Simulations of Föhn in Antarctica with WRF for the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System AMPS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amélie Kirchgaessner ◽  
John King ◽  
Alan Gadian ◽  
Phil Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
Mixed Phase Clouds ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>We examine the representation of Föhn events across the Antarctic Peninsula Mountains during 2011 as they were observed in measurements by an Automatic Weather Station, and in simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as run for the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). On the Larsen Ice Shelf (LIS) in the lee of this mountain range Föhn winds are thought to provide the atmospheric conditions for significant warming over the ice shelf thus leading to the initial firn densification and subsequently providing the melt water for hydrofracturing. This process has led to the dramatic collapse of huge parts of the LIS in 1995 and 2002 respectively.</p><p>Measurements obtained at a crest AWS on the Avery Plateau (AV), and the analysis of conditions upstream using the Froude number help to put observations at CP into a wider context. We find that, while the model generally simulates meteorological parameters very well, and shows good skills in capturing the occurrence, frequency and duration of Föhn events realistically, it underestimates the temperature increase and the humidity decrease during the Föhn significantly, and may thus underestimate the contribution of Föhn to driving surface melt on the LIS.</p><p>Our results indicate that the misrepresentation of cloud properties and particularly the absence of mixed phase clouds in AMPS, affects the quality of weather simulation under normal conditions to some extent, and to a larger extent the model’s capability to simulate the strength of Föhn conditions - and thus their contribution to driving surface melt on the LIS - adequately. Most importantly our data show that Föhn conditions can raise the air temperature to above freezing, and thus trigger melt/sublimation even in winter.</p>

The representation of Föhn events to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula in simulations by the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amélie Kirchgaessner ◽  
John King ◽  
Alan Gadian
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
Mixed Phase Clouds ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>We examine the representation of Föhn events across the Antarctic Peninsula Mountains during 2011 as they were observed in measurements by an Automatic Weather Station, and in simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as run for the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). On the Larsen Ice Shelf (LIS) in the lee of this mountain range Föhn winds are thought to provide the atmospheric conditions for significant warming over the ice shelf thus leading to the initial firn densification and subsequently providing the melt water for hydrofracturing. This process has led to the dramatic collapse of huge parts of the LIS in 1995 and 2002 respectively.</p><p>We find that, while the model generally simulates meteorological parameters very well, and shows good skills in capturing the occurrence, frequency and duration of Föhn events realistically, it underestimates the temperature increase and the humidity decrease during the Föhn significantly, and may thus underestimate the contribution of Föhn to driving surface melt on the LIS. Our results indicate that the misrepresentation of cloud properties and particularly the absence of mixed phase clouds in AMPS, affects the quality of weather simulation under normal conditions to some extent, and to a larger extent the model’s capability to simulate the strength of Föhn conditions - and thus their contribution to driving surface melt on the LIS - adequately.</p>

scholarly journals Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Stefan Hofer ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
High Emission ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing, and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st century surface melting. So far it remains unclear whether these differences are due to variations in warming rates in individual models, or whether local surface energy budget feedbacks could also play a notable role. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR to study the physical mechanisms that will control future melt over the Antarctic ice shelves in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP585. We show that clouds enhance future surface melt by increasing the atmospheric emissivity and longwave radiation towards the surface. Furthermore, we highlight that differences in meltwater production for the same climate warming rate depend on cloud properties and particularly cloud phase. Clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt, subsequently favouring the absorption of solar radiation due to the snow-melt-albedo feedback. By increasing melt differences over the ice shelves in the next decades, liquid-containing clouds could be a major source of uncertainties related to the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise.

scholarly journals Surface melt magnitude retrieval over Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica using coupled MODIS near-IR and thermal satellite measurements

