ESD Reviews: Extreme Weather and Societal Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract. Gaining a holistic understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society and ecosystems, is key to supporting future risk reduction and preparedness measures. Here, we provide an overview of the state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean. This region is situated in a transition zone between subtropical and mid-latitude climates. Extreme weather is mainly governed by the large-scale atmospheric circulation and its interaction with regional synoptic systems, i.e., Cyprus Lows, Red Sea Troughs, Persian Troughs, ‘Sharav’ Lows, and high-pressure systems. Complex orographic features further play an important role in the generation of extreme weather. Most extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, cold spells, floods and wind storms, are associated with a Cyprus Low or Active Red Sea Trough, whereas heat waves are related with either the Persian Trough and Sub-Tropical High-pressure systems in summer, or the ‘Sharav’ Low during spring time. Heat waves and droughts are projected to significantly increase in both frequency and intensity. In future decades, changes in heavy precipitation frequency and intensity may vary in sign and magnitude depending on the scale, severity and region of interest. There are still relatively large uncertainties concerning the physical understanding and the projected changes of cold spells, wind storms and compound events, as these types of events received comparatively little attention in the literature. We further identify knowledge gaps that relate to the societal impacts of extreme weather. These gaps mainly relate to the effects extreme weather may have on mortality, morbidity and infrastructure in the eastern Mediterranean. Research is currently limited in this context, and we call to strengthen the database of analyzed case-studies. We trust that this can only be suitably accomplished by inter-disciplinary and international regional collaborations, in spite of political unrest.

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Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future

10.5194/acp-2018-231 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Junxi Zhang ◽

Yang Gao ◽

Kun Luo ◽

L. Ruby Leung ◽

Yang Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Extreme Events ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Low Wind Speed ◽

Weather Events ◽

The Us ◽

The Future ◽

Compound Events ◽

Ozone Episodes

Abstract. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) was used to study the effect of extreme weather events on ozone in US for historical (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) periods under RCP8.5 scenario. During extreme weather events, including heat waves, atmospheric stagnation, and their compound events, ozone concentration is much higher compared to non-extreme events period. A striking enhancement of effect during compound events is revealed when heat wave and stagnation occur simultaneously and both high temperature and low wind speed promote the production of high ozone concentrations. In regions with high emissions, compound extreme events can shift the high-end tails of the probability density functions (PDFs) of ozone to even higher values to generate extreme ozone episodes. In regions with low emissions, extreme events can still increase high ozone frequency but the high-end tails of the PDFs are constrained by the low emissions. Despite large anthropogenic emission reduction projected for the future, compound events increase ozone more than the single events by 10 % to 13 %, comparable to the present, and high ozone episodes are not eliminated. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the frequency of compound events is found to increase more dominantly compared to the increased frequency of single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China. High ozone episodes will likely continue in the future due to increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events, despite reductions in anthropogenic emissions of its precursors. However, the latter could reduce or eliminate extreme ozone episodes, so improving projections of compound events and their impacts on extreme ozone may better constrain future projections of extreme ozone episodes that have detrimental effects on human health.

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Extreme Weather Impacts on Inland Waterways Transport of Yangtze River

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10030133 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 133 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Lijun Liu ◽

Yuanqiao Wen ◽

Youjia Liang ◽

Fan Zhang ◽

Tiantian Yang

Keyword(s):

Heat Wave ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

Climate Zone ◽

Inland Waterways ◽

Weather Events ◽

The Impact

The impact of extreme weather events on the navigation environment in the inland waterways of the Yangtze River is an interdisciplinary hotspot in subjects of maritime traffic safety and maritime meteorology, and it is also a difficult point for the implementation of decision-making and management by maritime and meteorological departments in China. The objective of this study is to review the variation trends and distribution patterns in the periods of adverse and extreme weather events that are expected to impact on inland waterways transport (IWT) on the Yangtze River. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the ERA-Interim datasets (1979–2017) and the GHCNDEX dataset (1979–2017), as well as the research progresses and important events (2004–2016) affecting the navigation environment. The impacts of extreme weather events on IWT accidents and phenomena of extreme weather (e.g., thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and tornadoes) that affect the navigation environment are also analyzed and discussed. The results show that: (1) the sections located in the plain climate zone is affected by extreme weather in every season, especially strong winds and heat waves; (2) the sections located in the hilly mountain climate zone is affected particularly by spring extreme phenomena, especially heat waves; (3) the sections located in the Sichuan Basin climate zone is dominated by the extreme weather phenomena in autumn, except cold waves; (4) the occurrence frequency of potential flood risk events is relatively high under rainstorm conditions and wind gusts almost affect the navigation environment of the Jiangsu and Shanghai sections in every year; (5) the heat wave indices (TXx, TR, and WSDI) tend to increase and the temperature of the coldest day of the year gradually increases; (6) the high occurrences of IWT accidents need to be emphasized by relevant departments, caused by extreme weather during the dry season; and (7) the trends and the degree of attention of extreme weather events affecting IWT are ranked as: heat wave > heavy rainfall > wind gust > cold spell > storm. Understanding the seasonal and annual frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events has reference significance for regional management of the Yangtze River.

