scholarly journals Nemo-Nordic 2.0: Operational marine forecast model for the Baltic Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuomas Kärnä ◽  
Patrik Ljungemyr ◽  
Saeed Falahat ◽  
Ida Ringgaard ◽  
Lars Axell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. This paper describes Nemo-Nordic 2.0, an operational marine forecast model for the Baltic Sea. The model is based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) circulation model and the previous Nemo-Nordic 1.0 configuration by Hordoir et al. [Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 363–386, 2019]. The most notable updates include the switch from NEMO version 3.6 to 4.0, updated model bathymetry and revised bottom friction formulation. The model domain covers the Baltic and the North Seas with approximately 1 nautical mile resolution. Vertical grid resolution has been increased from 3 to 1 m in the surface layer. In addition, the numerical solver configuration has been revised to reduce artificial mixing to improve the representation of inflow events. Sea-ice is modeled with the SI3 model instead of LIM3. The model is validated against sea level, water temperature and salinity observations, as well as Baltic Sea ice chart data for a two-year hindcast simulation. Sea level root mean square deviation (RMSD) is typically within 10 cm throughout the Baltic basin. Seasonal sea surface temperature variation is well captured, although the model exhibits a negative bias of approximately −0.5 °C. Salinity RMSD is typically below 1.5 g/kg. The model captures the 2014 Major Baltic Inflow event and its propagation to the Gotland Deep. The skill analysis demonstrates that Nemo-Nordic 2.0 can reproduce the hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea.

scholarly journals Nemo-Nordic 2.0: operational marine forecast model for the Baltic Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 5731-5749
Author(s):  
Tuomas Kärnä ◽  
Patrik Ljungemyr ◽  
Saeed Falahat ◽  
Ida Ringgaard ◽  
Lars Axell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. This paper describes Nemo-Nordic 2.0, an operational marine model for the Baltic Sea. The model is used for both near-real-time forecasts and hindcast purposes. It provides estimates of sea surface height, water temperature, salinity, and velocity, as well as sea ice concentration and thickness. The model is based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) circulation model and the previous Nemo-Nordic 1.0 configuration by Hordoir et al. (2019). The most notable updates include the switch from NEMO version 3.6 to 4.0, updated model bathymetry, and revised bottom friction formulation. The model domain covers the Baltic Sea and the North Sea with approximately 1 nmi resolution. Vertical grid resolution has been increased from 3 to 1 m in the surface layer. In addition, the numerical solver configuration has been revised to reduce artificial mixing to improve the representation of inflow events. Sea ice is modeled with the SI3 model instead of LIM3. The model is validated against sea level, water temperature, and salinity observations, as well as Baltic Sea ice chart data for a 2-year hindcast simulation (October 2014 to September 2016). Sea level root mean square deviation (RMSD) is typically within 10 cm throughout the Baltic basin. Seasonal sea surface temperature variation is well captured, although the model exhibits a negative bias of approximately −0.5 ∘C. Salinity RMSD is typically below 1.5 g kg−1. The model captures the 2014 major Baltic inflow event and its propagation to the Gotland Deep. The model assessment demonstrates that Nemo-Nordic 2.0 can reproduce the hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea.

scholarly journals Effects of surface current/wind interaction in an eddy-rich general ocean circulation simulation of the Baltic Sea

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Dietze ◽  
U. Löptien
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Algal Blooms ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Surface Currents ◽  
Wind Effects ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. Deoxygenation in the Baltic Sea endangers fish yields and favours noxious algal blooms. Yet, vertical transport processes ventilating the oxygen-deprived waters at depth and replenishing nutrient-deprived surface waters (thereby fuelling export of organic matter to depth), are not comprehensively understood. Here, we investigate the effects of the interaction between surface currents and winds (also referred to as eddy/wind effects) on upwelling in an eddy-rich general ocean circulation model of the Baltic Sea. Contrary to expectations we find that accounting for current/wind effects does inhibit the overall vertical exchange between oxygenated surface waters and oxygen-deprived water at depth. At major upwelling sites, however, as e.g. off the south coast of Sweden and Finland, the reverse holds: the interaction between topographically steered surface currents with winds blowing over the sea results in a climatological sea surface temperature cooling of 0.5 K. This implies that current/wind effects drive substantial local upwelling of cold and nutrient-replete waters.

