Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis for North Tabriz Fault

The probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is one of the new methods in estimating the amount of possible displacement in the area at the hazard of causal fault rupture. In this study, using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method introduced by Youngs et al., 2003, the surface displacement of the North Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the possible displacement in different scenarios has been estimated. By considering the strike-slip mechanism of the North Tabriz fault and using the earthquake method, the probability of displacement due to surface ruptures caused by 1721 and 1780 North Tabriz fault earthquakes has been explored. These events were associated with 50 and 60 km of surface rupture, respectively. The 50–60 km long section of the North Tabriz fault was selected as the source of possible surface rupture. We considered two scenarios according to possible displacements, return periods, and magnitudes which are reported in paleoseismic studies of the North Tabriz fault. As the first scenario, possible displacement, return period, and magnitude was selected between zero to 4.5; 645 years and Mw~7.7, respectively. In the second scenario, possible displacement, return period and magnitude were selected between zero to 7.1, 300 years, and Mw~7.3, respectively. For both mentioned scenarios, the probabilistic displacements for the rate of exceedance 5 % in 50, 475, and 2475 years for the principle possible displacements (on fault) of the North Tabriz fault have been estimated. For the first and second scenarios, the maximum probabilistic displacement of the North Tabriz fault at a rate of 5 % in 50 years is estimated to be 186 and 230 cm. Also, mentioned displacements for 5 % exceedance in 475 years and 2475 years in both return periods of 645 and 300 years, are estimated at 469 and 655 cm.

Engineering geology and geotechnical characterization of Tabriz Metro Line 2, Iran

The present study was performed in order to determine the engineering geology and geotechnical details of soils and rocks along Tabriz Metro Line 2(TML2) by using the information and raw data which were acquired by borehole drilling and all field and laboratory tests in the study area. The minimum and maximum depths of the boreholes were 15 and 40 m, respectively. The results of their analysis revealed that geologically, the areas of metro route, mainly formed by alternating layers of claystone, siltstone, marl, and conglomerate, covered mainly by the alluvial deposits and in addition to older, dextral, strike-slip North Tabriz Fault (NTF) which is a major and most important geological structure of Tabriz area, there are also many minor and generally young and seismically active faults. The results of investigation on the groundwater depth in boreholes of TML2 also indicated that the groundwater depth varies between 1.5 and 30 m, along the route of metro. Eventually, based on the standard penetration test values (N-SPT), it was revealed that soils of the western parts of TML2 are in the group of dense to very dense, the central parts are in the group of very dense (Bazaar area) and dense (Fahmideh area), and the eastern parts are very dense. And finally the results achieved from determining groundwater sulfate values according to Concrete Code of Iran (CCI) indicated that the amount of soluble sulfate in the soil is mild to extremely high. Accordingly, the amount of sulfate increases from the western to the eastern parts. So that, this value is between 200 and 26,500 ppm. Based on these studies, the average of sulfate in the western, central and eastern parts is, respectively, 1118, 1275 and 4840 ppm. Thus, the groundwater in the east part is highly aggressive, and deterioration of concrete lining of the tunnel is expected in the near future.

Triggering of the 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet (Mw6.5&6.3) by the Sahand Volcano and North Tabriz fault (NW-Iran); Implications on the seismic hazard of Tabriz city

<div><span>Seismic history of the North Tabriz fault (NTF), the main active fault of Northwestern Iran near Tabriz city, and its relation to the Sahand active Volcano (SND), the second high mountain of the NW Iran, and to the 11 August 2012 Ahar-Varzaghan earthquake doublet (Mw6.5&6.3) (AVD), is investigated. I infer that before AVD seismicity of the central segment of NTF close to SND was very low compared to its neighbor segments. Magmatic activities and thermal springs near central NTF close to Bostan-Abad city and low-velocity anomalies reported beneath SND toward NTF in tomography studies suggest that the existing heat due to SND magma chamber has increased the pore-fluid pressure that overcomes the effective normal stress on the central NTF, resulting in its creep behaviour. Two peaks of cumulative scalar seismic moments of earthquakes observed on both lobes of the creeping segment, confirming the strong difference in the deformation rate between these segments. On 2012, AVD struck in the 50 km North of NTF, in the same longitude range to SND and with the same right-lateral strike-slip mechanism to NTF, as a result of partial transfer of the right-lateral deformation of NW Iran toward the North of NTF on the Ahar-Varzaghan fault system. A cumulative aseismic slip equal to an Mw6.8 event is estimated for the creeping segment of NTF, posing half of the 7mmy-1 geodetic deformation has happened in the creep mode. This event has transferred a positive Coulomb stress field of >1 bar on the AVD and triggered them. Also, the western and eastern NTF segments received >4 bar of positive Coulomb stresses from the creeping segment and are probable nucleation locations for future earthquakes on NTF. The observed creep may be the reason for the NTF segmentation during the 1721AD M7.6 and 1780 AD M7.4 historical earthquakes.</span></div>