max Berkelhammer ◽  
Haiwei Zhang ◽  
...  

Abstract. A global array of proxy records suggests that the 4.2 ka event marks an ~ 300-year period of major climate anomaly. However, the climatic manifestation of this event, including its onset, duration, and termination, remain less clear in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) domain. Here, we present a new speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from Mawmluh Cave, Northeast India, which provides an annually-resolved record of changes in ISM strength between ~ 4.440 and 3.780 ka BP. Our δ18O record is constrained by 18 230Th dates with an average age uncertainty of ±13 years and a dating resolution of ~ 40 years, which allow us to characterize the timing and structure of the 4.2 ka event with an unprecedented detail. The overall expression of the 4.2 ka event in our record shares broad similarities with a previous δ18O record from the Mawmluh Cave as well as with other previous lower-resolution proxy reconstructions of the ISM. However, unlike some previous ISM records, where the 4.2 ka event has been described as a singular multi-centennial period of anomalously weak ISM, our data suggest a more variable response of ISM during this period. The 4.2 ka event in our record exhibits a three-stage structure, characterized by highly variable ISM between ~ 4.255 and 4.070 ka BP and a distinct pluvial phase from ~ 4.070–4.010 ka BP. The latter abruptly (


2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 653-664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenxi Xu ◽  
Masaki Sano ◽  
Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri ◽  
Rengaswamy Ramesh ◽  
Takeshi Nakatsuka ◽  
...  

Abstract. We have constructed a regional tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotope (δ18O) record for the northern Indian sub-continent based on two new records from northern India and central Nepal and three published records from northwestern India, western Nepal and Bhutan. The record spans the common interval from 1743 to 2008 CE. Correlation analysis reveals that the record is significantly and negatively correlated with the three regional climatic indices: all India rainfall (AIR; r  =  −0.5, p  <  0.001, n  =  138), Indian monsoon index (IMI; r  =  −0.45, p  <  0.001, n  =  51) and the intensity of monsoonal circulation (r  =  −0.42, p  <  0.001, n  =  51). The close relationship between tree-ring cellulose δ18O and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) can be explained by oxygen isotope fractionation mechanisms. Our results indicate that the regional tree-ring cellulose δ18O record is suitable for reconstructing high-resolution changes in the ISM. The record exhibits significant interannual and long-term variations. Interannual changes are closely related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which indicates that the ISM was affected by ENSO in the past. However, the ISM–ENSO relationship was not consistent over time, and it may be partly modulated by Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). Long-term changes in the regional tree-ring δ18O record indicate a possible trend of weakened ISM intensity since 1820. Decreasing ISM activity is also observed in various high-resolution ISM records from southwest China and Southeast Asia, and may be the result of reduced land–ocean thermal contrasts since 1820 CE.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arvind Singh ◽  
Kiran Kumar Pullabotla ◽  
Ramesh Rengaswamy

&lt;p&gt;El-Ni&amp;#241;o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects Indian summer monsoon. Most of the worst droughts - the most recent being in 2009 - in India have been triggered by ENSO. But given the heterogeneity in rainfall patterns over India, we revisited ENSO influence on Indian summer monsoon. Our analysis based on multiple isotopic (proxy-based) and satellite data set shows significant variation in the spatiotemporal patterns of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and adjoining oceans. We observed a weaker summer monsoon over central India and relatively stronger summer monsoon over northeast India during strong El-Ni&amp;#241;o events. Rainfall derived from isotope-enabled general circulation models reproduces weak and strong rainfall patterns during the El-Ni&amp;#241;o events over central India and northeast India, respectively. These model derived &amp;#948;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;rain&lt;/sub&gt; (oxygen isotopic composition of rainfall) variation over central India during ENSO events mimic the weaker rainfall conditions. However, significant changes in the model derived rainfall and associated &amp;#948;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;rain &lt;/sub&gt;is not observed over northeast India during ENSO events. Based on multiple data analysis, we infer that the long term variations (trends) in the Indian summer monsoon strength were controlled by the long term variation in ENSO during the last 50 years (1965 &amp;#8211; 2013).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Since these observations were unprecedented and counterintuitive, we further verified our observations from the proxy records. Two speleothems (cave deposits) records from the central India and northeast India were analyzed for the rainfall variation and ENSO influence signatures. These paleo-proxy records showed a similar inverse relation of rainfall patterns over central India and northeast India during ENSO periods, confirming observed ENSO&amp;#8217;s role on rainfall. Also, these proxy records showed a long-term pause in ENSO events or stronger La-Ni&amp;#241;a like conditions, which were persisted during 1625 &amp;#8211; 1715 and favored stronger (weaker) rainfall over central India (northeast India).&lt;/p&gt;


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayasankar C B ◽  
Rajendran K ◽  
Sajani Surendran

Abstract High-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations are found to be very useful in deriving realistic climate change projection information. This study uses high-resolution dynamical downscaling framework (CCSM4-WRF) for India. To delineate the advantage of high resolution, we compared the results of 9-km resolution CCSM4-WRF simulations against the 50-km resolution RCM simulations under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) programme. Quantitative estimations show that majority of CORDEX-SA models exhibit large dry bias (<-4mm/day) and low pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) over the Western Ghats (WG). Mean climatology of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall simulated by high-resolution CCSM4-WRF outperforms the CORDEX-SA RCMs with low negative biases (~ 1mm/day) and high PCC (≥ 0.755). This skill of CCSM4-WRF provides better confidence in its future projection at local scale. CCSM4-WRF projects future intensification of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India and reduction over southern WG, which is consistent with recent observed trends, but none of the CORDEX-SA RCMs could simulate this rainfall reduction. For all-India rainfall, ensemble mean of CORDEX-SA models projects an increase by 1.3 ± 0.9mm/day and CCSM4-WRF projects 0.67mm/day. Projected changes in socioeconomic variables such as population and gross domestic product (GDP) exhibit future enhancement over most parts of India but with spatial heterogeneity. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios show pronounced future population growth over Indian coastal areas, and large enhancement in productivity over urban areas. Therefore, climate change projection information of ISM rainfall, together with enhanced future population and GDP, is useful for taking necessary steps for adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable manner.


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