Comparison of local kinematic rupture joint inversion approaches for tsunami early warning: Examples of the 2017-2020 Mw > 6.3 East Aegean earthquakes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malte Metz ◽  
Marius Isken ◽  
Rongjiang Wang ◽  
Torsten Dahm ◽  
Haluk Özener ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Joint Inversion ◽  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Aegean Sea ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Source Inversion ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Centroid Moment Tensor ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning

<p>The fast inversion of reliable centroid moment tensor and kinematic rupture parameters of earthquakes occurring near coastal margins is a key for the assessment of the tsunamigenic potential and early tsunami warning (TEW). In recent years, more and more multi-channel seismic and geodetic online station networks have been built-up to improve the TEW, for instance the GNSS and strong motion networks in Italy, Greece, and Turkey, additionally to the broadband seismological monitoring. Inclusion of such data for the fast kinematic source inversion can improve the resolution and robustness of its’ solutions. However, methods have to be further developed and tested to fully exploit the potential of such rich joint dataset.</p><p>In this frame, we compare and test two in-house developed, kinematic / dynamic rupture inversion methods which are based on completely different approaches. The IDS (Iterative Deconvolution and Stacking, Zhang et al., 2014) combines an iterative seismic network inversion with back projection techniques to retrieve subfault source time functions. The pseudo dynamic rupture model (Dahm et al., in review) links the rupture front propagation estimate based on the Eikonal equation with the dislocation derived from a boundary element method to model dislocation snapshots. We used the latter in both a fast rupture estimate and a fully probabilistic source inversion.</p><p>We use some Mw > 6.3 earthquakes that occurred in the coastal range of the Aegean Sea as an example for comparison: the Mw 6.3 Lesbos earthquake (12 June 2017), the Mw 6.6 Bodrum earthquake (20 July 2017), and the recent Mw 7.0 earthquake which occurred at Samos on 30 October 2020. The latter earthquake and the resulting tsunami caused fatalities and severe damage at the shorelines of Samos and around the city of Izmir, Turkey.<br>The fast estimates are based on only little data and/or prior information obtained from the regional seismicity catalogue and available active fault information. The large number of seismic (broadband, strong motion) and geodetic (high-rate GNSS) stations in local and regional distance from the earthquake with good azimuthal coverage jointly inverted with InSAR data allows for robust inversion results. These, and other solutions, are used as a reference for the comparison of our fast source estimates.<br>Preliminary results of the slip distribution and the source time function are in good agreement with modelling results from other authors.</p><p>We present our insights into the kinematics of the chosen earthquakes investigated by means of joint inversions. Finally, the accuracy of our first fast source estimates, which could be of potential use in tsunami early warning, will be discussed.</p>

Assessing the role of selected constraints in Bayesian dynamic source inversion: Application to the 2017 Mw 6.3 Lesvos earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filip Kostka ◽  
Jiří Zahradník ◽  
Efthimios Sokos ◽  
František Gallovič
Keyword(s):  
Posterior Distribution ◽  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Monte Carlo Algorithm ◽  
Source Inversion ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Centroid Moment Tensor ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
The Mean

Summary A dynamic finite-fault source inversion for stress and frictional parameters of the Mw 6.3 2017 Lesvos earthquake is carried out. The mainshock occurred on June 12, offshore the southeastern coast of the Greek island of Lesvos in the north Aegean Sea. It caused 1 fatality, 15 injuries, and extensive damage to the southern part of the island. Dynamic rupture evolution is modeled on an elliptic patch, using the linear slip-weakening friction law. The inversion is posed as a Bayesian problem and the Parallel Tempering Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to obtain posterior probability distributions by updating the prior distribution with progressively more constraints. To calculate the first posterior distribution, only the constraint that the model should expand beyond the nucleation patch is used. Then, we add the constraint that the model should reach a moment magnitude similar to that obtained from our centroid moment tensor inversion. For the final posterior distribution, 15 acceleration records from Greek and Turkish strong motion networks at near regional distances ($\approx 30 - 150$ km) in the frequency range of 0.05–0.15 Hz are used. The three posterior distributions are compared to understand how much each constraint contributes to resolving different quantities. The most probable values and uncertainties of individual parameters are also calculated, along with their mutual trade-offs. The features best determined by seismograms in the final posterior distribution include the position of the nucleation region, the mean direction of rupture (towards WNW), the mean rupture speed (with 68 per cent of the distribution lying between 1.4–2.6 km/s), radiated energy (12–65 TJ), radiation efficiency (0.09–0.38), and the mean stress drop (2.2–6.5 MPa).

