An inventory of extreme events and their impacts: implications for changing risks and climate adaption

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Clarke ◽  
Friederike Otto ◽  
Richard Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Uk

<p>Extreme weather of increasing intensity and frequency is the sharp edge of climate change. Greater understanding of exactly how the risks to people and property from such events are changing is therefore of considerable value to society; it enables the effective allocation of resources for adaption planning and provides a foundation for cost-benefit analysis of mitigation policy. Moreover, the first global stocktake following the Paris Agreement aims to comprehensively detail climate change-related loss and countries’ adaption ambition. Thus there is a clear imperative for greater understanding of the drivers of extreme weather risks.</p><p>To this end, the emerging field of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) is becoming increasingly able to attribute the specific meteorological conditions (or even the impacts) of an event to human-induced climate change. This provides a tangible, evidence-based bridge between the global phenomenon of climate change and the scales at which people live and decisions are made. However, EEA studies are currently undertaken on an ad-hoc basis, in part due to discrepancies in data availability in different regions but also the lack of comprehensive, coordinated efforts. To provide greater utility to vital policy questions, insights from EEA need to be integrated into a wider system for documenting past events and understanding drivers of change.</p><p>In accordance with this, we propose a standardised framework for recording historical extreme weather events in an inventory structure. In our method, existing hazard-loss databases such as EMDAT provide a basis for event selection and give some basic impact details. Then, additional impact information, as well as detail about the process chain leading from antecedent conditions to impacts (the ‘event narrative’), is researched from a range of academic, government and NGO sources. Finally, existing attribution literature provides the link, or lack thereof, to human climate change. The comprehensive nature of such an inventory will align with the remit of the global stocktaking process, and offers a new and valuable perspective for understanding and adapting to changing risks at both national and sub-national scales.</p><p>To demonstrate the framework, we will here present inventories of past extreme weather events for the UK and the Caribbean in the period 2000-2019. Specifically, we will explore the logic and methodology behind the inventory framework, and use these examples to consider potential applications as well as foreseen drawbacks to the concept.</p>

scholarly journals BUILDING UP RESILIENC E OF CONSTRUCTION SECTOR SMES AND THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 362-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gayan Wedawatta ◽  
Bingunath Ingirige ◽  
Dilanthi Amaratunga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Coping Capacity ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Uk

Wider scientific community now accept that the threat of climate change as real and thus acknowledge the importance of implementing adaptation measures in a global context. In the UK, the physical effects of climate change are likely to be directly felt in the form of extreme weather events, which are predicted to escalate in number and severity in future under the changing climatic conditions. Construction industry; which consists of supply chains running across various other industries, economies and regions, will also be affected due to these events. Thus, it is important that the construction organisations are well prepared to withstand the effects of extreme weather events not only directly affecting their organizations but also affecting their supply chains which in turn might affect the organisation concerned. Given the fact that more than 99% of construction sector businesses are SMEs, the area can benefit significantly from policy making to improve SME resilience and coping capacity. This paper presents the literature review and synthesis of a doctoral research study undertaken to address the issue of extreme weather resilience of construction sector SMEs and their supply chains. The main contribution of the paper to both academia and practitioners is a synthesis model that conceptualises the factors that enhances resilience of SMEs and their supply chains against extreme weather events. This synthesis model forms the basis of a decision making framework that will enable SMEs to both reduce their vulnerability and enhance their coping capacity against extreme weather. The value of this paper is further extended by the overall research design that is set forth as the way forward. Santruka Gana daug mokslininku jau sutinka, kad klimato kaitos gresme yra reali, taigi pripažista, kaip pasauliniame kontekste svarbu diegti prisitaikymo priemones. Tiketina, kad Jungtineje Karalysteje fizinis klimato kaitos poveikis bus tiesiogiai jaučiamas per ekstremalius meteorologinius reiškinius. Prognozuojama, kad kintant klimato salygoms ju skaičius ir intensyvumas ateityje dides. Tokie reiškiniai paveiks ir statybu pramone, kuria sudaro per kitas ivairiausias pramones šakas, ūkius ir regionus einančios tiekimo grandines. Taigi svarbu, kad statybu organizacijos būtu tinkamai pasiruošusios atlaikyti ekstremalius meteorologinius reiškinius, kurie daro tiesiogine itaka ne tik šioms organizacijoms, bet ir ju tiekimo grandinems, kurios savo ruožtu gali paveikti atitinkama organizacija. Daugiau kaip 99 proc. statybu sektoriuje veikiančiu imoniu priklauso SVV kategorijai, tad šiai sričiai išties praverstu politika, gerinanti SVV atsparuma ir gebejima susitvarkyti. Šiame darbe pateikiama literatūros apžvalga ir trumpai pristatomas daktaro disertacijos tyrimas, kuriuo siekta išnagrineti statybu sektoriaus SVV ir ju tiekimo grandiniu atsparuma ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Pagrindinis darbo indelis, pravartus ir mokslininkams, ir praktikams, tai sintezes modelis, kuriame suformuluojami veiksniai, didinantys SVV ir ju tiekimo grandiniu atsparuma ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Šis sintezes modelis yra sprendimu priemimo sistemos pagrindas, o sistema SVV leis ne tik mažinti pažeidžiamuma, bet ir didinti gebejima susitvarkyti esant ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Šio darbo verte dar labiau padidina bendras tyrimo modelis, pateikiamas kaip žingsnis pirmyn.

