scholarly journals “What’s Up with the Weather?” Public Engagement with Extreme Event Attribution in the UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Ettinger ◽  
Peter Walton ◽  
James Painter ◽  
Shannon Osaka ◽  
Friederike E.L. Otto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Scientific Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
The Uk

AbstractThe science of extreme event attribution (EEA) – which connects specific extreme weather events with anthropogenic climate change – could prove useful for engaging the public about climate change. However, there is limited empirical research examining EEA as a climate change communication tool. In order to help fill this gap, we conducted focus groups with members of the UK public to explore benefits and challenges of utilizing EEA results in climate change advocacy messages. Testing a range of verbal and visual approaches for communicating EEA, we found that EEA shows significant promise for climate change communication because of its ability to connect novel, attention-grabbing and event-specific scientific information to personal experiences and observations of extreme events. Communication challenges include adequately capturing nuances around extreme weather risks, vulnerability, adaptation and disaster risk reduction; expressing scientific uncertainty without undermining accessibility of key findings; and difficulties interpreting mathematical aspects of EEA results. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations to help address these challenges when communicating EEA results beyond the climate science community. We conclude that EEA can help catalyze important dialogues about the links between extreme weather and human-driven climate change.

An inventory of extreme events and their impacts: implications for changing risks and climate adaption

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Clarke ◽  
Friederike Otto ◽  
Richard Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Uk

<p>Extreme weather of increasing intensity and frequency is the sharp edge of climate change. Greater understanding of exactly how the risks to people and property from such events are changing is therefore of considerable value to society; it enables the effective allocation of resources for adaption planning and provides a foundation for cost-benefit analysis of mitigation policy. Moreover, the first global stocktake following the Paris Agreement aims to comprehensively detail climate change-related loss and countries’ adaption ambition. Thus there is a clear imperative for greater understanding of the drivers of extreme weather risks.</p><p>To this end, the emerging field of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) is becoming increasingly able to attribute the specific meteorological conditions (or even the impacts) of an event to human-induced climate change. This provides a tangible, evidence-based bridge between the global phenomenon of climate change and the scales at which people live and decisions are made. However, EEA studies are currently undertaken on an ad-hoc basis, in part due to discrepancies in data availability in different regions but also the lack of comprehensive, coordinated efforts. To provide greater utility to vital policy questions, insights from EEA need to be integrated into a wider system for documenting past events and understanding drivers of change.</p><p>In accordance with this, we propose a standardised framework for recording historical extreme weather events in an inventory structure. In our method, existing hazard-loss databases such as EMDAT provide a basis for event selection and give some basic impact details. Then, additional impact information, as well as detail about the process chain leading from antecedent conditions to impacts (the ‘event narrative’), is researched from a range of academic, government and NGO sources. Finally, existing attribution literature provides the link, or lack thereof, to human climate change. The comprehensive nature of such an inventory will align with the remit of the global stocktaking process, and offers a new and valuable perspective for understanding and adapting to changing risks at both national and sub-national scales.</p><p>To demonstrate the framework, we will here present inventories of past extreme weather events for the UK and the Caribbean in the period 2000-2019. Specifically, we will explore the logic and methodology behind the inventory framework, and use these examples to consider potential applications as well as foreseen drawbacks to the concept.</p>

scholarly journals Challenges to Understanding Extreme Weather Changes in Lower Income Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (10) ◽  
pp. E1851-E1860
Author(s):  
Friederike E. L. Otto ◽  
Luke Harrington ◽  
Katharina Schmitt ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
Lower Income Countries

AbstractThe science of event attribution has emerged to routinely answer the question whether and to what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of recently observed extreme weather events. In Europe a pilot program to operationalize the method started in November 2019, highlighting the demand for timely information on the role of climate change when it is needed most: in the direct aftermath of an extreme event. Independent of whether studies are provided operationally or as academic studies, the necessity of good observational data and well-verified climate models imply most attributions are currently made for highly developed countries only. Current attribution assessments therefore provide very little information about those events and regions where the largest damages and socio-economic losses are incurred. Arguably, these larger damages signify a much greater need for information on how the likelihood and intensity of such high-impact events have been changing and are likely to change in a warmer world. In short, why do we not focus event attribution research efforts on the whole world, and particularly events in the developing world? The reasons are not just societal and political but also scientific. We simply cannot attribute these events in the same probabilistic framework employed in most studies today. We outline six focus areas to lessen these barriers, but we will not overcome them in the near future.

scholarly journals BUILDING UP RESILIENC E OF CONSTRUCTION SECTOR SMES AND THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 362-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gayan Wedawatta ◽  
Bingunath Ingirige ◽  
Dilanthi Amaratunga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Coping Capacity ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Uk

