Trends in intra-seasonal temperature variability in Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomas Krauskopf
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Individual Variability ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Change In Mean

<p>While long-term changes in measures of central tendency of climate elements, i. e. mean temperature, are well acknowledged, studies of trends in measures of their variability are much less common. This is despite the fact that trends in variability can have higher effect on climate extremes than trends in mean. Here, three measures of intra-seasonal variability are examined: 1) standard deviation of mean daily temperature 2) mean absolute value of day-to-day temperature change, 3) the range between the 90th and 10th quantile of mean daily temperature. ECA&D daily data from 180 stations and linear regression method are utilized to calculate trends of these characteristics in period from 1961 to 2012. Spatial distribution of trends in individual variability characteristics in Europe together with long-term change in mean and autocorrelation of mean temperature are demonstrated in maps. Significant trends (positive and negative) in all examined variability characteristics were found with substantial differences between seasons as well as between regions. On this basis, Europe is divided into 6 regions and trends are assessed in each reagion separately. While the most significant decrease in variability is observed in Northern Scandinavia and Iceland in winter, the most substantial increase is detected in Central and Western Europe in spring. Our results are accompanied by comparing the probability density function of daily temperature between periods 1961 – 1986 and 1987 – 2012 in each region showing how the shape of distribution of daily temperature has changed and if it could affect the changing number and value of temperature extremes.</p>

scholarly journals Seasonal temperature variability and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: a population-based cohort study

Thorax ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 73 (10) ◽  
pp. 951-958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shengzhi Sun ◽  
Francine Laden ◽  
Jaime E Hart ◽  
Hong Qiu ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Emergency Hospital ◽  
Emergency Hospital Admissions ◽  
Mean Temperature

BackgroundClimate change increases global mean temperature and changes short-term (eg, diurnal) and long-term (eg, intraseasonal) temperature variability. Numerous studies have shown that mean temperature and short-term temperature variability are both associated with increased respiratory morbidity or mortality. However, data on the impact of long-term temperature variability are sparse.ObjectiveWe aimed to assess the association of intraseasonal temperature variability with respiratory disease hospitalisations among elders.MethodsWe ascertained the first occurrence of emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in a prospective Chinese elderly cohort of 66 820 older people (≥65 years) with 10–13 years of follow-up. We used an ordinary kriging method based on 22 weather monitoring stations in Hong Kong to spatially interpolate daily ambient temperature for each participant’s residential address. Seasonal temperature variability was defined as the SD of daily mean summer (June–August) or winter (December–February) temperatures. We applied Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying exposure of seasonal temperature variability to respiratory admissions.ResultsDuring the follow-up time, we ascertained 12 689 cases of incident respiratory diseases, of which 6672 were pneumonia and 3075 were COPD. The HRs per 1°C increase in wintertime temperature variability were 1.20 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.32), 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31) and 1.41 (1.15 to 1.71) for total respiratory diseases, pneumonia and COPD, respectively. The associations were not statistically significant for summertime temperature variability.ConclusionWintertime temperature variability was associated with higher risk of incident respiratory diseases.

A Significant Bias of Tmax and Tmin Average Temperature and Its Trend

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (10) ◽  
pp. 2235-2246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulian Liu ◽  
Guoyu Ren ◽  
Hengyuan Kang ◽  
Xiubao Sun
Keyword(s):  
Arid Region ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Autumn And Winter

AbstractThe systematic bias of the estimated average temperature using daily Tmax and Tmin records relative to the standard average temperature of four time-equidistant observations and its effect on the estimated trend of long-term temperature change have not been well understood. This paper attempts to evaluate the systematic bias across mainland China using the daily data of national observational stations. The results revealed that the positive bias of annual mean temperature was large, reaching 0.58°C nationally on average; regional average bias was lowest in the northwest arid region and highest in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau; the bias was low in spring and summer and high in autumn and winter, reaching its lowest point in mid- and late May and highest point in early November. Furthermore, the bias showed a significant upward trend in the past 50 years, with a rising rate of 0.021°C (10 yr)−1, accounting for about 12% of the overall warming as estimated from the data of the observational network; the largest positive trend bias was found in the northwest arid region, while the east monsoon region experienced the smallest change; the most remarkable increase of the bias occurred after early 1990s. These results indicate that the customarily applied method to calculate daily and monthly mean temperature using Tmax and Tmin significantly overestimates the climatological mean and the long-term trend of surface air temperature in mainland China.

An Assessment of Long-Term Temperature Variability in the Sierra de Guadarrama (Spain)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Vegas Cañas ◽  
J. Fidel González Rouco ◽  
Jorge Navarro Montesinos ◽  
Etor E. Lucio Eceiza ◽  
Elena García Bustamante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Highly Correlated

<p>This work provides a first assessment of temperature variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales in the Sierra de Guadarrama, located in central Spain, from observations and regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Observational data are provided by the Guadarrama Monitoring Network (GuMNet; www.ucm.es/gumnet) at higher altitudes and by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMet) at lower sites. An experiment at high horizontal resolution of 1 km using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) RCM, feeding from ERA Interim inputs, is used. Through model-data comparison, it is shown that the simulations are annually and seasonally highly representative of the observations, although there is a tendency in the model to underestimate observational temperatures, mostly at low altitudes. Results show that WRF provides an added value in relation to the reanalysis, with improved correlation and error metrics relative to observations.</p><p>The analysis of long term trends shows no significant temperature trends in the area during the last 20 years. However, when spanning the analysis to the whole observational period, back to the beginning of the 20th century at some sites, significant annual and seasonal temperature increases of ca. 1degC/century develop, most of it happening during de 1970s.</p><p>The temporal variability of temperature anomalies in the Sierra de Guadarrama is highly correlated with the temperatures in the interior of the Iberian Peninsula. This relationship can be extended broadly over south-western Europe.</p>

scholarly journals Long‐term variability and trends in meteorological droughts in Western Europe (1851–2018)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano ◽  
Fernando Domínguez‐Castro ◽  
Conor Murphy ◽  
Jamie Hannaford ◽  
Fergus Reig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