Rapid Earthquake Source Description Using Variometric-Derived GPS Displacements toward Application to the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfei Zang ◽  
Caijun Xu ◽  
Yangmao Wen ◽  
Xiaohang Wang ◽  
Kefeng He
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Continuous Phase ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Convergence Time ◽  
Centroid Moment Tensor ◽  
Origin Time ◽  
Broadcast Ephemeris

Abstract Using near-field high-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) displacements to invert for earthquake fault slips in real time has the potential to improve the accuracy of earthquake early warning or tsunami early warning. For such applications, real-time retrieval of high-accuracy GPS displacements is essential. Here, we report on rapid modeling of the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake with real-time GPS displacements derived from a variometric approach with readily available broadcast ephemeris. This method calculates station variations in real time by differencing continuous phase observations and does not rely on precise orbit and clock information. The phase ambiguity is also removed, and thus the method does not suffer from a relatively long convergence time. To improve the accuracy of variometric displacements, we use a local spatial filter to decrease the influence of residual errors that cannot be removed completely by the time difference. We invert for the centroid moment tensor, static fault slips, and fault rupture process from the derived displacements. Our results show that all inverted models are available within about 65 s after the origin time of the earthquake and are comparable with models inverted by real-time precise point positioning displacements. This study highlights the great value of variometric displacements for the rapid earthquake source description with only broadcast ephemeris.

scholarly journals NEAR REAL-TIME DETERMINATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING FROM GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 117-120
Author(s):  
Sunanda Manneela ◽  
T. Srinivasa Kumar ◽  
Shailesh R. Nayak
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Rapid Determination ◽  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Earthquake Source Parameters

Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS) allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS), starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

Joint Inversion of Rupture across a Fault Stepover during the 8 August 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou, China, Earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Wanpeng Feng ◽  
Xingxing Li ◽  
Yajing Liu ◽  
Jieyuan Ning ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Joint Inversion ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Focal Mechanisms ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Jiuzhaigou Earthquake ◽  
Rupture Model ◽  
The Right

Abstract The 8 August 2017 Mw 6.5 Jiuzhaigou earthquake occurred in a tectonically fractured region in southwest China. We investigate the multifault coseismic rupture process by jointly analyzing teleseismic, strong-motion, high-rate Global Positioning System, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) datasets. We clearly identify two right-stepping fault segments and a compressional stepover based on variations in focal mechanisms constrained by coseismic InSAR deformation data. The average geometric parameters of the northwest and southeast segments are strike = 130°/dip = 57° and strike = 151°/dip = 70°, respectively. The rupture model estimated from a joint inversion of the seismic and geodetic datasets indicates that the rupture initiated on the southeastern segment and jumped to the northwestern segment, resulting in distinctive slip patches on the two segments. A 4-km-long coseismic slip gap was identified around the stepover, consistent with the aftershock locations and mechanisms. The right-stepping segmentation and coseismic rupture across the compressional stepover exhibited by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake are reminiscent of the multifault rupture pattern during the 1976 Songpan earthquake sequence farther south along the Huya fault system in three successive Ms∼7 events. Although the common features of fault geometry and stepover may control the similarity in event locations and focal mechanisms of the 2017 and 1976 sequences, the significantly wider (~15 km) stepover in the 1976 sequence likely prohibited coseismic rupture jumping and hence reduced seismic hazard.

3-D joint geodetic and strong-motion finite fault inversion of the 2008 May 12, Wenchuan, China Earthquake

2020 ◽  
Vol 222 (2) ◽  
pp. 1390-1404
Author(s):  
Leonardo Ramirez-Guzman ◽  
Stephen Hartzell
Keyword(s):  
Time Window ◽  
Joint Inversion ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Source Inversion ◽  
Geodetic Inversion ◽  
Finite Fault Inversion ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
China Earthquake ◽  
The Moment

SUMMARY We present a source inversion of the 2008 Wenchuan, China earthquake, using strong-motion waveforms and geodetic offsets together with 3-D synthetic ground motions. We applied the linear multiple time window technique considering geodetic and dynamic Green's functions computed with the finite-element method and the reciprocity and Strain Green's Tensor formalism. All ground motion estimates, valid up to 1 Hz, accounted for 3-D effects, including the topography and the geometry of the Beichuan and Pengguan faults. Our joint inversion has a higher moment (M0) than a purely geodetic inversion and the slip distribution presents differences when compared to 1-D model source inversions. The moment is estimated to be M0 = 1.2 × 1021 N·m, slightly larger than other works. Our results show that considering a complex 3-D structure reduces the size of large areas of 10 m slip or greater by distributing it in wider zones, with reduced slips, in the central portion of the Beichuan and the Pengguan faults. Finally, we compare our source with a relocated aftershock catalogue and conclude that the 4–5 m slip contours approximately bound the absence or presence of aftershocks.

Dynamic source inversion of the 2014 Mw6 South Napa, California, earthquake

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Premus ◽  
Frantisek Gallovic
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Inversion Method ◽  
Source Inversion ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Dynamic Simulations ◽  
Simulation Code ◽  
Strong Motion Data ◽  
Motion Data ◽  
Dynamic Source

