scholarly journals A new multivariable benchmark for Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 699-712
Author(s):  
Sean F. Cleator ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Nancy K. Nichols ◽  
I. Colin Prentice ◽  
Ian Roulstone
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Geographical Regions

Abstract. We present a new global reconstruction of seasonal climates at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years BP) made using 3-D variational data assimilation with pollen-based site reconstructions of six climate variables and the ensemble average of the PMIP3—CMIP5 simulations as a prior (initial estimate of LGM climate). We assume that the correlation matrix of the uncertainties in the prior is both spatially and temporally Gaussian, in order to produce a climate reconstruction that is smoothed both from month to month and from grid cell to grid cell. The pollen-based reconstructions include mean annual temperature (MAT), mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWA), growing season warmth as measured by growing degree days above a baseline of 5 ∘C (GDD5), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and a moisture index (MI), which is the ratio of MAP to mean annual potential evapotranspiration. Different variables are reconstructed at different sites, but our approach both preserves seasonal relationships and allows a more complete set of seasonal climate variables to be derived at each location. We further account for the ecophysiological effects of low atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on vegetation in making reconstructions of MAP and MI. This adjustment results in the reconstruction of wetter climates than might otherwise be inferred from the vegetation composition. Finally, by comparing the uncertainty contribution to the final reconstruction, we provide confidence intervals on these reconstructions and delimit geographical regions for which the palaeodata provide no information to constrain the climate reconstructions. The new reconstructions will provide a benchmark created using clear and defined mathematical procedures that can be used for evaluation of the PMIP4–CMIP6 entry-card LGM simulations and are available at https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.244 (Cleator et al., 2020b).

scholarly journals A new multi-variable benchmark for Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean F. Cleator ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Nancy K, Nichols ◽  
Iain Colin Prentice ◽  
Ian Roulstone
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Geographical Regions

Abstract. We present a new global reconstruction of seasonal climates at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 yr BP) made using 3-D variational data assimilation with pollen-based site reconstructions of six climate variables and the ensemble average of the PMIP3/CMIP5 simulations as a prior. We assume that the correlation matrix of the errors of the prior both spatially and temporally is Gaussian, in order to produce a climate reconstruction that is smoothed both from month to month and from grid cell to grid cell. The pollen-based reconstructions include mean annual temperature (MAT), mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWA), growing season warmth as measured by growing degree days above a baseline of 5 °C (GDD5), mean annual precipitation (MAP) and a moisture index (MI), which is the ratio of MAP to mean annual potential evapotranspiration. Different variables are reconstructed at different sites, but our approach both preserves seasonal relationships and allows a more complete set of seasonal climate variables to be derived at each location. We further account for the ecophysiological effects of low atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on vegetation in making reconstructions of MAP and MI. This adjustment results in the reconstruction of wetter climates than might otherwise be inferred by the vegetation composition. Finally, by comparing the error contribution to the final reconstruction, we provide confidence intervals on these reconstructions and delimit geographical regions for which the palaeodata provide no information to constrain the climate reconstructions. The new reconstructions will provide a robust benchmark for evaluation of the PMIP4/CMIP6 entry-card LGM simulations.

scholarly journals Formation of undulating topography and gravel beds at the bases of incised valleys: Last Glacial Maximum examples beneath the lowlands facing Tokyo Bay

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susumu Tanabe ◽  
Yoshiro Ishihara
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
River Sediments ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Tokyo Bay ◽  
Braided River ◽  
Gravel Bed ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Incised Valleys ◽  
Borehole Logs

AbstractRecent studies using well density distributed borehole logs have revealed undulating topography at the bases of incised valleys formed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In this study, from analysis of 4702 borehole logs, undulating topography forming a series of pits 1–2 km long, < 1 km wide, 5–10 m deep, and spaced at 1–2-km intervals was discovered at the bases of LGM incised valleys beneath the Tama River Lowland on the west coast of Tokyo Bay. This undulating topography can be attributed to scouring at braided river channel confluences. In the study area, single borehole logs are available within each 187 m × 187 m grid cell, and the logs sample both the bottom and marginal portions of the scouring, which suggests that this undulating topography is not an artifact of erroneous values arising from mathematical interpolation. The morphologies and incision depths of two incised valleys in the study area show a cover effect of the gravel bed at the base of the post-LGM incised-valley fills. The basal age of this basal gravel bed (BG) is confirmed at < 30 ka because the LGM incised valleys dissect the MIS 3 Tachikawa buried terrace overlain by the AT tephra dated 30.0 ka. This means that the BG, which represents braided-river sediments, is interpreted as resulting from the LGM sea-level lowstand after 30 ka.

scholarly journals CHELSA-TraCE21k v1.0. Downscaled transient temperature and precipitation data since the last glacial maximum

