scholarly journals Rainfall-induced shallow landslides and soil wetness: comparison of physically based and probabilistic predictions

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 5937-5950
Author(s):  
Elena Leonarduzzi ◽  
Brian W. McArdell ◽  
Peter Molnar
Keyword(s):  
Soil Depth ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Landslide Prediction ◽  
Infinite Slope ◽  
Antecedent Conditions ◽  
Alpine Regions ◽  
Soil Saturation ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Soil Wetness

Abstract. Landslides are an impacting natural hazard in alpine regions, calling for effective forecasting and warning systems. Here we compare two methods (physically based and probabilistic) for the prediction of shallow rainfall-induced landslides in an application to Switzerland, with a specific focus on the value of antecedent soil wetness. First, we show that landslide susceptibility predicted by the factor of safety in the infinite slope model is strongly dependent on soil data inputs, limiting the hydrologically active range where landslides can occur to only ∼20 % of the country with typical soil parameters and soil depth models, not accounting for uncertainty. Second, we find the soil saturation estimate provided by a conceptual hydrological model (PREVAH) to be more informative for landslide prediction than that estimated by the physically based coarse-resolution model (TerrSysMP), which we attribute to the lack of temporal variability and coarse spatial resolution in the latter. Nevertheless, combining the soil water state estimates in TerrSysMP with the infinite slope approach improves the separation between landslide triggering and non-triggering rainfall events. Third, we demonstrate the added value of antecedent soil saturation in combination with rainfall thresholds. We propose a sequential threshold approach, where events are first split into dry and wet antecedent conditions by an N d (day) antecedent soil saturation threshold, and then two different total rainfall–duration threshold curves are estimated. This, among all different approaches explored, is found to be the most successful for landslide prediction.

scholarly journals Rainfall-induced shallow landslides and soil wetness: comparison of physically-based and probabilistic predictions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Leonarduzzi ◽  
Brian W. McArdell ◽  
Peter Molnar
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Infinite Slope ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
Infinite Slope Stability Model ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Soil Wetness ◽  
Parameter Constraints

Abstract. Landslides are an impacting natural hazard in alpine regions, calling for effective forecasting and warning systems. Here we compare two methods (physically-based and probabilistic) for the prediction of shallow rainfall-induced landslides in an application to Switzerland, with a specific focus on the value of antecedent soil wetness. First, we show that landslide susceptibility predicted by the factor of safety in the infinite slope model is strongly dependent on soil data inputs, limiting the hydrologically active range where landslides can occur to only ~20 % of the area with typical soil parameters and soil depth models. Second, the physically-based approach with a coarse resolution model setup (TerrSysMP) 12.5 km × 12.5 km downscaled to 25 m × 25 m with the TopographicWetness Index to provide water table simulations for the infinite slope stability model did not succeed in predicting local scale landsliding satisfactorily, despite spatial downscaling. We argue that this is due to inadequacies of the infinite slope model, soil parameter uncertainty, and the coarse resolution of the hydrological model. Third, soil saturation estimates provided by a higher resolution 500 m × 500 m conceptual hydrological model (PREVAH) provided added value to rainfall threshold curves for landslide prediction in the probabilistic approach, with potential to reduce false alarms and misses. We conclude that although combined physically-based hydrological-geotechnical modelling is the desired goal, we still need to overcome problems of model resolution, parameter constraints, and landslide validation for successful prediction at regional scales.

scholarly journals Improvement of shallow landslide prediction accuracy using soil parameterisation for a granite area in South Korea

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 227-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. S. Kim ◽  
Y. Onda ◽  
J. K. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Roc Analysis ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Triaxial Compression ◽  
Friction Angle ◽  
Shallow Landslide ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Landslide Prediction ◽  
Soil Thickness ◽  
Accuracy Of Prediction ◽  
Experimental Soil

