Making an informed use of observations and climate models to advance understanding of past and future sea ice changes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
François Massonnet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Big Picture ◽  
Assimilation Model ◽  
Major Progress

<p>Polar Regions are viewed by many as "observational deserts", as in-situ measurements there are indeed scarce relative to other regions. The increasing availability of satellite observations is salutary but does not entirely solve the problem due to persistent uncertainties in the derived products. Climate models have been instrumental in completing the big picture. However, models are themselves subject to errors, some of which are systematic. How to take advantage of the respective strengths of observations and models, while minimizing their respective weaknesses? To illustrate this point, I will discuss how recent advances in data assimilation, model evaluation, and numerical modeling have enabled major progress in tackling important questions in polar research, such as: What are the causes of the recent Antarctic sea ice variability? What might the future of Arctic sea ice look like? How to improve the skill of seasonal sea ice predictions? How should the existing observational network be improved at high latitudes? What are the priorities in terms of sea ice modeling for climate change studies? By running through these cases, I will provide evidence for the emerging hypothesis that "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts": treating observations and climate models as two noisy instances of the same, but unknown truth, gives insights that would not be possible if each source was used separately.</p>

Making informed use of observations and climate models to advance understanding of past and future sea ice changes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francois Massonnet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Big Picture ◽  
Assimilation Model

<p>Polar Regions are viewed by many as "observational deserts", as in-situ measurements there are indeed scarce relative to other regions. The increasing availability of satellite observations does not entirely solve the problem, due to persistent uncertainties in the derived products. Climate models have been instrumental in completing the big picture, but they are themselves subject to errors, some of which are systematic. How to take advantage of the respective strengths of observations and models, while minimizing their respective weaknesses?  To illustrate this point, I will discuss how recent advances in data assimilation, model evaluation, and numerical modeling have enabled progress on addressing important questions in polar research, such as: what are the causes of the recent Antarctic sea ice variability? What might the future of Arctic sea ice look like? How to improve the skill of seasonal sea ice predictions? How should the existing observational network be improved at high latitudes? What are the priorities in terms of modeling? By running through these cases, I will provide support for the emerging hypothesis that "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts": treating observations and climate models as two noisy instances of the same, unknown truth, gives access to answers that would not have been possible using each source separately.</p>

scholarly journals Observed Concentration Budgets of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (14) ◽  
pp. 5241-5249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R. Holland ◽  
Noriaki Kimura
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Melting ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Anthropogenic Contribution ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract In recent decades, Antarctic sea ice has expanded slightly while Arctic sea ice has contracted dramatically. The anthropogenic contribution to these changes cannot be fully assessed unless climate models are able to reproduce them. Process-based evaluation is needed to provide a clear view of the capabilities and limitations of such models. In this study, ice concentration and drift derived from AMSR-E data during 2003–10 are combined to derive a climatology of the ice concentration budget at both poles. This enables an observational decomposition of the seasonal dynamic and thermodynamic changes in ice cover. In both hemispheres, the results show spring ice loss dominated by ice melting. In other seasons ice divergence maintains freezing in the inner pack while advection causes melting at the ice edge, as ice is transported beyond the region where it is thermodynamically sustainable. Mechanical redistribution provides an important sink of ice concentration in the central Arctic and around the Antarctic coastline. This insight builds upon existing understanding of the sea ice cycle gained from ice and climate models, and the datasets may provide a valuable tool in validating such models in the future.

The relative roles of Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice loss in the response to greenhouse warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Hay ◽  
Paul Kusnher
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

<p>Antarctic sea ice has gradually increased in extent over the forty-year-long satellite record, in contrast with the clear decrease in sea-ice extent seen in the Arctic over the same time period. However, state-of-the-art climate models ubiquitously project Antarctic sea-ice to decrease over the coming century, much as they do for Arctic sea-ice. Several recent years have also seen record low Antarctic sea-ice. It is therefore of interest to understand what the climate response to Antarctic sea-ice loss will be. </p><p>We have carried out new fully coupled climate model simulations to assess the response to sea-ice loss in either hemisphere separately or coincidentally under different albedo parameter settings to determine the relative importance of each. By perturbing the albedo of the snow overlying the sea ice and the albedo of the bare sea ice, we obtain a suite of simulations to assess the linearity and additivity of sea-ice loss. We find the response to sea-ice loss in each hemisphere exhibits a high degree of additivity, and can simply be decomposed into responses due to loss in each hemisphere separately. We find that the response to Antarctic sea-ice loss exceeds that of Arctic sea-ice loss in the tropics, and that Antarctic sea-ice loss leads to statistically significant Arctic warming, while the opposite is not true.</p><p>With these new simulations and one in which CO<sub>2</sub> is instantaneously doubled , we can further characterize the response to sea-ice loss from each hemisphere using an extension to classical pattern scaling that includes three controlling parameters. This allows us to simultaneously compute the sensitivity patterns to Arctic sea-ice loss, Antarctic sea-ice loss, and to tropical warming. The statistically significant response to Antarctic sea-ice loss in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is found to be mediated by tropical warming and small amounts of Arctic sea-ice loss.</p>

scholarly journals Comparing and contrasting the behaviour of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice over the 35 year period 1979-2013