Wider scientific community now accept that the threat of climate change as real and thus acknowledge the importance of implementing adaptation measures in a global context. In the UK, the physical effects of climate change are likely to be directly felt in the form of extreme weather events, which are predicted to escalate in number and severity in future under the changing climatic conditions. Construction industry; which consists of supply chains running across various other industries, economies and regions, will also be affected due to these events. Thus, it is important that the construction organisations are well prepared to withstand the effects of extreme weather events not only directly affecting their organizations but also affecting their supply chains which in turn might affect the organisation concerned. Given the fact that more than 99% of construction sector businesses are SMEs, the area can benefit significantly from policy making to improve SME resilience and coping capacity. This paper presents the literature review and synthesis of a doctoral research study undertaken to address the issue of extreme weather resilience of construction sector SMEs and their supply chains. The main contribution of the paper to both academia and practitioners is a synthesis model that conceptualises the factors that enhances resilience of SMEs and their supply chains against extreme weather events. This synthesis model forms the basis of a decision making framework that will enable SMEs to both reduce their vulnerability and enhance their coping capacity against extreme weather. The value of this paper is further extended by the overall research design that is set forth as the way forward. Santruka Gana daug mokslininku jau sutinka, kad klimato kaitos gresme yra reali, taigi pripažista, kaip pasauliniame kontekste svarbu diegti prisitaikymo priemones. Tiketina, kad Jungtineje Karalysteje fizinis klimato kaitos poveikis bus tiesiogiai jaučiamas per ekstremalius meteorologinius reiškinius. Prognozuojama, kad kintant klimato salygoms ju skaičius ir intensyvumas ateityje dides. Tokie reiškiniai paveiks ir statybu pramone, kuria sudaro per kitas ivairiausias pramones šakas, ūkius ir regionus einančios tiekimo grandines. Taigi svarbu, kad statybu organizacijos būtu tinkamai pasiruošusios atlaikyti ekstremalius meteorologinius reiškinius, kurie daro tiesiogine itaka ne tik šioms organizacijoms, bet ir ju tiekimo grandinems, kurios savo ruožtu gali paveikti atitinkama organizacija. Daugiau kaip 99 proc. statybu sektoriuje veikiančiu imoniu priklauso SVV kategorijai, tad šiai sričiai išties praverstu politika, gerinanti SVV atsparuma ir gebejima susitvarkyti. Šiame darbe pateikiama literatūros apžvalga ir trumpai pristatomas daktaro disertacijos tyrimas, kuriuo siekta išnagrineti statybu sektoriaus SVV ir ju tiekimo grandiniu atsparuma ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Pagrindinis darbo indelis, pravartus ir mokslininkams, ir praktikams, tai sintezes modelis, kuriame suformuluojami veiksniai, didinantys SVV ir ju tiekimo grandiniu atsparuma ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Šis sintezes modelis yra sprendimu priemimo sistemos pagrindas, o sistema SVV leis ne tik mažinti pažeidžiamuma, bet ir didinti gebejima susitvarkyti esant ekstremaliems meteorologiniams reiškiniams. Šio darbo verte dar labiau padidina bendras tyrimo modelis, pateikiamas kaip žingsnis pirmyn.

scholarly journals Co-creation processes of nature based solutions in hydrological modelling – case studies in the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borjana Bogatinoska ◽  
Angelique Lansu ◽  
Judith Floor ◽  
Dave Huitema ◽  
Stefan Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling Process

<p>Climate adaptation of brook catchments is much needed in the studied regions of England, Belgium and the Netherlands. With the continuous rise of global temperatures and global change, these regions suffer from the impacts of extreme weather events such as drought and flooding. Extreme weather and climate change impacts are spatially non-uniform, uncertain and can have different strengths at local and regional level. Therefore, cities and regions need to adapt to climate change in an ambiguous way. Accordingly, there is no uniformity in the adaptive capacity of individuals, groups within society, organisations and governments or how they can respond to current and future climate change impacts.</p><p>To better understand the interlinkages in nature-based climate adaptation between the socio-economic and climate change drivers, we studied these drivers in the hydrological modelling in 3 pilot studies in the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium. Focus is on how co-creation, defined as active participation is incorporated in the hydrological modelling process, (1) within each brook catchment and (2) between the professionals, as cross border knowledge transfer. Data on the co-creation process was collected with workshops on each of the semi-annual partner meetings of each catchment. Data on the modelling process was collected by semi-structured interviews of the professionals and by using assessment of professional learning in the network (field trips). Findings on co-creation processes of nature based solutions in hydrological modelling will be compared in the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium. In the end, existing co-creation processes will be joined to a framework for co-creation which can be improved and adapted based on the gathered data. This would include: identification of stakeholder groups and their needs, the level of intended participation, the identified climate problem by the stakeholders and by the policy-makers, the planned modelling approach, the NbS etc.</p><p>Keywords: climate change, hydrology, nature-based solutions, stakeholders, climate adaptation, framework.</p>

scholarly journals Media Representation of Extreme Event Attribution: A Case Study of the 2011–17 California Drought

