scholarly journals RCP 8.5 Ghana. High-end climate change impacts on crop production

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Tramberend ◽  
Günther Fischer ◽  
Harrij van Velthuizen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan

<p>Climate change threatens vulnerable communities in sub-Saharan Africa who face significant challenges for adaptation. Agriculture provides the livelihood for the majority of population. High-resolution assessments of the effects of climate change on crop production are urgently needed for targeted adaptation planning. In Ghana, next to food needs, agriculture plays an important role on international cocoa markets. To this end, we develop and apply a National Agro-Ecological Zoning system (NAEZ Ghana) to analyze the impacts of high-end (RCP8.5) global warming on agricultural production potentials until the end of this century. NAEZ Ghana uses an ensemble of the CORDEX Africa Regional Climate Model, a regional soil map, to assess development trends of crop production potentials for 19 main crops. Results highlight differential impacts across the country. Especially due to the significant increase in the number of days exceeding high-temperature thresholds, rain-fed production of several food and export crops could be reduced significantly compared to the historical 30-year average (1981-2010). Plantain production, an important food crop, could achieve under climate change less than half of its current potential already in the 2050s and less than 10% by the 2080s. Suitable areas for cocoa production decrease strongly resulting in only one third of production potential compared to today. Other crops with detrimental effects of climate change include oil palm, sugarcane, coffee, and rubber. Production of maize, sorghum, and millet cope well with a future warmer climate. The NAEZ Ghana database provides valuable high-resolution information to support agricultural sector development planning and climate change adaptation strategies. The expansion of irrigation development will play a central role in some areas. This requires further research on Ghana’s linkages between food, water, and energy, taking into account climate and socio-economic changes.</p>

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1585-1600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivia Serdeczny ◽  
Sophie Adams ◽  
Florent Baarsch ◽  
Dim Coumou ◽  
Alexander Robinson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Physical Changes

Future humidity extremes in an urban-rural context - using regional climate model projections down to convection permitting scales for Berlin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaby S. Langendijk ◽  
Diana Rechid ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Urban Rural

<p>Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. A transition towards sustainable and climate-resilient urban areas is relying heavily on useful, evidence-based climate information on urban scales. However, current climate data and information produced by urban or climate models are either not scale compliant for cities, or do not cover essential parameters and/or urban-rural interactions under climate change conditions. Furthermore, although e.g. the urban heat island may be better understood, other phenomena, such as moisture change, are little researched. Our research shows the potential of regional climate models, within the EURO-CORDEX framework, to provide climate projections and information on urban scales for 11km and 3km grid size. The city of Berlin is taken as a case-study. The results on the 11km spatial scale show that the regional climate models simulate a distinct difference between Berlin and its surroundings for temperature and humidity related variables. There is an increase in urban dry island conditions in Berlin towards the end of the 21st century. To gain a more detailed understanding of climate change impacts, extreme weather conditions were investigated under a 2°C global warming and further downscaled to the 3km scale. This enables the exploration of differences of the meteorological processes between the 11km and 3km scales, and the implications for urban areas and its surroundings. The overall study shows the potential of regional climate models to provide climate change information on urban scales.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change and variability: a review of what is known and ought to be known for Uganda

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 752-771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Wasswa Nsubuga ◽  
Hannes Rautenbach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Recent Climate

Purpose In view of the consensus that climate change is happening, scientists have documented several findings about Uganda’s recent climate, as well as its variability and change. The purpose of this study is to review what has been documented, thus it gives an overview of what is known and seeks to explain the implications of a changing climate, hence what ought to be known to create a climate resilient environment. Design/methodology/approach Terms such as “climate”, “climate change” and “climate variability” were identified in recent peer-reviewed published literature to find recent climate-related literature on Uganda. Findings from independent researchers and consultants are incorporated. Data obtained from rainfall and temperature observations and from COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CCLM CORDEX) data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used to generate spatial maps, seasonal outputs and projections using GrADS 2.02 and Geographic Information System (GIS) software for visualization. Findings The climate of Uganda is tropical in nature and influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), varied relief, geo-location and inland lakes, among other factors. The impacts of severe weather and climate trends and variability have been documented substantially in the past 20-30 years. Most studies indicated a rainfall decline. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are on the rise, while projections indicate a decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature both in the near and far future. The implication of these changes on society and the economy are discussed herein. Cost of inaction is expected to become huge, given factors like, the growing rate of the population and the slow expanding economy experienced in Uganda. Varied forms of adaptation to the impacts of climate change are being implemented, especially in the agricultural sector and at house hold level, though not systematically. Originality/value This review of scientific research findings aims to create a better understanding of the recent climate change and variability in Uganda and provides a baseline of summarized information for use in future research and actions.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on crop suitability in sub-Saharan Africa in parameterized and convection-permitting regional climate models

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 094086
Author(s):  
Sarah Chapman ◽  
Cathryn E Birch ◽  
Edward Pope ◽  
Susannah Sallu ◽  
Catherine Bradshaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Crop Suitability ◽  
Sub Saharan

Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub‐Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 2505-2517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Müller ◽  
Katharina Waha ◽  
Alberte Bondeau ◽  
Jens Heinke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan

A new approach for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inne Vanderkelen ◽  
Jakob Zschleischler ◽  
Lukas Gudmundsson ◽  
Klaus Keuler ◽  
Francois Rineau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future, preserving the co-variances between variables and the projected changes in variability. Here we present a new experimental design for studying climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron Experiment. The new methodology consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean temperature anomalies and uses data derived from the best available regional climate model (RCM) projection. We first identified the best performing regional climate model (RCM) simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European Domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble with a 0.11° (12.5 km) resolution based on two criteria: (i) highest skill of the simulations compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. Our results reveal that no single RCM simulation has the best score for all possible combinations of the four meteorological variables and evaluation metrics considered. Out of the six best performing simulations, we selected the simulation with the lowest bias for precipitation (CCLM4-8-17/EC-EARTH), as this variable is key to ecosystem functioning and model simulations deviated the most for this variable, with values ranging up to double the observed values. The time window is subsequently selected from the RCM projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean temperature of the driving Global Climate Model (GCM). The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the RCM projections of the five-year period spanning the year in which the global mean temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The gradient approach will allow to identify possible threshold and tipping points.

Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussain Alsarraf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Impact

<p>The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on the changes on summer surface temperatures between present (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) over the Arabian Peninsula and Kuwait. In this study, the influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula and especially in Kuwait was investigated by high resolution (36, 12, and 4 km grid spacing) dynamic downscaling from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4 using the WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP model outputs with the observational data. The global climate change dynamic downscaling model was run using WRF regional climate model simulations (2000-2010) and future projections (2050-2060). The influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula can be projected from the differences between the two period’s model simulations. The regional model simulations of the average maximum surface temperature in summertime predicted an increase from 1◦C to 3 ◦C over the summertime in Kuwait by midcentury.</p><p><strong> </strong></p>

scholarly journals Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 1188-1195 ◽  
Author(s):  
XueJie Gao ◽  
Ying Shi ◽  
DongFeng Zhang ◽  
Filippo Giorgi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate
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