Likely and High-End Impacts of Regional Sea-Level Rise on the Shoreline Change of European Sandy Coasts Under a High Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Alexandra Toimil ◽  
Benoit Meyssignac ◽  
Iñigo Losada
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Shoreline Change ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
The North ◽  
Bruun Rule ◽  
Coastal Sea ◽  
To Come

<p>Sea-level rise (SLR) is a major concern for coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion in the decades to come. Lately, the value of high-end sea-level scenarios (HESs) to inform stakeholders with low-uncertainty tolerance has been increasingly recognized. Here, we provide high-end projections of SLR-induced sandy shoreline retreats for Europe by the end of the 21st century based on the conservative Bruun rule. Our HESs rely on the upper bound of the RCP8.5 scenario “likely-range” and on high-end estimates of the different components of sea-level projections provided in recent literature. For both HESs, SLR is projected to be higher than 1 m by 2100 for most European coasts. For the strongest HES, the maximum coastal sea-level change of 1.9 m is projected in the North Sea and Mediterranean areas. This translates into a median pan-European coastline retreat of 140 m for the moderate HES and into more than 200 m for the strongest HES. The magnitude and regional distribution of SLR-induced shoreline change projections, however, utterly depend on the local nearshore slope characteristics and the regional distribution of sea-level changes. For some countries, especially in Northern Europe, the impacts of high-end sea-level scenarios are disproportionally high compared to those of likely scenarios.</p>

scholarly journals Likely and High-End Impacts of Regional Sea-Level Rise on the Shoreline Change of European Sandy Coasts Under a High Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenario

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rémi Thiéblemont ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽  
Alexandra Toimil ◽  
Benoit Meyssignac ◽  
Iñigo J. Losada
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Shoreline Change ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
The North ◽  
Bruun Rule ◽  
Coastal Sea ◽  
To Come

Sea-level rise (SLR) is a major concern for coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion in the decades to come. Lately, the value of high-end sea-level scenarios (HESs) to inform stakeholders with low-uncertainty tolerance has been increasingly recognized. Here, we provide high-end projections of SLR-induced sandy shoreline retreats for Europe by the end of the 21st century based on the conservative Bruun rule. Our HESs rely on the upper bound of the RCP8.5 scenario “likely-range” and on high-end estimates of the different components of sea-level projections provided in recent literature. For both HESs, SLR is projected to be higher than 1 m by 2100 for most European coasts. For the strongest HES, the maximum coastal sea-level change of 1.9 m is projected in the North Sea and Mediterranean areas. This translates into a median pan-European coastline retreat of 140 m for the moderate HES and into more than 200 m for the strongest HES. The magnitude and regional distribution of SLR-induced shoreline change projections, however, utterly depend on the local nearshore slope characteristics and the regional distribution of sea-level changes. For some countries, especially in Northern Europe, the impacts of high-end sea-level scenarios are disproportionally high compared to those of likely scenarios.

scholarly journals Reinterpreting the Bruun Rule in the Context of Equilibrium Shoreline Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 974
Author(s):  
Maurizio D’Anna ◽  
Deborah Idier ◽  
Bruno Castelle ◽  
Sean Vitousek ◽  
Goneri Le Cozannet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Shoreline Change ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Bruun Rule ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Erosion Efficiency ◽  
Local Wave

Long-term (>decades) coastal recession due to sea-level rise (SLR) has been estimated using the Bruun Rule for nearly six decades. Equilibrium-based shoreline models have been shown to skillfully predict short-term wave-driven shoreline change on time scales of hours to decades. Both the Bruun Rule and equilibrium shoreline models rely on the equilibrium beach theory, which states that the beach profile shape equilibrates with its local wave and sea-level conditions. Integrating these two models into a unified framework can improve our understanding and predictive skill of future shoreline behavior. However, given that both models account for wave action, but over different time scales, a critical re-examination of the SLR-driven recession process is needed. We present a novel physical interpretation of the beach response to sea-level rise, identifying two main contributing processes: passive flooding and increased wave-driven erosion efficiency. Using this new concept, we analyze the integration of SLR-driven recession into equilibrium shoreline models and, with an idealized test case, show that the physical mechanisms underpinning the Bruun Rule are explicitly described within our integrated model. Finally, we discuss the possible advantages of integrating SLR-driven recession models within equilibrium-based models with dynamic feedbacks and the broader implications for coupling with hybrid shoreline models.

scholarly journals Annual Sea Level Changes on the North American Northeast Coast: Influence of Local Winds and Barotropic Motions