Abstract. SHALSTAB model applied to shallow landslides induced by rainfall to evaluate soil properties related with the effect of soil depth for a granite area in Jinbu region, Republic of Korea. Soil depth measured by a knocking pole test and two soil parameters from direct shear test (a and b) as well as one soil parameters from a triaxial compression test (c) were collected to determine the input parameters for the model. Experimental soil data were used for the first simulation (Case I) and, soil data represented the effect of measured soil depth and average soil depth from soil data of Case I were used in the second (Case II) and third simulations (Case III), respectively. All simulations were analysed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to determine the accuracy of prediction. ROC analysis results for first simulation showed the low ROC values under 0.75 may be due to the internal friction angle and particularly the cohesion value. Soil parameters calculated from a stochastic hydro-geomorphological model were applied to the SHALSTAB model. The accuracy of Case II and Case III using ROC analysis showed higher accuracy values rather than first simulation. Our results clearly demonstrate that the accuracy of shallow landslide prediction can be improved when soil parameters represented the effect of soil thickness.

scholarly journals Sensitivity and Performance Analyses of the Distributed Hydrology–Soil–Vegetation Model Using Geomorphons for Landform Mapping

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2032
Author(s):  
Pâmela A. Melo ◽  
Lívia A. Alvarenga ◽  
Javier Tomasella ◽  
Carlos R. Mello ◽  
Minella A. Martins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Vegetation Model ◽  
Landform Classification ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Streamflow Simulation

Landform classification is important for representing soil physical properties varying continuously across the landscape and for understanding many hydrological processes in watersheds. Considering it, this study aims to use a geomorphology map (Geomorphons) as an input to a physically based hydrological model (Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM)) in a mountainous headwater watershed. A sensitivity analysis of five soil parameters was evaluated for streamflow simulation in each Geomorphons feature. As infiltration and saturation excess overland flow are important mechanisms for streamflow generation in complex terrain watersheds, the model’s input soil parameters were most sensitive in the “slope”, “hollow”, and “valley” features. Thus, the simulated streamflow was compared with observed data for calibration and validation. The model performance was satisfactory and equivalent to previous simulations in the same watershed using pedological survey and moisture zone maps. Therefore, the results from this study indicate that a geomorphologically based map is applicable and representative for spatially distributing hydrological parameters in the DHSVM.

scholarly journals Shallow Landslides Physically Based Susceptibility Assessment Improvement Using InSAR. Case Study: Carpathian and Subcarpathian Prahova Valley, Romania

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2385
Author(s):  
Iuliana Armaș ◽  
Mihaela Gheorghe ◽  
George Cătălin Silvaș
Keyword(s):  
Slope Failure ◽  
Surface Displacement ◽  
Unit Weight ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Infinite Slope ◽  
Actual Surface ◽  
Infinite Slope Stability Model ◽  
Physically Based

A multi-temporal satellite radar interferometry technique is used for deriving the actual surface displacement patterns in a slope environment in Romania, in order to validate and improve a landslide susceptibility map. The probability the occurrence of future events is established using a deterministic approach based on a classical one-dimension infinite slope stability model. The most important geotechnical parameters for slope failure in the proposed study area are cohesion, unit weight and friction angle, and the triggering factor is a rapid rise in groundwater table under wetting conditions. Employing a susceptibility analysis using the physically based model under completely saturated conditions proved to be the most suitable scenario for identifying unstable areas. The kinematic characteristics are assessed by the Small BAseline Subsets (SBAS) interferometry technique applied to C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Sentinel-1 imagery. The analysis was carried out mainly for inhabited areas which present a better backscatter return. The validation revealed that more than 22% of the active landslides identified by InSAR were predicted as unstable areas by the infinite slope model. We propose a refinement of the susceptibility map using the InSAR results for unravelling the danger of the worst-case scenario.

scholarly journals Landslide and debris flow susceptibility zonation using TRIGRS for the 2011 Seoul landslide event

