Improved sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea using sea-ice thickness initialization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yushi Morioka ◽  
Doroteaciro Iovino ◽  
Andrea Cipollone ◽  
Simona Masina ◽  
Swadhin Behera
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>Skillful sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Ocean remains a big challenge due to paucity of sea-ice observations and insufficient representation of sea-ice processes in climate models. This study demonstrates that the Antarctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) prediction is significantly improved using a coupled general circulation model (SINTEX-F2) in which the model’s SIC and sea-ice thickness (SIT) are initialized with the ocean/sea-ice reanalysis product (C-GLORSv7). It is found that the wintertime SIT initialization adds positive values to the prediction skills of the summertime SIC, most effectively in the Weddell Sea where the SIT climatology and variability are the largest among the Antarctic Seas. Examination of the SIT balance during low sea-ice years of the Weddell Sea shows that negative SIT anomalies initialized in June retain the memory throughout austral winter (July-September) owing to horizontal advection of the SIT anomalies by sea-ice velocities. The negative SIT anomalies continue to develop in austral spring (October-December) owing to more incoming solar radiation via ice-albedo feedback and the associated warming of mixed layer. This results in further sea-ice decrease during austral summer (January-March). Concomitantly, the model reasonably reproduces atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas as well as the Weddell Sea during the development of the negative sea-ice anomalies. These results provide solid evidence that the wintertime SIT initialization benefits skillful summertime sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Seas.</p>

scholarly journals Summertime sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea improved by sea-ice thickness initialization

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yushi Morioka ◽  
Doroteaciro Iovino ◽  
Andrea Cipollone ◽  
Simona Masina ◽  
Swadhin K. Behera
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractSkillful sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Ocean remains a big challenge due to paucity of sea-ice observations and insufficient representation of sea-ice processes in climate models. Using a coupled general circulation model, this study demonstrates skillful prediction of the summertime sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Weddell Sea with wintertime SIC and sea-ice thickness (SIT) initializations. During low sea-ice years of the Weddell Sea, negative SIT anomalies initialized in June retain the memory throughout austral winter owing to horizontal advection of the SIT anomalies. The SIT anomalies continue to develop in austral spring owing to more incoming solar radiation and the associated warming of mixed layer, contributing to further sea-ice decrease during late austral summer-early autumn. Concomitantly, the model reasonably reproduces atmospheric circulation anomalies during austral spring in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas besides the Weddell Sea. These results provide evidence that the wintertime SIT initialization benefits skillful summertime sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Seas.

Sea-ice freeboard or thickness? Design choices in the context of data assimilation in the coupled numerical prediction system EC-Earth3 for seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francois Massonnet ◽  
Sara Fleury ◽  
Florent Garnier ◽  
Ed Blockley ◽  
Pablo Ortega Montilla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Concentration

<p>It is well established that winter and spring Arctic sea-ice thickness anomalies are a key source of predictability for late summer sea-ice concentration. While numerical general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly used to perform seasonal predictions, they are not systematically taking advantage of the wealth of polar observations available. Data assimilation, the study of how to constrain GCMs to produce a physically consistent state given observations and their uncertainties, remains, therefore, an active area of research in the field of seasonal prediction. With the recent advent of satellite laser and radar altimetry, large-scale estimates of sea-ice thickness have become available for data assimilation in GCMs. However, the sea-ice thickness is never directly observed by altimeters, but rather deduced from the measured sea-ice freeboard (the height of the emerged part of the sea ice floe) based on several assumptions like the depth of snow on sea ice and its density, which are both often poorly estimated. Thus, observed sea-ice thickness estimates are potentially less reliable than sea-ice freeboard estimates. Here, using the EC-Earth3 coupled forecasting system and an ensemble Kalman filter, we perform a set of sensitivity tests to answer the following questions: (1) Does the assimilation of late spring observed sea-ice freeboard or thickness information yield more skilful predictions than no assimilation at all? (2) Should the sea-ice freeboard assimilation be preferred over sea-ice thickness assimilation? (3) Does the assimilation of observed sea-ice concentration provide further constraints on the prediction? We address these questions in the context of a realistic test case, the prediction of 2012 summer conditions, which led to the all-time record low in Arctic sea-ice extent. We finally formulate a set of recommendations for practitioners and future users of sea ice observations in the context of seasonal prediction.</p>