2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 1069-1107 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. Lampkin ◽  
C. C. Karmosky
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Katabatic Wind ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Water Fraction ◽  
Ross Ice Shelf ◽  
Near Ir ◽  
Coarse Spatial Resolution ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Surface melt has been increasing over recent years, especially over the Antarctic Peninsula, contributing to disintegration of shelves such as Larsen. Unfortunately, we are not realistically able to quantify surface snowmelt from ground-based methods because there is sparse coverage of automatic weather stations. Satellite based assessments of melt from passive microwave systems are limited in that they only provide an indication of melt occurrence and have coarse spatial resolution. An algorithm was developed to retrieve surface melt magnitude using coupled near-IR/thermal surface measurements from MODIS were calibrated by estimates of liquid water fraction (LWF) in the upper 1 cm of the firn derived from a one-dimensional physical snowmelt model (SNTHERM89). For the modeling phase of this study, SNTHERM89 was forced by hourly meteorological data from automatic weather station data at reference sites spanning a range of melt conditions across the Ross Ice Shelf during a relatively intense melt season (2002). Effective melt magnitude or LWF<eff> were derived for satellite composite periods covering the Antarctic summer months at a 4 km resolution over the entire Ross Ice Shelf, ranging from 0–0.5% LWF<eff> in early December to areas along the coast with as much as 1% LWF<eff> during the time of peak surface melt. Spatial and temporal variations in the magnitude of surface melt are related to both katabatic wind strength and advection during onshore flow.

scholarly journals Efficient Location and Extraction of the Iceberg Calved Areas of the Antarctic Ice Shelves

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 2658
Author(s):  
Mengzhen Qi ◽  
Yan Liu ◽  
Yijing Lin ◽  
Fengming Hui ◽  
Teng Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extraction Process ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Extraction Area ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Textural Characteristics ◽  
Iceberg Calving ◽  
Ice Velocity ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Omission Errors

Continuous, rapid, and precise monitoring of calving events contributes to an in-depth understanding of calving mechanisms, which have the potential to cause significant mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet. The difficulties in the precise monitoring of iceberg calving lie with the coexistence of ice shelf advances and calving. The manual location of iceberg calving is time-consuming and painstaking, while achieving precise extraction has mostly relied on the surface textural characteristics of the ice shelves and the quality of the images. Here, we propose a new and efficient method of separating the expansion and calving processes of ice shelves. We visualized the extension process by simulating a new coastline, based on the ice velocity, and detected the calved area using the simulated coastline and single-temporal post-calving images. We extensively tested the validity of this method by extracting four annual calving datasets (from August 2015 to August 2019) from the Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar mosaic of the Antarctic coastline. A total of 2032 annual Antarctic calving events were detected, with areas ranging from 0.05 km2 to 6141.0 km2, occurring on almost every Antarctic ice shelf. The extraction accuracy of the calved area depends on the positioning accuracy of the simulated coastline and the spatial resolution of the images. The positioning error of the simulated coastline is less than one pixel, and the determined minimum valid extraction area is 0.05 km2, when based on 75 m resolution images. Our method effectively avoids repetition and omission errors during the calved area extraction process. Furthermore, its efficiency is not affected by the surface textural characteristics of the calving fronts and the various changes in the frontal edge velocity, which makes it fully applicable to the rapid and accurate extraction of different calving types.

scholarly journals Microphysics of summer clouds in central West Antarctica simulated by the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (19) ◽  
pp. 12431-12454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith M. Hines ◽  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
Sheng-Hung Wang ◽  
Israel Silber ◽  
Johannes Verlinde ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liquid Water ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Weather Research

