Quantifying sensitivity and exposure of multiple ecosystem services to climate change: A case study of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Hua ◽  
Wenwu Zhao ◽  
Paulo Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Emission Pathway ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

<p><strong>        </strong>Global warming has imposed a positive or adverse impact on ecosystem services and it will be further amplified in vulnerable areas like Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, there is a limited understanding of spatial interaction among ecosystem services and their climatic drivers at a fine resolution, regardless of the historical or future periods. This study attempted to fill this gap by detecting sensitivity and exposure of ecosystem services to climate change based on spatial moving window method, combined with Modis-based satellite datasets and various future scenarios dataset. We found that Carbon Sequence and Oxygen Production (CSOP) and habitat quality experienced significant growth, while water retention (WR) showed a fluctuation trend on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. For CSOP, 56.94% of the pixels showed a positive sensitivity to climate change, which is nearly twice the ones with negative sensitivity (26.72%). And there is an evident positive sensitivity between WR and precipitation. Also, there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in the exposure of ecosystem services to future climate changes. A high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5) increases the intensity of exposure on ecosystem services than low-emission pathway, and disturbances accompanied by future climate change at specific elevation intervals should not be ignored. Identifying spatial association among the ecosystem services and climatic drivers is helpful for targeted management and sustainable development of soil in the context of global warming.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong></p><p>Ecosystem services, Climate change, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Sensitivity, Exposure</p>

scholarly journals Carbon Balance of Grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Future Climate Change: A Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 533
Author(s):  
Rong Leng ◽  
Quanzhi Yuan ◽  
Yushuang Wang ◽  
Qian Kuang ◽  
Ping Ren
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Balance Study ◽  
Model Projection ◽  
Climatic Environment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Climate change has brought significant impacts upon the natural ecological environment and human social development. The future carbon balance study has become an important part of research on the impacts of climate change. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a key area for studying climate change. Grassland, as a typical ecosystem of the QTP, embodies the sensitivity of the plateau to the climatic environment, so the carbon balance of grassland under future climate change conditions is important for studying global change. This paper reviewed the literature on carbon balance projection of grassland on the QTP under climate change. Two types of research methods were used to analyze and discuss the studies’ results, including experimental scenario projection and model projection. The experiment projected that appropriate temperature and moisture could enhance the carbon sink capacity of a grassland ecosystem, where moisture played a leading role. The model projection results showed that the carbon balance under different spatial and temporal scales were different. Although both can project the carbon balance of the study area, there are still some uncertainties. In addition, this research area should also consider the influence of human activity and plateau pikas to more accurately project the future carbon balance.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Shi ◽  
Niyati Naudiyal ◽  
Jinniu Wang ◽  
Narayan Prasad Gaire ◽  
Yan Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Southeastern Margin ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

scholarly journals Simulating climate warming scenarios with intentionally biased bootstrapping and its implications for precipitation

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taesam Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Good Alternative ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Temperature Variable ◽  
Temperature Scenario ◽  
Hydrological Variables

Abstract. The outputs from GCMs provide useful information about the rate and magnitude of future climate change. The temperature variable is the most reliable of the GCM outputs. However, hydrological variables (e.g., precipitation) from GCM outputs for future climate change possess an uncertainty that is too high for practical use. Therefore, a method, called intentionally biased bootstrapping (IBB), that simulates the increase of the temperature variable by a certain level as ascertained from observed global warming data is proposed. In addition, precipitation data was resampled by employing a block-wise sampling technique associated with the temperature simulation. In summary, a warming temperature scenario is simulated and the corresponding precipitation values whose time indices are the same as the one of the simulated warming temperature scenario. The proposed method was validated with annual precipitation data by truncating the recent years of the record. The proposed model was also employed to assess the future changes in seasonal precipitation in South Korea within a global warming scenario as well as in weekly time scale. The results illustrate that the proposed method is a good alternative for assessing the variation of hydrological variables such as precipitation under the warming condition.

scholarly journals Locomotion of Slope Geohazards Responding to Climate Change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Its Adjacent Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10488
Author(s):  
Yiru Jia ◽  
Jifu Liu ◽  
Lanlan Guo ◽  
Zhifei Deng ◽  
Jiaoyang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Spatial Location ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
The South ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Slope geohazards, which cause significant social, economic and environmental losses, have been increasing worldwide over the last few decades. Climate change-induced higher temperatures and shifted precipitation patterns enhance the slope geohazard risks. This study traced the spatial transference of slope geohazards in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and investigated the potential climatic factors. The results show that 93% of slope geohazards occurred in seasonally frozen regions, 2.6% of which were located in permafrost regions, with an average altitude of 3818 m. The slope geohazards are mainly concentrated at 1493–1988 m. Over time, the altitude of the slope geohazards was gradually increased, and the mean altitude tended to spread from 1984 m to 2562 m by 2009, while the slope gradient varied only slightly. The number of slope geohazards increased with time and was most obvious in spring, especially in the areas above an altitude of 3000 m. The increase in temperature and precipitation in spring may be an important reason for this phenomenon, because the results suggest that the rate of air warming and precipitation at geohazard sites increased gradually. Based on the observation of the spatial location, altitude and temperature growth rate of slope geohazards, it is noted that new geohazard clusters (NGCs) appear in the study area, and there is still a possibility of migration under the future climate conditions. Based on future climate forecast data, we estimate that the low-, moderate- and high-sensitivity areas of the QTP will be mainly south of 30° N in 2030, will extend to the south of 33° N in 2060 and will continue to expand to the south of 35° N in 2099; we also estimate that the proportion of high-sensitivity areas will increase from 10.93% in 2030 to 14.17% in 2060 and 17.48% in 2099.