scholarly journals Decomposing Mean Sea Level Rise in a Semi-Enclosed Basin, the Baltic Sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 3089-3108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulf Gräwe ◽  
Knut Klingbeil ◽  
Jessica Kelln ◽  
Sönke Dangendorf
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Spatial Variations ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic Basin ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
A Value ◽  
Regional Ocean Model ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract We analyzed changes in mean sea level (MSL) for the period 1950–2015 using a regional ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Sensitivity experiments allowed us to separate external from local drivers and to investigate individual forcing agents triggering basin-internal spatial variations. The model reveals a basin-average MSL rise (MSLR) of 2.08 ± 0.49 mm yr−1, a value that is slightly larger than the simultaneous global average of 1.63 ± 0.32 mm yr−1. This MSLR is, however, spatially highly nonuniform with lower than average increases in the southwestern part (1.71 ± 0.51 mm yr−1) and higher than average rates in the northeastern parts (2.34 ± 1.05 mm yr−1). While 75% of the basin-average MSL externally enters the Baltic basin as a mass signal from the adjacent North Sea, intensified westerly winds and a poleward shift of low pressure systems explain the majority of the spatial variations in the rates. Minor contributions stem from local changes in baroclinicity leading to a basin-internal redistribution of water masses. An observed increase in local ocean temperature further adds to the total basinwide MSLR through thermal expansion but has little effect on the spatial pattern. To test the robustness of these results, we further assessed the sensitivity to six different atmospheric surface forcing reanalysis products over their common period from 1980 to 2005. The ensemble runs indicated that there are significant differences between individual ensemble members increasing the total trend uncertainty for the basin average by 0.22 mm yr−1 (95% confidence intervals). Locally the uncertainty varies from 0.05 mm yr−1 in the central part to up to 0.4 mm yr−1 along the coasts.

scholarly journals Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sitar Karabil ◽  
Eduardo Zorita ◽  
Birgit Hünicke
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. The main purpose of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric factors to recent off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea on interannual timescales. For this purpose, we statistically analysed sea-level records from tide gauges and satellite altimetry and several climatic data sets covering the last century. Previous studies had concluded that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main pattern of atmospheric variability affecting sea level in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in wintertime. However, we identify a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely connected to sea-level variability than the NAO. This circulation pattern displays a link to sea level that remains stable through the 20th century, in contrast to the much more variable link between sea level and the NAO. We denote this atmospheric variability mode as the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index. The sea-level pressure (SLP) BANOS pattern displays an SLP dipole with centres of action located over (5° W, 45° N) and (20° E, 70° N) and this is distinct from the standard NAO SLP pattern in wintertime. In summertime, the discrepancy between the SLP BANOS and NAO patterns becomes clearer, with centres of action of the former located over (30° E, 45° N) and (20° E, 60° N). This index has a stronger connection to off-shore sea-level variability in the study area than the NAO in wintertime for the period 1993–2013, explaining locally up to 90 % of the interannual sea-level variance in winter and up to 79 % in summer. The eastern part of the Gulf of Finland is the area where the BANOS index is most sensitive to sea level in wintertime, whereas the Gulf of Riga is the most sensitive region in summertime. In the North Sea region, the maximum sea-level sensitivity to the BANOS pattern is located in the German Bight for both winter and summer seasons. We investigated, and when possible quantified, the contribution of several physical mechanisms which may explain the link between the sea-level variability and the atmospheric pattern described by the BANOS index. These mechanisms include the inverse barometer effect (IBE), freshwater balance, net energy surface flux and wind-induced water transport. We found that the most important mechanism is the IBE in both wintertime and summertime. Assuming a complete equilibration of seasonal sea level to the SLP gradients over this region, the IBE can explain up to 88 % of the sea-level variability attributed to the BANOS index in wintertime and 34 % in summertime. The net energy flux at the surface is found to be an important factor for the variation of sea level, explaining 35 % of sea-level variance in wintertime and a very small amount in summer. The freshwater flux could only explain 27 % of the variability in summertime and a negligible part in winter. In contrast to the NAO, the direct wind forcing associated with the SLP BANOS pattern does not lead to transport of water from the North Sea into the Baltic Sea in wintertime.

Model based assessment of drift and fate of marine micro plastics in the Baltic Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jens Murawski ◽  
Jun She ◽  
Vilnis Frishfelds
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Particle Surface ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Plastic Pollution ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
Biofilm Growth ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Baltic

<p>Marine micro plastic is a growing problem, because of its ability to accumulate in the environment. Reliable data of drift patterns and accumulation zones are required to estimate environmental impacts on natural protected areas, spawning areas and vulnerable habitats. H2020 project CLAIM (Cleaning Litter by developing and Applying Innovative Methods) uses model based assessments to improve the knowledge on marine pathways, sources and sinks of land emitted plastic pollution. The assessment follows a systematic approach, to derive reliable emission values for coastal sources, and to model drift and deposition pattern of micro plastics from multiple sources: car tyres, cosmetic products. A 3D modelling tool has been developed, that includes all relevant key processes, i.e. currents and wave induced transport, biofilm growth on the particle surface, sinking and sedimentation. Core engine is the HBM ocean circulation model, which has been set-up for the Baltic Sea in high resolution of 900m. Multi-years-studies (2013-2019) were performed to evaluate seasonal drift pattern and accumulation zones. Highest micro plastic concentrations were found in coastal waters, near major release locations, but transport related offshore pattern can be found as well. These follow the major pathways of deeper sea transport, but are controlled by the seasonal dynamic of biofilm growth and sinking. We introduce the model and all relevant key processes. Seasonal drift pattern are discusses in detail. Validation results in the Gulf of Riga and the Gulf of Finland provide an overview of the quality of the model to predict the distribution of micro plastics. The study includes the assessment of mitigation scenarios, of 30% micro plastic load reductions. The impacts on the ocean levels of micro plastic concentrations are studied in detail.  </p><p> </p><p> </p>