The Impact of Personality Disorders on Longitudinal Change in Relationship Satisfaction in Long-Term Married Couples

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 439-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan C. South ◽  
Michael J. Boudreaux ◽  
Thomas F. Oltmanns
Keyword(s):  
Marital Satisfaction ◽  
Relationship Satisfaction ◽  
Personality Disorders ◽  
Married Couples ◽  
Structured Interview ◽  
Individual Variability ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Longitudinal Change ◽  
The Impact

Personality disorders (PDs) are significantly, negatively related to marital satisfaction. We examine how maladaptive personality is related to change in marital satisfaction over time utilizing data from the St. Louis Personality and Aging Network (SPAN), a longitudinal, community-based study of personality and health in older adults. Participants were assessed at baseline for PD (self-report, informant-report, and structured interview); self- and spouse-reported relationship satisfaction assessed at baseline and five follow-ups was analyzed with latent growth curve modeling. Higher levels of PD at baseline were associated with lower self and spouse relationship satisfaction at baseline. On average, satisfaction did not change significantly over the study period, but there was significant individual variability. Higher levels of schizoid PD were protective of declines in partner's perception of satisfaction. Findings suggest that partners in long-term married unions may have adapted to the presence of their own or their spouse's level of personality pathology.

scholarly journals Global structure and long-term variations of zonal mean temperature observed by TIMED/SABER

2007 ◽  
Vol 112 (D24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyao Xu ◽  
A. K. Smith ◽  
W. Yuan ◽  
H.-L. Liu ◽  
Qian Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Structure ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Long Term Variations

scholarly journals Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Temperature Extremes in South America 1960–2000

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 5011-5023 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. A. Vincent ◽  
T. C. Peterson ◽  
V. R. Barros ◽  
M. B. Marino ◽  
M. Rusticucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maceió, Brazil, in August 2004. Scientists from eight southern countries brought daily climatological data from their region for a meticulous assessment of data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices that can be used for analyses of changes in climate extremes. This study presents an examination of the trends over 1960–2000 in the indices of daily temperature extremes. The results indicate no consistent changes in the indices based on daily maximum temperature while significant trends were found in the indices based on daily minimum temperature. Significant increasing trends in the percentage of warm nights and decreasing trends in the percentage of cold nights were observed at many stations. It seems that this warming is mostly due to more warm nights and fewer cold nights during the summer (December–February) and fall (March–May). The stations with significant trends appear to be located closer to the west and east coasts of South America.

Transformations of Identity and Society in Anglo-Saxon Essex

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Mirrington
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Anglo Saxon ◽  
Early Medieval ◽  
Cultural Affiliation ◽  
Profound Influence ◽  
North Western

Transformations of Identity and Society in Anglo-Saxon Essex: A Case Study of an Early Medieval North Atlantic Community presents the results of a comprehensive archaeological study of early medieval Essex (c.AD 400-1066). This region provides an important case study for examining coastal societies of north-western Europe. Drawing on a wealth of new data, the author demonstrates the profound influence of maritime contacts on changing expressions of cultural affiliation. It is argued that this Continental orientation reflects Essex’s longterm engagement with the emergent, dynamic North Sea network. The wide chronological focus and inclusive dataset enables long-term socio-economic continuity and transformation to be revealed. These include major new insights into the construction of group identity in Essex between the 5th and 11th centuries and the identification of several previously unknown sites of exchange. The presentation also includes the first full archaeological study of Essex under ‘Viking’ rule.

An Assessment of Observed and Simulated Temperature Variability in Sierra de Guadarrama (Spain)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Vegas Cañas ◽  
J. Fidel González Rouco ◽  
Jorge Navarro Montesinos ◽  
Elena García Bustamante ◽  
Etor E. Lucio Eceiza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Highly Correlated

<p>This work provides a first assessment of temperature variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales in Sierra de Guadarrama, located in central Spain, from observations and regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Observational data are provided by the Guadarrama Monitoring Network (GuMNet; www.ucm.es/gumnet) at higher altitudes, up to 2225 masl, and by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMet) at lower sites. An experiment at high horizontal resolution of 1 km using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) RCM, feeding from ERA Interim inputs, is used. Through model-data comparison, it is shown that the simulations are annually and seasonally highly representative of the observations, although there is a tendency in the model to underestimate observational temperatures, mostly at high altitudes. Results show that WRF provides an added value in relation to the reanalysis, with improved correlation and error metrics relative to observations.</p><p>The analysis of temperature trends shows a warming in the area during the last 20 years, very significant in autumn. When spanning the analysis to the whole observational period, back to the beginning of the 20th century at some sites, significant annual and seasonal temperature increases of 1℃/decade develop, most of them happening during de 1970s, although not as intense as during the last 20 years.</p><p>The temporal variability of temperature anomalies in the Sierra de Guadarrama is highly correlated with the temperatures in the interior of the Iberian Peninsula. This relationship can be extended broadly over south-western Europe.</p>

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