scholarly journals Adaptation of Wetland Rice to Extreme Weather

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-77
Author(s):  
Dulbari Dulbari ◽  
Edi Santosa ◽  
Eko Sulistyono ◽  
Yonny Koesmaryono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Grain Filling ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Canopy Architecture ◽  
Weather Events

Climate change is believed to increase the intensity and the frequency of extreme weather events in reference to strong winds and heavy precipitations. The extreme event is defined as strong wind at speed of 50 km.h-1 and rain fall intensity 10 to 20 mm.h-1 or more .  This condition is detrimental to rice production as this may lead to lodging and flooding which normally occurs during the grain filling stage to harvesting resulting in lower yield and grain quality.  The. Simultaneous extreme events and critical rice growth occured more frequently due to increasing cropping season within a year in Indonesia. Therefore, it is important to mitigate and develop adaptation strategies in order to sustain rice production. Efforts to adapt to these extreme environmental conditions are mostly based on genetics and agro ecological approaches. Genetically, rice with strong hills, high aerodynamic with low water retention is desired. Agro-ecological manipulation is conducted through wind break application, planting arrangement to facilitate better sunshine penetration, to manage water level and planting calendar. Availability of weather station in the field is important to improve mitigation and continuous adaptation strategy against extreme weather events. Keywords: plant canopy architecture, climate change, heavy rainfall, lodging, strong wind

Environmental affordances and the work of everyday family lives

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Phoenix ◽  
Uma Vennam ◽  
Catherine Walker ◽  
Janet Boddy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Environmental Messages ◽  
The Uk

This chapter looks at the sort of environmental issues that families in India and the UK had to negotiate: sometimes routinely (for example, pollution and danger from road traffic) and sometimes unpredictably (for example, flooding and other extreme weather events). It addresses the complexity of the intermeshing of environmental concerns and practices by focusing on families who were so preoccupied with caring for their families and the daily grind of family maintenance that this superseded concern with climate change. Since families live in diverse material circumstances, environmental messages are likely to be received in different ways and to have varied impacts on different families and children.

scholarly journals “What’s Up with the Weather?” Public Engagement with Extreme Event Attribution in the UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Ettinger ◽  
Peter Walton ◽  
James Painter ◽  
Shannon Osaka ◽  
Friederike E.L. Otto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Scientific Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
The Uk

AbstractThe science of extreme event attribution (EEA) – which connects specific extreme weather events with anthropogenic climate change – could prove useful for engaging the public about climate change. However, there is limited empirical research examining EEA as a climate change communication tool. In order to help fill this gap, we conducted focus groups with members of the UK public to explore benefits and challenges of utilizing EEA results in climate change advocacy messages. Testing a range of verbal and visual approaches for communicating EEA, we found that EEA shows significant promise for climate change communication because of its ability to connect novel, attention-grabbing and event-specific scientific information to personal experiences and observations of extreme events. Communication challenges include adequately capturing nuances around extreme weather risks, vulnerability, adaptation and disaster risk reduction; expressing scientific uncertainty without undermining accessibility of key findings; and difficulties interpreting mathematical aspects of EEA results. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations to help address these challenges when communicating EEA results beyond the climate science community. We conclude that EEA can help catalyze important dialogues about the links between extreme weather and human-driven climate change.

scholarly journals Is it climate change? Coverage by online news sites of the 2019 European summer heatwaves in France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK

2021 ◽  
Vol 169 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Painter ◽  
Joshua Ettinger ◽  
Marie-Noëlle Doutreix ◽  
Nadine Strauß ◽  
Anke Wonneberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Online News ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
News Websites ◽  
The Uk