Abstract. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) provided a highly detailed set of remote-sensing and surface observations to study Antarctic clouds and surface energy balance, which have received much less attention than for the Arctic due to greater logistical challenges. Limited prior Antarctic cloud observations have slowed the progress of numerical weather prediction in this region. The AWARE observations from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide during December 2015 and January 2016 are used to evaluate the operational forecasts of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and new simulations with the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) 3.9.1. The Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations are conducted with the WRF single-moment 5-class microphysics (WSM5C) used by the AMPS and with newer generation microphysics schemes. The AMPS simulates few liquid clouds during summer at the WAIS Divide, which is inconsistent with observations of frequent low-level liquid clouds. Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations show that this result is a consequence of WSM5C. More advanced microphysics schemes simulate more cloud liquid water and produce stronger cloud radiative forcing, resulting in downward longwave and shortwave radiation at the surface more in agreement with observations. Similarly, increased cloud fraction is simulated with the more advanced microphysics schemes. All of the simulations, however, produce smaller net cloud fractions than observed. Ice water paths vary less between the simulations than liquid water paths. The colder and drier atmosphere driven by the Global Forecast System (GFS) initial and boundary conditions for AMPS forecasts produces lesser cloud amounts than the Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations driven by ERA-Interim.

Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System based on snow accumulation observations over the Ross Ice Shelf

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 587-598
Author(s):  
Yihui Liu ◽  
Yetang Wang ◽  
Minghu Ding ◽  
Weijun Sun ◽  
Tong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ross Ice Shelf ◽  
The Antarctic

scholarly journals Antarctic Atmospheric River Climatology and Impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Wille ◽  
Vincent Favier ◽  
Irina V. Gorodetskaya ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Jai Chowdhry Beeman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Atmospheric River ◽  
Dronning Maud Land ◽  
Antarctic Continent ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Antarctic

&lt;p&gt;Atmospheric rivers, broadly defined as narrow yet long bands of strong horizontal vapor transport typically imbedded in a low level jet ahead of a cold front of an extratropical cyclone, provide a sub-tropical connection to the Antarctic continent and are observed to significantly impact the affected region&amp;#8217;s surface mass balance over short, extreme events. When an atmospheric river makes landfall on the Antarctic continent, their signature is clearly observed in increased downward longwave radiation, cloud liquid water content, surface temperature, snowfall, surface melt, and moisture transport.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Using an atmospheric river detection algorithm designed for Antarctica and regional climate simulations from MAR, we created a climatology of atmospheric river occurrence and their associated impacts on surface melt and snowfall. Despite their rarity of occurrence over Antarctica (maximum frequency of ~1.5% over a given point), they have produced significant impacts on melting and snowfall processes. From 1979-2017, atmospheric rivers landfalls and their associated radiative flux anomalies and foehn winds accounted for around 40% of the total summer surface melt on the Ross Ice Shelf (approaching 100% at higher elevations in Marie Byrd Land) and 40-80% of total winter surface melt on the ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula. On the other side of the continent in East Antarctica, atmospheric rivers have a greater influence on annual snowfall variability. There atmospheric rivers are responsible for 20-40% of annual snowfall with localized higher percentages across Dronning Maud Land, Amery Ice Shelf, and Wilkes Land.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Atmospheric river landfalls occur within a highly amplified polar jet pattern and often are found in the entrance region of a blocking ridge. Therefore, atmospheric river variability is connected with atmospheric blocking variability over the Southern Ocean. There has been a significant increase in atmospheric river activity over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen sea and coastline and into Dronning Maud Land region from 1980-2018. Meanwhile, there is a significant decreasing trend in the region surrounding Law Dome. Our results suggest that atmospheric rivers play a significant role in the Antarctic surface mass balance, and that any future changes in atmospheric blocking or tropical-polar teleconnections may have significant impacts on future surface mass balance projections.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Automated mapping of the seasonal evolution of surface meltwater and its links to climate on the Amery Ice Shelf, Antarctica