scholarly journals Ecosystem services show variable responses to future climate conditions in the Colombian páramos

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e11370
Author(s):  
Mauricio Diazgranados ◽  
Carolina Tovar ◽  
Thomas R. Etherington ◽  
Paula A. Rodríguez-Zorro ◽  
Carolina Castellanos-Castro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Key Species

Background The páramos, the high-elevation ecosystems of the northern Andes, are well-known for their high species richness and provide a variety of ecosystem services to local subsistence-based communities and regional urbanizations. Climate change is expected to negatively affect the provision of these services, but the level of this impact is still unclear. Here we assess future climate change impact on the ecosystem services provided by the critically important páramos of the department of Boyacá in Colombia, of which over 25% of its territory is páramo. Methods We first performed an extensive literature review to identify useful species of Boyacá, and selected 103 key plant species that, based on their uses, support the provision of ecosystem services in the páramos. We collated occurrence information for each key species and using a Mahalanobis distance approach we applied climate niche modelling for current and future conditions. Results We show an overall tendency of reduction in area for all ecosystem services under future climate conditions (mostly a loss of 10% but reaching up to a loss of 40%), but we observe also increases, and responses differ in intensity loss. Services such as Food for animals, Material and Medicinal, show a high range of changes that includes both positive and negative outcomes, while for Food for humans the responses are mostly substantially negative. Responses are less extreme than those projected for individual species but are often complex because a given ecosystem service is provided by several species. As the level of functional or ecological redundancy between species is not yet known, there is an urgency to expand our knowledge on páramos ecosystem services for more species. Our results are crucial for decision-makers, social and conservation organizations to support sustainable strategies to monitor and mitigate the potential consequences of climate change for human livelihoods in mountainous settings.

Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (5) ◽  
pp. 980-990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shin-ichi Ito ◽  
Takeshi Okunishi ◽  
Michio J. Kishi ◽  
Muyin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Egg Production ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Migration Pattern ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Pacific Saury ◽  
Ecological Responses ◽  
Cololabis Saira

Abstract Ito, S-I., Okunishi, T., Kishi, M. J., and Wang, M. 2013. Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 980–990. An ecosystem-based bioenergetics model was used to investigate the responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to global warming. The model was forced by the projected sea surface temperature (SST) generated by climate models that formed the bases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4). Twelve climate models, which reproduced the Pacific Decadal Oscillation well compared with observations, were selected and B1, A1B, and A2 emissions scenarios were used. In total, 33 ensemble simulations were conducted, of which 24 (73%) showed a decrease in wet weight of Pacific saury. The migration pattern was modified in 11 (33%) cases. In these cases, higher SST and size reduction under global warming prevented or delayed the southern migration of saury in winter. As a result, egg production was enhanced by the higher availability of prey plankton in the modified spawning region. A case study to separate the direct temperature effects was conducted, in which prey plankton density was assumed to be the same as the control run. The results suggest that an SST increase will directly reduce juvenile growth, whereas a prey plankton density decrease has an influence on the growth of adults and migration pattern, and hence egg production.

BioDiv-Support: scenario-based decision support tool for policy planning and adaptation to future challenges in biodiversity and ecosystem services 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilla Andersson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
The Impact

<p>Biodiversity includes any type of living variation, from the ecosystem level to genetic variation within organisms. The greatest threats to biodiversity is climate change, destruction of habitats and other human activities. High-altitude mountain regions are pristine environments, with historically small impacts from air pollution, but at risk of being disproportionately impacted by climate change. We focus on three mountainous regions: the Scandinavian Mountains, the Guadarrama Mountains in Spain, and the Pyrenees in France, Andorra and Spain. We study the impact of drivers of change of biodiversity such as future climate change, increased incidences of wild fires, emissions from new shipping routes in the Arctic as ice sheets are melting, human impacts on land use and management practices (such as reindeer grazing) and air pollution.</p><p>We simulate future climate change using WRF and a convective permitting climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, with a spatial resolution of 3km. The high resolution strongly improves the representation of precipitation compared to coarser scale simulations (Lind et al., 2020). We use these simulations to develop future scenarios of air pollution load, using two well established chemistry transport models (MATCH and CHIMERE; Marécal et al., 2015). These climate and air pollution scenarios are subsequently used, together with management scenarios, to develop scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem services. These scenarios are developed applying a process-based dynamic vegetation and biogeochemistry model, LPJ-GUESS (Smith et al., 2014). </p><p>The scenarios, representing mid-21<sup>st</sup> century, will be made available through a web-based planning tool, where local stakeholders in each region can explore the project results to understand how scenarios of climate change, air pollution and policy development will affect these ecosystems. Local stakeholders are involved throughout the project, such as reindeer herder communities, regional county boards and national authorities, and in a time of changing climate and a global pandemic we have learned the necessity for flexibility in such interactions.</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>Lind et al. 2020., Climate Dynamics 55, 1893-1912.</p><p>Marécal et al., 2015. Geosci. Mod. Dev. 8, 2777-2813.</p><p>Smith et al. 2014 Biogeosciences 11, 2027-2054.</p>

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