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The impact of two extreme weather events and other causes of death on Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo: a promise of things to come for a threatened species?

Pacific Conservation Biology ◽

10.1071/pc110141 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 17 (2) ◽

pp. 141 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

Denis A Saunders ◽

Peter Mawson ◽

Rick Dawson

Keyword(s):

Causes Of Death ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Motor Vehicles ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Weather Events ◽

Dramatic Decline ◽

To Come ◽

Stochastic Events ◽

The Impact

Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo is an endangered species which has undergone a dramatic decline in range and abundance in southwestern Australia. Between October 2009 and March 2010 the species was subjected to a possible outbreak of disease in one of its major breeding areas and exposed to an extremely hot day and a severe localized hail storm. In addition, collisions with motor vehicles are becoming an increasing threat to the species. All of these stochastic events resulted in many fatalities. Species such as Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo which form large flocks are particularly susceptible to localized events such as hail storms, contagious disease and collisions with motor vehicles. Extreme temperatures may have major impacts on both flocking and non-flocking species. Predictions of climate change in the southwest of Western Australia are that there will be an increased frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and severe hail storms. The implications of more events of this nature on Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo are discussed.

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Extreme Weather Events and Its Impacts on Rice Production in Coastal Odisha Region of India

10.21203/rs.3.rs-728031/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

S Vijayakumar ◽

A.K. Nayak ◽

N. Manikandan ◽

Suchismita Pattanaik ◽

Rahul Tripathi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Grain Yield ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Significant Trend ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Rice Grain ◽

Weather Events ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract The study investigates trend in extreme daily precipitation and temperature over coastal Odisha, India. 18 weather indices (8 related to temperature and 10 related to rainfall) were calculated using RClimDex software package for the period 1980–2010 . Trend analysis was carried out using linear regression and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to find out the statistical significance of various indices. Results indicated, a strong and significant trend in temperature indices while the weak and non-significant trend in precipitation indices. The positive trend in Tmax mean, Tmin mean, TN90p (warm nights), TX90p (warm days), diurnal temperature range (DTR), warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), consecutive dry days (CDD) indicates increasing the frequency of warming events in coastal Odisha. Similarly, positive trend in highest maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1), highest maximum 2 consecutive day precipitation (RX2), highest maximum 3 consecutive day precipitation (RX3), highest maximum 5 consecutive day precipitation (RX5), number of heavy precipitation days (≥64.5mm), number of very heavy precipitation days (≥124.5mm) and negative trend in the number of rainy days (R2.5mm), consecutive wet days (CWD) indicate changes toward the more intense and poor distribution of precipitation in coastal Odisha. The combined effect of precipitation and temperature extreme events showed negative effects on rice grain yield. With the increasing number of extreme events there was sharp decline in rice grain yield was observed in the same year in all the coastal districts. This study emphasizes the need for new technology/management practice to minimize the impacts of extreme weather events on rice yield.

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A New View of Heat Wave Dynamics and Predictability over the Eastern Mediterranean

10.5194/esd-2020-37 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Assaf Hochman ◽

Sebastian Scher ◽

Julian Quinting ◽

Joaquim G. Pinto ◽

Gabriele Messori

Keyword(s):

