Evaluating the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potential of large-scale aff-/reforestation and improved forest management in Norway

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Bright ◽  
Micky Allen ◽  
Clara Anton-Fernandez ◽  
Lise Dalsgaard ◽  
Stephanie Eisner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Net Zero

<p>As a carbon dioxide removal measure, the Norwegian government is currently considering a policy of large-scale planting of spruce (<em>Picea abies</em> (L) H. Karst) on non-forested lands (i.e., aff-/reforestation) and secondary forested lands dominated by early successional broadleaved tree species (i.e., improved forest management).  Given the need to achieve net zero emissions in the latter half of the 21<sup>st</sup> century in effort to limit the global mean temperature rise to “well below” 2 °C, the mitigation potential of such a policy is unclear given relatively slow tree growth rates in the region.  Further convoluting the picture is the magnitude and relevance of surface albedo changes linked to such projects, which typically counter the benefits of an enhanced forest CO<sub>2</sub> sink in high latitude regions.  Here, we carry out a rigorous empirical assessment of the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potential of large-scale aff-/reforestation (AR) and improved forest management (IFM) projects in Norway, taking into account transient developments in both terrestrial carbon sinks and surface albedo over the 21<sup>st</sup> century and beyond.  We find that surface albedo changes would likely play a negligible role in counteracting the carbon cycle benefit of tCDR, yet given slow forest growth rates in the region, meaningful tCDR benefits from AR and IFM projects would not be realized until the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, with maximum benefits occurring around 2150.  We estimate Norway’s total accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 and 2150 (including surface albedo changes) to be 447 (± 240) and 852 (± 295) Mt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq. at mean costs of US$ 29 (± 18) and US$ 26 (± 14) per ton CDR, respectively.  For perspective, the accumulated tCDR potential at 2100 represents around 8 years of Norway’s total current annual production-based (i.e., territorial) CO<sub>2</sub>-eq. emissions.</p>

Overshooting warming targets – temperature reversibility and implications for impacts, adaptation needs and near-term mitigation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner ◽  
Quentin Lejeune ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Thomas Gasser ◽  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Removal Technologies ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Limiting global mean temperature increase to politically agreed temperature limits such as the 1.5°C threshold in the Paris Agreement becomes increasingly challenging. This has given rise to a class of overshoot emissions pathways in the mitigation literature that limit warming to such thresholds only after allowing for a temporary overshoot. However, substantial biogeophysical uncertainties remain regarding the large-scale deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal technologies required to potentially reverse global warming. Additionally, beyond global mean temperature very little is known about the benefits of declining temperatures on impacts and adaptation needs. Here we will provide an overview of the current state of understanding regarding the reversibility of global warming, as well as impacts and adaptation needs under overshoot pathways.</p><p>We highlight the characteristics of the overshoot scenarios from the literature, and especially those that are compatible with identified sustainability limits for Carbon Dioxide Removal deployment. We will compare those characteristics with uncertainties arising from the Earth System’s response which may complicate the efforts to achieve a decrease in Global Mean Temperature after peak warming is reached. This part will include latest results of the permafrost carbon feedback under stylized overshoot scenarios. Eventually, we will summarise the state-of-the-art knowledge and present new results regarding the impacts of overshoot scenarios for non-linear and time-lagged responses such as sea-level rise, permafrost and glaciers. This will allow for a preliminary assessment of the impact and adaptation benefits of early mitigation compatible with a no or low overshoot pathways.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluating the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential of improved forest management and accelerated forest conversion in Norway

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 5087-5105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan M. Bright ◽  
Micky Allen ◽  
Clara Antón‐Fernández ◽  
Helmer Belbo ◽  
Lise Dalsgaard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Forest Conversion ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon

scholarly journals The Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal in Net-zero Emissions Pledges

2021 ◽  
pp. 100043
Author(s):  
Gokul Iyer ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
Jae Edmonds ◽  
Allen Fawcett ◽  
Jay Fuhrman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Net Zero

scholarly journals Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 783-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Heck ◽  
Jonathan F. Donges ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Planetary Boundaries ◽  
Climate Engineering ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon

Abstract. The planetary boundaries framework provides guidelines for defining thresholds in environmental variables. Their transgression is likely to result in a shift in Earth system functioning away from the relatively stable Holocene state. As the climate system is approaching critical thresholds of atmospheric carbon, several climate engineering methods are discussed, aiming at a reduction of atmospheric carbon concentrations to control the Earth's energy balance. Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage are part of most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We analyse the co-evolutionary interaction of societal interventions via tCDR and the natural dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle. Applying a conceptual modelling framework, we analyse how the degree of anticipation of the climate problem and the intensity of tCDR efforts with the aim of staying within a "safe" level of global warming might influence the state of the Earth system with respect to other carbon-related planetary boundaries. Within the scope of our approach, we show that societal management of atmospheric carbon via tCDR can lead to a collateral transgression of the planetary boundary of land system change. Our analysis indicates that the opportunities to remain in a desirable region within carbon-related planetary boundaries only exist for a small range of anticipation levels and depend critically on the underlying emission pathway. While tCDR has the potential to ensure the Earth system's persistence within a carbon-safe operating space under low-emission pathways, it is unlikely to succeed in a business-as-usual scenario.