2015 ◽  
Vol 56 (69) ◽  
pp. 18-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Simmonds
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractWe examine the evolution of sea-ice extent (SIE) over both polar regions for 35 years from November 1978 to December 2013, as well as for the global total ice (Arctic plus Antarctic). Our examination confirms the ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice, and we find significant (p˂ 0.001) negative trends in all months, seasons and in the annual mean. The greatest rate of decrease occurs in September, and corresponds to a loss of 3 x 106 km2 over 35 years. The Antarctic shows positive trends in all seasons and for the annual mean (p˂0.01), with summer attaining a reduced significance (p˂0.10). Based on our longer record (which includes the remarkable year 2013) the positive Antarctic ice trends can no longer be considered ‘small’, and the positive trend in the annual mean of (15.29 ± 3.85) x 103 km2 a–1 is almost one-third of the magnitude of the Arctic annual mean decrease. The global annual mean SIE series exhibits a trend of (–35.29 ± 5.75) x 103 km2 a-1 (p<0.01). Finally we offer some thoughts as to why the SIE trends in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations differ from the observed Antarctic increases.

scholarly journals Sea Ice Trends in Climate Models Only Accurate in Runs with Biased Global Warming

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6265-6278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Rosenblum ◽  
Ian Eisenman
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat ◽  
The Antarctic

Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is a small subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to the observations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that the models are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulated internal climate variability is taken into account. Here sea ice changes during 1979–2013 are examined in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), drawing on previous work that found a close relationship in climate models between global-mean surface temperature and sea ice extent. All of the simulations with 1979–2013 Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observations are found to have considerably more global warming than observations during this time period. Using two separate methods to estimate the sea ice retreat that would occur under the observed level of global warming in each simulation in both ensembles, it is found that simulated Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observations would occur less than 1% of the time. This implies that the models are not consistent with the observations. In the Antarctic, simulated sea ice expansion as fast as observations is found to typically correspond with too little global warming, although these results are more equivocal. As a result, the simulations do not capture the observed asymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. This suggests that the models may be getting the right sea ice trends for the wrong reasons in both polar regions.

scholarly journals Observation-based selection of climate models projects Arctic ice-free summers around 2035

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Docquier ◽  
Torben Koenigk
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Area And Volume

AbstractArctic sea ice has been retreating at an accelerating pace over the past decades. Model projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be almost ice free in summer by the middle of this century. However, the uncertainties related to these projections are relatively large. Here we use 33 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and select models that best capture the observed Arctic sea-ice area and volume and northward ocean heat transport to refine model projections of Arctic sea ice. This model selection leads to lower Arctic sea-ice area and volume relative to the multi-model mean without model selection and summer ice-free conditions could occur as early as around 2035. These results highlight a potential underestimation of future Arctic sea-ice loss when including all CMIP6 models.

scholarly journals What Do Global Climate Models Tell Us about Future Arctic Sea Ice Coverage Changes?

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ge Peng ◽  
Jessica L. Matthews ◽  
Muyin Wang ◽  
Russell Vose ◽  
Liqiang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Ice Coverage ◽  
Arctic Sea

The prospect of an ice-free Arctic in our near future due to the rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice decline has brought about the urgent need for reliable projections of the first ice-free Arctic summer year (FIASY). Together with up-to-date observations and characterizations of Arctic ice state, they are essential to business strategic planning, climate adaptation, and risk mitigation. In this study, the monthly Arctic sea ice extents from 12 global climate models are utilized to obtain projected FIASYs and their dependency on different emission scenarios, as well as to examine the nature of the ice retreat projections. The average value of model-projected FIASYs is 2054/2042, with a spread of 74/42 years for the medium/high emission scenarios, respectively. The earliest FIASY is projected to occur in year 2023, which may not be realistic, for both scenarios. The sensitivity of individual climate models to scenarios in projecting FIASYs is very model-dependent. The nature of model-projected Arctic sea ice coverage changes is shown to be primarily linear. FIASY values predicted by six commonly used statistical models that were curve-fitted with the first 30 years of climate projections (2006–2035), on other hand, show a preferred range of 2030–2040, with a distinct peak at 2034 for both scenarios, which is more comparable with those from previous studies.

scholarly journals Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 1035-1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Tietsche ◽  
J. J. Day ◽  
V. Guemas ◽  
W. J. Hurlin ◽  
S. P. E. Keeley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea

scholarly journals Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Semenov ◽  
T. Martin ◽  
L. K. Behrens ◽  
M. Latif ◽  
E. S. Astafieva
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Cmip5 Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea
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