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (13) ◽  
pp. 4801-4816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Piecuch ◽  
Sönke Dangendorf ◽  
Rui M. Ponte ◽  
Marta Marcos
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Tide Gauge Records ◽  
Barotropic Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Ocean Reanalyses ◽  
Coastal Sea

Abstract Understanding the relationship between coastal sea level and the variable ocean circulation is crucial for interpreting tide gauge records and projecting sea level rise. In this study, annual sea level records (adjusted for the inverted barometer effect) from tide gauges along the North American northeast coast over 1980–2010 are compared to a set of data-assimilating ocean reanalysis products as well as a global barotropic model solution forced with wind stress and barometric pressure. Correspondence between models and data depends strongly on model and location. At sites north of Cape Hatteras, the barotropic model shows as much (if not more) skill than ocean reanalyses, explaining about 50% of the variance in the adjusted annual tide gauge sea level records. Additional numerical experiments show that annual sea level changes along this coast from the barotropic model are driven by local wind stress over the continental shelf and slope. This result is interpreted in the light of a simple dynamic framework, wherein bottom friction balances surface wind stress in the alongshore direction and geostrophy holds in the across-shore direction. Results highlight the importance of barotropic dynamics on coastal sea level changes on interannual and decadal time scales; they also have implications for diagnosing the uncertainties in current ocean reanalyses, using tide gauge records to infer past changes in ocean circulation, and identifying the physical mechanisms responsible for projected future regional sea level rise.

scholarly journals The Shoreline Deformation in Convex Beach due to Sea Level Rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 925 (1) ◽  
pp. 012050
Author(s):  
Ariviana Vilda ◽  
Lee Jung Lyul
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Shoreline Change ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Littoral Drift ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Bruun Rule ◽  
Depth Contour ◽  
Extreme Scale

Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) is become more serious on a global scale and has become one of the main reasons causes shoreline changes, and erosion, even on an extreme scale can cause the sinking of coastal areas and islands. It was recorded that many big cities were damaged by SLR. The Bruun rule is the most widely used method for predicting the horizontal translation of the shoreline associated with a given rise in sea level. In this study, however, the change in the average shoreline at the convex beach, which is more vulnerable to erosion due to sea level rise, is investigated. The increase in water depth by sea level rise causes a change in the wave crestline, ultimately leading to a linearization of the shoreline. In general, it is assumed that the annual average shoreline is parallel to the annual mean wave crestline. Moreover, assuming that the equilibrium depth contour is formed according to the crestline, the retreat of the shoreline is predicted. The shoreline change is indirectly predicted through the wave crestline deformation obtained from a wave model and this method is applied to the convex beach. Our result showed that for a convex beach with a length of 1 km has open ends with free littoral drift at both ends, the sea level rise of 1 m cause the erosion of 10 m in the protruding area, and the sea level rise of 2 m causes erosion of 23 m. However, if the convex beach is blocked at both ends, sea level rise of 1 m causes the erosion of 6.3 m in the convex area, but the shoreline advance of 3.8 m at both ends, and if the sea level rise of 2 m occurs, the erosion of 14.3 m can occur in the convex area and shoreline advance of 8.6 m can occur at both ends.

scholarly journals Ocean mass, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion largely explain US coast relative sea level rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. C. Harvey ◽  
B. D. Hamlington ◽  
T. Frederikse ◽  
R. S. Nerem ◽  
C. G. Piecuch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Ocean Mass ◽  
Coastal Sea ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level

AbstractRegional sea-level changes are caused by several physical processes that vary both in space and time. As a result of these processes, large regional departures from the long-term rate of global mean sea-level rise can occur. Identifying and understanding these processes at particular locations is the first step toward generating reliable projections and assisting in improved decision making. Here we quantify to what degree contemporary ocean mass change, sterodynamic effects, and vertical land motion influence sea-level rise observed by tide-gauge locations around the contiguous U.S. from 1993 to 2018. We are able to explain tide gauge-observed relative sea-level trends at 47 of 55 sampled locations. Locations where we cannot explain observed trends are potentially indicative of shortcomings in our coastal sea-level observational network or estimates of uncertainty.

scholarly journals Demystifying Sea Level Changes Along the New England Coast

Eos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terri Cook
Keyword(s):  
New England ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Causal Connection ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Coastal Sea

No direct causal connection exists between coastal sea level changes and the strength of the North Atlantic’s overturning circulation, according to new, longer-term observational records.

scholarly journals Transboundary geophysical mapping of geological elements and salinity distribution critical for the assessment of future sea water intrusion in response to sea level rise

