scholarly journals Sub-seasonal forecasts of demand, wind power and solar power generation for 28 European Countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah C. Bloomfield ◽  
David J. Brayshaw ◽  
Paula L. M. Gonzalez ◽  
Andrew Charlton-Perez
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services

Abstract. Electricity systems are becoming increasingly exposed to weather. The need for high-quality meteorological forecasts for managing risk across all timescales has therefore never been greater. This paper seeks to extend the uptake of meteorological data in the power systems modelling community to include probabilistic meteorological forecasts at sub-seasonal lead-times. Such forecasts are growing in skill and are receiving considerable attention in power system risk management and energy trading. Despite this interest, these forecasts are rarely evaluated in power system terms and technical barriers frequently prohibit use by non-meteorological specialists. This paper therefore presents data produced through a new EU climate services program Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting for Energy (S2S4E). The data corresponds to a suite of well-documented, easy-to-use, self-consistent daily- and nationally-aggregated time-series for wind power, solar power and electricity demand across 28 European countries. The DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.17864/1947.275 will be activated after the paper has been accepted for publication. In the meantime, the data is accessible via https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/275/, (Gonzalez et al., 2020). The data includes a set of daily ensemble reforecasts from two leading forecast systems spanning 20-years (ECMWF, 1996–2016) and 11-years (NCEP, 1999–2010). The reforecasts containing multiple plausible realisations of daily-weather and power data for up to 6 weeks in the future. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first time fully calibrated and post-processed daily power system forecast set has been published, and this is the primary purpose of this paper. A brief review of forecast skill in each of the individual primary power system properties and the composite property demand-net-renewables is presented, focusing on the winter season. The forecast systems contain additional skill over climatological expectation for weekly-average forecasts at extended lead-times, though this skill depends on the nature of the forecast metric considered. This highlights the need for greater collaboration between the energy- and meteorological research communities to develop applications, and it is hoped that publishing these data and tools will support this.

scholarly journals Sub-seasonal forecasts of demand and wind power and solar power generation for 28 European countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2259-2274
Author(s):  
Hannah C. Bloomfield ◽  
David J. Brayshaw ◽  
Paula L. M. Gonzalez ◽  
Andrew Charlton-Perez
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services

Abstract. Electricity systems are becoming increasingly exposed to weather. The need for high-quality meteorological forecasts for managing risk across all timescales has therefore never been greater. This paper seeks to extend the uptake of meteorological data in the power systems modelling community to include probabilistic meteorological forecasts at sub-seasonal lead times. Such forecasts are growing in skill and are receiving considerable attention in power system risk management and energy trading. Despite this interest, these forecasts are rarely evaluated in power system terms, and technical barriers frequently prohibit use by non-meteorological specialists. This paper therefore presents data produced through a new EU climate services programme Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting for Energy (S2S4E). The data correspond to a suite of well-documented, easy-to-use, self-consistent daily and nationally aggregated time series for wind power, solar power and electricity demand across 28 European countries. The data are accessible from https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.275 (Gonzalez et al., 2020). The data include a set of daily ensemble reforecasts from two leading forecast systems spanning 20 years (ECMWF, an 11-member ensemble, with twice-weekly starts for 1996–2016, totalling 22 880 forecasts) and 11 years (NCEP, a 12-member lagged-ensemble, constructed to match the start dates from the ECMWF forecast from 1999–2010, totalling 14 976 forecasts). The reforecasts contain multiple plausible realisations of daily weather and power data for up to 6 weeks in the future. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time a fully calibrated and post-processed daily power system forecast set has been published, and this is the primary purpose of this paper. A brief review of forecast skill in each of the individual primary power system properties and a composite property is presented, focusing on the winter season. The forecast systems contain additional skill over climatological expectation for weekly-average forecasts at extended lead times, though this skill depends on the nature of the forecast metric considered. This highlights the need for greater collaboration between the energy and meteorological research communities to develop applications, and it is hoped that publishing these data and tools will support this.

scholarly journals A Novel Extension Decision-Making Method for Selecting Solar Power Systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Meng-Hui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Solar System ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Important Task ◽  
Extension Theory ◽  
Solar Systems ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Generating Capacity