scholarly journals A comparison between Envisat and ICESat sea ice thickness in the Antarctic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinfei Wang ◽  
Chao Min ◽  
Robert Ricker ◽  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Qian Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
European Space Agency ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Radar Altimeter ◽  
Average Deviation ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The crucial role that Antarctic sea ice plays in the global climate system is strongly linked to its thickness. While in situ observations are too sparse in the Antarctic to determine long-term trends of the Antarctic sea ice thickness on a global scale, satellite radar altimetry data can be applied with a promising prospect. A newly released Envisat-derived product from the European Space Agency Sea Ice Climate Change Initiative (ESA SICCI), including sea ice freeboard and sea ice thickness, covers the entire Antarctic year-round from 2002 to 2012. In this study, the SICCI Envisat sea ice thickness in the Antarctic is firstly compared with a conceptually new proposed ICESat ice thickness that has been derived from an algorithm employing modified ice density. Both data sets have been validated with the Weddell Sea upward looking sonar measurements (ULS), indicating that ICESat agrees better with field observations. The inter-comparisons are conducted for three seasons except winter based on the ICESat operating periods. According to the results, the deviations between Envisat and ICESat sea ice thickness are different considering different seasons, years and regions. More specifically, the smallest average deviation between Envisat and ICESat sea ice thickness exists in spring by −0.03 m while larger deviations exist in summer and autumn by 0.86 m and 0.62 m, respectively. Although the smallest absolute deviation occurs in spring 2005 by 0.02 m, the largest correlation coefficient appears in autumn 2004 by 0.77. The largest positive deviation occurs in the western Weddell Sea by 1.03 m in summer while the largest negative deviation occurs in the Eastern Antarctic by −0.25 m in spring. Potential reasons for those deviations mainly deduce from the limitations of Envisat radar altimeter affected by the weather conditions and the surface roughness as well as the different retrieval algorithms. The better performance in spring of Envisat has a potential relation with relative humidity.

scholarly journals Influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the sea ice-ocean system: the role of the thermal and mechanical forcing

Ocean Science ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 145-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Lefebvre ◽  
H. Goosse
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The global sea ice-ocean model ORCA2-LIM is used to investigate the impact of the thermal and mechanical forcing associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the Antarctic sea ice-ocean system. The model is driven by idealized forcings based on regressions between the wind stress and the air temperature at one hand and the SAM index the other hand. The wind-stress component strongly affects the overall patterns of the ocean circulation with a northward surface drift, a downwelling at about 45° S and an upwelling in the vicinity of the Antarctic continent when the SAM is positive. On the other hand, the thermal forcing has a negligible effect on the ocean currents. For sea ice, both the wind-stress (mechanical) and the air temperature (thermal) components have a significant impact. The mechanical part induces a decrease of the sea ice thickness close to the continent and a sharp decrease of the mean sea ice thickness in the Weddell sector. In general, the sea ice area also diminishes, with a maximum decrease in the Weddell Sea. On the contrary, the thermal part tends to increase the ice concentration in all sectors except in the Weddell Sea, where the ice area shrinks. This thermal effect is the strongest in autumn and in winter due to the larger temperature differences associated with the SAM during these seasons. The sum of the thermal and mechaninal effects gives a dipole response of sea ice to the SAM, with a decrease of the ice area in the Weddell Sea and around the Antarctic Peninsula and an increase in the Ross and Amundsen Seas during high SAM years. This is in good agreement with the observed response of the ice cover to the SAM.

scholarly journals Taking into Account Atmospheric Uncertainty Improves Sequential Assimilation of SMOS Sea Ice Thickness Data in an Ice–Ocean Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghua Yang ◽  
Martin Losch ◽  
Svetlana N. Losa ◽  
Thomas Jung ◽  
Lars Nerger
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Ice Concentration

AbstractThe sensitivity of assimilating sea ice thickness data to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing fields is examined using ensemble-based data assimilation experiments with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) in the Arctic Ocean during November 2011–January 2012 and the Met Office (UKMO) ensemble atmospheric forecasts. The assimilation system is based on a local singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (LSEIK) filter. It combines sea ice thickness data derived from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite and Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) sea ice concentration data with the numerical model. The effect of representing atmospheric uncertainty implicit in the ensemble forcing is assessed by three different assimilation experiments. The first two experiments use a single deterministic forcing dataset and a different forgetting factor to inflate the ensemble spread. The third experiment uses 23 members of the UKMO atmospheric ensemble prediction system. It avoids additional ensemble inflation and is hence easier to implement. As expected, the model-data misfits are substantially reduced in all three experiments, but with the ensemble forcing the errors in the forecasts of sea ice concentration and thickness are smaller compared to the experiments with deterministic forcing. This is most likely because the ensemble forcing results in a more plausible spread of the model state ensemble, which represents model uncertainty and produces a better forecast.