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 2547-2587 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Park ◽  
N. V. Nikhil ◽  
S. R. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Slope Stability Analysis ◽  
Flow Paths ◽  
Infinite Slope ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
Landslide Event ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Pore Pressure Response

Abstract. This paper presents the results from application of a regional, physically-based stability model: Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis (TRIGRS) for a catchment on Woomyeon Mountain, Seoul, Korea. This model couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution to predict the transient pore pressure response to the infiltration of rainfall. TRIGRS also adopts the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework for determining the whole behaviour of a slope. In this paper, we suggest an index for evaluating the results produced by the model. Particular attention is devoted to the prediction of routes of debris flow, using a runoff module. In this context, the paper compares observed landslide and debris flow events with those predicted by the TRIGRS model. The TRIGRS model, originally developed to predict shallow landslides, has been extended in this study for application to debris flows. The results predicted by the TRIGRS model are presented as safety factor (FS) maps corresponding to transient rainfall events, and in terms of debris flow paths using methods proposed by several researchers in hydrology. In order to quantify the accuracy of the model, we proposed an index called LRclass (landslide ratio for each predicted FS class). The LRclass index is mainly applied in regions where the landslide scar area is not well defined (or is unknown), in order to avoid over-estimation of the model results. The use of the TRIGRS routing module was proposed to predict the paths of debris flow, especially in areas where the rheological properties and erosion rates of the materials are difficult to obtain. Although an improvement in accuracy is needed, this module is very useful for preliminary spatiotemporal assessment over wide areas. In summary, the TRIGRS model is a powerful tool of use to decision makers for susceptibility mapping, particularly when linked with various advanced applications using GIS spatial functions.

A regionally explicit, global SWI calibration based on ISMN observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manolis G. Grillakis
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
European Space Agency ◽  
Soil Layer ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Water Index ◽  
Soil Moisture Data

<p>Remote sensing has proven to be an irreplaceable tool for monitoring soil moisture. The European Space Agency (ESA), through the Climate Change Initiative (CCI), has provided one of the most substantial contributions in the soil water monitoring, with almost 4 decades of global satellite derived and homogenized soil moisture data for the uppermost soil layer. Yet, due to the inherent limitations of many of the remote sensors, only a limited soil depth can be monitored. To enable the assessment of the deeper soil layer moisture from surface remotely sensed products, the Soil Water Index (SWI) has been established as a convolutive transformation of the surface soil moisture estimation, under the assumption of uniform hydraulic conductivity and the absence of transpiration. The SWI uses a single calibration parameter, the T-value, to modify its response over time.</p><p>Here the Soil Water Index (SWI) is calibrated using ESA CCI soil moisture against in situ observations from the International Soil Moisture Network and then use Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to find the best physical soil, climate, and vegetation descriptors at a global scale to regionalize the calibration of the T-value. The calibration is then used to assess a root zone related soil moisture for the period 2001 – 2018.</p><p>The results are compared against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ERA5 Land reanalysis soil moisture dataset, showing a good agreement, mainly over mid-latitudes. The results indicate that there is added value to the results of the machine learning calibration, comparing to the uniform T-value. This work contributes to the exploitation of ESA CCI soil moisture data, while the produced data can support large scale soil moisture related studies.</p>

scholarly journals Mapping Landslide Prediction through a GIS-Based Model: A Case Study in a Catchment in Southern Italy

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 309
Author(s):  
Federico Valerio Moresi ◽  
Mauro Maesano ◽  
Alessio Collalti ◽  
Roy C. Sidle ◽  
Giorgio Matteucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Shallow Landslides ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Infinite Slope ◽  
South Italy ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Root Strength ◽  
Forested Areas ◽  
Forest Mountain