Due to the complex parameters of a solar power system, the designer not only must think about the load demand but also needs to consider the price, weight, and annual power generating capacity (APGC) and maximum power of the solar system. It is an important task to find the optimal solar power system with many parameters. Therefore, this paper presents a novel decision-making method based on the extension theory; we call it extension decision-making method (EDMM). Using the EDMM can make it quick to select the optimal solar power system. The paper proposed this method not only to provide a useful estimated tool for the solar system engineers but also to supply the important reference with the installation of solar systems to the consumer.

scholarly journals Utilizing Energy Storage for Operational Adequacy of Wind-Integrated Bulk Power Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (17) ◽  
pp. 5964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tej Krishna Shrestha ◽  
Rajesh Karki
Keyword(s):  
Energy Storage ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
State Probability ◽  
Wind Generation ◽  
System State ◽  
Operational Strategies ◽  
Bulk Power

Renewable energy resources like wind generation are being rapidly integrated into modern power systems. Energy storage systems (ESS) are being viewed as a game-changer for renewable integration due to their ability to absorb the variability and uncertainty arising from the wind generation. While abundant literature is available on system adequacy and operational reliability evaluation, operational adequacy studies considering wind and energy storage have received very little attention, despite their elevated significance. This work presents a novel framework that integrates wind power and energy storage models to a bulk power system model to sequentially evaluate the operational adequacy in the operational mission time. The analytical models are developed using a dynamic system state probability evaluation approach by incorporating a system state probability estimation technique, wind power probability distribution, state enumeration, state transition matrix, and time series analysis in order to quantify the operational adequacy of a bulk power system integrated with wind power and ESS. The loss of load probability (LOLP) is used as the operational adequacy index to quantify the spatio-temporal variation in risk resulting from the generation and load variations, their distribution on the network structure, and the operational strategies of the integrated ESS. The proposed framework is aimed to serve as a guideline for operational planning, thereby simplifying the decision-making process for system operators while considering resources like wind and energy storage facilities. The methodology is applied to a test system to quantify the reliability and economic benefits accrued from different operational strategies of energy storage in response to wind generation and other operational objectives in different system scenarios.

Preliminary Study on the Influence of Wind Power on Low-Frequency Oscillation under Outward Transmitting Thermal Generated Power Bundled with Wind Power Typical Scene

2013 ◽  
Vol 391 ◽  
pp. 271-276
Author(s):  
Peng Li ◽  
Ning Bo Wang ◽  
De Zhi Chen ◽  
Xiao Rong Zhu ◽  
Yun Ting Song
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Reactive Power ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Frequency Oscillation ◽  
Low Frequency Oscillation

Increasing penetration level of wind power integration has a significant impact on low-frequency oscillations of power systems. Based on PSD-BPA simulation software, time domain simulation analysis and eigenvalue analysis are employed to investigate its effect on power system low-frequency oscillation characteristic in an outward transmitting thermal generated power bundled with wind power illustrative power system. System damping enhances markedly and the risk of low-frequency oscillation reduce when the generation of wind farm increase. In addition, dynamic reactive power compensations apply to wind farm, and the simulation result indicates that it can improve dynamic stability and enhance the system damping.

Effect of Large-Scale Wind Power Integration on Inter-Area Oscillation of Power System

2014 ◽  
Vol 672-674 ◽  
pp. 227-232
Author(s):  
Xu Zhi Luo ◽  
Hai Feng Li ◽  
Hua Dong Sun ◽  
An Si Wang ◽  
De Zhi Chen
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Oscillation Mode ◽  
Equivalent Model ◽  
Synchronous Generators ◽  
Actual System ◽  
Oscillation Modes ◽  
The Impact

With the fast development of the wind power, security constraints of power systems have become the bottleneck of the acceptable capacity for wind power. The underdamping oscillation modes of the inter-area is an important aspect of the constraints. In this paper, an equivalent model of a power system with wind plants has been established, and the impact of the integration of the large-scale wind power on the inter-area oscillation modes has been studied based on the frequency-domain and time-domain simulations. The results indicate that the damping of inter-area oscillation mode can be enhanced by the replacement of synchronous generators (SGs) with the wind generators. The enhancing degree is up to the participation value of the SGs replaced. The conclusion has been verified by the actual system example of Xinjiang-Northwest grid. It can provide a reference for system programming and operation.

