scholarly journals A spectral analysis of near-surface wind speed and possible sources of predictability in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Utrabo-Carazo ◽  
Cesar Azorin-Molina ◽  
Enric Aguilar ◽  
Manola Brunet

<p>Conventional time series analysis of observed near-surface wind speed (SWS) have focused both on mean values and on the sign, magnitude and statistical significance of trends. Specifically, a decrease in the SWS has been detected in continental surfaces of the planet's mid-latitudes from 1979 to 2010 approximately, the so-called <em>stilling</em> phenomenon; and an increase from 2010 until now, the <em>reversal</em> phenomenon. However, although various hypotheses have been proposed in the scientific literature, the mechanisms behind these phenomena and what evolution this parameter will follow in the future are still understudied, mainly because the response of a variable dependent on atmospheric circulation, such as wind speed, to a warming climate is uncertain. This study aims to use spectral analysis (Fourier and wavelet) to determine the most significant frequency modes associated with the SWS time series in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), for both mean wind speed and daily peak wind gusts, as well as its temporal evolution for 1961-2019. Subsequently, this study will also attempt to relate these modes to those corresponding to various modes of ocean-atmosphere variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or, due to the influence of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the European troposphere, the polar vortex. The ultimate goal will be to explore possible sources of predictability in the medium-long term for SWS across the IP, which would have direct applications in areas such as: wind-power generation, agriculture, air quality, insurance and fishing industries, among many others socioeconomic and environmental issues. </p>

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefania Argentini ◽  
Ilaria Pietroni ◽  
Giangiuseppe Mastrantonio ◽  
Angelo P. Viola ◽  
Guillaume Dargaud ◽  
...  

AbstractThe annual and diurnal behaviours of near surface wind speed, temperature, and the radiative budget at Concordia Station (Dome C) in different seasons are shown. The wind speed was lowest in summer when a daily cycle was also observed. The largest mean values were concurrent with boundary layer growth in the afternoon. In winter and spring the wind speed reached the highest mean values. Perturbations in the wind flow were due to warming events which occurred periodically at Dome C. The lowest temperatures were in April and at the end of August. The coreless winter behaviour was perturbed by warming events which in many cases produced an increase in temperature of c. 20°C. The average temperature profiles show permanent thermal inversion, with the exception of a few hours in the afternoons during the summer. The strongest ground-based thermal inversions were observed in the polar winter. The largest potential temperature gradients were limited to a 30–40 m deep layer close to the surface. The net radiation was negative almost all the time with the exception of the period from mid-December to mid-January.


2014 ◽  
Vol 599-601 ◽  
pp. 1605-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Zeng ◽  
Zhan Xie Wu ◽  
Qing Hao Meng ◽  
Jing Hai Li ◽  
Shu Gen Ma

The wind is the main factor to influence the propagation of gas in the atmosphere. Therefore, the wind signal obtained by anemometer will provide us valuable clues for searching gas leakage sources. In this paper, the Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) are applied to analyze the influence of recurrence characteristics of the wind speed time series under the condition of the same place, the same time period and with the sampling frequency of 1hz, 2hz, 4.2hz, 5hz, 8.3hz, 12.5hz and 16.7hz respectively. Research results show that when the sampling frequency is higher than 5hz, the trends of recurrence nature of different groups are basically unchanged. However, when the sampling frequency is set below 5hz, the original trend of recurrence nature is destroyed, because the recurrence characteristic curves obtained using different sampling frequencies appear cross or overlapping phenomena. The above results indicate that the anemometer will not be able to fully capture the detailed information in wind field when its sampling frequency is lower than 5hz. The recurrence characteristics analysis of the wind speed signals provides an important basis for the optimal selection of anemometer.


Urban Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 100703
Author(s):  
Yonghong Liu ◽  
Yongming Xu ◽  
Fangmin Zhang ◽  
Wenjun Shu

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqing Xu ◽  
Like Ning ◽  
Yong Luo

With the large-scale development of wind energy, wind power forecasting plays a key role in power dispatching in the electric power grid, as well as in the operation and maintenance of wind farms. The most important technology for wind power forecasting is forecasting wind speed. The current mainstream methods for wind speed forecasting involve the combination of mesoscale numerical meteorological models with a post-processing system. Our work uses the WRF model to obtain the numerical weather forecast and the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithm to improve the near-surface wind speed post-processing results of the numerical weather model. We calculate the feature importance of GBDT in order to find out which feature most affects the post-processing wind speed results. The results show that, after using about 300 features at different height and pressure layers, the GBDT algorithm can output more accurate wind speed forecasts than the original WRF results and other post-processing models like decision tree regression (DTR) and multi-layer perceptron regression (MLPR). Using GBDT, the root mean square error (RMSE) of wind speed can be reduced from 2.7–3.5 m/s in the original WRF result by 1–1.5 m/s, which is better than DTR and MLPR. While the index of agreement (IA) can be improved by 0.10–0.20, correlation coefficient be improved by 0.10–0.18, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) be improved by −0.06–0.6. It also can be found that the feature which most affects the GBDT results is the near-surface wind speed. Other variables, such as forecast month, forecast time, and temperature, also affect the GBDT results.


2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 114019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Torralba ◽  
Francisco J Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego

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