Shallow landslides are an increasing concern in Italy and worldwide because of the frequent association with vegetation management. As vegetation cover plays a fundamental role in slope stability, we developed a GIS-based model to evaluate the influence of plant roots on slope safety, and also included a landslide susceptibility map. The GIS-based model, 4SLIDE, is a physically based predictor for shallow landslides that combines geological, topographical, and hydrogeological data. The 4SLIDE combines the infinite slope model, TOPMODEL (for the estimation of the saturated water level), and a vegetation root strength model, which facilitates prediction of locations that are more susceptible for shallow landslides as a function of forest cover. The aim is to define the spatial distribution of Factor of Safety (FS) in steep-forested areas. The GIS-based model 4SLIDE was tested in a forest mountain watershed located in the Sila Greca (Cosenza, Calabria, South Italy) where almost 93% of the area is covered by forest. The sensitive ROC analysis (Receiver Operating Characteristic) indicates that the model has good predictive capability in identifying the areas sensitive to shallow landslides. The localization of areas at risk of landslides plays an important role in land management activities because landslides are among the most costly and dangerous hazards.

scholarly journals Partitioning snowmelt and rainfall in the critical zone: effects of climate type and soil properties

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 3553-3570 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Hammond ◽  
Adrian A. Harpold ◽  
Sydney Weiss ◽  
Stephanie K. Kampf
Keyword(s):  
Soil Properties ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Deep Drainage ◽  
Deep Soil ◽  
Climate Type ◽  
Event Scale ◽  
Antecedent Moisture ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Dry Climates

Abstract. Streamflow generation and deep groundwater recharge may be vulnerable to loss of snow, making it important to quantify how snowmelt is partitioned between soil storage, deep drainage, evapotranspiration, and runoff. Based on previous findings, we hypothesize that snowmelt produces greater streamflow and deep drainage than rainfall and that this effect is greatest in dry climates. To test this hypothesis we examine how snowmelt and rainfall partitioning vary with climate and soil properties using a physically based variably saturated subsurface flow model, HYDRUS-1D. We developed model experiments using observed climate from mountain regions and artificial climate inputs that convert all precipitation to rain, and then evaluated how climate variability affects partitioning in soils with different hydraulic properties and depths. Results indicate that event-scale runoff is higher for snowmelt than for rainfall due to higher antecedent moisture and input rates in both wet and dry climates. Annual runoff also increases with snowmelt fraction, whereas deep drainage is not correlated with snowmelt fraction. Deep drainage is less affected by changes from snowmelt to rainfall because it is controlled by deep soil moisture changes over longer timescales. Soil texture modifies daily wetting and drying patterns but has limited effect on annual water budget partitioning, whereas increases in soil depth lead to lower runoff and greater deep drainage. Overall these results indicate that runoff may be substantially reduced with seasonal snowpack decline in all climates, whereas the effects of snowpack decline on deep drainage are less consistent. These mechanisms help explain recent observations of streamflow sensitivity to changing snowpack and highlight the importance of developing strategies to plan for changes in water budgets in areas most at risk for shifts from snow to rain.

scholarly journals Probabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically based r.slope.stability model

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba ◽  
Martin Mergili ◽  
Edier Aristizábal
Keyword(s):  
Slope Stability ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Infinite Slope ◽  
Susceptibility Analysis ◽  
Colombian Andes ◽  
Infinite Slope Stability Model ◽  
Stability Model ◽  
Physically Based

Abstract. Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes, one of the regions most affected by landslides every year. Currently in Colombia, physically based methods for landslide hazard mapping are mandatory for land use planning in urban areas. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability, a spatially distributed, physically based model for landslide susceptibility analysis, available as an open-source tool coupled to GRASS GIS. This model considers alternatively the infinite slope stability model or the 2.5D geometry of shallow planar and deep-seated landslides with ellipsoidal or truncated failure surfaces. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment. Finally, the model results are evaluated against a landslide inventory using a confusion matrix and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The model performs reasonably well, the infinite slope stability model showing a better performance. The outcomes are, however, rather conservative, pointing to possible challenges with regard to the geotechnical and geo-hydraulic parameterization. The results also highlight the importance to perform probabilistic instead of – or in addition to – deterministic slope stability analyses.

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