scholarly journals Influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the sea ice-ocean system: the role of the thermal and mechanical forcing

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Lefebvre ◽  
H. Goosse
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Mechanical Forcing ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The global sea ice-ocean model ORCA2-LIM is used to investigate the impact of the thermal and mechanical forcing associated to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the Antarctic sea ice-ocean system. To do so, the model is driven by idealized forcings based on regressions of the wind stress and the air temperature to SAM. The wind-stress component strongly affects the overall patterns of the ocean circulation with a northward surface drift, a downwelling at about 45° S and an upwelling in the vicinity of the Antarctic continent when SAM is positive. On the other hand, the thermal forcing has a negligible effect on the ocean currents. For sea ice, both the wind-stress (mechanical) and the air temperature (thermal) components have a significant impact. The mechanical part induces a decrease of the sea ice thickness close to the continent and a sharp decrease of the mean sea ice thickness in the Weddell sector. In general, the sea ice area also diminishes, with a maximum decrease in the Weddell Sea. On the contrary, the thermal part tends to increase the ice concentration in all sectors except in the Weddell Sea, where the ice area shrinks. This thermal effect is the strongest in autumn and in winter due to the larger temperature differences associated with SAM during these seasons. The sum of the thermal and mechaninal effects gives a dipole response of sea ice to the SAM, with a decrease of the ice area in the Weddell Sea and around the Antarctic Peninsula and an increase in the Ross and Amundsen Seas during high SAM years. This is in good agreement with the observed response of the ice cover to SAM.

scholarly journals Challenges associated with the climatic interpretation of water stable isotope records from a highly resolved firn core from Adélie Land, coastal Antarctica

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sentia Goursaud ◽  
Valérie Masson-Delmotte ◽  
Vincent Favier ◽  
Suzanne Preunkert ◽  
Michel Legrand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stable Isotope ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
High Accumulation ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Water Stable Isotope ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Firn Core

Abstract. A new 21.3 m firn core was drilled in 2015 at a coastal Antarctic high accumulation site in Adélie Land (66.78 °S; 139.56 °E, 602 m a.s.l.). The core was dated by annual layers counting based on non-sea-salt sulfate and methanesulfonate summer peaks, refined by a comparison between the reconstructed surface mass balance (hereafter, SMB) and the closest available stake data. The mean reconstructed SMB of 75.2 ± 15.0 cm w.e. y−1 is consistent with local stake data, and remarkably high for coastal East Antarctica. The resulting inter-annual and sub-annual variations in isotopic records (δ18O and deuterium excess, hereafter d-excess) are explored for 1998–2014 and are systematically compared with a couple of climatic time series: an updated database of Antarctic surface snow isotopic composition, SMB stake data, meteorological observations from Dumont d'Urville station, sea-ice concentration based on passive microwave satellite data, precipitation outputs of atmospheric reanalyses, climate and water stable isotope outputs from the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso, as well as air mass origins diagnosed using 5-days back-trajectories. The mean isotopic values (−19.3 ± 3.1 ‰ for δ18O and 5.4 ± 2.2 ‰ for d-excess) are consistent with other coastal Antarctic values. No significant isotope-temperature relationship can be evidenced at any timescale, ruling out a simple interpretation of in terms of local temperature. An observed asymmetry in the δ18O seasonal cycle may be explained by the precipitation of air masses coming from Indian and Pacific/West Antarctic Ice Sheet sectors in autumn and winter times, recorded in the d-excess signal showing outstanding values in austral spring versus autumn. Significant positive trends are observed in the annual d-excess record and local sea-ice extent (135 °E–145 °E) over the period 1998–2014. However, processes studies focusing on resulting isotopic compositions and particularly the d-excess-δ18O relationship, evidenced as a potential fingerprint of moisture origins, as well as the collection of more isotopic measurements in Adélie Land are needed for an accurate interpretation of our signals.

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