Towards operational NEMO model for the Baltic Sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuomas Kärnä ◽  
Jonni Lehtiranta ◽  
Laura Tuomi
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Ice Coverage ◽  
The Baltic

<p>We are developing a new operational circulation model for the Baltic Sea using NEMO v4.0. The model configuration is derived from the NEMO v3.6 1 nmi NemoNordic setup (Hordoir et al., Geoscientific Model Development, 2019). A pre-operational version of the model has been implemented to produce daily forecasts of water level, temperature, salinity, and currents, as well as sea ice coverage. In this poster we present model validation for a two-year hindcast simulation. The results indicate that daily and seasonal variability of water levels and sea surface salinity are well captured. Sea ice coverage is well represented, although slightly over-estimated. Comparisons at several mooring locations show realistic vertical salinity structure, and verify that the model can simulate Baltic inflow events. Overall, the model skill has significantly improved compared to previous operational models.</p>

scholarly journals Sea-ice evaluation of NEMO-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO–LIM3.6-based ocean–sea-ice model setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 3105-3123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Pemberton ◽  
Ulrike Löptien ◽  
Robinson Hordoir ◽  
Anders Höglund ◽  
Semjon Schimanke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea in northern Europe with intense wintertime ship traffic and a sensitive ecosystem. Understanding and modeling the evolution of the sea-ice pack is important for climate effect studies and forecasting purposes. Here we present and evaluate the sea-ice component of a new NEMO–LIM3.6-based ocean–sea-ice setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region (NEMO-Nordic). The setup includes a new depth-based fast-ice parametrization for the Baltic Sea. The evaluation focuses on long-term statistics, from a 45-year long hindcast, although short-term daily performance is also briefly evaluated. We show that NEMO-Nordic is well suited for simulating the mean sea-ice extent, concentration, and thickness as compared to the best available observational data set. The variability of the annual maximum Baltic Sea ice extent is well in line with the observations, but the 1961–2006 trend is underestimated. Capturing the correct ice thickness distribution is more challenging. Based on the simulated ice thickness distribution we estimate the undeformed and deformed ice thickness and concentration in the Baltic Sea, which compares reasonably well with observations.

scholarly journals Sea-ice evaluation of NEMO-Nordic 1.0: a NEMO–LIM3.6 based ocean–sea ice model setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Pemberton ◽  
Ulrike Löptien ◽  
Robinson Hordoir ◽  
Anders Höglund ◽  
Semjon Schimanke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice covered marginal sea in northern Europe with intense wintertime ship traffic and a sensitive ecosystem. Understanding and modeling the evolution of the sea-ice pack is important for climate effect studies and forecasting purposes. Here we present and evaluate the sea-ice component of a new NEMO–LIM3.6 based ocean–sea ice setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region. The setup includes a new depth-based fast ice parametrization for the Baltic Sea. The evaluation focuses on long-term statistics, from a 45-year long hindcast, although short-term daily performance is also briefly evaluated. Different sea-ice metrics such as sea-ice extent, concentration and thickness are compared to the best available observational dataset to identify model biases. Overall the model agrees well with the observations in terms of the long-term mean sea-ice extent and thickness. The variability of the annual maximum Baltic Sea ice extent is well in line with the observations but the 1961–2006 trend is underestimated. Based on the simulated ice thickness distribution we estimate the undeformed and deformed ice thickness and concentration in the Baltic Sea, which compares reasonably well with observations. We conclude that the new North Sea/Baltic Sea ocean–sea ice setup is well suited for further climate studies and sea ice forecasts.

Basin-scale granular ice dynamics modelling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonni Lehtiranta
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Length Scales ◽  
The North ◽  
Acceleration Techniques ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Ice Floes ◽  
The Baltic

<p>Current operational sea ice models solve primitive equations on a grid and treat sea ice as a continuum with smoothly varying properties. This is the same method that is used in ocean models. The continuum assumption is unrealistic for sea ice which consists of separate rigid ice floes. The assumption works best for length scales much larger than typical floe size, and worst for very small length scales.</p><p>Winter shipping in finnish ports depends on timely sea ice information on the Baltic Sea. Due to climate change, the yearly ice covered area and thermodynamic ice growth are decreasing. However, sea ice is also becoming more mobile and dynamic, especially in the Bay of Bothnia which lies in the north end of the Baltic Sea.</p><p>A particle-based granular approach is more realistic in the length scales of individual ice floes. Such models have been developed (eg. by Mark Hopkins and Agnieszka Herman) and used successfully in limited scales, such as fjords. For larger horizontal scales, they have been computationally too expensive. Using modern GPU acceleration techniques, discrete element simulation of sea ice is becoming possible in the scale required for Baltic sea basins.</p><p>This work presents an ongoing project for building a granular sea ice model for forecasting ice dynamics. This includes ice movement and deformation and describes ridge and lead formation and similar phenomena. Existing accelerated solvers are examined, and the most suitable is adapted for Baltic sea ice and applied for the Bay of Bothnia.</p>

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