scholarly journals A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matias Heino ◽  
Joseph H. A. Guillaume ◽  
Christoph Müller ◽  
Toshichika Iizumi ◽  
Matti Kummu
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Food System ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Yield Data ◽  
Climate Oscillations ◽  
Crop Models

Abstract. Climate oscillations are periodically fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, which are related to variations in weather patterns and crop yields worldwide. In terms of crop production, the most widespread impacts have been observed for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been found to impact crop yields on all continents that produce crops, while two other climate oscillations – the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – have been shown to especially impact crop production in Australia and Europe, respectively. In this study, we analyse the impacts of ENSO, IOD, and NAO on the growing conditions of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat at the global scale by utilising crop yield data from an ensemble of global gridded crop models simulated for a range of crop management scenarios. Our results show that, while accounting for their potential co-variation, climate oscillations are correlated with simulated crop yield variability to a wide extent (half of all maize and wheat harvested areas for ENSO) and in several important crop-producing areas, e.g. in North America (ENSO, wheat), Australia (IOD and ENSO, wheat), and northern South America (ENSO, soybean). Further, our analyses show that higher sensitivity to these oscillations can be observed for rainfed and fully fertilised scenarios, while the sensitivity tends to be lower if crops were to be fully irrigated. Since the development of ENSO, IOD, and NAO can potentially be forecasted well in advance, a better understanding about the relationship between crop production and these climate oscillations can improve the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks.

scholarly journals A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matias Heino ◽  
Joseph H. A. Guillaume ◽  
Christoph Müller ◽  
Toshichika Iizumi ◽  
Matti Kummu
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Food System ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Yield Data ◽  
Climate Oscillations ◽  
Crop Models

Abstract. Climate oscillations are periodically fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, which are related to variations in weather patterns and crop yields worldwide. In terms of crop production, the most widespread impacts have been observed for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been found to impact crop yields in all continents that produce crops, while two other climate oscillations – the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – have been shown to impact crop production especially in Australia and Europe, respectively. In this study, we analyse the impacts of ENSO, IOD and NAO on the growing conditions of maize, rice, soybean and wheat at the global scale, by utilizing crop yield data from an ensemble of global gridded crop models simulated for a range of crop management scenarios. Our results show that simulated crop yield variability is correlated to climate oscillations to a wide extent (up to almost half of all maize and wheat harvested areas for ENSO) and in several important crop producing areas, e.g. in North America (ENSO, wheat), Australia (IOD & ENSO, wheat) and northern South America (ENSO, soybean). Further, our analyses show that higher sensitivity to these oscillations can be observed for rainfed, and fully fertilized scenarios, while the sensitivity tends to be lower if crops are fully irrigated. Since, the development of ENSO, IOD and NAO can be reliably forecasted in advance, a better understanding about the relationship between crop production and these climate oscillations can improve the resilience of the global food system to climate related shocks.

Climate change impacts on crop water productivity in Africa using a multi-model inter-comparison

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imeshi Weerasinghe ◽  
Celray James Chawanda ◽  
Ann van Griensven
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Yield Data ◽  
Water Vapour Flux ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Crop Water Productivity

<p>Evapotranspiration (ET) or the water vapour flux is an important component in the water cycle and is widely studied due to its implications in disciplines ranging from hydrology to agricultural and climate sciences. In the recent past, growing attention has been given to estimating ET fluxes at regional and global scales. However, estimation of ET at large scales has been a difficult task due to direct measurement of ET being possible only at point locations, for example using flux towers. For the African continent, only a limited number of flux tower data are openly available for use, which makes verification of regional and global ET products very difficult. Recent advances in satellite based products provide promising data to fill these observational gaps.</p><p>In this study we propose to investigate the Climate Change (CC) impact on crop water productivity across Africa using ET and crop yield predictions of different crop models for future climate scenarios. Different model outputs are evaluated including models from both the ISI-MIP 2a and 2b protocols. Considering the problem of direct observations of ET being difficult to obtain, especially over Africa, we use ET estimates from several remotely sensed derived products as a references to evaluate the crop models (maize) in terms of magnitude, spatial patterns and variations between models. The crop model results for crop yield are compared to FAO reported crop yields at country scale. The results show a very strong disagreement between the different crop models of the baseline scenario and when compared with ET and crop yield data.  Also, a very large uncertainty is obtained for the climate change predictions. It is hence recommended to improve the crop models for application in Africa.</p>

scholarly journals The Pitfalls of Relating Weeds, Herbicide Use, and Crop Yield: Don't Fall Into the Trap! A Critical Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathalie Colbach ◽  
Sandrine Petit ◽  
Bruno Chauvel ◽  
Violaine Deytieux ◽  
Martin Lechenet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yield ◽  
Weed Management ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Arable Farming ◽  
Herbicide Use ◽  
The Impact