Dynamical Systems ◽

Heat Wave ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Stress Index ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Abstract. Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socio-economic relevance. Here, we compare two complementary approaches to diagnose the predictability of extreme weather: recent developments in dynamical systems theory and numerical ensemble weather forecasts. The former allows us to define atmospheric configurations in terms of their persistence and local dimension, which inform on how the atmosphere evolves to and from a given state of interest. These metrics may be used as proxies for the intrinsic predictability of the atmosphere, which depends exclusively on the atmosphere’s properties. Ensemble weather forecasts inform on the practical predictability of the atmosphere, which primarily depends on the performance of the numerical model used. We focus on heat waves affecting the Eastern Mediterranean. These are identified using the Climatic Stress Index (CSI), which was explicitly developed for the summer weather conditions in this region and differentiates between heat waves (upper decile) and cool days (lower decile). Significant differences are found between the two groups from both the dynamical systems and the numerical weather prediction perspectives. Specifically, heat waves show relatively stable flow characteristics (high intrinsic predictability), but comparatively low practical predictability (large model spread/error). For 500 hPa geopotential height fields, the intrinsic predictability of heat waves is lowest at the event’s onset and decay. We relate these results to the physical processes governing Eastern Mediterranean summer heat waves: adiabatic descent of the air parcels over the region and the geographical origin of the air parcels over land prior to the onset of a heat wave. A detailed analysis of the mid-August 2010 record-breaking heat wave provides further insights into the range of different regional atmospheric configurations conducive to heat waves. We conclude that the dynamical systems approach can be a useful complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of Eastern Mediterranean heat waves.

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Trois phénomènes météorologiques exceptionnels durant l'automne 2020

La Météorologie ◽

10.37053/lameteorologie-2021-0031 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 115

Author(s):

Michaël Kreitz

Keyword(s):

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Precipitation Event ◽

Heavy Precipitation Event ◽

Weather Events

Durant cet automne 2020, la France est concernée par trois phénomènes météorologiques exceptionnels. Tout d'abord, le 19 septembre, un épisode cévenol intense apporte 700 mm en 12 heures sur la région de Valleraugue. Puis, le 1er octobre, la tempête Alex traverse le nord-ouest de la France, où les rafales atteignent 186 km/h à Belle-Île-en-Mer en raison de la présence d'un sting jet. Le lendemain, un nouvel épisode fortement précipitant déverse localement 500 mm de pluie sur les Alpes-Maritimes. Ces trois phénomènes ont tous relevé d'une vigilance rouge. During fall 2020, France is concerned by three extreme weather events. First, on september 19th , an intense cévenol event brings 700 mm in 12 hours over Valleraugue area. Then, on October the 1 st , Alex windstorm crosses northwestern France where gusts reach 186 km/h over Belle-Île-en-Mer because of the occurrence of a sting jet. The day after, a new heavy precipitation event spills a 500 mm rainfall locally over Alpes-Maritimes. All those three events received a red warning.

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A New Avenue of Research for Improving the Predictability of Weather Extremes - The Eastern Mediterranen as a Case Study

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2864 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Assaf Hochman ◽

Pinhas Alpert ◽

Hadas Saaroni ◽

Tzvi Harpaz ◽

Joaquim G. Pinto ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Dynamical Systems ◽

Systems Approach ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Weather Extremes ◽

Systems Perspective ◽

Weather Events ◽

The Mediterranean

Extreme weather events have long been considered challenging to predict. It is likely that global warming will trigger extreme weather in many regions of the globe and especially over the Mediterranean &#180;hot spot&#180;. Therefore, extreme weather events have been selected as one of the grand challenges of the World Climate Research Program.The intrinsic predictability of a weather system, or any dynamical system, depends on its persistence and its active number of degrees of freedom. Recent developments in dynamical systems theory allow to compute these metrics for atmospheric configurations (1). In most of the mid-latitudes, synoptic scale patterns exert a strong control on regional weather, thus, stimulating a broad interest, especially in weather forecasting. Recently, we have integrated the dynamical systems approach with a synoptic classification algorithm over the Eastern Mediterranean (2).&#160; It was shown that the dynamical systems perspective provides an extremely informative tool for evaluating the predictability of synoptic patterns and especially of weather extremes.The novel perspective, which leverages a dynamical systems approach to investigate the predictability of extreme weather events, outlines a new avenue of research that may be fruitfully applied at operational weather and climate forecasting services in the Mediterranean Region and around the globe.References<ol><li>Faranda D, Messori G, Yiou P. 2017. Dynamical Proxies of North Atlantic Predictability and Extremes. Scientific Reports 7, 412782017b. DOI: 10.1038/srep4127</li> <li>Hochman A, Alpert P, Harpaz T, Saaroni H, Messori G. 2019. A New Dynamical Systems Perspective on Atmospheric Predictability; Eastern Mediterranean Weather Regimes as a Case Study. Science Advances 5. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau0936</li> </ol>

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Extreme Weather Events and their Consequences

Papers on Global Change IGBP ◽

10.1515/igbp-2016-0005 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 59-69 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Ageing Population ◽