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. Tuckett ◽  
Jeremy C. Ely ◽  
Andrew J. Sole ◽  
James M. Lea ◽  
Stephen J. Livingstone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Katabatic Wind ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Amery Ice Shelf ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Surface meltwater is widespread around the margin of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and has the potential to influence ice-shelf stability, ice-dynamic processes and ice-albedo feedbacks. Whilst the general spatial distribution of surface meltwater across the Antarctic continent is now relatively well known, our understanding of the seasonal and multi-year evolution of surface meltwater is limited. Attempts to generate robust time series of melt cover have largely been constrained by computational expense or limited ice surface visibility associated with mapping from optical satellite imagery. Here, we implement an existing meltwater detection method alongside a novel method for calculating visibility metrics within Google Earth Engine. This enables us to quantify uncertainty induced by cloud cover and variable image data coverage, allowing us to automatically generate time series of surface melt area over large spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate our method on the Amery Ice Shelf region of East Antarctica, analysing 4,164 Landsat 7 and 8 optical images between 2005 and 2020. Results show high interannual variability in surface meltwater cover, with mapped cumulative lake area totals ranging from 384 km2 to 3898 km2 per melt season. However, by incorporating image visibility assessments into our results, we estimate that cumulative total lake areas are on average 42 % higher than minimum mapped values, highlighting the importance of accounting for variations in image visibility when mapping lake areas. In a typical melt season, total lake area remains low throughout November and early December, before increasing, on average, by an order of magnitude during the second half of December. Peak lake area most commonly occurs during January, before decreasing during February as lakes freeze over. We show that modelled melt predictions from a regional climate model provides a good indication of lake cover in the Amery region, and that annual lake coverage is strongly associated with phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM); surface melt is typically highest in years with a negative austral summer SAM index. Furthermore, we suggest that melt-albedo feedbacks modulate the spatial distribution of meltwater in the region, with the exposure of blue ice from persistent katabatic wind scouring influencing the susceptibility of melt ponding. Results demonstrate how our method could be scaled up to generate a multi-year time series record of surface water extent from optical imagery at a continent-wide scale.

A 3-D Model of Antarctic Ice Shelf Surface Hydrology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sammie Buzzard ◽  
Alex Robel
Keyword(s):  
Comprehensive Model ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Lateral Transport ◽  
Surface Hydrology ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
D Model ◽  
Key Questions

&lt;p&gt;The formation of surface meltwater has been linked with the disintegration of many ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula over the last several decades. Despite the importance of surface meltwater production and transport to ice shelf stability, knowledge of these processes is still lacking. Understanding the surface hydrology of ice shelves is an essential first step to reliably project future sea level rise from ice sheet melt.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;In order to better understand the processes driving meltwater distribution on ice shelves, we present results from case studies using a new 3-D model of surface hydrology for Antarctic ice shelves. It is the first comprehensive model of surface hydrology to be developed for Antarctic ice shelves, enabling us to incorporate key processes such as the lateral transport of surface meltwater. Recent observations suggest that surface hydrology processes on ice shelves are more complex than previously thought, and that processes such as lateral routing of meltwater across ice shelves, ice shelf flexure and surface debris all play a role in the location and influence of meltwater. Our model allows us to account for these and is calibrated and validated through both remote sensing and field observations. Here we present results from in depth studies from selected ice shelves with significant surface melt features.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;This community-driven, open-access model has been developed with input from observations, and allows us to provide new insights into surface meltwater distribution on Antarctica&amp;#8217;s ice shelves. This enables us to answer key questions about their past and future evolution under changing atmospheric conditions and vulnerability to meltwater driven hydrofracture and collapse.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals A Decade of Antarctic Science Support Through Amps

2012 ◽  
Vol 93 (11) ◽  
pp. 1699-1712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan G. Powers ◽  
Kevin W. Manning ◽  
David H. Bromwich ◽  
John J. Cassano ◽  
Arthur M. Cayette
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Weather Research

The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) is a real-time numerical weather prediction (NWP) system covering Antarctica that has served a remarkable range of groups and activities for a decade. It employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) on varying-resolution grids to generate numerical guidance in a variety of tailored products. While its priority mission has been to support the forecasters of the U.S. Antarctic Program, AMPS has evolved to assist a host of scientific and logistical needs for an international user base. The AMPS effort has advanced polar NWP and Antarctic science and looks to continue this into another decade. To inform those with Antarctic scientific and logistical interests and needs, the history, applications, and capabilities of AMPS are discussed.

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