Large-scale patterns in forest growth rates are mainly driven by climatic variables and stand characteristics

2019 ◽  
Vol 435 ◽  
pp. 120-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Kelin Wang ◽  
Zhaoxia Zeng ◽  
Hu Du ◽  
Zhigang Zou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Stand Characteristics

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on drought-prone forests in western Canada

2005 ◽  
Vol 81 (5) ◽  
pp. 675-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.H. (Ted) Hogg ◽  
Pierre Y Bernier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Early Detection ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Key Words Climate Change

From a climate change perspective, much of the recent international focus on forests has been on their role in taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. The question of climate change impacts on forest productivity is also emerging as a critical issue, especially in drought-prone regions such as the western Canadian interior. Because of the complexity of interacting factors, there is uncertainty even in predicting the direction of change in the productivity of Canada's forests as a whole over the next century. In the most climatically vulnerable regions, however, successful adaptation may require more innovative approaches to forest management, coupled with an enhanced capacity for early detection of large-scale changes in forest productivity, dieback and regeneration. Key words: climate change, boreal forest, productivity, drought, impacts, adaptation

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on global vegetation and climate

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1761-1771 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.-O. Brault ◽  
L. A. Mysak ◽  
H. D. Matthews ◽  
C. T. Simmons
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Pleistocene Climate ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The end of the Pleistocene was a turning point for the Earth system as climate gradually emerged from millennia of severe glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere. The deglacial climate change coincided with an unprecedented decline in many species of Pleistocene megafauna, including the near-total eradication of the woolly mammoth. Due to an herbivorous diet that presumably involved large-scale tree grazing, the mammoth extinction has been associated with the rapid expansion of dwarf deciduous trees in Siberia and Beringia, thus potentially contributing to the changing climate of the period. In this study, we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) to simulate the possible effects of these extinctions on climate during the latest deglacial period. We have explored various hypothetical scenarios of forest expansion in the northern high latitudes, quantifying the biogeophysical effects in terms of changes in surface albedo and air temperature. These scenarios include a Maximum Impact Scenario (MIS) which simulates the greatest possible post-extinction reforestation in the model, and sensitivity tests which investigate the timing of extinction, the fraction of trees grazed by mammoths, and the southern extent of mammoth habitats. We also show the results of a simulation with free atmospheric CO2-carbon cycle interactions. For the MIS, we obtained a surface albedo increase and global warming of 0.006 and 0.175 °C, respectively. Less extreme scenarios produced smaller global mean temperature changes, though local warming in some locations exceeded 0.3 °C even in the more realistic extinction scenarios. In the free CO2 simulation, the biogeophysical-induced warming was amplified by a biogeochemical effect, whereby the replacement of high-latitude tundra with shrub forest led to a release of soil carbon to the atmosphere and a small atmospheric CO2 increase. Overall, our results suggest the potential for a small, though non-trivial, effect of megafaunal extinctions on Pleistocene climate.

scholarly journals Towards net zero CO2 emissions without relying on massive carbon dioxide removal

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1739-1743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoichi Kaya ◽  
Mitsutsune Yamaguchi ◽  
Oliver Geden
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Net Zero

Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: The Problem of Phasedown

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 70-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward A. Parson ◽  
Holly J. Buck
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Removal ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Cost Structures ◽  
Business Environments ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Lock In ◽  
Procurement Contracts

Most scenarios that achieve present climate targets of limiting global heating to 1.5°–2.0°C rely on large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to drive net emissions negative after mid-century. Scenarios that overshoot and return to a future temperature target, or that aim to restore some prior climate, require CDR to be rapidly deployed, operated for a century or so, then greatly reduced or phased out. This need for future phasedown presents challenges to near-term policies that have been underexamined. A CDR enterprise of climate-relevant scale will require financial flows of billions to trillions of dollars per year. The enterprise and supporting policies will create risks of lock-in via mobilized actors whose interests favor continuance as well as other mechanisms. The future phasedown need implies suggestive guidance for near-term decisions about removal methods and design of associated policy and business environments. First, variation among methods’ scale constraints and cost structures suggests a rough ordering of methods by severity of future phasedown challenges. Second, of the three potential means to motivate removals—profitable products incorporating removed carbon, extended emissions-pricing policies, or public procurement contracts—public procurement appears to present the fewest roadblocks to future phasedown.

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