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 847-862 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon Osaka ◽  
James Painter ◽  
Peter Walton ◽  
Abby Halperin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Media Representation ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
The Media

AbstractExtreme event attribution (EEA) is a relatively new branch of climate science combining weather observations and modeling to assess and quantify whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered extreme weather events (such as heat waves, droughts, and floods). Such weather events are frequently depicted in the media, which enhances the potential of EEA coverage to serve as a tool to communicate on-the-ground climate impacts to the general public. However, few academic papers have systematically analyzed EEA’s media representation. This paper helps to fill this literature gap through a comprehensive analysis of media coverage of the 2011–17 California drought, with specific attention to the types of attribution and uncertainty represented. Results from an analysis of five U.S. media outlets between 2014 and 2015 indicate that the connection between the drought and climate change was covered widely in both local and national news. However, legitimate differences in the methods underpinning the attribution studies performed by different researchers often resulted in a frame of scientific uncertainty or disagreement in the media coverage. While this case study shows substantial media interest in attribution science, it also raises important challenges for scientists and others communicating the results of multiple attribution studies via the media.

Gender differences in the climate change communication on Twitter

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 811-828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Holmberg ◽  
Iina Hellsten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Gender Differences ◽  
News Media ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
Local Campaigns ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a study about gender differences in the climate change communication on Twitter and in the use of affordances on Twitter. Design/methodology/approach – The data set consists of about 250,000 tweets and retweets for which the authors’ gender was identified. While content of tweets and hashtags used were analysed for common topics and specific contexts, the usernames that were proportionately more frequently mentioned by either male or female tweeters were coded according to the usernames’ stance in the climate change debate into convinced (that climate change is caused by humans), sceptics, neutrals and unclear groups, and according to the type or role of the user account (e.g. campaign, organization, private person). Findings – The results indicate that overall male and female tweeters use very similar language in their tweets, but clear differences were observed in the use of hashtags and usernames, with female tweeters mentioning significantly more campaigns and organizations with a convinced attitude towards anthropogenic impact on climate change, while male tweeters mention significantly more private persons and usernames with a sceptical stance. The differences were even greater when retweets and duplicate tweets by the same author were removed from the data, indicating how retweeting can significantly influence the results. Practical implications – On a theoretical level the results increase the understanding for how women and men view and engage with climate change. This has practical implications for organizations interested in developing communication strategies for reaching and engaging female and male audiences on Twitter. While female tweeters can be targeted via local campaigns and news media, male tweeters seem to follow more political and scientific information. The results from the present research also showed that more research about the meaning of retweeting is needed, as the authors have shown how retweets can have a significant impact on the results. Originality/value – The findings contribute towards increased understanding of both gender differences in the climate change debate and in social media use in general. Beyond that this research showed how retweeting may have a significant impact on research where tweets are used as a data source.

scholarly journals An IPCC that listens: introducing reciprocity to climate change communication

2021 ◽  
Vol 168 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl Dudman ◽  
Sara de Wit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
The Public ◽  
Scientific Authority ◽  
Human Voice ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
Reliable Knowledge

AbstractAs the epistemic hand in the UNFCCC’S political glove, the IPCC is charged with furnishing the global dialogues with ‘reliable knowledge’ on climate change. Much has been written about how this body of scientific information can be communicated more effectively to a diverse public, but considerably less so on the role communication might play in making the IPCC itself more receptive to alternative forms of contribution. Climate change communication remains centred on a unidirectional model that has helped climate science achieve greater public legibility, but so far not explored equivalent channels within institutional thinking for representing public and other non-scientific knowledges. Anticipating a new assessment report and major developments for the Paris Agreement, now is an opportunity to consider ambitious pathways to reciprocity in the IPCC’s communication strategy. Drawing on interdisciplinary insights from social science literatures, we argue that communication is not only inseparable from knowledge politics in the IPCC, but that communication activities and research may prove key avenues for making the IPCC more inclusive. Recognising climate communication as a developed field of study and practice with significant influence in the IPCC, we present a framework for categorising communicative activities into those which help the panel speak with a more human voice, and those that help it listen receptively to alternative forms of knowledge. The latter category especially invites communicators to decouple ‘epistemic authority’ from ‘scientific authority’, and so imagine new forms of expert contribution. This is critical to enabling active and equitable dialogue with underrepresented publics that democratises climate governance, and enhances the public legitimacy of the IPCC.