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1845-1862 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Jørgensen ◽  
W. Scheer ◽  
S. Thomsen ◽  
T. O. Sonnenborg ◽  
K. Hinsby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Flow ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Preferential Flow ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Saline Water ◽  
Seismic Survey ◽  
Salinity Distribution ◽  
Geological Structures ◽  
The North

Abstract. Geophysical techniques are increasingly being used as tools for characterising the subsurface, and they are generally required to develop subsurface models that properly delineate the distribution of aquifers and aquitards, salt/freshwater interfaces, and geological structures that affect groundwater flow. In a study area covering 730 km2 across the border between Germany and Denmark, a combination of an airborne electromagnetic survey (performed with the SkyTEM system), a high-resolution seismic survey and borehole logging has been used in an integrated mapping of important geological, physical and chemical features of the subsurface. The spacing between flight lines is 200–250 m which gives a total of about 3200 line km. About 38 km of seismic lines have been collected. Faults bordering a graben structure, buried tunnel valleys, glaciotectonic thrust complexes, marine clay units, and sand aquifers are all examples of geological structures mapped by the geophysical data that control groundwater flow and to some extent hydrochemistry. Additionally, the data provide an excellent picture of the salinity distribution in the area and thus provide important information on the salt/freshwater boundary and the chemical status of groundwater. Although the westernmost part of the study area along the North Sea coast is saturated with saline water and the TEM data therefore are strongly influenced by the increased electrical conductivity there, buried valleys and other geological elements are still revealed. The mapped salinity distribution indicates preferential flow paths through and along specific geological structures within the area. The effects of a future sea level rise on the groundwater system and groundwater chemistry are discussed with special emphasis on the importance of knowing the existence, distribution and geometry of the mapped geological elements, and their control on the groundwater salinity distribution is assessed.

scholarly journals Development of Tools for Coastal Management in Google Earth Engine: Uncertainty Bathtub Model and Bruun Rule

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1424
Author(s):  
Lucas Terres de Lima ◽  
Sandra Fernández-Fernández ◽  
João Francisco Gonçalves ◽  
Luiz Magalhães Filho ◽  
Cristina Bernardes
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Management ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
Bruun Rule ◽  
Source Models ◽  
Google Earth Engine ◽  
Bathtub Model

Sea-level rise is a problem increasingly affecting coastal areas worldwide. The existence of free and open-source models to estimate the sea-level impact can contribute to improve coastal management. This study aims to develop and validate two different models to predict the sea-level rise impact supported by Google Earth Engine (GEE)—a cloud-based platform for planetary-scale environmental data analysis. The first model is a Bathtub Model based on the uncertainty of projections of the sea-level rise impact module of TerrSet—Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling System software. The validation process performed in the Rio Grande do Sul coastal plain (S Brazil) resulted in correlations from 0.75 to 1.00. The second model uses the Bruun rule formula implemented in GEE and can determine the coastline retreat of a profile by creatting a simple vector line from topo-bathymetric data. The model shows a very high correlation (0.97) with a classical Bruun rule study performed in the Aveiro coast (NW Portugal). Therefore, the achieved results disclose that the GEE platform is suitable to perform these analysis. The models developed have been openly shared, enabling the continuous improvement of the code by the scientific community.

scholarly journals Using Virtual Reality in Sea Level Rise Planning and Community Engagement—An Overview

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1142
Author(s):  
Juliano Calil ◽  
Geraldine Fauville ◽  
Anna Carolina Muller Queiroz ◽  
Kelly L. Leo ◽  
Alyssa G. Newton Mann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Virtual Reality ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Community Outreach ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Multidisciplinary Teams ◽  
Simple Task ◽  
Coastal Risks

As coastal communities around the globe contend with the impacts of climate change including coastal hazards such as sea level rise and more frequent coastal storms, educating stakeholders and the general public has become essential in order to adapt to and mitigate these risks. Communicating SLR and other coastal risks is not a simple task. First, SLR is a phenomenon that is abstract as it is physically distant from many people; second, the rise of the sea is a slow and temporally distant process which makes this issue psychologically distant from our everyday life. Virtual reality (VR) simulations may offer a way to overcome some of these challenges, enabling users to learn key principles related to climate change and coastal risks in an immersive, interactive, and safe learning environment. This article first presents the literature on environmental issues communication and engagement; second, it introduces VR technology evolution and expands the discussion on VR application for environmental literacy. We then provide an account of how three coastal communities have used VR experiences developed by multidisciplinary teams—including residents—to support communication and community outreach focused on SLR and discuss their implications.

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