Seasonal forecasts of discharge in the Upper Danube upstream of Vienna

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Martin Santos ◽  
Mathew Herrnegger ◽  
Hubert Holzmann ◽  
Kristina Fröhlich ◽  
Jennifer Ostermüller
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support Systems ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Forecasts

<p>In the last years, the demand of reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts has increased with the aim of incorporating them into decision support systems for e.g. river navigation, power plant operation  or drought risk management. Recently, the concept of “climate services” has gained stronger attention in Europe, thereby incorporating useful information derived from climate predictions and projections that support adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk management. In the frame of one of these climate services currently in development, Clim2Power project, a seasonal forecast system for discharge in the Upper Danube upstream Vienna has been established.</p><p>Seasonal forecasts are generated using a dynamical approach running a hydrological model (COSERO) with forecasted climate input provided by DWD (Germany's National Meterological Service). The climate forecasts are based on a large ensemble of predictions, available up to 6 months. After the application of a statistical downscaling method, the climate forecasts have a spatial resolution of 6km. The predictability is related to two main contributions: meteorological forcings (i.e. temperature and precipitation predictability) and initial basin states at the time the forecast is issued.</p><p>The Upper Danube basin with a catchment area of approx. 100.000 km<sup>2</sup> is characterized by complex topography dominated by the Alps, elevations range from about 150 m to slightly under 4000 m. Therefore, the skill of the seasonal forecast is highly influenced by the resolution of the meteorological data, and likewise by the hydrological processes that take place, especially, regarding melting processes. Downscaled hindcasts over the last 20 years, generated with the identical setup as the seasonal forecasts, are used in this contribution to assess the skill of the seasonal forecasts. In addition, some post-processing corrections, based on historical observations, are used to adjust the bias of the forecasts. Nevertheless, remaining non-systematic error patterns do not allow complete bias correction. Apart from the biases, also the correlation patterns show a limited skill. We conclude that the seasonal discharge forecasting is still not sufficient to incorporate the results into water resources decision support systems within the studied Alpine basins.</p>

Understanding and forecasting the subseasonal meteorological drivers of the European electricity system in winter

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Bloomfield ◽  
David Brayshaw ◽  
Andrew Charlton-Perez ◽  
Paula Gonzalez ◽  
David Livings
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Weather Regime ◽  
Weather Sensitivity ◽  
Electricity System

<p><span>Renewable electricity is a key enabling step to</span><span> </span><span>globally </span>decarboni<span>se the</span> energy<span> sector. Europe is at the forefront of renewable deployment and this has dramatically increased the weather sensitivity of the continent's power systems. Despite the importance of weather to energy systems, the meteorological drivers remain difficult to identify, and are poorly understood. This study presents a new and generally applicable approach, targeted circulation types (TCTs). In contrast to standard meteorological circulation typing methods, such as weather regimes, TCTs convolve the weather sensitivity of an impacted system of interest (in this case, the electricity system) with the intrinsic structures of the atmospheric circulation to identify its meteorological drivers.</span></p><p><span>A new, freely available, 38 year reanalysis-based reconstruction of daily electricity demand, wind power and solar power generation across Europe is created and used to identify the winter large</span>‐<span>scale circulation patterns of most interest to the European electricity grid. TCTs are shown to provide greater explanatory power for power system variability and extremes compared with standard weather regime analysis. Two new pairs of atmospheric patterns are highlighted, both of which have marked and extensive impacts on the European power system. The first pair resembles the meridional surface pressure dipole of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but shifted eastward into Europe and noticeably strengthened, while the second pair is weaker and corresponds to surface pressure anomalies over Central Southern and Eastern Europe. These patterns are shown to be robust features of the </span><span>“</span><span>present-day</span><span>”</span><span> European power system.</span></p><p><span> </span><span>The use of TCTs to increase the utility and skill of subseasonal forecasts during the winter season is discussed.  It is shown that TCTs provide additional useful information compared to standard </span><span>“</span><span>grid-point</span><span>”</span><span> or weather-regime techniques for applications in energy system forecasting and operations.</span></p>

scholarly journals Artificial bee colony algorithm for economic load dispatch with wind power energy