AbstractIn 2019, several countries across Western Europe experienced record-breaking temperatures and heatwaves which, in some cases, reached temperatures of over 40 °C for three to four consecutive days during June and July. Extreme event attribution (EEA) studies show that anthropogenic climate change increased the likelihood of these events by at least three to ten times (with different results for different countries), and increased the temperature by 1.2 to 3.0 °C. The heatwaves resulted in more than 2500 deaths. Based on a content analysis of 267 articles taken from 20 of the most visited online news websites in four of the countries most affected by the heatwaves (France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK), we find strong variations between countries and media outlets in how much attention journalists pay to links between climate change and the heatwaves (the UK media the most, and politically left-leaning titles more than right-leaning ones); many different types of statements depicting the link but in general, the presence of accurate, science-based descriptions; a strong presence of EEA studies in the coverage; and more quotes from climate scientists than politicians and NGOs, with a minimal presence of climate change skeptics. These results contribute to our understanding of media coverage around extreme weather events in different countries and media outlets, and how such events might serve as opportunities for public engagement with climate change.

scholarly journals Extreme Weather Events in the UK Elevate Climate Change Belief but not Pro-Environmental Behaviour

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Rüttenauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Spatial Distance ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Environmental Behaviour ◽  
General Trust ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Uk

The exposure to extreme weather events has been linked to higher belief in climate change and the likelihood of engaging in pro-environmental behaviour. Supposedly, personal exposure reduces the subjectively perceived spatial and temporal distance to climate events, and thus increases the belief in climate change and environmentally friendly behaviour.This study exploits the variation in temporal and spatial distance to floods and periods of extreme temperature, and estimate the effect of personal experience on climate change belief and self-reported pro-environmental behaviour. Therefore, I connect individual-level panel data of up to 120,852 observations from 67,547 individuals to floods across England and heatwaves across the UK between 2008 and 2020. I control for large-scale spatial patterns and pre-existing differences between affected and non-affected individuals using person-fixed effects estimators.Results reveal that individuals are more likely to believe in climate change when they are affected by floods or heatwaves, and the effect is stronger for spatially and temporally proximate events. However, this does not translate into more pro-environmental behaviour: results provide only slightest evidence for a positive overall change in behaviour. Still, people differ in their reaction to extreme weather events. While the effect on climate change belief is mainly driven by individuals with initially low trust-levels, only respondents with a high level of general trust show some signs of positive behavioural reactions to extreme weather events.

scholarly journals Attribution matters: revisiting the link between extreme weather experience and climate change mitigation responses

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Adedayo Ogunbode
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Change Mitigation

The literature suggests extreme weather experiences have potential to increase climate change engagement by influencing the way people perceive the proximity and implications of climate change. Yet, limited attention has been directed at investigating how individual differences in the subjective interpretation of extreme weather events as indications of climate change modulate the link between extreme weather experiences and climate change attitudes. This article contends that subjective attribution of extreme weather events to climate change is a necessary condition for extreme weather experiences to be translated into climate change mitigation responses, and that subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change is determined by the psychological and social contexts in which individuals appraise their experiences with extreme weather. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, I show that personal experience of this flooding event is only directly linked to perceived threat from climate change, and indirectly linked to climate change mitigation responses, among individuals who subjectively attributed the floods to climate change. Additionally, subjective attribution of the floods to climate change is significantly predicted by pre-existing climate change belief, political affiliation and perceived normative cues. Attempts to harness extreme weather experiences as a route to engaging the public must be attentive to the heterogeneity of opinion on the attributability of extreme weather events to climate change.

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (49) ◽  
pp. e2112087118
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Leach ◽  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Tim Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
The Impact

Attribution of extreme weather events has expanded rapidly as a field over the past decade. However, deficiencies in climate model representation of key dynamical drivers of extreme events have led to some concerns over the robustness of climate model–based attribution studies. It has also been suggested that the unconditioned risk-based approach to event attribution may result in false negative results due to dynamical noise overwhelming any climate change signal. The “storyline” attribution framework, in which the impact of climate change on individual drivers of an extreme event is examined, aims to mitigate these concerns. Here we propose a methodology for attribution of extreme weather events using the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) medium-range forecast model that successfully predicted the event. The use of a successful forecast ensures not only that the model is able to accurately represent the event in question, but also that the analysis is unequivocally an attribution of this specific event, rather than a mixture of multiple different events that share some characteristic. Since this attribution methodology is conditioned on the component of the event that was predictable at forecast initialization, we show how adjusting the lead time of the forecast can flexibly set the level of conditioning desired. This flexible adjustment of the conditioning allows us to synthesize between a storyline (highly conditioned) and a risk-based (relatively unconditioned) approach. We demonstrate this forecast-based methodology through a partial attribution of the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 concentrations on the exceptional European winter heatwave of February 2019.

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