scholarly journals Simulating climate warming scenarios with intentionally biased bootstrapping and its implications for precipitation

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taesam Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Good Alternative ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Temperature Variable ◽  
Temperature Scenario ◽  
Hydrological Variables

Abstract. The outputs from GCMs provide useful information about the rate and magnitude of future climate change. The temperature variable is the most reliable of the GCM outputs. However, hydrological variables (e.g., precipitation) from GCM outputs for future climate change possess an uncertainty that is too high for practical use. Therefore, a method, called intentionally biased bootstrapping (IBB), that simulates the increase of the temperature variable by a certain level as ascertained from observed global warming data is proposed. In addition, precipitation data was resampled by employing a block-wise sampling technique associated with the temperature simulation. In summary, a warming temperature scenario is simulated and the corresponding precipitation values whose time indices are the same as the one of the simulated warming temperature scenario. The proposed method was validated with annual precipitation data by truncating the recent years of the record. The proposed model was also employed to assess the future changes in seasonal precipitation in South Korea within a global warming scenario as well as in weekly time scale. The results illustrate that the proposed method is a good alternative for assessing the variation of hydrological variables such as precipitation under the warming condition.

scholarly journals Climate change inspector with intentionally biased bootstrapping (CCIIBB ver. 1.0) – methodology development

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 525-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taesam Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Temperature Variable ◽  
Temperature Scenario ◽  
Hydrological Variables

Abstract. The outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) provide useful information about the rate and magnitude of future climate change. The temperature variable is more reliable than other variables in GCM outputs. However, hydrological variables (e.g., precipitation) from GCM outputs for future climate change possess an uncertainty that is too high for practical use. Therefore, a method called intentionally biased bootstrapping (IBB), which simulates the increase of the temperature variable by a certain level as ascertained from observed global warming data, is proposed. In addition, precipitation data were resampled by employing a block-wise sampling technique associated with the temperature simulation. In summary, a warming temperature scenario is simulated, along with the corresponding precipitation values whose time indices are the same as those of the simulated warming temperature scenario. The proposed method was validated with annual precipitation data by truncating the recent years of the record. The proposed model was also employed to assess the future changes in seasonal precipitation in South Korea within a global warming scenario as well as in weekly timescales. The results illustrate that the proposed method is a good alternative for assessing the variation of hydrological variables such as precipitation under the warming condition.

Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (5) ◽  
pp. 980-990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shin-ichi Ito ◽  
Takeshi Okunishi ◽  
Michio J. Kishi ◽  
Muyin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Migration Pattern ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Pacific Saury ◽  
Ecological Responses ◽  
Cololabis Saira

Abstract Ito, S-I., Okunishi, T., Kishi, M. J., and Wang, M. 2013. Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 980–990. An ecosystem-based bioenergetics model was used to investigate the responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to global warming. The model was forced by the projected sea surface temperature (SST) generated by climate models that formed the bases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4). Twelve climate models, which reproduced the Pacific Decadal Oscillation well compared with observations, were selected and B1, A1B, and A2 emissions scenarios were used. In total, 33 ensemble simulations were conducted, of which 24 (73%) showed a decrease in wet weight of Pacific saury. The migration pattern was modified in 11 (33%) cases. In these cases, higher SST and size reduction under global warming prevented or delayed the southern migration of saury in winter. As a result, egg production was enhanced by the higher availability of prey plankton in the modified spawning region. A case study to separate the direct temperature effects was conducted, in which prey plankton density was assumed to be the same as the control run. The results suggest that an SST increase will directly reduce juvenile growth, whereas a prey plankton density decrease has an influence on the growth of adults and migration pattern, and hence egg production.

scholarly journals Global warming not so harmful for all plants - response of holomycotrophic orchid species for the future climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Kolanowska ◽  
Marta Kras ◽  
Monika Lipińska ◽  
Katarzyna Mystkowska ◽  
Dariusz L. Szlachetko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Orchid Species ◽  
The Future

Quantifying sensitivity and exposure of multiple ecosystem services to climate change: A case study of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Hua ◽  
Wenwu Zhao ◽  
Paulo Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Emission Pathway ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

<p><strong>        </strong>Global warming has imposed a positive or adverse impact on ecosystem services and it will be further amplified in vulnerable areas like Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, there is a limited understanding of spatial interaction among ecosystem services and their climatic drivers at a fine resolution, regardless of the historical or future periods. This study attempted to fill this gap by detecting sensitivity and exposure of ecosystem services to climate change based on spatial moving window method, combined with Modis-based satellite datasets and various future scenarios dataset. We found that Carbon Sequence and Oxygen Production (CSOP) and habitat quality experienced significant growth, while water retention (WR) showed a fluctuation trend on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. For CSOP, 56.94% of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, which is nearly twice the ones with negative sensitivity (26.72%). And there is an evident positive sensitivity between WR and precipitation. Also, there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes. A high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5) increases the intensity of exposure on ecosystem services than low-emission pathway, and disturbances accompanied by future climate change at specific elevation intervals should not be ignored. Identifying spatial association among the ecosystem services and climatic drivers is helpful for targeted management and sustainable development of soil in the context of global warming.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong></p><p>Ecosystem services, Climate change, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Sensitivity, Exposure</p>

Responses of Irish Vegetation to Future Climate Change

2006 ◽  
Vol 106 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael B. Jones ◽  
Alison Donnelly ◽  
Fabrizio Albanito
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

Future climate change and its impacts over small island states

2002 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 179-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Lal ◽  
H Harasawa ◽  
K Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Island States ◽  
Small Island States

Supplemental Material to the A&WMA 2008 Critical Review "Prospects for Future Climate Change and the Reasons for Early Action"

2008 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Edgerton ◽  
Michael MacCracken ◽  
Meng-Dawn Cheng ◽  
Edwin Corporan ◽  
Matthew DeWitt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Early Action
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