Weather Extremes ◽

Weather Events ◽

Increased Risk

Abstract The damage (in real terms after adjusting for inflation) caused by extreme weather events globally has increased dramatically over the past few decades. This is a result of an increase in the amplitude and frequency of weather extremes, as well as of human factors causing a widespread increase in levels of exposure and vulnerability. There are a number of reasons to consider that, in many regions of the globe, weather extremes (e.g. heat waves, droughts, forest fires, intense rainfall, floods and landslides) are becoming both yet more extreme and more frequent. Projections for the future based on climate and impact models point to a further strengthening of this trend. There has already been an increase in rainfall intensity in conditions of a warmer climate, and a continuation of this trend is expected, with adverse consequences for flood risk. However, the development of flood-prone areas and increase in damage potential are often the dominant factors underpinning growing flood damage and flood risk. In warmer climates, an increased risk of river and flash flooding caused by heavy rainfall, as well as an increasing risk of coastal flooding associated with sea level rise can be expected over large areas. By the same token, a reduction in the risk of snowmelt flooding events is projected in the warmer climate. Projections also indicate an increased risk of drought in many areas. The projections for climate change in Poland point to several risks associated with an increase in the frequency, intensity and severity of weather extremes (heat waves, intensive rainfall, flooding and landslides, coastal surges, drought during the growing season and winter, strong winds and pathogens associated with warming). Heat waves will become more frequent, more intense and more troublesome for the ageing population of Poland.

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Deoxynivalenol Occurrence in Triticale Crops in Romania during the 2012–2014 Period with Extreme Weather Events

Toxins ◽

10.3390/toxins13070456 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (7) ◽

pp. 456

Author(s):

Valeria Gagiu ◽

Elena Mateescu ◽

Alina Alexandra Dobre ◽

Irina Smeu ◽

Mirela Elena Cucu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

P Value ◽

Heavy Snowfall ◽

Factors Influencing ◽

Weather Events ◽

Aridity Indices ◽

Very High ◽

Continental Climate

This article aims to evaluate deoxynivalenol occurrence in triticale crops in Romania in years with extreme weather events (2012: Siberian anticyclone with cold waves and heavy snowfall; 2013 and 2014: “Vb” cyclones with heavy precipitation and floods in spring). The deoxynivalenol level in triticale samples (N = 236) was quantified by ELISA. In Romania, the extreme weather events favoured deoxynivalenol occurrence in triticale in Transylvania and the southern hilly area (44–47°N, 22–25°E) with a humid/balanced-humid temperate continental climate, luvisols and high/very high risk of floods. Maximum deoxynivalenol contamination was lower in the other regions, although heavy precipitation in May–July 2014 was higher, with chernozems having higher aridity. Multivariate analysis of the factors influencing deoxynivalenol occurrence in triticale showed at least a significant correlation for all components of variation source (agricultural year, agricultural region, average of deoxynivalenol, average air temperature, cumulative precipitation, soil moisture reserve, aridity indices) (p-value < 0.05). The spatial and geographic distribution of deoxynivalenol in cereals in the countries affected by the 2012–2014 extreme weather events revealed a higher contamination in Central Europe compared to southeastern and eastern Europe. Deoxynivalenol occurrence in cereals was favoured by local and regional agroclimatic factors and was amplified by extreme weather events.

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Reliability Framework for Characterizing Heat Wave and Cold Spell Events

10.21203/rs.3.rs-684055/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sanaz Moghim ◽

Mohammad Sina Jahangir

Keyword(s):

Heat Wave ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Probability Distributions ◽

Extreme Temperature ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Average Intensity ◽

Cold Spell ◽

Weather Events ◽

Two Cities

Abstract Extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells affect people’s lives. This study uses a probabilistic framework to evaluate heat waves and cold spells in different regions (Tehran in Iran and Vancouver in Canada). Average daily temperatures of meteorological stations of the two cities from 1995 to 2016 are used to identify four main indicators including intensity, average intensity, duration, and the rate of the occurrence. In addition, average intensities of the events are obtained from the MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) in each pixel of the two cities. To include possible uncertainties, the predictive probability distributions of the intensity and duration are derived using a Bayesian scheme and Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. The probability distributions of the indicators show that the most extreme temperature (lowest temperature) occurs during the cold spell. Results indicate that although Tehran is more probable to experience heat waves than Vancouver, both cities are more likely to be affected by the cold spell than the heat wave. The developed approach can be used to characterize other extreme weather events in any location.

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