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Safari ◽  
Davoud Sheibai
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Artificial Bee Colony ◽  
Economic Load Dispatch ◽  
Power Networks ◽  
Power Generator ◽  
Bee Colony ◽  
Wind Power Generator

This paper presents an efficient Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm for solving large scale economic load dispatch (ELD) problems in power networks. To realize the ELD, the valve-point loading effect, system load demand, power losses, ramp rate limits and prohibited operation zones are considered here. Simulations were performed on four different power systems with 3, 6, 15 and 40 generating units and the results are compared with two forms of power systems, one power system is with a wind power generator and other power system is without a wind power generator. The results of this study reveal that the proposed approach is able to find appreciable ELD solutions than those of previous algorithms.

scholarly journals Development of seasonal climate outlooks for agriculture in Finland

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 269-277
Author(s):  
Andrea Vajda ◽  
Otto Hyvärinen
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Seasonal Climate ◽  
Crop Choice ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
Dry Conditions

Abstract. Seasonal climate forecast products offer useful information for farmers supporting them in planning and making decisions in their management practices, such as crop choice, planting and harvesting time, and water management. Driven by the need of stakeholders for tailored seasonal forecast products, our goal was to assess the applicability of seasonal forecast outputs in agriculture and to develop and pilot with stakeholders a set of seasonal climate outlooks for this sector in Finland. Finnish end users were involved in both the design and testing of the outlooks during the first pilot season of 2019. The seasonal climate outlooks were developed using the SEAS5 seasonal forecast system provided by ECMWF. To improve the prediction skill of the seasonal forecast data, several bias adjustment approaches were evaluated. The tested methods increased the quality of temperature forecast, but no suitable approach was found for eliminating the biases from precipitation data. Besides the widely applied indices, such as mean temperature, growing degree days, cold spell duration, total precipitation and dry conditions, new sector-oriented indices (such as progress of growing season) have been implemented and issued for various lead times (up to 3 months). The first result of forecast evaluation, the development of seasonal forecast indices and the first pilot season of May–October 2019 are presented. We found that the temperature-based outlooks performed well, with better performance skills for short lead times, providing useful information for the farmers in activity management. Precipitation indices had poor skills for each forecasted month, and further research is needed for improving the quality of forecast for Finland. The farmers who have tested the seasonal climate outlooks considered those beneficial and valuable, helping them in planning their activities. Following the first pilot season, further research and implementation work took place to improve our understanding of the skill of seasonal forecasts and increase the quality of tailored seasonal climate services.

scholarly journals A study of the transient processes in the physical model of the electric power systems with predominant part of the renewable energy sources

2021 ◽  
Vol 286 ◽  
pp. 02009
Author(s):  
Ivaylo Nedelchev ◽  
Hristo Zhivomirov ◽  
Yoncho Kamenov
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Physical Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Electric Power Systems ◽  
Electric Power System ◽  
Transient Processes ◽  
Energy Sources

The renewable energy take part in the most of the electric power systems in the modern world. The part of this type of energy in the global electric power system, as well as in the local scale, increases with the setting the stricter requirements for decreasing the level of the carbon dioxide emissions. This is the result of the newest international conventions and decision for saving the nature. By these conditions, the electric power systems are forced to work with more different types of energy sources: wind power, photovoltaic, biomass plants etc. Switching of such miscellaneous power sources, leads to complicated transient processes, which are developed due to specific electrical parameters, especially harmonic components, of the synchronous generators, photovoltaic and wind power plants. This paper represents data from measurements of the transient processes into the physical model of the electric power system with predominant part of renewable energy and assesses the applicability of the model. For conducting this study, the multichannel DAQ measurement system is used.

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