scholarly journals Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains like those of storm Desmond in the UK – an event attribution study in near-real time

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 13197-13216 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. J. van Oldenborgh ◽  
F. E. L. Otto ◽  
K. Haustein ◽  
H. Cullen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. On 4–6 December 2015, the storm "Desmond" caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and Scotland, which led to widespread flooding. Here we provide an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing northern England and southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis is based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agree that the effect of climate change is positive, making precipitation events like this about 40 % more likely, with a provisional 2.5–97.5 % confidence interval of 5–80 %.

scholarly journals Adaptation of Wetland Rice to Extreme Weather

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-77
Author(s):  
Dulbari Dulbari ◽  
Edi Santosa ◽  
Eko Sulistyono ◽  
Yonny Koesmaryono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Grain Filling ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Canopy Architecture ◽  
Weather Events

Climate change is believed to increase the intensity and the frequency of extreme weather events in reference to strong winds and heavy precipitations. The extreme event is defined as strong wind at speed of 50 km.h-1 and rain fall intensity 10 to 20 mm.h-1 or more .  This condition is detrimental to rice production as this may lead to lodging and flooding which normally occurs during the grain filling stage to harvesting resulting in lower yield and grain quality.  The. Simultaneous extreme events and critical rice growth occured more frequently due to increasing cropping season within a year in Indonesia. Therefore, it is important to mitigate and develop adaptation strategies in order to sustain rice production. Efforts to adapt to these extreme environmental conditions are mostly based on genetics and agro ecological approaches. Genetically, rice with strong hills, high aerodynamic with low water retention is desired. Agro-ecological manipulation is conducted through wind break application, planting arrangement to facilitate better sunshine penetration, to manage water level and planting calendar. Availability of weather station in the field is important to improve mitigation and continuous adaptation strategy against extreme weather events. Keywords: plant canopy architecture, climate change, heavy rainfall, lodging, strong wind

Climate Change Communication in Mexico

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Urbina-Soria ◽  
Karina Landeros-Mugica
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Media ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Social Representation ◽  
Communication Process ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
Forthcoming Article ◽  
Internet Portal ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
The Government

This is an advance summary of a forthcoming article in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. Please check back later for the full article. Mexico has always stood out as an active and committed participant at international meetings on climate change; it was one of the first countries to fulfill the mandates of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and has submitted five national communications. Furthermore, in the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) held in Cancun, Mexico, in 2011, the Mexican government proposed the creation of a Green Climate Fund (GCF), which was approved and is already operating. Interest in climate change has increased within political, economic, and environmental domains. In the past, most academic and social studies focused on knowledge, beliefs, perception, and social representation of climate change, and only a few of them spoke to the communication process. Moreover, most inquiries centered on the review of literature or descriptive studies for specific samples. Specifically on climate change communication research, there is still a lot to be done; only a few studies on the subject have been completed. Most of the publications show campaigns, workshops, or educational programs that aim to increase knowledge and improve understanding of climate change. The National Strategy on Climate Change along with the Special Program on Climate Change included two lines of action: a) risk perception research and divulgation, and b) risk communication and environmental education. However, it was not until 2006 that the government started to invest in campaigns about climate change, like an internet portal, chats and workshops, stories for kids, or guides for efficient use of household energy. By 2007 and 2008, attention came not only from scientists but also from society; this was due mainly to coverage of the topic in the mass media, along with several publications for specific audiences (children, young, adults, specialists, politicians, and stakeholders). From 2008 to 2014, climate change topics were introduced in educational and cultural programs for students, especially at elementary and high school levels. Also, several publications and videos were released for the general public. In 2015, the first dialog between journalists was held to emphasize the important roll that journalists have when they broadcast scientific information. Nowadays, politicians and stakeholders are the main actors on communicating climate change, leaving academics, journalists, and broadcasters aside. Concerning the main topics, threats and disasters dominate the headlines, while information about mitigation or adaptation are hardly mentioned. Around the world, as well as in Mexico, there is a new discourse focused on future perspectives, accountability, and social legacy instead of immediacy. Mexico has enough material and technological infrastructure: mass media, libraries, museums, communication technologies, among others. However, these have been underutilized, because mass media treatment of ecological subjects have been fugacious, irregular, and surviving, limiting their development and strengthening.

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