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Nikolaus Karger ◽  
Michael P. Nobis ◽  
Signe Normand ◽  
Catherine H. Graham ◽  
Niklaus E. Zimmermann
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Transient Temperature ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. High resolution, downscaled climate model data are used in a wide variety of applications in environmental sciences. Here we present the CHELSA-TraCE21k downscaling algorithm to create global monthly climatologies for temperature and precipitation at 30 arcsec spatial resolution in 100 year time steps for the last 21,000 years. Paleo orography at high spatial resolution and at each timestep is created by combining high resolution information on glacial cover from current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) glacier databases with the interpolation of a dynamic ice sheet model (ICE6G) and a coupling to mean annual temperatures from CCSM3-TraCE21k. Based on the reconstructed paleo orography, mean annual temperature and precipitation was downscaled using the CHELSA V1.2 algorithm. The data were validated by comparisons with the glacial extent of the Laurentide ice shield based on expert delineations, proxy data from Greenland ice cores, historical climate data from meteorological stations, and a dynamic simulation of species a distribution throughout the Holocene. Validations show that CHELSA TraCE21k output creates a reasonable representation of the distribution of temperature and precipitation through time at a high spatial resolution, and simulations based on the data are capable of detecting effective LGM refugia of species.

scholarly journals Niche modeling for the genus Pogona (Squamata: Agamidae) in Australia: predicting past (late Quaternary) and future (2070) areas of suitable habitat

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e6128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie E. Rej ◽  
T. Andrew Joyner
Keyword(s):  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Background As the climate warms, many species of reptiles are at risk of habitat loss and ultimately extinction. Locations of suitable habitat in the past, present, and future were modeled for several lizard species using MaxEnt, incorporating climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation. In this study, we predict where there is currently suitable habitat for the genus Pogona and potential shifts in habitat suitability in the past and future. Methods Georeferenced occurrence records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, climate variables (describing temperature and precipitation) were obtained from WorldClim, and a vegetation index was obtained from AVHRR satellite data. Matching climate variables were downloaded for three different past time periods (mid-Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum, and Last Interglacial) and two different future projections representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). MaxEnt produced accuracy metrics, response curves, and probability surfaces. For each species, parameters were adjusted for the best possible output that was biologically informative. Results Model results predicted that in the past, there was little suitable habitat for P. henrylawsoni and P. microlepidota within the areas of their current range. Past areas of suitable habitat for P. barbata were predicted to be similar to the current prediction. Pogona minor and P. nullarbor were predicted to have had a more expansive range of suitable habitat in the past, which has reduced over time. P. vitticeps was predicted to have less suitable habitat in the past when examining the region of their known occurrence; however, there was predicted growth in suitable habitat in Western Australia. Both 2070 models predict a similar distribution of habitat; however, the model produced using the 2070 RCP 8.5 climate change projection showed a larger change, both in areas of suitable habitat gain and loss. In the future, P. henrylawsoni and P. microlepidota might gain suitable habitat, while the other four species could possibly suffer habitat loss. Discussion Based on the model results, P. henrylawsoni and P. microlepidota had minimal areas of suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum, possibly due to changes in tolerance or data/model limitations, especially since genetic analyses for these species suggest a much earlier emergence. The predicted late Quaternary habitat results for all species of Pogona are conservative and should be compared to the fossil record which is not possible at the moment due to the current inability to identify fossil Pogona to the species level. P. nullarbor and P. vitticeps future models predict substantial habitat loss. P. nullarbor could potentially be considered vulnerable in the present since it already has a restricted range, and a conservation plan may need to be considered.

Reconstructions of the past distribution of Testudo graeca mitochondrial lineages in the Middle East and Transcaucasia support multiple refugia since the Last Glacial Maximum

2021 ◽  
pp. 10-17
Author(s):  
Oguz Turkozan
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
Testudo Graeca ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The Past ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Multiple Refugia ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

A cycle of glacial and interglacial periods in the Quaternary caused species’ ranges to expand and contract in response to climatic and environmental changes. During interglacial periods, many species expanded their distribution ranges from refugia into higher elevations and latitudes. In the present work, we projected the responses of the five lineages of Testudo graeca in the Middle East and Transcaucasia as the climate shifted from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, Mid – Holocene), to the present. Under the past LGM and Mid-Holocene bioclimatic conditions, models predicted relatively more suitable habitats for some of the lineages. The most significant bioclimatic variables in predicting the present and past potential distribution of clades are the precipitation of the warmest quarter for T. g. armeniaca (95.8 %), precipitation seasonality for T. g. buxtoni (85.0 %), minimum temperature of the coldest month for T. g. ibera (75.4 %), precipitation of the coldest quarter for T. g. terrestris (34.1 %), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter for T. g. zarudyni (88.8 %). Since the LGM, we hypothesise that the ranges of lineages have either expanded (T. g. ibera), contracted (T. g. zarudnyi) or remained stable (T. g. terrestris), and for other two taxa (T. g. armeniaca and T. g. buxtoni) the pattern remains unclear. Our analysis predicts multiple refugia for Testudo during the LGM and supports previous hypotheses about high lineage richness in Anatolia resulting from secondary contact.

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