<p>Dynamic rupture modeling coupled with strong motion data fitting (dynamic source inversion) offers an insight into the rupture physics, constraining and enriching information gained from standard kinematic slip inversions. We utilize the Bayesian Monte Carlo dynamic source inversion method introduced recently by Gallovič et al. (2019), which, in addition to finding a best-fitting model, allows assessing uncertainties of the inferred parameters by sampling the posterior probability density function. The Monte Carlo approach requires running a large number (millions) of dynamic simulations due to the nonlinearity of the inverse problem. It is achieved by using GPU accelerated dynamic rupture simulation code FD3D_TSN (Premus et al., submitted) as a forward solver. We apply the inversion to the 2014 Mw6 South Napa, California, earthquake, employing strong motion data (up to 0.5 Hz) from the 10 closest stations. As an output, we obtain samples of the spatial distributions of dynamic parameters (prestress and parameters of the slip-weakening friction law). Regarding the rupture geometry, we consider two, presently ambiguous, fault planes (Pollitz et al., 2019), showing considerable differences in fitting seismograms in very close vicinity of the fault. We investigate properties of the rupture, especially in the region close to the free surface, and the viability of the model samples to explain the observed data in a broader frequency range (up to 5Hz).</p>

gCAPjoint, A Software Package for Full Moment Tensor Inversion of Moderately Strong Earthquakes with Local and Teleseismic Waveforms

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (6) ◽  
pp. 3550-3562
Author(s):  
Qipeng Bai ◽  
Sidao Ni ◽  
Risheng Chu ◽  
Zhe Jia
Keyword(s):  
Software Package ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Joint Inversion ◽  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Centroid Moment Tensor ◽  
Waveform Data ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Moment Tensors ◽  
Seismic Networks ◽  
Full Moment Tensor

Abstract Earthquake moment tensors and focal depths are crucial to assessing seismic hazards and studying active tectonic and volcanic processes. Although less powerful than strong earthquakes (M 7+), moderately strong earthquakes (M 5–6.5) occur more frequently and extensively, which can cause severe damages in populated areas. The inversion of moment tensors is usually affected by insufficient local waveform data (epicentral distance <5°) in sparse seismic networks. It would be necessary to combine local and teleseismic data (epicentral distance 30°–90°) for a joint inversion. In this study, we present the generalized cut-and-paste joint (gCAPjoint) algorithm to jointly invert full moment tensor and centroid depth with local and teleseismic broadband waveforms. To demonstrate the effectiveness and explore the limitations of this algorithm, we perform case studies on three earthquakes with different tectonic settings and source properties. Comparison of our results with global centroid moment tensor and other catalog solutions illustrates that both non-double-couple compositions of the focal mechanisms and centroid depths can be reliably recovered for very shallow (<10  km) earthquakes and intermediate-depth events with this software package.

Application of high-rate GPS for earthquake rapid response and modelling: a case in the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake

2020 ◽  
Vol 222 (3) ◽  
pp. 1923-1935
Author(s):  
Jin Fang ◽  
Caijun Xu ◽  
Jianfei Zang ◽  
Yangmao Wen ◽  
Chuang Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Source Model ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Centroid Moment Tensor ◽  
Magnitude Scaling ◽  
Global Positioning ◽  
Slip Event ◽  
Kaikoura Earthquake

SUMMARY The 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake opens an opportunity to investigate how soon we can produce a reliable fault geometry and subsequently a robust source model based on high-rate Global Positioning System (GPS) data. In this study, we conduct peak ground displacement (PGD) magnitude scaling, real-time centroid moment tensor (CMT) calculation and rapid kinematic slip inversion. We conclude that a four-station PGD warning with a magnitude of Mw 7.03 can be issued at 24 s after initiation of the rupture. Fast CMT inversion can initially recover the correct nodal planes at 30 s. The kinematic slip model reveals that the Mw 7.1 earthquake is a predominant dextral strike-slip event with both normal and thrust components resolved. The earthquake shows a bilateral rupture with a low propagation speed of ∼2.1 km s−1 and a slip maxima of ∼4 m. The total moment is 5.18 × 1019 N m (Mw 7.11). We further suggest that a reasonable source model will be available in a simulated real-time mode within 30 s after the earthquake occurring, without using full high-rate GPS waveforms. This research highlights the significance of high-rate GPS for rapid earthquake response and modelling of kinematic rupture, which is also generalized by the hypothetical real-time GPS analysis for the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake and the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake.

scholarly journals A Teleseismic Study of the 2002 Denali Fault, Alaska, Earthquake and Implications for Rapid Strong-Motion Estimation

2004 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 617-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Ji ◽  
Don V. Helmberger ◽  
David J. Wald
Keyword(s):  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Centroid Moment Tensor ◽  
Waveform Data ◽  
Arrival Times ◽  
Denali Fault ◽  
Alaska Earthquake

Slip histories for the 2002 M7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake are derived rapidly from global teleseismic waveform data. In phases, three models improve matching waveform data and recovery of rupture details. In the first model (Phase I), analogous to an automated solution, a simple fault plane is fixed based on the preliminary Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor mechanism and the epicenter provided by the Preliminary Determination of Epicenters. This model is then updated (Phase II) by implementing a more realistic fault geometry inferred from Digital Elevation Model topography and further (Phase III) by using the calibrated P-wave and SH-wave arrival times derived from modeling of the nearby 2002 M6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake. These models are used to predict the peak ground velocity and the shaking intensity field in the fault vicinity. The procedure to estimate local strong motion could be automated and used for global real-time earthquake shaking and damage assessment.

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