The growing recognition of the environmental and health issues associated to pesticide use requires to investigate how to manage weeds with less or no herbicides in arable farming while maintaining crop productivity. The questions of weed harmfulness, herbicide efficacy, the effects of herbicide use on crop yields, and the effect of reducing herbicides on crop production have been addressed over the years but results and interpretations often appear contradictory. In this paper, we critically analyze studies that have focused on the herbicide use, weeds and crop yield nexus. We identified many inconsistencies in the published results and demonstrate that these often stem from differences in the methodologies used and in the choice of the conceptual model that links the three items. Our main findings are: (1) although our review confirms that herbicide reduction increases weed infestation if not compensated by other cultural techniques, there are many shortcomings in the different methods used to assess the impact of weeds on crop production; (2) Reducing herbicide use rarely results in increased crop yield loss due to weeds if farmers compensate low herbicide use by other efficient cultural practices; (3) There is a need for comprehensive studies describing the effect of cropping systems on crop production that explicitly include weeds and disentangle the impact of herbicides from the effect of other practices on weeds and on crop production. We propose a framework that presents all the links and feed-backs that must be considered when analyzing the herbicide-weed-crop yield nexus. We then provide a number of methodological recommendations for future studies. We conclude that, since weeds are causing yield loss, reduced herbicide use and maintained crop productivity necessarily requires a redesign of cropping systems. These new systems should include both agronomic and biodiversity-based levers acting in concert to deliver sustainable weed management.

scholarly journals Geostatistical analysis of crop yield maps in a long term no tillage system

Bragantia ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 69 (suppl) ◽  
pp. 9-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osvaldo Guedes Filho ◽  
Sidney Rosa Vieira ◽  
Marcio Koiti Chiba ◽  
Célia Regina Grego
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Spherical Model ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
No Tillage ◽  
Yield Data ◽  
The North ◽  
Tillage System

It is known, for a long time, that crop yields are not uniform at the field. In some places, it is possible to distinguish sites with both low and high yields even within the same area. This work aimed to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of some crop yields and to identify potential zones for site specific management in an area under no-tillage system for 23 years. Data were analyzed from a 3.42 ha long term experimental area at the Centro Experimental Central of the Instituto Agronômico, located in Campinas, Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The crop yield data evaluated included the following crops: soybean, maize, lablab and triticale, and all of them were cultivated since 1985 and sampled at a regular grid of 302 points. Data were normalized and analyzed using descriptive statistics and geostatistical tools in order to demonstrate and describe the structure of the spatial variability. All crop yields showed high variability. All of them also showed spatial dependence and were fitted to the spherical model, except for the yield of the maize in 1999 productivity which was fitted to the exponential model. The north part of the area presented repeated high values of productivity in some years. There was a positive cross correlation amongst the productivity values, especially for the maize crops.

scholarly journals Drought risk in the Bolivian Altiplano associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation using satellite imagery data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Canedo-Rosso ◽  
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler ◽  
Georg Pflug ◽  
Bruno Condori ◽  
Ronny Berndtsson
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Bolivian Altiplano ◽  
Imagery Data

Abstract. Drought is a major natural hazard in the Bolivian Altiplano that causes large losses to farmers, especially during positive ENSO phases. However, empirical data for drought risk estimation purposes are scarce and spatially uneven distributed. Due to these limitations, similar to many other regions in the world, we tested the performance of satellite imagery data for providing precipitation and temperature data. The results show that droughts can be better predicted using a combination of satellite imagery and ground-based available data. Consequently, the satellite climate data were associated with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in order to evaluate the crop production variability. Moreover, NDVI was used to target specific drought hotspot regions. Furthermore, during positive ENSO phase (El Niño years), a significant decrease in crop yields can be expected and we indicate areas where losses will be most pronounced. The results can be used for emergency response operations and enable a pro-active approach to disaster risk management against droughts. This includes economic-related and risk reduction strategies such as insurance and irrigation.

Future global crop production increases by adapting crop phenology to local climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Minoli ◽  
Jonas Jägermeyr ◽  
Senthold Asseng ◽  
Christoph Müller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Crop Phenology

<p>Broad evidence is pointing at possible adverse impacts of climate change on crop yields. Due to scarce information about farming management practices, most global-scale studies, however, do not consider adaptation strategies.</p><p>Here we integrate models of farmers' decision making with crop biophysical modeling at the global scale to investigate how accounting for adaptation of crop phenology affects projections of future crop productivity under climate change. Farmers in each simulation unit are assumed to adapt crop growing periods by continuously selecting sowing dates and cultivars that match climatic conditions best. We compare counterfactual management scenarios, assuming crop calendars and cultivars to be either the same as in the reference climate – as often assumed in previous climate impact assessments – or adapted to future climate.</p><p>Based on crop model simulations, we find that the implementation of adapted growing periods can substantially increase (+15%) total crop production in 2080-2099 (RCP6.0). In general, summer crops are responsive to both sowing and harvest date adjustments, which result in overall longer growing periods and improved yields, compared to production systems without adaptation of growing periods. Winter wheat presents challenges in adapting to a warming climate and requires region-specific adjustments to pre and post winter conditions. We present a systematic evaluation of how local and climate-scenario specific adaptation strategies can enhance global crop productivity on current cropland. Our findings highlight the importance of further research on the readiness of required crop varieties.</p>

The relationship between extreme weather and low crop yields

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matias Heino ◽  
Weston Anderson ◽  
Michael Puma ◽  
Matti Kummu
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
Weather Events

<p>It is well known that climate extremes and variability have strong implications for crop productivity. Previous research has estimated that annual weather conditions explain a third of global crop yield variability, with explanatory power above 50% in several important crop producing regions. Further, compared to average conditions, extreme events contribute a major fraction of weather induced crop yield variations. Here we aim to analyse how extreme weather events are related to the likelihood of very low crop yields at the global scale. We investigate not only the impacts of heat and drought on crop yields but also excess soil moisture and abnormally cool temperatures, as these extremes can be detrimental to crops as well. In this study, we combine reanalysis weather data with national and sub-national crop production statistics and assess relationships using statistical copulas methods, which are especially suitable for analysing extremes. Further, because irrigation can decrease crop yield variability, we assess how the observed signals differ in irrigated and rainfed cropping systems. We also analyse whether the strength of the observed statistical relationships could be explained by socio-economic factors, such as GDP, social stability, and poverty rates. Our preliminary results indicate that extreme heat and cold as well as soil moisture abundance and excess have a noticeable effect on crop yields in many areas around the globe, including several global bread baskets such as the United States and Australia. This study will increase understanding of extreme weather-related implications on global food production, which is relevant also in the context of climate change, as the frequency of extreme weather events is likely to increase in many regions worldwide.</p>

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variability of crop yield and some Rhodic Hapludox properties under no-tillage

2010 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osvaldo Guedes Filho ◽  
Sidney Rosa Vieira ◽  
Márcio Koiti Chiba ◽  
César Hideo Nagumo ◽  
Sônia Carmela Falci Dechen
Keyword(s):  
Physical Properties ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
No Tillage

Soil properties are closely related with crop production and spite of the measures implemented, spatial variation has been repeatedly observed and described. Identifying and describing spatial variations of soil properties and their effects on crop yield can be a powerful decision-making tool in specific land management systems. The objective of this research was to characterize the spatial and temporal variations in crop yield and chemical and physical properties of a Rhodic Hapludox soil under no-tillage. The studied area of 3.42 ha had been cultivated since 1985 under no-tillage crop rotation in summer and winter. Yield and soil property were sampled in a regular 10 x 10 m grid, with 302 sample points. Yields of several crops were analyzed (soybean, maize, triticale, hyacinth bean and castor bean) as well as soil chemical (pH, Soil Organic Matter (SOM), P, Ca2+, Mg2+, H + Al, B, Fe, Mn, Zn, CEC, sum of bases (SB), and base saturation (V %)) and soil physical properties (saturated hydraulic conductivity, texture, density, total porosity, and mechanical penetration resistance). Data were analyzed using geostatistical analysis procedures and maps based on interpolation by kriging. Great variation in crop yields was observed in the years evaluated. The yield values in the Northern region of the study area were high in some years. Crop yields and some physical and soil chemical properties were spatially correlated.

scholarly journals A crop yield change emulator for use in GCAM and similar models: Persephone v1.0

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abigail Snyder ◽  
Katherine V. Calvin ◽  
Meridel Phillips ◽  
Alex C. Ruane
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Improvement Project ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
System Changes

Abstract. Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields, but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multi-sector economic models, such as GCAM and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model's results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate, dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models; for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

scholarly journals Assessing the Circularity of Nutrient Flows Across Nested Scales for Four Food System Scenarios in the Okanagan Bioregion, BC Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Harder ◽  
Kent Mullinix ◽  
Sean Smukler
Keyword(s):  
Crop Production ◽  
Food System ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Food Trade ◽  
Nutrient Flows ◽  
Self Reliance ◽  
Organic Residual

In light of continued nutrient pollution in water bodies and anticipated insecurities related to future nutrient supplies, there is an increasing awareness of the need to use nutrients in a more circular way. As part of a food system design study in the Okanagan bioregion, BC Canada we set out to evaluate different food system scenarios for the year 2050 in terms of nutrient circularity. In doing so, the objective was to evaluate the circularity of nutrient flows not only in the Okanagan, but also in relation to exogenous regions, insofar as nutrient flows relate to feed and food consumption and production in the Okanagan. This is important because feed and food trade means that nutrient inputs to crop production in the Okanagan may make their way into organic residuals outside the Okanagan, and vice versa. If not accounted for, this may lead to a distorted picture when analyzing nutrient circularity. To this effect, we applied an analytical framework and calculation model that explicitly tracks nutrients from crop production to organic residual generation. The results of the study suggest that assessing nutrient circularity across nested scales was critical for two reasons. First, changes in overall nutrient flows in response to population increase and dietary change were found to be more pronounced outside the Okanagan. Second, our analysis clearly revealed the extent to which feed and food trade boost nutrient self-reliance in the Okanagan at the expense of nutrient self-reliance outside the Okanagan. This kind of analysis should therefore be useful to explore, ideally together with food system and organic residual management actors, how different food system and organic residual management scenarios perform in terms of nutrient circularity, in the geographical area being considered, but also how it impacts nutrient flows and circularity in the places with which feed and food are traded.

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